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March 4, 2025
Precision Ag and Technology Articles
solar storm, solar
particle events, agricultural technology … bushel per planted acre was at risk. Although
unprecedented during … precision agricultural era, the events of 10 May 2024 were not likely …
January 30, 2023
Ag Law Issues
consumers and decrease the risk of
foodborne illness and … which will lower business profits and be a drag on economic … will continue to be key
to profitability of farms and ranches in the …
October 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
orecast for “Current Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA projected 2016 U.S.
wheat plantings of 50.154 million acres (ma) – down 4.845 ma (‐8.8%) from 2015. The USDA also forecast
2016 harvested acres of 43.890 ma which would be down 3.428 ma (‐7.2%) vs 2015. Based on record high
projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 52.6 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is
forecast to be 2.310 bb (vs 2.062 bb in 2015), with total supplies of 3.410 bb (up from 2.927 bb in “old crop”
MY 2015/16), and total use of 2.272 bb (up from 1.952 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “current crop” MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 1.138 bb (vs 976 mb a
year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 50.09% S/U (vs 50.0% last year and 37.2% the previous year).
U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $3.50 to $3.90 (midpoint = $3.70 /bu) – down
from $4.89 /bu in “old crop” MY 2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State
University that these USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2016/17 have an 80% probability of occurring.
Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2016/17: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, one potential KSU‐Scenario for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices is presented for “current
crop” MY 2016/17 – and is given a 20% probability of occurring. Assuming the same 2016 acreage, yields,
imports, and production as USDA, as well as food and seed use, the alternative scenarios assumes a) higher
U.S. wheat exports (1.125 bb vs 975 mb by USDA), and b) lower feed and residual use (240 mb vs 260 mb by
USDA).
The resulting KSU “Higher Exports with Spring 2017 U.S. Wheat Development Problems” Scenario (20%
probability) assumes for “current crop” MY 2016/17: 2.310 bb production, 3.410 bb total supplies, 1.125 bb
exports, 240 mb feed & residual use, 1.008 bb ending stocks, 41.97% S/U, & $4.35 /bu U.S. wheat avg. price.
KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat
supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume a 5% decline in
U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage in 2017 (with a 7% decline for U.S. winter wheat, and no changes
for other spring wheat and durum wheat classes. These KSU projections also assume at least a continued
moderation in the value of the U.S. dollar during the “next crop” 2017/18 marketing year, with some
improvement in U.S. wheat exports as a result.
KSU Scenario A) “Trend Yield, Moderately Higher Exports” Scenario (65% probability) assumes for “next crop”
MY 2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 41.696 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 2.063 bb production, 3.326 bb
total supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 250 mb feed & residual use, 2.286 bb total use, 1.040 bb ending stocks,
45.49% S/U, & $4.10 /bu U.S. wheat average price; and
KSU Scenario B) “Lower Yield, Average Exports” Scenario (35% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 41.696 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac lower yield, 1.914 bb production, 3.177 bb total
supplies, 980 mb exports, 240 mb feed & residual use, 2.256 bb total use, 921 mb ending stocks, 40.82% S/U,
& $4.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
acre (8.1 percent) from the previous year. The United States pasture … following death. In that event, the estate can
be valued … However, in some estates, events can occur during the six-month …
January 31, 2022
Ag Law Issues
return any such payments not previously paid out and not yet due … for other significant life events. By waiting until estate … 8th
Cir. 2010). In any event, the transaction must have …
June 9, 2012
Tonsor)
2
Events Summary
• State-by-State … most influence…
• Risk sending signal of indifference … than “maximize expected profit”)
• However multiple …
August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
s Farm Management Association
Risk & Profit – August 22 & 23, 2019
… Cannot deduct contributions required in exchange for seating preference at college events (Ahearn Fund)
Limitation on cash contributions increased to 60% of AGI (from 50%)
… the table gives the tax due on the amount that spills over to the 24% bracket in the previous example
38
Worksheet 2 accounts for itemized deductions that exceed standard deduction (standard deduction is built into withholding tables)
Also accounts for “above the line” deductions
…
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
also directs the
Center for Risk
Management Education and … Joe’s
work focuses on risk
management and policy
solutions … innovative, resilient
and profitable. He is a
dedicated leader …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… 250 bb??) in “next crop”
MY 2018/19. And that risk again is likely to provi … midst of the 2017 Kansas corn harvest.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risks that occurred. The
cor …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … ergy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 3
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…