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that is contingent on future events• A formal claim follows … corporation?
Material participation?
At-risk limitations?
AMT adjustments?
Shareholder … Limitations
Stock and debt basis
At risk
Passive activity loss
pp …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … ergy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 3
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
May 9, 2013
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
February 13’: -$174.02/steer … tabulations
Number of Lots
Capacity, # hd 2000 2005 2010 2012 2012 vs 2000
50000 … tabulations
Percent of Marketings
Capacity, # hd 2000 2005 2010 2012 2012 vs 2000
50000 …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
director of
the Center for Risk
Management Education and … research in
livestock market risk
management, meat demand … authority for LMR lapsing in 2005, the final rule of 2008 that …
September 26, 2022
Industry Economics & Trade
June 25, 2019
Feeder Cattle Pricing
primary alternative for price risk management in the feeder … effectiveness of the contract as a risk management tool is important … instrument for managing price risk.
Contract Specifications …
Summary Book - All Counties
23
2020 Crop Profit Centers … a measure of the economic profitability of the farm including opportunity … Charges) / VFP
Operating Profit Ratio (Line 60)
Provides …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
Lancaster 1966; Kim and Mauborgne 2005).
Against the foregoing … term create negative sales risk, which Srinivasan and Mason … the reformulation.
The risk of density function misspecification …
September 30, 2016
Wind Energy Leases
by a grant from the USDA Risk Management Agency through … Agency through the
Southern Risk Management Education Center … Councils. These are
non-profit organizations that operate …
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
also directs the
Center for Risk
Management Education and … Joe’s
work focuses on risk
management and policy
solutions … innovative, resilient
and profitable. He is a
dedicated leader …