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Grain Market Outlook
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Major Currencies, Index March 1973=100, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRED)
U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Weighted)
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I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
The USDA’s projections of 2015 U.S. wheat planted acres from the March 31st Prospective Plantings report
were adjusted upward in the USDA June 30th Acreage report, and have since been used without adjustment in
the July 10th, August 12th, and September 11th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. In the June 30,
2015 USDA Acreage report and subsequent July, August, and September Crop Production reports the USDA
has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 56.079 million acres (ma), up 712,000 acres
from 55.367 ma projected earlier in the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings report. This projection of
56.079 ma of 2015 U.S. wheat planted area is down 743,000 acres (‐1.3%) from 56.822 ma in 2014, and down
157,000 acres (‐0.3%) from 56.236 ma in 2013, but up from 55.294 ma in 2012, 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6
year low of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 3 and 4).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA left unchanged from the June 30th Acreage report its forecast of
2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings to 40.620 ma – down 131,000 acres from the USDA March 31st Prospective
Plantings report estimate, and down 1.779 ma (‐4.2%) from 42.399 ma in 2014, and down 2.610 ma (‐6.0%)
from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 29.57 ma are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat in 2015, down approximately 4% from 30.47 ma in 2014, and down marginally from 29.67 ma in 2013.
Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected to be 7.61 ma, down 10.5% from 8.50 ma in 2014,
and down 22.8% from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 4.291 ma of All White Wheat
planted, with 3.433 ma of winter white (WW) wheat (up marginally from 3.430 ma in 2014), and
approximately 858,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (up 10.3% from 787,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in
2015 amount to 13.505 ma, up 480,000 acres (+3.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, and up 1.363 ma (+11.7%) from
11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.65 ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in
2014, and up from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the USDA to be
1.954 ma in 2015, up 556,000 acres (+39.8%) from 1.398 ma in 2014, and up 554,000 acres (+39.6%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
The USDA’s projections of 2015 U.S. wheat harvested acres from the June 30th Acreage report were also
used without adjustment in the July 10th, August 12th, and September 11th USDA Crop Production and WASDE
reports. In the June 30, 2015 USDA Crop Production report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total
harvested acreage would be 48.454 million acres (ma), up 2.073 ma (+4.5%) from 46.381 ma in 2014, and up
3.122 ma (+6.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while being down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma
in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 3 and 4).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage in the U.S. was estimated to be 86.4% in 2015,
up from 81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%, median
= 84.4%) over the 2000‐2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 4). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S.
wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.6% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
Page | 5
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.329
ma – up 1.025 ma (+3.2%) from 32.304 ma in 2014, and up 0.679 ma (+2.1%) from 32.650 ma in 2013. Of this
total, 23.61 ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 7.7% from 21.92 ma in 2014,
and up from 20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 6.44 ma,
down 10.1% from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 27.8% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to
be 4.111 ma of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.277 ma of white winter (WW) wheat (up 1.7% from 3.222
ma in 2014), and approximately 834,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (up 11.3% from 749,000 acres in
2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat harvested
area in 2015 would be 13.217 ma, up 477,000 acres (+3.7%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, but up 1.873 ma
(+16.5%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.38 ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma
in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 was projected by the
USDA to be 1.908 ma in 2015, up 571,000 acres (+42.7%) from 1.337 ma in 2014, and up 570,000 acres
(+42.6%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. average wheat yields would be 44.1 bushels per acre (bu/ac) in August‐
September, down from a USDA projection of 44.3 in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May. This decrease in
projected 2015 U.S. wheat yields reflected mainly lower than expected 2015 U.S. Soft Red Winter wheat
production in the eastern Corn Belt due to problems stemming from excessive late season rain and cool
weather. This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 44.1 bu/ac is up from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than
the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (56.079 ma), harvested acreage (48.454
ma), and yield (44.1 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.136 billion bushels (bb). This
projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.136 bb in August‐September is down 12 mb from July, but up 15
mb from June, and up 49 mb from May. It is also up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2014 range of
1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 6).
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 3.014 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2015/16, resulting
from beginning stocks of 753 mb, projected 2015 production of 2.136 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb
(Table 1 and Figure 6). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in
MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY
2010/11, 2.969 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.765 bb in MY 2014/15
(up 5 mp from last month), and are now projected to be 3.014 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection of 753 mb in
beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY
2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY
2007/08.
Page | 6
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in MY 2014/15
(up 5 mb from August and the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14 (up 4 mb
from August). Since MY 1973/74 and prior to MY 2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports
have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 124 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in
MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.28 mmt
(1.076 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 25.0 mmt (919 million bushels or ‘mb’) in “new crop” MY
2015/16. The largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt were in 1986 (31.4 mmt or
1.152 bb), 1990 (32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has followed a consistent
upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated increases in demand
for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY 2015/16
follows from 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and from 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figure 7).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7). The USDA’s forecast U.S.
wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S.
wheat seed, driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage
each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources) with consideration for possible production
shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 900 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (down 25 mb from August and
down 50 mb from July) are up from 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 – the lowest amount since 879 mb in MY
2010/11 (Table 1 and Figure 7). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat
in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY
2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in
“old crop” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 900 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b)
prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That
said, 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts (between
Russian and Ukraine), and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat
production areas due to the likelihood of an “El Nino” weather pattern in the coming year, are both factors
that may eventually support increased U.S. wheat exports and at least somewhat higher World wheat prices in
the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to World
wheat production should occur in late 2015 or in 2016, such questions are seemingly being treated as non‐
factors in current World wheat export markets.
Page | 7
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through September 10th – the 16th week of the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat – have totaled 216.2 mb, which is 24.0% of the USDA’s projected “new
crop” MY 2015/16 exports of 900 mb, with 30.8% (16 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. The
“new crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United States’
wheat export shipments will need to average 19.0 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s September 11th WASDE projection of 900 mb. Wheat export
shipments by the U.S. of 13.6 mb and 19.9 mb during the weeks ending September 3rd and 10th, respectively,
are comparable to the pace (19.0 mb / week) to meet the USDA forecast of 900 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 178.2 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of September 10th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus
outstanding shipments added up to 394.4 mb (i.e., 216.2 mb shipped plus 178.2 mb forward sales). This
amounts to 43.8% of the USDA’s projection of 900 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 30.8% of the
marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 16 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on
potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 900 mb target set by
the USDA in the September 11th WASDE report.
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 200 mb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16, up from 120 mb for “old crop” MY 2014/15 (up 5 mb from August and up 9 mb from July), down
from 228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7).
Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 due to
sizable 2013 and 2014 combined U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – which has led to sizable competitive U.S.
feedgrain supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
December 3, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and November
10th 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is
54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.197 ma (‐3.9%) from 56.841 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%) from
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56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low
of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA left unchanged its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat plantings to 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (‐7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%)
from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in 2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter
(SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at 7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4%
from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396
ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from 3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW)
wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October projection of total
U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres (+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014,
and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51 ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring
(HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA
at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and
November 10th 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested
acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385 ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma
(+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1
and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from
81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000‐
2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of
80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA maintained its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299 ma in 2014, down 393,000
acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from 34.609 ma in 2012. Of this total, 23.14
ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from
20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7%
from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma
of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW) wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in
2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0% from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October projection that total U.S.
other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous forecast.
This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres (+1.6%) from
12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma are Hard Red
Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Page | 6
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres
(+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In the November 2015 WASDE report the USDA maintained it’s October projection of 2015 U.S. average
wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from 44.1 bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac
in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down
from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record of 46.2
bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels (bb).
This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐
2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.930 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 projected by the USDA are unchanged
from October but down 84 mb from the September WASDE report, resulting from beginning stocks of 753 mb,
projected 2015 production of 2.052 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1 and Figure 7). Over the last
ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY
2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.969 bb in MY 2011/12,
3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in MY 2014/15, and are now projected to be 2.930
bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection of 753 mb in
beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY
2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY
2007/08.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in MY 2014/15
(the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY 1973/74 and prior to MY
2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 124 mb in
MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt
(1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 26.0 mmt (955 mb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990
(32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).
Page | 7
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has followed a consistent
upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in
demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY
2015/16 follows 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figure 8).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). The USDA’s forecast of U.S.
wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S.
wheat for seed use purposes, driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate
U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources) with consideration for the risk
of possible annual seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 800 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (down 50 mb from October,
down 100 mb from September, 125 mb from August, and 150 mb from July) are down 6.3% from 854 mb in
“old crop” MY 2014/15 – which is down to the lowest amount in 45 years, i.e., since 610 mb in MY 1971/72
prior to the “Russian Grain Deal” period of MY 1973/74 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Over the last ten (10)
marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in
MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY
2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 800
mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b)
prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That
said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United
States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical
conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine and also in the broader Middle East), and 2) the potential for dry or
adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the likelihood of an “El Nino”
or an “El Nino transition to a La Nina” weather pattern in the spring and/or summer of 2016. However, until
tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market events should
occur in late 2015 or in 2016, such market uncertainties are being treated as non‐factors in current World
wheat export markets.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through November 19th – the 26th week of the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat – have totaled 351.2 mb, which is 43.9% of the USDA’s projected “new
crop” MY 2015/16 exports of 800 mb, with 50.0% (26 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. The
“new crop” 2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United States’
wheat export shipments will need to average 17.3 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s November 10th WASDE projection of 800 mb. Total wheat
export shipments by the United States of 12.75 mb and 9.5 mb during the weeks ending November 12th and
19th, respectively, are behind the pace (17.3 mb / week) to meet even the recently reduced USDA forecast of
800 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly
Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
Page | 8
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 166.4 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of November 19th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus
outstanding shipments added up to 517.6 mb (i.e., 351.2 mb shipped plus 166.4 mb forward sales). This
amounts to 64.7% of the USDA’s projection of 800 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 50.0% of the
marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 26 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on
potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 800 mb target set by
the USDA in the November 10th WASDE report.
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 180 mb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16, unchanged from October but down 20 mb from September, and up from 120 mb for “old crop”
MY 2014/15, down from 228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY 2012/13
(Table 1 and Figure 8). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new
crop” MY 2015/16 due to sizable 2013 and 2014 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – which has led to large
competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
May 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the March 31, 2015 USDA NASS Prospective Plantings report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. wheat
total planted acreage would be 55.367 million acres (ma), down 1.455 ma (‐2.6%) from 56.822 ma in 2014,
down 869,000 acres (‐1.5%) from 56.236 ma in 2013, up 294,000 acres (+0.1%) from 55.294 ma in 2012, and
down from 54.277 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 3 and 4). In the May 12th USDA NASS Crop Production
report, the USDA used these same projections of U.S. wheat total planted acreage by class.
At that time the USDA also forecast that total U.S. winter wheat plantings in 2015 would be 40.751 ma,
down 1.648 ma (‐3.9%) from 42.399 ma in 2014, and down 2.479 ma (‐5.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this
total, 29.6 ma were projected to be seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down approximately
4% from 30.47 ma in 2014, and down marginally from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat
planted acreage was projected to be 7.75 ma, down 8.8% from 8.50 ma in 2014, and down 22.8% from 10.04
ma in 2013. White Winter (WW) wheat acres of 3.433 ma in 2015 are essentially equal to the previous year.
The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 would be 12.969 ma, down
56,000 acres (‐0.4%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, but up 1.363 ma (+11.7%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total,
12.1 ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, down from 12.25 ma in 2014, but up from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 was projected by the USDA to be 1.647 ma in 2015, up 249,000
acres (+17.8%) from 1.398 ma in 2014, and up 247,000 acres (+17.6%) from 1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the May 12, 2015 USDA WASDE report the USDA based its projections of U.S. wheat harvested acreage
in 2015 on 10 year harvested‐to‐planted ratios by state. Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted
acreage in the U.S. was estimated to be 86.7% in 2015, up from 81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable
to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%, median = 84.4%) over the 2000‐2014 period (Table 1 and
Figure 4). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.6% was the lowest since
81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage would be approximately 47.977 million
acres (ma), up 1.596 ma (+3.4%) from 46.381 ma in 2014, up 2.645 ma (+5.8%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, down
781,000 acres (‐1.6%) from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The
USDA also forecast that total U.S. winter wheat harvested acres in 2015 would be 33.838 ma, up 1.534 ma
(+4.7%) from 32.304 ma in 2014, and up 1.188 ma (+3.6%) from 32.650 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. average wheat yields would be 43.5 bushels per acre (bu/ac) –
reflecting drought and winter kill damage on U.S. winter wheat acres again in 2015. This projection of 2015
U.S. wheat yields of 43.5 bu/ac is down from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, the
previous record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012, 43.6 bu/ac in 2011, and 46.1 bu/ac in 2010 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
Page | 5
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (55.367 ma), harvested acreage (47.977
ma), and yield (43.5 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production would be 2.087 billion bushels (bb) – up from 2.026 bb
2014, and within the 2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and
Figure 6).
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.937 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2015/16, resulting
from beginning stocks of 709 mb, projected 2015 production of 2.087 bb, and projected imports of 140 mb
(Table 1 and Figure 6). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in
MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY
2010/11, 2.968 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.118 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.021 bb in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in “current” MY
2014/15, and now 2.937 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 709 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 20.2% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “current” MY 2014/15, and down marginally from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection
of 709 mb in beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306
mb in MY 2009/10 – following the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that developed in MY
2008/09.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 140 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be the third highest amount on
record, less than 150 mb in “current” MY 2014/15, and the record high of 169 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY
1973/74 the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in
MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location / logistics.
Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last two years have been a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat
imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.378 billion
bushels in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over
30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.1 mmt), 1991 (32.0 mmt), and 1986 (31.4 mmt). Projected Canadian wheat
production in the “new crop” MY 2015/16 is 29.0 mmt (1.066 bb), compared to 29.3 mmt (1.077 bb) in
“current crop” MY 2014/15.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has been trending
consistently higher over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated increases in
demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY
2015/16 continues the steady upward trend following from 960 mb in “current” MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY
2013/14, and from 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down marginally from 77 mb in
“current” MY 2014/15, and compares to 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure
7). The USDA’s forecast U.S. wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but
inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed, driven primarily by a) the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant
Page | 6
adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources), and b) the need for
adequate wheat seed stocks to cover possible U.S. seed wheat production shortfalls from year to year.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 925 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 860 mb in “current”
MY 2014/15 the lowest amount since 879 mb in MY 2010/11 (Table 1 and Figure 7). Over the last ten (10)
marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in
MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY
2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, 860 mb in “current” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 925 mb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16.
The sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies along with prospects
for fully adequate foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes, are factors that have caused lower U.S.
wheat exports in “current” MY 2014/15. That said, the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future
from geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine), and the potential for dry or adverse weather
conditions in other major World wheat production areas in the coming year are all factors that may eventually
support increased U.S. wheat exports and higher World wheat prices in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing
year.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through May 7th – the 49th week of the “current crop” 2014/15
marketing year for U.S. wheat – totaled 774.0 mb, which is 90.0% of the USDA’s projected “current” MY
2014/15 exports of 860 mb with 94.2% (49 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. “Current” MY
2014/15 ends on May 31, 2015. United States’ wheat export shipments will need to average 28.7 mb per week
through the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to attain the USDA’s May 12th WASDE
projection of 860 mb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 10.5 mb and 10.9 mb during the weeks ending
April 30th and May 7th, respectively, were “behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 860 mb in the “current
crop” 2014/15 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 78.2 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (that had not yet been shipped as of May 7th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding
shipments added up to 852.2 mb (i.e., 774.0 mb shipped plus 78.2 mb forward sales). This amounts to 99.1%
of the USDA’s projection of 860 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 94.2% of the marketing year having
already occurred (i.e., 49 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 180 mb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16, up from 160 mb for “current” MY 2014/15, but down from 223 mb in MY 2013/14, and down
from the recent high of 364 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has
trended lower across “current” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 due to sizable 2013 and 2014 U.S.
corn and grain sorghum crops – which has led to more abundant competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies for
domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
February 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ojection of U.S.
wheat exports for MY 2014/15 to the lowest level in 5 years. Wheat prices in the U.S. are projected to be
down to a four year low due to limited U.S. wheat exports and domestic livestock wheat feeding.
The USDA projects that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S.
hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states again in MY 2014/15 as in MY
2013/14. Also, no other major production problems in competing World wheat exporting countries have yet
emerged to the degree that the “large crop‐over‐supply” situation in World wheat markets has been changed.
However, there are developing concerns about wheat export supply availability from the Black Sea region, and
the ongoing possibility of crop problems developing among major World wheat producers / exporters. United
States’ wheat exports have been reduced by a recent strong positive trend in the U.S. dollar.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA maintained its projection of lower 2014
U.S. wheat production, reduced total use, increased ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 vs a year ago. The USDA’s projected “current crop” MY 2014/15 scenario is for a
2.026 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 2.776 bb total supplies (down 20 million bushels or ‘mb’ from
January on reduced imports), 900 mb exports (down 25 mb), 2.084 bb total use (down 25 mb), 692 mb ending
stocks (up 5 mb), 33.2% ending stocks‐to‐use (vs 32.6% last month), and a forecast U.S. price of $6.00 /bu
(range of $5.85 to $6.15) – compared to $5.90‐$6.30 ($6.10 midpoint) from January.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “next crop” MY 2015/16: KSU projections of “next crop” MY 2015/16 supply‐
demand balances and prices are represented in two scenarios, either “Trend Yield” or “Short Yield” scenarios,
which are as follows. A) “Trend Yield” Scenario: 60% prob. of 54.830 million acres (ma) planted, 46.105 ma
harvested, 45.9 bu/ac trend yield, 2.116 billion bu. (bb) production, 2.958 bb total supplies, 1.050 bb exports,
2.260 bb total use, 698 mb end stocks, 30.9% S/U, $6.20 /bu U.S. average price. B) “Short Yield” Scenario: 40%
prob. of 54.830 ma planted, 46.105 ma harvested, 43.5 bu/ac trend yield, 2.006 bb production, 2.858 bb total
supplies, 1.025 bb exports, 2.224 bb total use, 634 mb end stocks, 28.5% S/U, $6.45 /bu U.S. average price.
The key assumption in these KSU projections is that there will be a moderate recovery in U.S. wheat exports.
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 912.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from
891.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 855.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “current
crop” MY 2014/15 of 197.9 mmt (27.7% S/U) are up from 187.5 mmt (26.6% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from
174.5 mmt (25.8% S/U) in MY 2012/13. For perspective, these figures can be compared to the historic World
wheat ending stocks and ending stocks‐to‐use minimums of 129.7 mmt and 21.1% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. February USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On February 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The “current
crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year will last from June 1, 2014 through May 31, 2015, with the “new
crop” 2015/16 marketing year beginning on June 1, 2015.
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $8.62 per bushel on May 6, 2014 for the MARCH 2015 contract, Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures trended sharply lower through the later part of September‐early October – with the
MARCH 2015 contract trading as low as $5.54 per bushel on October 1, 2014. Following the early October low
the MARCH 2015 contract trended higher through October – up to the $6.16‐$6.17 range before trading lower
again in early November (down to $5.70 ¼ on 11/10/2014) – after which wheat futures markets trended
higher. On Wednesday, December 18th CME Hard Red Winter Wheat futures traded as high as $7.05 ¾ per
bushel – followed then by a downtrend in prices through late January‐early February 2015, with MARCH 2015
Kansas hard red winter wheat futures declining as low as $5.33 on February 2nd.
After a $0.24 ½ /bu move higher on February 3rd, MARCH 2015 Hard Red Winter Wheat futures prices
responded to the release of the February 10th USDA reports by trading lower for the day. MARCH 2015 HRW
wheat efutures prices opened at $5.61 ¾ on Tuesday, February 10th. The USDA reports were released at
midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time). Prices declined as high as $5.63 ½ and as low as $5.52 ¾ per bushel during
the session before closing $0.09 ½ lower for the day at $5.54 /bu (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2015 wheat
traded in an essentially sideways pattern until February 17‐18, when 1) weather and crop development
concerns in the U.S., and 2) concerns about Black Sea geopolitical conflicts and future availability of wheat
exports from that region of the World, caused prices to go as high as $5.82 ¼ before settling at $5.62 ¼ on
2/17, and then to trade as high as $5.70 and as low as $5.46 ¾ on 2/18, before closing at $5.48 for the day.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
July 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
U.S
. D
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Date (Month / Day / Year)
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index
Major Currencies, Index March 1973=100, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRED)
U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Weighted)
Page | 4
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
The USDA’s projections of 2015 U.S. wheat planted acres from the June 30th Acreage report were used
without adjustment in the July 10th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. In the June 30, 2015 USDA
Acreage report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 56.079 million acres
(ma), down 743,000 acres (‐1.3%) from 56.822 ma in 2014, and down 157,000 acres (‐0.2%) from 56.236 ma in
2013 (Table 1 and Figures 3 and 4).
The USDA lowered its forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings to 40.620 ma – down 131,000 acres
from the USDA March 31st Prospective Plantings report estimate. This 2015 projection of 40.620 ma is down
1.779 ma (‐4.2%) from 42.399 ma in 2014, and down 2.610 ma (‐6.0%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total,
29.57 ma were projected to be seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down approximately 4%
from 30.47 ma in 2014, and down marginally from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted
acreage was projected to be 7.61 ma, down 10.5% from 8.50 ma in 2014, and down 22.8% from 10.04 ma in
2013. In 2015, USDA projects there to be 4.30 ma of all white wheat planted, with 3.433 ma of white winter
(WW) wheat, and approximately 867,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat. All acreage planted of U.S. white
wheat in 2015 of 4.30 ma is up marginally from 4.21 ma in 2014.
The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 would be 13.505 ma, up 480,000
acres (+3.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, but up 1.363 ma (+11.7%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.6
ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, but up from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 was projected by the USDA to be 1.954 ma in 2015, up 556,000
acres (+39.8%) from 1.398 ma in 2014, and up 554,000 acres (+39.6%) from 1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
The USDA’s projections of 2015 U.S. wheat harvested acres from the June 30th Acreage report were also
used without adjustment in the July 10th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. In the June 30, 2015
USDA Acreage report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage would be 48.454
million acres (ma), up 2.073 ma (+4.5%) from 46.381 ma in 2014, and up 3.122 ma (+6.9%) from 45.332 ma in
2013 (Table 1 and Figures 3 and 4).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage in the U.S. was estimated to be 86.4% in 2015,
up from 81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%, median
= 84.4%) over the 2000‐2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 4). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S.
wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.6% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.329 ma – up 1.025 ma (+3.2%) from
30.304 ma in 2014, and up 0.679 ma (+2.1%) from 32.650 ma in 2013. Of this total, 23.61 ma were projected
to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 7.7% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from 20.39 ma in 2013.
Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 6.44 ma, down 10.1% from 7.16 ma in
2014, and down 27.8% from 8.92 ma in 2013. In 2015, USDA projects there to be 3.222 ma of all white wheat
harvested, with 3.277 ma of white winter (WW) wheat, and approximately 834,000 acres of spring white (SW)
wheat. All acreage harvested of U.S. white wheat in 2015 of 4.11 ma is up marginally from 3.97 ma in 2014.
Page | 5
The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 would be 13.217 ma, up
477,000 acres (+3.7%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, but up 1.873 ma (+16.5%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this
total, 12.38 ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 was projected by the USDA to be 1.908 ma in 2015, up
571,000 acres (+42.7%) from 1.337 ma in 2014, and up 570,000 acres (+42.6%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. average wheat yields would be 44.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – up from
44.2 bu/ac in June and from 43.5 bu/ac in May. This increase in projected 2015 U.S. wheat yields reflected
improved Hard Red Winter wheat prospects in the U.S. Central and Southern Plains due to recent rains and
cool weather (in spite of accompanying lodging and disease problems). This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat
yields of 44.3 bu/ac is up from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, and is comparable to the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013,
the previous record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012, 43.6 bu/ac in 2011, and 46.1 bu/ac in 2010 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (56.079 ma), harvested acreage (48.454
ma), and yield (44.3 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production would be 2.148 billion bushels (bb). This projection
of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.148 bb is up 27 mb from the June WASDE report, and up 61 mb from May.
Production of U.S. wheat of 2.148 bb in 2015 is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and 2.135 bb in 2013, and within the
2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 6).
By class, 2015 U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production is forecast at 866 mb, up 17.3% from 738
mb in 2014. United States’ 2015 Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat production is forecast at 573 mb, up 3.1% from
556 mb in 2014. Soft Red Winter (HRS) wheat production in 2015 is forecast at 393 mb, down 13.6% from
455 mb in 2014. Recently concerns about quality characteristics of the U.S. 2015 SRW wheat crop have
emerged, following from extremely wet late season conditions in the eastern U.S. Corn Belt. United States’
2015 White wheat (WW) production is forecast at 239 mb, up 6.7% from 224 mb in 2014. Even with this
USDA forecast for higher 2015 production, extremely dry conditions have impacted U.S. white wheat 2015
production prospects in the Pacific Northwest. Durum wheat production in 2015 in the U.S. is forecast at 76
mb, up 43.4% from 53 mb in 2014.
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 3.031 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2015/16 (up 58 mb
from June, and up 94 mb from May), resulting from beginning stocks of 753 mb, projected 2015 production of
2.148 bb, and projected imports of 130 mb (Table 1 and Figure 6). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S.
wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09,
2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.968 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.118 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.021 bb
in MY 2013/14, 2.764 bb in MY 2014/15, and now are projected to be 2.973 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 41 mb from June, and
are up 26.7% from 590 mb in beginning stocks in MY 2014/15, and up 4.9% from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This
projection of 753 mb in beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic
low of 306 mb in MY 2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation
that occurred in MY 2007/08.
Page | 6
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 130 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 (down 10 mb from June) would be
the third highest amount on record, less than 144 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (down 4 mb from June), and
the record high of 169 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY 1973/74 and prior to MY 2013/14, the next highest
amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in
MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.5
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.378 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.3 mmt (1.077
bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 27.5 mmt (1.010 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The next largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.1 mmt), 1991 (32.0 mmt), and
1986 (31.4 mmt).
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has been trending
consistently higher over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated increases in
demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY
2015/16 continues the steady upward trend following from 960 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14,
and from 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in MY 2014/15 (up 4
mb from the June WASDE report), and compares to 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1
and Figure 7). The USDA’s forecast U.S. wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively
small but inelastic demand for U.S. wheat seed, driven primarily by a) the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed
to plant adequate U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources), b) the
need for adequate wheat seed stocks to cover possible U.S. seed wheat production shortfalls from year to
year, and c) whatever marginal increases or decreases in seed use are needed to accommodate changing U.S.
wheat seeded acreage on a year‐to‐year basis.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 950 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (up 25 mb from the June
WASDE report) are up from 855 mb in MY 2014/15 – the lowest amount since 879 mb in MY 2010/11 (Table 1
and Figure 7). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07,
1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015 bb in MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in
MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, and 855 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a
projection of 950 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in MY 2014/15 are a) the sharp increase in
the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b) prospects for at least adequate
competitive foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes. That said, the uncertain impact on World wheat
trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine), and the potential for dry
or adverse weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the likelihood of an “El
Nino” weather pattern in the coming year are both factors that may eventually support increased U.S. wheat
exports and at least somewhat higher World wheat prices in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year.
Page | 7
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through July 9th – the 6th week of the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year for U.S. wheat – totaled 61.8 mb, which is 6.5% of the USDA’s projected MY 2015/16 exports of
950 mb, with 11.5% (6 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. The 2015/16 marketing year began on
June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United States’ wheat export shipments will need to average
19.3 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s July
10th WASDE projection of 950 mb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 10.5 mb during the week ending
July 9th were “behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 950 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year.
(Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 176.4 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of July 9th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding
shipments added up to 238.2 mb (i.e., 61.8 mb shipped plus 176.4 mb forward sales). This amounts to 25.1%
of the USDA’s projection of 950 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 11.5% of the marketing year having
already occurred (i.e., 6 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 200 mb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16 (up 5 mb from June and up 20 mb from May). This projection of 200 of U.S. wheat fed in “new
crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 111 mb for “old crop” MY 2014/15 (down 49 mb from the June WASDE), but still
down from 223 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 364 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and
Figure 7).
Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 due to sizable 2013 and 2014
U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – which has led to more abundant and competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies
for domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
October 29, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th 2015 Crop
Production report the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is 54.644 million acres
(ma), down 1.435 ma from the USDA’s earlier projection of 56.079 ma in the June 30th Acreage report and
subsequent July‐September Crop Production reports. This projection of 54.644 ma of 2015 U.S. wheat
planted area is down 2.197 ma (‐3.9%) from 56.841 ma in 2014 (adjusted up 19 ma), down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%)
65
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Page | 5
from 56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6
year low of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA lowered its forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings to
39.461 ma – down 1.159 ma from it’s previous estimate, down 2.948 ma (‐7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014
(adjusted 10 mb higher), and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma are
projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in 2014,
and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at 7.09 ma,
down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4% from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to
be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396 ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from 3.427 ma in
2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA projected total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to
be 13.247 ma – down 258,000 acres from it’s earlier estimate. This projection of 13.247 ma is up 222,000
acres (+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51
ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the USDA at
1.936 ma in 2015 – down 18 ma from the it’s earlier estimate. This total of 1.936 ma for 2015 is up 529,000
acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014 (raised 9 ma), and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from 1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th 2015
Crop Production report the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage is 47.094 million
acres (ma), down 1.360 ma from it’s earlier projection of 48.454 ma in the June 30th Acreage and subsequent
July‐September Crop Production reports. This projection of 47.094 ma of 2015 U.S. wheat harvested area is
up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385 ma in 2014 (raised 4 ma), and up 1.762 ma (+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in
2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage in the U.S. was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015,
up from 81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over
the 2000‐2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in
2013 of 80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.257
ma – down 1.072 ma from the previous USDA projection – and down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299 ma in
2014 (raised 5 ma), down 393,000 acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from
34.609 ma in 2012. Of this total, 23.14 ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up
5.6% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from 20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage
was projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7% from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For
2015, USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW)
wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in 2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0%
from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat harvested
area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous forecast. This projection of 12.941 ma of
2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres (+1.6%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, and up
Page | 6
1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from
11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015 – down 12 ma from it’s previous estimate, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from
1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres (+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA projected 2015 U.S. average wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from 44.1
bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection of
2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1
bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.052 billion bushels (bb). This
projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is down 84 mb from August‐September, and down 96
mb from July. It is also up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average
= 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7).
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.930 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 projected by the USDA is down 84 mb
from the September WASDE report, resulting from beginning stocks of 753 mb, projected 2015 production of
2.052 bb, and projected imports of 125 mb (Table 1 and Figure 7). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S.
wheat total supplies have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09,
2.984 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.969 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.119 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.026 bb
in MY 2013/14, 2.766 bb in MY 2014/15 (up 1 mb from last month), and are now projected to be 2.930 bb in
“new crop” MY 2015/16 (down 84 mb from September).
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 753 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 27.6% from 590 mb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and up from 718 mb in MY 2013/14. This projection of 753 mb in
beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term historic low of 306 mb in MY
2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks situation that occurred in MY
2007/08.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 125 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are less than 149 mb in MY 2014/15
(the 2nd highest on record), and the record high of 173 mb in MY 2013/14 (up 4 mb from August). Since MY
1973/74 and prior to MY 2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in
MY 2008/09; 2) 124 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.53
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.379 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.42 mmt
(1.081 bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 26.0 mmt (955 mb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt happened in 1986 (31.4 mmt or 1.152 bb), 1990
(32.1 mmt or 1.179 bb), 1991 (31.9 mmt or 1.174 bb), and 2013 (37.5 mmt or 1.379 bb).
Page | 7
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has followed a consistent
upward trend over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated regular increases in
demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY
2015/16 follows from 958 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14, and from 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table
1 and Figure 8).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 81 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8). The USDA’s forecast U.S.
wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic demand for U.S.
wheat for seed use purposes, driven primarily by the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate
U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources) with consideration for
possible annual seed wheat production shortfalls.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 850 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (down 50 mb from
September, 75 mb from August, and 100 mb from July) are down marginally from 854 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15 – down to the lowest amount since 879 mb in MY 2010/11 (Table 1 and Figure 8). Over the last ten
(10) marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.015
bb in MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.012 bb in MY
2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, an estimate of 854 mb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 850
mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop”
MY 2015/16 are a) the sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b)
prospects for fully adequate supplies of competitive foreign wheat stockpiles for export trade purposes. That
said, there are several factors that could change the current “low export demand” situation for the United
States, including 1) the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the future from ongoing geopolitical
conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine), and 2) the potential for dry or adverse weather conditions in other
major World wheat production areas due to the likelihood of an “El Nino” weather pattern in the coming year.
However, until tangible evidence of such potential damage to foreign wheat production and/or other market
events should occur in late 2015 or in 2016, such questions are seemingly being treated as non‐factors in
current World wheat export markets.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through October 22nd – the 22nd week of the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year for U.S. wheat – have totaled 313.7 mb, which is 36.9% of the USDA’s projected “new crop” MY
2015/16 exports of 850 mb, with 42.3% (22 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. The “new crop”
2015/16 marketing year began on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United States’ wheat
export shipments will need to average 17.9 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year to attain the USDA’s October 9th WASDE projection of 850 mb. Total wheat export shipments
by the United States of 13.8 mb, 7.9 mb, and 11.8 mb during the weeks ending October 8th, 15th, and 22nd,
respectively, are behind the pace (17.9 mb / week) to meet the USDA forecast of 850 mb in the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 154.8 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of October 22nd), total U.S. wheat shipped plus
Page | 8
outstanding shipments added up to 468.5 mb (i.e., 313.7 mb shipped plus 154.8 mb forward sales). This
amounts to 55.1% of the USDA’s projection of 850 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 42.3% of the
marketing year having already occurred (i.e., 22 of 52 weeks) – presenting a more positive perspective on
potential U.S. wheat export sales and the likelihood of U.S. wheat exports reaching the 850 mb target set by
the USDA in the October 9th WASDE report.
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 180 mb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16, down 20 mb from the previous month, but up from 120 mb for “old crop” MY 2014/15, down
from 228 mb in MY 2013/14, and down from the recent high of 365 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 8).
Domestic U.S. wheat feeding had trended lower in “old crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 due to
sizable 2013 and 2014 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – which has led to large competitive U.S. feedgrain
supplies for domestic livestock feeding at lower market …
June 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the March 31, 2015 USDA NASS Prospective Plantings report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. wheat
total planted acreage would be 55.367 million acres (ma), down 1.455 ma (‐2.6%) from 56.822 ma in 2014,
down 869,000 acres (‐1.5%) from 56.236 ma in 2013, up 294,000 acres (+0.1%) from 55.294 ma in 2012, and
down from 54.277 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 3 and 4). The USDA has maintained the same assumption
about U.S. wheat planted acreage in the May and June WASDE reports. The USDA National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) will release the annual Acreage report on June 30th in which at lease marginal
changes in the USDA’s projection of 2015 U.S. wheat acreage are likely to occur.
The USDA left unchanged its forecasts that total U.S. winter wheat plantings in 2015 would be 40.751 ma,
down 1.648 ma (‐3.9%) from 42.399 ma in 2014, and down 2.479 ma (‐5.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this
total, 29.6 ma were projected to be seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down approximately
4% from 30.47 ma in 2014, and down marginally from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat
planted acreage was projected to be 7.75 ma, down 8.8% from 8.50 ma in 2014, and down 22.8% from 10.04
ma in 2013. White Winter (WW) wheat acres of 3.433 ma in 2015 are essentially equal to the previous year.
The USDA projected that total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 would be 12.969 ma, down
56,000 acres (‐0.4%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, but up 1.363 ma (+11.7%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total,
12.1 ma are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, down from 12.25 ma in 2014, but up from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 was projected by the USDA to be 1.647 ma in 2015, up 249,000
acres (+17.8%) from 1.398 ma in 2014, and up 247,000 acres (+17.6%) from 1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the June 10th USDA WASDE report the USDA left unchanged its previous May 12th WASDE projections of
U.S. wheat harvested acreage in 2015 that were based on 10 year harvested‐to‐planted ratios by state.
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage in the U.S. was estimated to be 86.7% in 2015, up
from 81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%, median =
84.4%) over the 2000‐2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 4). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat
acreage in 2013 of 80.6% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage would be approximately 47.977 million
acres (ma), up 1.596 ma (+3.4%) from 46.381 ma in 2014, up 2.645 ma (+5.8%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, down
781,000 acres (‐1.6%) from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The
USDA also left unchanged its forecast that total U.S. winter wheat harvested acres in 2015 would be 33.838
ma, up 1.534 ma (+4.7%) from 32.304 ma in 2014, and up 1.188 ma (+3.6%) from 32.650 ma in 2013.
Page | 5
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. average wheat yields would be 44.2 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – up from
43.5 bu/ac in May, and reflecting improved Hard Red Winter wheat prospects in the Central Plains due to
recent rains and cool weather (in spite of accompanying lodging and disease problems). This projection of
2015 U.S. wheat yields of 44.2 bu/ac is up from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, the
previous record of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012, 43.6 bu/ac in 2011, and 46.1 bu/ac in 2010 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (55.367 ma), harvested acreage (47.977
ma), and yield (44.2 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production would be 2.121 billion bushels (bb). This projection of
2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.121 bb is up 34 mb from May, up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐
2014 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average = 2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 6).
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat of 2.973 bb are projected by the USDA for “new crop” MY 2015/16 (up 36 mb
from May), resulting from beginning stocks of 712 mb, projected 2015 production of 2.121 bb, and projected
imports of 140 mb (Table 1 and Figure 6). Over the last ten (10) marketing years, U.S. wheat total supplies
have been 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.945 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.984 bb in MY
2009/10, 3.236 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.968 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.118 bb in MY 2012/13, 3.021 bb in MY 2013/14,
2.764 bb in MY 2014/15, and now are projected to be 2.973 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Forecast U.S. wheat beginning stocks of 712 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up 3 mb from May, up
20.7% from 590 mb in beginning stocks in MY 2014/15, and down marginally from 718 mb in MY 2013/14.
This projection of 712 mb in beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is more than double the long term
historic low of 306 mb in MY 2008/09 – which resulted from the historically tight U.S. wheat ending stocks
situation that occurred in MY 2007/08.
Projected U.S. wheat imports of 140 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be the third highest amount on
record, less than 148 mb in MY 2014/15 (down 2 mb), and the record high of 169 mb in MY 2013/14. Since MY
1973/74 and prior to MY 2013/14, the next highest amounts of U.S. wheat imports have been: 1) 127 mb in
MY 2008/09; 2) 123 mb in MY 2012/13; 3) 122 mb in MY 2006/07; and 4) 119 mb in MY 2009/10.
Nearly all of U.S. wheat imports come from Canada because of favorable geographic location and
associated grain transportation logistics. Large Canadian wheat supplies over the last several years have been
a major factor in this increase in U.S. wheat imports. Canada produced a record large wheat crop of 37.5
million metric tons (mmt) (or 1.378 bb in 60 lb/bu units) in MY 2013/14, followed by a crop of 29.5 mmt (1.085
bb) in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 29.0 mmt (1.066 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The next largest
Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over 30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.1 mmt), 1991 (32.0 mmt), and
1986 (31.4 mmt).
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 967 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 has been trending
consistently higher over time due to a) steady growth in the U.S. population, and b) associated increases in
demand for processed wheat products. This projected amount of 967 mb in food use in “new crop” MY
2015/16 continues the steady upward trend following from 960 mb in MY 2014/15, 955 mb in MY 2013/14,
and from 951 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7).
Page | 6
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 72 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down marginally from 77 mb in MY
2014/15, and compares to 77 mb in MY 2013/14, and 73 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7). The
USDA’s forecast U.S. wheat seed use extends the historic pattern of there being a relatively small but inelastic
demand for U.S. wheat seed, driven primarily by a) the amount of U.S. wheat seed needed to plant adequate
U.S. wheat acreage each year (from both commercial and on‐farm seed sources), and b) the need for adequate
wheat seed stocks to cover possible U.S. seed wheat production shortfalls from year to year.
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 925 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 855 mb in MY
2014/15 (down 5 mb from May) – the lowest amount since 879 mb in MY 2010/11 (Table 1 and Figure 7).
Over the last ten (10) marketing years, the U.S. has exported 908 mb of wheat in MY 2006/07, 1.263 bb in MY
2007/08, 1.015 bb in MY 2008/09, 879 mb in MY 2009/10, 1.291 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12,
1.012 bb in MY 2012/13, 1.176 bb in MY 2013/14, and 855 mb in MY 2014/15, with a projection of 925 mb in
“new crop” MY 2015/16.
Some of the factors that have caused lower U.S. wheat exports in MY 2014/15 are a) the sharp increase in
the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, and b) prospects for fully adequate competitive
foreign wheat supplies for export trade purposes. That said, the uncertain impact on World wheat trade in the
future from ongoing geopolitical conflicts (between Russian and Ukraine), and the potential for dry or adverse
weather conditions in other major World wheat production areas due to the likelihood of an “El Nino” weather
pattern in the coming year are both factors that may eventually support increased U.S. wheat exports and at
least somewhat higher World wheat prices in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year.
Cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments through June 4th – the 1st week of the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year for U.S. wheat – totaled 3.39 mb, which is 0.4% of the USDA’s projected MY 2015/16 exports of
925 mb, with 1.9% (1 of 52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. The 2015/16 marketing year began on
June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016. United States’ wheat export shipments will need to average
18.1 mb per week through the remainder of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year to attain the USDA’s June
10th WASDE projection of 925 mb. Wheat export shipments by the U.S. of 4.8 mb during the week ending June
4th were “behind pace” to meet the USDA forecast of 925 mb in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year.
(Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐ http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html).
In addition, when accounting for unshipped forward sales of exports of 170.5 mb in U.S. wheat for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 (i.e., that had not yet been shipped as of June 4th), total U.S. wheat shipped plus
outstanding shipments added up to 173.9 mb (i.e., 3.4 mb shipped plus 170.5 mb forward sales). This amounts
to 18.8% of the USDA’s projection of 925 mb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 1.9% of the marketing year
having already occurred (i.e., 1 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: The USDA projected that U.S. feed and residual use would be 195 mb in “new crop”
MY 2015/16 (up 15 mb from May), and up from 160 mb for MY 2014/15, down from 223 mb in MY 2013/14,
and down from the recent high of 364 mb in MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figure 7). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding
has trended lower in MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 due to sizable 2013 and 2014 U.S. corn and
grain sorghum crops – which has led to more abundant competitive U.S. feedgrain supplies for domestic
livestock feeding at lower market …