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January 1, 2006
Management
there are legal as well as other items to consider, some
of … that opening be absorbed by other positions or eliminated
altogether … perform those tasks?” In other words, if one of
the tasks …
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
52.3 mmt ending stocks and 34.05%
ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “current” MY 2016/17. The present “large crop‐over supply” situation in
World and U.S. wheat markets have a prevailing negative influence on U.S. and World wheat prices.
However, the broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be
“obscuring” at least a couple of other important market issues. First, while the quantity of wheat available in
the World is plentiful, the available supply of high protein milling wheat is less so. This factor helps exports of
both U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat (higher protein – good quality) relative to World wheat export
competitors. Second, while the aggregate supply of wheat in World markets has grown, the supply of wheat in
the “World Less China” is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” in “current crop” MY
2016/17 compared to a year ago – down to the tightest supply‐balances only marginally larger than existed in
MY 2013/14. If this “China factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available global supplies of exportable
wheat to occur in coming months, it could have a positive impact U.S. wheat market prices in late‐Spring 2017.
Even so, given the broader World wheat market’s current focus – it is likely that significant World wheat
production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices
recover significantly by spring‐summer 2017. Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate is a serious
negative factor limiting the competitive affordability of U.S. wheat exports. These factors have resulted in
higher U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and have caused U.S. and Kansas wheat cash
prices to fall sharply – down near to and below the marketing loan rate in many Kansas locations.
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: On February 23‐24, 2017 at the
Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia, the USDA released their grain market supply‐demand and
price projections for “next crop” MY 2017/18. With additional acreage and usage information the March 31st
Page | 2
USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, and the April 11th USDA World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the following projections for “next crop” MY 2017/18 are figured. For
“next crop” MY 2017/18, 2017 U.S. wheat plantings are projected to be 46.059 million acres (ma) – down from
50.154 ma in 2015. Harvested acres for 2016 are forecast to be 39.050 ma – down from 43.890 ma a year ago.
Trendline 2017 wheat yields for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac,
while the adjusted 2017 U.S. wheat production forecast is 1.839 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in
2015. Projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.118 bb (down from 3.395 bb in “current” MY
2016/17), with total use of 2.191 bb (down from 2.236 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the adjusted USDA projection of “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks equals 927
million bushels (mb) (vs 1.159 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 42.3% S/U (vs 51.8% last
year and 50.0% the previous year). United States’ wheat prices are projected to average approximately $4.25
/bu – up from $3.85 in “current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY
2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY
2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Trend Yield” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. It is assumed that there will be 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend
yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 190 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total
use, 937 mb ending stocks, 42.8% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (15% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18
the following. The following is forecast for “next crop” MY 2017/18, i.e., 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma
harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 1.150 bb exports, 190 mb feed
& residual use, 2.326 bb total use, 802 mb ending stocks, 24.10% S/U, & $4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that
the following happens. This scenario assumes 46.059 ma planted, 37.124 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac low yield,
1.485 bb production, 2.769 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 175 mb feed & residual use, 2.175 bb total use,
594 mb ending stocks, 27.31% S/U, & $5.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
July 1, 2009
Animal Well-Being
State University
2009 AAEA Meetings
Organized Symposium Presentation
July … 3.27
Farm groups 3.25 3.23
Other consumer groups 3.18 3.24
PETA … information:
AW FS
HSUS 24% 3%
Other 18% 14%
Federal governmental …
October 27, 2009
Energy
adequate supplies of corn and other feedgrains are available … greater than for total use. In other words, total use of U.S … available in the U.S. to meet ethanol
demand for the 2009/10 …
August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
KFMA Programand K‐MAR‐105 AssociationDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsKansas State University
Our goals in this session are to…Gain an improved understanding of the KFMA program and KFMA dataRemember a little history of United States farm policyExamine government farm program payments received by Kansas farmers using KFMA dataLearn, or remember, some other things from history with numbers from the KFMA dataEncourage you to: Know Your Numbers…Use Your Numbers…Reach Your Goals!
History by the Numbers: A Look at Government Farm Program Payments on Kansas Farms using KFMA Data
Kansas Farm Management Association
Program started in 1931 – …
August 22, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
they are medium priority. In other words, there is
somewhat … important relative to the other 11 skills or both.
One should … viewed as important as the other
skills or both. Developing …
May 12, 2020
Ag Law Issues
vertically integrated into other
processing stages of the … officials, municipal
officers and other non-producers to seek control … when the co-op failed to meet the Act’s organizational …
April 11, 2022
Ag Law Issues
change their operations to meet California’s standards … effect of regulating prices in other states and, as such, is
per … effect of regulating prices in other states. The appellate court …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
information about this and other leases, visit http://AgLease101.org
Rental … relationship is not acceptable for
others. The purpose of this publication … in writing. Part V cites other references that
may be helpful …
February 17, 2009
Energy
sampled to determine whether it meets the required physical quality … standards.
Assuming it meets these standards, the shelled … Corn bran is combined with other wet mill process co-products …