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May 22, 2020
Farm Profitability, KFMA Research
provide good insight into the profitability and financial structure of … could at least match the profitability of 2019. However, the coronavirus … https://www.agmanager.info/crop-insurance/risk-management-strategies/mya-price-estimates-updated-arc-and-plc-commodity-0 …
Breakout Sessions
2012 Risk andProfitConference
Breakout Session Presenters … irepresentation in legislative matters.
2012 Risk andProfit …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
2017 Risk andProfitConference
Breakout Session Presenters … 2014)
1. Introduction
Many advances in risk management for agricultural production
Embraces the fact that every system will always be subject to some level of unpredictable vulnerabilities
1. Introduction
System Resilience …
March 25, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
… ccur in “new crop” MY 2019/20 – which will begin on June
1, 2019. The risk of tightening stocks is … hese countries place themselves at risk to the effect of
market …
September 17, 2018
Grain Marketing Presentations
for 2018 - 2019
2018 KSU Risk &ProfitConference
Manhattan, Kansas
DANIEL … KCOmaha Branch
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2018 U.S …
September 1, 2023
2023 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
g Policy Update
2023 Ag Lenders Conference –Garden City and ManhattanSeptember 26‐27, 2023
Jennifer IfftFlinchbaugh Agricultural Policy Chair and Extension Specialist in Agricultural Policy
Outline
• …
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
1
KANSAS LANDOWNER CONFERENCE
ELEMENTS OF A GOOD WRITTEN … entry and inspection: In the event that the farm
lease is terminated … long-term
investments in the event of a termination of the lease …
August 1, 2021
General Sessions
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts (LMIC: 8/10/21)
Data Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center … Want Feeder Cattle Price, Basis, & VOG Projections?Use BeefBasis.com
KSU‐Feeder Cattle Risk Management Toolhttps://www …
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
OUTLOOK
https://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐conference
Quarterly Forecasts (LMIC: 8/10/21)
Data Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center … Want Feeder Cattle Price, Basis, & VOG Projections?Use BeefBasis.com
KSU‐Feeder Cattle Risk Management Toolhttps://www …
May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
A Deferred Future “Carrying Charge” View of KS HRW Winter Wheat Futures
On May 6th carrying charges between the JULY 2019 to SEPTEMBER 2019 Kansas HRW Wheat futures
contracts (i.e., the JUL‐SEP 2019 Spread) were $0.11 per bushel, or $0.0550 per bushel per month. This
compares to spreads of $0.22 /bu or $0.0733 /bu/mo. for SEP‐DEC 2019, and $0.2250 /bu or $0.0750 /bu/mo.
for DEC 2019‐MAR 2020 Kansas HRW Wheat futures contracts.
These “full carry” deferred futures full contract storage cost contract spreads are influenced by large
supplies on hand – which leads to higher Variable Storage Rates (VSR) among Kansas HRW Wheat futures
contracts. These large carries are encouraging storage of “new crop” 2019 Kansas HRW wheat on the one
hand, and provide the basis for a potential return to storage hedges by producers and grain elevators for the
2019 HRW wheat crop on the other.
Extending this analysis further to later deferred contracts, whereas on May 6th harvest JULY 2019 Kansas
HRW Wheat futures closed at $4.03 /bu, the JULY 2020 contract closed at $4.84 ¾ /bu for JULY 2020 – up
20.2% and $0.0681 /bu/month from JULY 2019. Extending even further into the next year, on May 6th JULY
2021 KS HRW Wheat closed at $5.42 ½ /bu, up 11.9% and $0.0479 /bu/month from JULY 2020
From an economic viewpoint, these deferred years’ JULY Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices in years 2020
& 2021 could reflect market expectations that HRW wheat futures prices will eventually be higher than
current bids for JULY 2019 futures – which is consistent with economic theory. However, it also seems that
the carrying charges now reflected across the range of available deferred KS HRW Wheat futures contracts
appear to be being extended out to the distant “new crop” JULY 2020 and JULY 2021 contracts.
Restated, it appears these uninterrupted positive carrying charges are being inflexibly and mechanically
applied to deferred KS HRW Wheat futures contracts as far as 24 months into the future – regardless of what
expected fundamental supply‐demand conditions may be in the wheat market that far out. If this is so, then
these deferred futures prices may present: a) opportunities for long‐term market arbitrage positions to
traders, or b) hedging opportunities for U.S. wheat producers IF they are able to financially manage the risk of
potential margin call …