Risk and Profit Conference

2021 Conference is tentatively scheduled for August 19-20, 2021 at the K-State Alumni Center. 

Questions? Rich Llewelyn at rvl@ksu.edu or 785.532.1504.

Dates & Location

ONLINE - Zoom

ONLINE - Zoom
Questions? Rich Llewelyn at rvl@ksu.edu or 785.532.1504.
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PDF icon Session Summaries and Schedule166.83 KB
Schedule

Monday, August 10
     Session 1 (12:00-12:45): Hedging the Sale of Kansas Live Cattle: A Review of the Past 10 Years - Brian Coffey
     Session 2 (12:45-1:30): Ag Finance Situation - Allen Featherstone

Tuesday, August 11
     Session 1 (12:00-12:45): Macroeconomy, Interest Rates, and Future Inflation  - Brian Briggeman
     Session 2 (12:45-1:30): US Agri-Food Trade and COVID-19 - Vincent Amanor-Boadu, Kara Ross, Catherine Ofori-Bah

Wednesday, August 12
     Session 1 (12:00-12:45): Crop Share or Cash Rent: How Does Risk Affect the Decision?-Mykel Taylor, Chelsea Arnold
     Session 2 (12:45-1:30): Assessment of Ag’s Contribution to the Kansas Economy - John Leatherman, Jody Wendt

Thursday, August 13
     Session 1 (10:30-11:15): Livestock Market Outlook—Glynn Tonsor
     Session 2 (11:15-12:00): Grain Market Outlook—Dan O’Brien
     Break/Lunch (12:00-12:30): Open Chat with K-State Agricultural Economics Extensions Specialists
     Session 3 (12:30-1:15): Nontraditional Finance: Overview and Trends - Jenny Ifft
     Session 4 (1:15-2:00): Projections of Net Farm Income for 2020 and 2021 - Gregg Ibendahl

Friday, August 14
     Session 1 (12:00-12:45): Economic Losses From ARC/PLC Election In 2014 Farm Bill - Nathan Hendricks, Mary Kurzweil
     Session 2 (12:45-1:30): International Grain Market Trends and Factors  - Guy Allen, Dan O’Brien

Speakers

 

 

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Session Summaries

Monday, August 10

Session 1: 12:00-12:45 - Hedging the Sale of Kansas Live Cattle: A Review of the Past Ten Years - Brian Coffey
We will compare outcomes of marketing live cattle using a disciplined hedging program versus no hedging. Emphasis will be given to the way in which hedging allows producers to better predict net price received. We will also spend time looking at how hedging can protect against catastrophic losses, using the August 2019 Holcomb, KS plant fire and the COVID-19 disruption of spring 2020 as examples.

Session 2: 12:45-1:30 - Ag Finance Situation - Allen Featherstone
Farm income was up in 2019 from 2018 levels allowing a strengthening of the farmer’s balance sheet.  This session will look at the financial situation of Kansas farmers heading into the pandemic.  The situation will also provide insight from a lender survey conducted in the May time period regarding perceptions moving forward. 


Tuesday, August 11

Session 1: 12:00-12:45 - Macroeconomy, Interest Rates, and Future Inflation  - Brian Briggeman
Since March 2020, the U.S. economy has been on a roller coaster ride. The shutdown slashed consumption and sent many to the unemployment line. In response, fiscal and monetary policy flooded the market to bolster a faltering economy. By the summer of 2020, the economy returned to somewhat better footing. Going forward, there are a number of questions/concerns such as, what are the prospects for future inflation? In this presentation, Dr. Brian Briggeman will share his thoughts on these topics. 

Session 2: 12:45-1:30 - US Agri-Food Trade and COVID-19 - Vincent Amanor-Boadu, Kara Ross, Catherine Ofori-Bah
Public policies implemented to control the spread of COVID-19 contributed to reduction or cessation of production in the agri-food sector. Other countries also undertook similar policy initiatives, which led to the closure of their ports of entry, including air and sea ports. This study explores the trends in agri-food trade since January 2020 and compare them with the previous decade with the view of determining if COVID-19 has had any significant impact on the agri-food sector.  The results will provide foundation for conversation about how US agri-food may position itself to minimize any future external factors from disrupting its performance.


Wednesday, August 12

Session 1: 12:00-12:45 - Crop Share or Cash Rent: How Does Risk Affect the Decision?-Mykel Taylor, Chelsea Arnold
In this session, we analyze the choice people make between cash rent and crop share contracts using data from a survey of KFMA members. We find that risk attitudes of producers and landowners affect the choice and we will discuss those findings in the context of limited irrigation agreements that are likely to affect risk exposure in crop production. 

Session 2: 12:45-1:30 - Assessment of Ag’s Contribution to the Kansas Economy - John Leatherman, Jody Wendt
Estimating the contribution of industry sectors to general economic welfare presents both theoretical and methodological challenges. Here, we employ methods that avoid methodological problems such as double counting and apply economic base theory to estimate the contribution of Kansas agriculture and related industries for the state and nine substate regions. We report the agriculture and agriculture-related contributions to the state’s export base and examine the linkages to agriculture input industries and the industries agriculture supports. We report contributions to overall economic activity, income generation, households, and employment.


Thursday, August 13

Session 1: 10:30-11:15 - Livestock Market Outlook - Glynn Tonsor
This session will overview the major impacts COVID-19 has had on the beef-cattle industry so far.  Then a summary of the current market outlook and key points that may alter the industry outlook will be provided setting the stage for a Q&A exchange.

Session 2: 11:15-12:00 - Grain Market Outlook - Dan O'Brien
The outlook for grain market prices is volatile and uncertain for the remainder of 2020 and on into 2021.   While a number of factors have been affecting Kansas grain markets in recent weeks and months, the strength of corn, grain sorghum, hard red winter wheat, and soybean basis across the state is indicative of underlying grain market support.  This has occurred at a time when the broader grain futures market appears to be anticipating a “large crop – low price” scenario “across the board” moving into Fall 2020.   Domestic U.S. grain markets have been affected by the uncertainties in the U.S. economy caused by COVID-19 impacts and government / economic shut down oriented responses.   Concerning feedgrains and oilseeds, although 2020 U.S. corn and soybean acreage may be lower than anticipated – “spotty” yield prospects will be a market factor through fall harvest and especially through the September, October, November and January 2021 USDA production reports.  Bioenergy use of feedgrains and oilseeds, livestock feeding of feedgrains, and oilseed crush are all factors to watch closely as they impact U.S. supply-demand balances and prices in both futures and local cash markets.  Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies is likely to support U.S. grain exports, as is more aggressive purchasing of U.S. crops by China and other countries – especially for grain sorghum.  Soybean exports hold promise, but will be affected by prospects for large South American crops.  U.S. Wheat markets have held up decently in 2020 in spite of large domestic and World stocks, with positive export prospects in particular providing support – although “World-Less-China” market perspectives are important to consider.   In summary, absent any major U.S. crop shortfalls in 2020, prospects for U.S. corn, grain sorghum, and soybean futures prices are for “moderate” price levels heading into fall, with perhaps more opportunities for marketing profits coming from managing local grain basis variability.  Again, surprises in terms of lower than anticipated 2020 crop production could markedly affect this scenario. For Kansas wheat, export market developments and Fall 2020 establishment of the hard red winter wheat crop in Kansas and other central and southern plains states will be major market factors.  To some degree, as goes the wheat crops in the Black Sea Region among major U.S. wheat competitors, so will go export prospects for the U.S. HRW wheat crop, and price prospects.

Break/Lunch: 12:00-12:30 - Open Chat with K-State Agricultural Economics Extensions Specialists

Session 3: 12:30-1:15 - Non-Traditional Finance: Overviews and Trends - Jenny Ifft
While the majority of farms use farm credit lenders and commercial banks for their primary financing needs, the number of financing options has been expanding. This presentation will cover (1) an overview of nontraditional finance, (2) management implications, and (3) perspectives of nontraditional lenders, taking into account trade, policy and pandemic considerations. 

Session 4: 1:15-2:00 - Projections of Net Farm Income for 2020 and 2021 - Gregg Ibendahl
2020 has been a trying year for everyone and farmers are no exception. COVID-19 has disrupted supply changes and consumer demand resulting in a change in expected prices for farmers. On the input side, some inputs such as fuel and fertilizer have been decreasing during the year because of the virus. This presentation will present the results of our attempt to predict net farm income for this year and next. 2019 KFMA net farm income will be used as the baseline and revenue and expense projections will be used to adjust this baseline to make predictions about future net farm income. Wheat budgets for 2021 will be discussed and a new tool to calculate owned machinery costs per acre will also be shown.


Friday, August 14

Session 1: 12:00-12:45 - Economic Losses From ARC/PLC Election Choices in the 2014 Farm Bill - Nathan Hendricks, Mary Kurzweil
The 2014 Farm Bill required farmers to make an election between ARC and PLC for the life of the farm bill. Farmers making this decision faced uncertainty about which program could provide the greatest benefits over 5 years. We examine how payments with the elections that farmers made compare to the maximum that farmers could have received if they made an alternative choice or if they could have received the maximum of either ARC or PLC. We show where these losses were largest and for which crops the losses were largest. While the 2018 Farm Bill allows more frequent elections, farmers still face uncertainty about which program will provide the largest payment. We consider alternative methods that would provide the same government budget expenditures but not require farmers to make an election. 

Session 2: 12:45-1:30 - International Grain Market Trends and Factors - Guy Allen, Dan O'Brien
This session will examine the international grain market factors that are anticipated to affect U.S. grain markets through the remainder of year 2020 and on into 2021.   In succession World market trends in feedgrains, wheat and oilseeds will be examined by Allen and O’Brien.  The key roles of China, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine, Australia, the European Union and other countries will be considered as they impact these World markets, as well as U.S. currency exchange rates.  This session will seek to provide a “framework of perspective” with which to view the relative importance of how developments in international markets are likely to impact U.S. grain exports and market price prospects.


 

Registration information

Questions? Rich Llewelyn at rvl@ksu.edu or 785.532.1504.

Trade show

No trade show this year. See you next year. 

More information, contact Rich Llewelyn: rvl@ksu.edu or 785.532.1504 .

Directions

To Manhattan, Kansas and the K-State Alumni Center (17th & Anderson):

From the east: I-70 to exit 313. North on Hwy 177 to Ft. Riley Blvd then west to 17th Street. North (right) on 17th to Anderson Ave. 

From the west: I-70 to exit 303. North on Hwy K114/K18 (Ft. Riley Blvd) to 17th St. North (left) on 17th to Anderson.

From the north: Hwy 77 south to Seth Child Rd (Hwy 113). South on Seth Child to Anderson Ave. East (left) on Anderson to 17th St.

Hotel accomodations
Holiday Inn - Campus
 
1641 Anderson
 Manhattan, KS 66502
 785.539.7531
 Conference Rate: $99.95 + tax / night
 
Single or Double
 Rates valid August 21, 22, or 23, 2019
 Cut-Off Date: See you in 2021.
 Use Group Code:
RIS
Four Points, By Sheraton
 530 Richards Dr
 Manhattan, KS 66502
 785.587.5571
K-State Rate: $80 + tax / night
 
Single or Double
No Cut-Off Date: Ask for K-State Rate

 

Parking

There is limited parking available at the Alumni Center. If spots are available, you can park there. You will need an Alumni Center pass, which will be available as you arrive.

A campsus parking permit is included in the registration fee, for either the lot west of Old Stadium, or for the parking garage. Permits will be available on Thursday morning at the Alumni Center driveway and at the entrance to the parking lot west of the Old Stadium or at the registration table throughout the conference. You MUST obtain your conference parking permit before parking your vehicle on campus.  Hang this permit on your rearview mirror, facing the front of your vehicle.  This permit is not valid in metered lots.

  • Parking is permitted only in areas designated for parking

  • Parking is not permitted on campus streets or drives

  • Please observe HANDICAP, RESERVED and NO PARKING zones; these are TOW ZONES and violators will be towed.

  • Limited parking is available in the Alumni Parking. Be sure to get an Alumni Center parking tag from the registration desk.

  • More parking is available in the lot west of Old Stadium (across Denison Avenue), north of the Catholic Church, using the parking permit, or in the parking garage.

For more information, contact Rich Llewelyn at the phone or email below:
Phone: 785-532-1504  Email: rvl@ksu.edu