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April 7, 2016
Land Buying and Valuing
sold to determine impacts on price. Characteristics such as … 2015
Es
tim
at
ed
V
alu
e (
$/
ac
)
Pasture
2015 Non‐Irrigated Land Values
$2,395
$2,497
$1,620
$3,330
$2,792
$3,039
$5,564
$3,933
$3,280
2015 Pasture Land Values
$1,475
$1,538
$998
$2,052
$1,720
$1,873
$3,480
$2,423
$2,021
2015 Irrigated Land Values
$5,572
$5,810
$3,665
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‐‐‐
$7,153
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Land Price Expectations
• Actual land sales are not falling off as quickly
or dramatically as we expected
• …
January 11, 2018
Farming for the Future Presentations
2,333
18% drop in sales
Model‐Predicted Sales Price ($/ac)
Land Type 2016 2015 … Long‐run elasticity is 96.9%
At a net farm income per acre of $46, the projected long‐run Kansas (real) land price is $999, a decline of about 50%
Kansas Land Values
Red (1962‐2017)Green (1962‐2009)Purple (1962‐2003)
31.6% decline
47.6% decline
9.8% decline
Others’ Observations…
Others’ Observations
Responses to the survey from April webinar◦ …
November 10, 2016
2016 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Continued lower commodity prices
◦ crops and livestock
…
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
in Kansas
Temperature, CRP prices and heifer ratio explain …
October 1, 2018
2018 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
the increase in the
stock price and any stock dividends in … because
of lower yields or prices. This is usually not a
problem … unpredictable weather and
prices, a longer term trend of ROA
greater …
August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
Farms face volatile weather and prices• Many government program seek to reduce income volatility • …
April 16, 2020
Land Buying and Valuing
you and your business.
The price of land reflects the economic … profits from high commodity prices back into land through both … renting of farmland. Commodity
prices fell quickly beginning in …
2020 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
1,836
Averages based on pasture and cropland. Not directly comparable with model results.
Long‐Run Values
USDA Land Values 1960‐2020
USDA Land Values 1960‐2020
Market Going Forward
Resiliency in the land market, given commodity prices and economic/trade uncertainty
Interest rates to remain low through 2023
MFP made a big difference in 2018 & 2019 profitability, but is it likely to factor into long‐run expectations for land values?
More government payments infused into the land market will keep it stable, but what about the election?
Online Resources
2019 Kansas County‐Level Ag Land Values◦ …