Risk and Profit Conference

2024 Breakout Sessions SCHEDULE

1. Why Do We Have a Farm Safety Net?

Jenny Ifft

The US farm safety net consists of: 1) the Federal Crop Insurance program; 2) Commodity/Title 1 programs (ARC/PLC); and 3) Standing and ad hoc disaster programs. This session will be slide-free, open-ended, and unrecorded. The discussion will be based on audience interests related to  the "what, where, why, when, and how" of the current farm safety net. Potential discussion questions include: What are the economic and social justifications for our current farm safety net? Is the farm safety net too big or not big enough?  Is reform desirable or even possible? 

2. Macroeconomic Outlook

Brian Briggeman

Higher interest rates have significantly impacted the agricultural industry. It appears that the Federal Reserve’s historically rapid increase of interest rates has somewhat cooled inflation. However, could inflation rebound? What about the future path of interest rates? Is a U.S. recession still on the horizon? What are the factors that could influence these events? We will discuss these questions as well as address your questions on the future of the macroeconomy and how it could affect agriculture.

3. Kansas Farm Income and Conservation Practices

Delide Joseph, Jenny Ifft

Over the past winter, more than 600 Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) members provided information on their adoption of multiple conservation practices. In this presentation, we will summarize the prevalence of conservation practices by region, farm size, and operator age. We will also show results of an analysis of the relationship of conservation practices with yields, expenses, and profits. This analysis will account for intensity and timing of adoption.

4. A Projection of Net Farm Income for 2024 and 2025

Gregg Ibendahl

This session will discuss the projected net farm income for 2024 as well as the prospects for 2025. Included in the discussion will be an estimate for corn and soybean yields for the state.

5. Kansas Water Management Challenges and U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program

Jenny Ifft, Sam Zipper

Crop insurance provides a critical safety net for Kansas producers. In many parts of the state, irrigation water is also critical for both agricultural production and maintaining local economies and communities. As such, crop insurance is an important part of broader ongoing discussions and efforts to address water management challenges.  This presentation will provide examples of ongoing work in this area, including  water management during droughts for insured crops and options for insuring crops that use less water. Open questions and new research and extension initiatives will also be discussed.

6. Farming Together: A Transition Planning Discussion

Ashlee Westerhold, David Kehler

After working with six families through a financial analysis during their succession planning process, we will discuss how families are supporting both families in a transition process or why they are not able to support two families in this process. We will discuss some dos and don’ts when it comes to working with family members, how to handle the financial side of the business when in the transition process, and what some findings are from our analyses.

7. Effects of Production Diversification on Net Farm Income: Evidence from Kansas

Priyanka Sharma, Aleksan Shanoyan

This study examines the relationship between crop diversification and farm financial resilience through two-way fixed effects. Analyzing data from farms in Kansas across counties, our results suggest potential relationships between farm income and variables indicating crop diversification, farm size, and other farm financial ratios. Our findings, while indicative, point towards more nuanced strategies that could benefit farm financial sustainability and economic viability.

8. Long-Term Strategic Risk on Your Farm

Brady Brewer

Dig into strategic risk management for farm businesses in this session. This session will discuss what strategic risks are and how to start thinking about your farm's ability to withstand shocks. It will also be discussed important it can be to identify and capture the business opportunities that sometimes accompany a shock to the operating environment. While we discuss risks in agriculture a lot such as drought or price risk, strategic risks are much harder to plan for but have lasting implications for your farm.

9. 2024 Farm Income Tax Update

Kellen Liebsch

Updates to federal and state income tax for 2024, including depreciation. A brief look will also be included on retirement plan contributions, tax credits, and other items pertaining to the potential expiration/extension/reform of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).

10. The Economics Of Equipment Purchasing: What You Should Consider Before Buying New Equipment

Brady Brewer

Machinery and equipment comprise a large part of a farmer’s balance sheet. These purchases also impact bottom line profitability more than just the cost of the equipment. Labor, managerial time, decision making, and complementary equipment are examples of items that need to be analyzed to understand the impacts a new piece of equipment will have on profitability. This session will discuss the economics of buying new equipment and how what you should consider before buying your next piece of equipment.

11. U.S. Feedlot Adoption of Enteric Methane Emission Mitigating Technology

Jaime Luke, Glynn Tonsor

U.S. beef producers have been experiencing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from production. Technologies have been developed to do so, but limited economic incentives exist to spur adoption. This session will discuss the incentives needed for feedlot adoption of methane-mitigating feed additives as determined by data collected from U.S. feedlot owners and operators.

12. Meat Demand: Insights from the Mead Demand Monitor

Glynn Tonsor

In this session, Dr. Tonsor will overview the beef and pork checkoff-supported Meat Demand Monitor (MDM) project.  A focus on recent trends and insights will be provided along with an illustration of how to use the available data visualization tools.

13. Economic Findings from National Corn Grower Association Yield Contest Entries:  Crop Nutrients, Genetics, Equipment, and Plant Protection

Joe Parcell, Alice Roach, Bryston Warren, Jenny Ifft

It’s exciting to learn of the annual state and national corn yield champions. Who hasn’t wondered what level of inputs and management practices were used to achieve these yields. Using 20,000 contest entries, we examine how inputs, equipment, and management impact yield level. We explore if findings offer economic inferences to produce economically viable corn yields.

14. Beef Quality Enhancements: Exploring the Market Dynamics and Economic Implications

Katy Doumit, Ted Schroeder

The quality and value of beef cattle has dramatically evolved over time. Despite ongoing concerns over market transparency and price discovery, the industry has transitioned towards Alternative Marketing Agreements (AMAs) representing the increased importance of value-based marketing. As premium beef quality is incentivized, there has been a corresponding increase in the percentage of US fed cattle grading Choice and Prime. This session will explore industry trends regarding premiums and discounts, quantify the impact of AMAs on cattle quality, and evaluate economic implications of the evolving industry across the fed cattle marketing chain.

15. Space Weather Impact on GPS: What Happened on May 10 and How Will It Affect Farm Profitability

Terry Griffin

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as the American Global Positioning System (GPS) have become an integral part of agricultural technology since the 1990s. Farm operations relying upon GPS (i.e., navigation, automated row shutoffs, or variable rate input applications), during radio blackouts are likely to experience yield and revenue penalties. Natural phenomena leading up to the events on May 10 are described before discussing the production, profitability, and farm data implications of the outage. Since May 10th, a new question has been getting economists thinking: How will the GPS outage associated with the geomagnetic solar storm affect US farm profitability during the 2024 cropping season? The answer, as usual, is that it depends, especially on who, what, where, and when. The GPS outage occurred during planting season (when) for many crops across the heartland (where). In 2024, farm operations have become more reliant upon GPS technology (what) than at any other time in history. Some farm operations were more vulnerable to the GPS outage than others (who). Once automated guidance became available, planters and other field equipment became wider due to less reliance on human equipment operators and physical row markers; however, reliance on technology exposes farmers to downtime risk due to GPS outage vulnerability.

16. Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on Grain and Oilseed Production and International Trade

Antonina Broyaka

Ukraine was always known as world’s “bread basket”. Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused not only a humanitarian, economic, and ecological crisis in the Black Sea region, but also increased food insecurity globally. Disruption of logistics channels, increased inputs cost, insufficient supply of fertilizers, and the mining of a significant amount of territories led to a reduction in production and, as a consequence, in exports of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds. This directly affected the structure of world agricultural markets and food prices. However, despite military actions, Ukrainian farmers continue to sow and export agricultural products. At the same time, Russia is trying to seize leadership in the world grain and oilseeds markets, thereby strengthening its political influence on import-dependent countries. Further updates on the situation in the Black Sea region and changes in world grain and oilseeds markets will be provided during this session.

17. Understanding Wheat Basis in Kansas

Allen Featherstone, Shayna DeGroot

Wheat basis is defined as the cash price minus the futures price.  A positive basis indicates the cash price is greater than the futures price.  Basis will be analyzed for the previous 10 years for seven regions in Kansas.  In addition, models were estimated to understand the variables that statistically impact basis.

18. Impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Farm Profitability and Survival

Jiyeon Kim, Jisang Yu

U.S. agriculture has been experiencing increases in its exports to foreign markets in the last three decades due to global trade liberalization. Specifically, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) boosted agricultural trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico by eliminating barriers to trade. Better accessibility to the global market may lead to gain or lose for U.S. agricultural producers. In this presentation, we discuss how trade exposures influence the survival of farms by affecting profitability, focusing on the case of NAFTA. We find that trade exposure positively impacts farm profit in the short term after implementing NAFTA. In addition, we find that greater export exposure leads to a decrease in the rate of farm exit.

19. Situation and Outlook for Energy and Biofuels

Gregg Ibendahl, Daniel O'Brien

In this session, we discuss current oil, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel energy use and the prospects for growth in the biofuels usage.

20. The Performance of the Food Manufacturing Industry in Kansas

Abena Damuah, Vincent Amanor-Boadu

Over the past decades, the U.S. food manufacturing industry has experienced substantial changes in its structure and performance. This study uses the US Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Manufacturers from 1998 to 2019 to evaluate the changes in the structure and performance of the food manufacturing industry in Kansas. The study is important because the food manufacturing industry accounts for 21% of Kansas’ manufacturing sector, and its structural and performance changes can have significant upstream and downstream effects in the agricultural sector as well as across Kansas's economy. Findings indicate that while the animal slaughtering and processing sector is the largest employer within Kansas's food manufacturing industry, it has experienced a decline in employment and records the lowest gross margin at 0.16. In contrast, the other food manufacturing sector boasts higher profitability, with the highest gross margin reaching 0.92. Overall, the food manufacturing industry in Kansas maintains a gross margin of 0.27, suggesting varied sectoral performance. These results underscore significant trends and forecast implications for future industry developments within Kansas.

21. Is a Yield Slowdown on the Horizon? Assessing the Relationship Between Yield and Plant Population in U.S Corn

Ed Perry, Amanda Tian

Ensuring an adequate food supply for a growing world population is among the most important policy goals for the 21st century. Rising corn productivity has been essential for this objective. Since the introduction of hybrid maize, U.S. corn yields have increased at the rate of about 1.8 bu/acre/year. Concomitantly, corn plant populations (plants/acre) more than doubled. Thus, the remarkable increase in yields has primarily taken the form of more plants/acre, rather than more yield/plant. However, in recent years, plant populations have plateaued in many regions, and yield growth seems to have slowed. In this session, we discuss the future of corn productivity and whether we are in the midst of a slowdown.

22. Population Growth and Food: Resurrecting Reverend Malthus in the 21st Century and Its Implications For Farmers And Ranchers

Vincent Amanor-Boadu

Incomes have been increasing around the world for the past 50 years or more. At the same time there has been significant improvements in the dietary intake of the majority of the world's populations. These two factors have contributed to aggressive forecast of global populations from many reputable institutions. These forecasts have led to policy conversations that promise to alter the pathway of economic growth and stability around the world. Yet, historical indicators of increasing incomes suggest alternative potential outcomes for population growth forecasts. However, the appeal of these doomsday predictions and prophetism is intoxicating for many policymakers and their risk of becoming policy is frightening.

In this paper, we identify some of the erroneous assumptions supporting these population and resource forecasts and challenge the policy recommendations emanating from them. We frame our analysis within the context of the agri-food sector, emphasizing food production and strategies that U.S. farmers and ranchers may pursue to ensure their ability to sustain their long term competitiveness.