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September 30, 2016
Wind Energy Leases
by a grant from the USDA Risk Management Agency through … Agency through the
Southern Risk Management Education Center … Councils. These are
non-profit organizations that operate …
December 27, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Since 1992 there have been negative correlations of ‐0.777 and ‐0.795 between the U.S. Trade Weighted
dollar index and the Texas Gulf HRW Wheat and Kansas City, Missouri Wheat cash prices for Ordinary protein
levels, respectively. This indicates that cash prices of U.S. wheat – denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars –
have a strong negative or inverse relationship with the value of the U.S. dollar over this time‐period.
U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the December 12th Crop Production report, the USDA projected 2017 U.S. wheat planted acreage to be
46.012 million acres (ma) – down 4.107 ma (‐8.2%) from 50.119 million acres (ma) in 2016, down 8.987 ma (‐
16.3%) from 54.999 ma in 2015, and down 19.05% from 56.841 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4). KSU
projections for All U.S. Wheat Planted Acres in 2017 equal those of the USDA.
U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Acres in 2017: The December 12th USDA Crop Production report
estimated U.S. winter wheat planted acres for harvest in 2017 to be 32.839 ma (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4).
Winter wheat seedings of 32.696 ma in 2017 (seeded in fall 2016 for harvest in 2017) were down 3.456 ma (‐
9.6%) to 36.152 ma in 2016, down 6.985 ma (‐17.6%) from 39.681 ma in 2015, down 9.713 ma (‐22.9%) from
42.409 ma in 2014, and down 10.534 ma (‐24.4%) from 43.230 ma in 2013.
With continued low winter wheat prices in Kansas, associated low profitability prospects, and intensive
localized infestations in 2017 of debilitating diseases such as wheat streak mosaic in some parts of the state, it
is likely that seeded acreage of Kansas hard red winter wheat will trend lower in 2018. Hard red winter (HRW)
wheat in Kansas is typically seeded in during the mid‐September through October time‐period. The initial
survey estimates of U.S. and Kansas winter wheat seeded acres will be given in the USDA Winter Wheat and
Canola Seedings report to be released on January 12, 2018.
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U.S. Dollar Index (Trade Wtd …
August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
land parcel’s expected
profitability – because owner equity … financing decision does impact risk; investments using more borrowed …
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
RISK &PROFIT CONFERENCEMANHATTAN, KANSASAUGUST 17, 2018
Roger … purchase tickets to athletic events at higher education institution• … farmer uses CCC loans?• At-risk rules?• No QBI deduction …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
term create negative sales risk, which Srinivasan and Mason … the reformulation.
The risk of density function misspecification … activities that lead to observed events, thereby
providing richer …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … ergy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 3
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
10 percent on all foreign profits currently deferred.
Eliminates … can put the plan itself at risk.• To solve the problem … and grantor is not a tax event
o Trust’s income, loss …
September 1, 2011
Animal ID & Traceability
systems, the
United States risks becoming less competitive … becoming less competitive and risks losing market access. This … becoming less competitive and risks losing market access. The …
October 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
1)
where S is the nominal exchange rate, P is the U.S. price level and P* is the price level in the country of
interest, say Ghana. When the real exchange rate is appreciating, it means the U.S. price of the bundle
3
of goods in the basket is increasing relative to the Ghanaian price. Now, when the real exchange rates
appreciates, then the real value of the dollar has depreciated, suggesting a decline in its purchasing
power, relatively speaking.
To get to know how Q affects the poverty level, it is necessary to try to understand the factors that
influence changes in Q. The real exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries may
change when there is a change in the relative demand for U.S. goods as a result of preference shift,
leading to total expenditure on U.S. goods increasing. The shift may arise from two principal sources.
An increase in global private and public demand for U.S. goods is one source of such shifts. This shift is
exacerbated when the relative increase in demand for U.S. goods is much higher than the increase in
demand for Ghana goods. In an increasingly interconnected world, imports tend to account increasing
share of development countries’ consumption. Another source of the shift is an increase in U.S.
Government expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during rec …