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August 9, 2024
Prices and Price Forecasts
significant effect on farm profitability. As shown by Ibendahl, fertilizer … have large effects on farm
profitability.
Ibendahl has been predicting … fertilizer purchases
could improve profitability. 2025 looks to be a challenging …
March 1, 2013
12-18 months
- Should be profit opportunities on the horizon … will enjoy what share of the profits (cow-calf, background,
feedlots … • Examine Feeder Cattle Risk Management Alternatives
• …
June 9, 2012
Tonsor)
2
Events Summary
• State-by-State … new facilities after Dec. 2010
– No new permits for … pasture access
• May 2010; 800 surveys across U.S …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas
Wheat futures contracts on Wednesday, December 28th was $0.22 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.32 for JULY 2017 less
$4.09 ½ for MARCH 2017 Wheat), or $0.05625 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or
additional handling costs or other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from MARCH 2017 to JULY 2017 would
at least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.05625 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo
storage cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the
March‐July 2017 period. Along these same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
October 22, 2012
76-100%
5. I don’t know
Events Summary
• U.S. State-by-State … agreements
• Live Trade Events
– May 11’: Australia … National support: 66% FOR (May 2010)
Source: Survey of 2,001 …
August 1, 2022
2022 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Uncertainty?
Amber Oerly, Risk & Profit 2022
Overview
• U.S. beef cow herd declining since 2020
• … Costs, structure, technology, demographics, climate, and barriers to
entry/asset fixity impact herd expansion/contraction decisions
• Unexpected events disrupted supply chains and created economic,
environmental, and social uncertainty in beef industry
• …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
DISCOVERY, DIVERGENT INCENTIVES, RISK MANAGEMENT,
AND FUTURE … well-informed trade; better manage
risk; and inform policy and regulatory … Marketing Cost, Flexibility, & Risk Management; 3)
Market Information …
March 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during recessionary … economic stimulant. When these events shift the demand for U.S … 0.765
0.770
0.775
0.780
0.785
0.790
0.795
0.800
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.71
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eu
ro …
July 18, 2012
Energy
cost variability and greater risk management challenges ...........18
Figure … characterized by natural lag between profits and changes in slaughter … crops. In the 2000-01 to 2010-11 corn mar-
keting years …
July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
cost variability and greater risk management challenges ...........18
Figure … characterized by natural lag between profits and changes in slaughter … crops. In the 2000-01 to 2010-11 corn mar-
keting years …