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January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … 2010-
49200-06200
NCFMEC-03
December 2011
©2011 by the North Central Farm … would shift some of the risk, and the
probability of …
October 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2016 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Wednesday, October 19th was $0.39 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.64 ¾ for JULY 2017 less $4.25 ¼
for DEC 2016 Corn), or $0.06643 per bushel per month. This compares to storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, for storage of wheat from December 2016 to July 2017 to at least
break even, local wheat basis levels would need to at least stay level or unchanged from current levels to fully
cover commercial storage charges over the same period. Also, it would be prudent to actually place a storage
hedge on the CME Kansas July 2017 futures contract if a person were actually holding wheat for sale that long.
Otherwise the possibility of seasonal harvest price weakness in June of 2017 could put these projected storage
profits at risk.
Kansas Wheat Seas …
January 1, 2013
Land Leasing
Forms
provided by the North Central Risk Management Education
Center … http://AgLease101.org
Managing risk is required for many farm … many farm enterprises to be profitable and sustainable.
Leasing …
January 30, 2023
Ag Law Issues
consumers and decrease the risk of
foodborne illness and … which will lower business profits and be a drag on economic … will continue to be key
to profitability of farms and ranches in the …
that is contingent on future events• A formal claim follows … corporation?
Material participation?
At-risk limitations?
AMT adjustments?
Shareholder … Limitations
Stock and debt basis
At risk
Passive activity loss
pp …
January 1, 2006
Management
may very well put you at risk of being sued for
discrimination—especially … both insulate you from legal risks and also help to ensure that … supervised. If the applicant is at risk of injuring himself or anyone …
July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
2017/18 ($5.14)
Page | 6
“Old crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and concluded on May 31, 2017. The
projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat exhibited a pronounced price low in August‐
September 2016 with monthly prices climbing irregularly from October through March 2017 – with a sideways
to declining trend during April‐May (Figure 2).
USDA price model projections for “new crop” MY 2017/18 indicate that the final U.S. wheat season
average price will be $5.14 per bushel. These projections are taken from the USDA Economic Research Service
(ERS) wheat futures price forecast model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
This projection of $5.14 per bushel is up $0.34 per bushel from the July 12th USDA WASDE midpoint
projection of $4.80, and nearly equal to the upper end of the USDA forecast range of $4.40‐$5.20 per bushel.
The seasonal price patterns presented in Figure 2 are calculated as a percent of an adjusted USDA’s futures‐
based price model season average price for “new crop” MY 2017/18 of $5.14 per bushel. This projection
reflects higher projected cash prices (i.e., from deferred futures prices and basis projections) for the June 1,
2017 through May 31, 2018 period (i.e., for “new crop” MY 2017/18) than have actually occurred over the June
1, 2016 through May 31, 2017 time‐frame (i.e., in “old crop” MY 2016/17).
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index & Global Wheat Prices
Since 1973 the monthly average trade‐weighted index value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies
of major U.S. trading partner countries has averaged 94.3604 with a median value of 93.4719 – indicating
some positive skewness in U.S. dollar index values (i.e., a few higher values pulling up the average) (Figure 3).
The historic low in the U.S. dollar trade weighted index since 1973 was 69.0639 – occurring in August 2011.
The historic high of 143.9059 occurred in March 1985 – coinciding with the U.S. farm crisis period. Since
January 1973 the U.S. dollar index has declined on average at a rate of ‐0.0580 per month …
January 14, 2016
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED … 2001
Feeder Cattle Price Risk
Considerations:
Quantitative … IF COG $80/cwt THEN Exp. Profit = +/- $19/hd
Economic …
June 28, 2018
Hedging & Options
… … an 50 years. The magnitude of capital at risk in the
industry together …
May 9, 2013
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
February 13’: -$174.02/steer … – Decision aides, these events, regularly updated
online … • Examine Feeder Cattle Risk Management Alternatives
• …