Search
Displaying 791 - 800 of 5631
May 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
MAY 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Dec. 16, 2013 – May 14, 2014
Close = $4.95 ½ on 3/14/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Dec. 16, 2013 – May 14, 2014
Close = $4.89 on 3/14/2014
Page | 3
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 91.691 million acres (ma), down from 95.365 ma in 2013,
97.155 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, the USDA projected 2014
U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 84.3 ma, down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, but up from
81.446 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.9%,
equal to 2013, but up from 89.9% in 2012 and 91.4% in 2011. The U.S. average and median (i.e., the 50th
percentile or “middle”) corn percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage over the years of 2000‐2013 has been
91.0% and 91.2% , with a high of 92.4% in 2010 and a low of 87.9% in 2002. Using the 2000‐2013 average
percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage proportion of 0.91 would lead to a projection of U.S. 2014 harvested
acres of 83.439 million acres – approximately 860,200 acres less than the USDA’s projection of 84.3 million
acres harvested.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 165.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, up
from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 yield of 123.4 bu/ac., and the historic high of 164.7 bu/ac
in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014
U.S. corn production to be a record high 13.935 billion bushels (bb) – which is up from 13.925 bb in 2013,
10.780 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009and (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 15.111 bb – resulting
from beginning stocks of 1.145 bb, projected 2014 production of 13.935 bb, and projected imports of 30 mb
(Table 1). Total supplies of 15.111 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, comparable to
14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY
2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.932 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.781 bb in “current year” MY
2013/14. Beginning stocks of 1.146 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up sharply from 821 mb in “current
year” MY 2013/14, and is comparable to the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.050 bb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 is equal to 5.050 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14 (up 50 mb from a month ago),
while being up from 4.648 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. Figure 5 shows weekly U.S.
oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration
(www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University. Assuming 2.75
gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected
annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2013/14 has ranged from 4.638‐5.262
bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 ‐ the beginning of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.
Over the period of from September 1, 2013 through May 2, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production has
been on pace to reach 5.004 bb in “current” MY 2013/14, with the months of May through August yet to
occur. This estimate of 5.004 bb is less than the USDA’s May 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.050 bb of corn
to be used for ethanol production during “current” MY 2013/14.
Page | 4
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
February 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – USDA “Current Crop” 2014/15 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA made no change from the January WASDE report in its projection that 2014 U.S. corn total
planted acreage was 90.597 million acres (ma), which had been adjusted down from 90.885 ma in the
December WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 2). Planted acreage of 90.597 million acres in 2014 is down from
95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.921 ma in 2011.
In addition, the USDA made no change in its January projection of 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage of
83.136 ma, which had been adjusted upwards from 83.097 ma in December. Harvested acreage of 83.136 ma
in 2014 is down from 87.451 ma in 2013, 87.365 ma in 2012, and 83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.8% ‐ which had
been adjusted up from 91.4% in December. This proportion of harvested acreage in 2014 of 91.8% is up
marginally from 91.7% in to 2013, and up from 89.9% in 2012, and 91.4% in 2011.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and
unchanged from the January USDA reports, but is down from earlier USDA projections of 173.4 bu/ac in
December and 174.2 bu/ac in October 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 3). This projection of 171.0 bu/ac in January‐
February is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the
previous record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
DEC 2015 CME eCorn Futures
June 20, 2014 – Feb. 17, 2015
Close = $4.20 ½ on 2/17/2015
MAR 2015 CME eCorn Futures
June 20, 2014 – Feb. 17, 2015
Close = $3.89 ½ on 2/17/2015
Page | 4
Based on these 2014 acreage and yield projections, the USDA maintained is January projection that 2014
U.S. corn production to be a record high 14.216 billion bushels (bb) – down from 14.407 bb in the December
USDA reports. The projection of a record high 14.216 bb is up from the previous record high of 13.925 bb in
2013, 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.472
bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.232 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.216 bb, and projected
imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Total supplies of 15.472 bb in “current crop” MY
2014/15 are comparable to recent year’s amounts of 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09,
14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904
bb in “short crop” MY 2012/13, and 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).
Beginning stocks of 1.232 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally (‐ 4 mb) from October‐
December USDA WASDE reports. The total of 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up
from 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, but less than 1.708 bb in
MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This amount of beginning stocks in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.232 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY
1996/97 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the
2nd highest), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13
marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in
MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.250 bb in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.175 bb in January and from 5.150 bb in the December WASDE report –
due to a) low corn input prices, b) at least moderate strength in distillers grains co‐product prices, and c)
increased projections of 2015 U.S. gasoline consumption released in recent weeks (Table 1 and Figures 5‐6).
This projection of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY
2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12.
Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the
equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has
ranged from 4.911‐5.530 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current
crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through February 6, 2015, corn
usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.277 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This
estimate of 5.277 bb is 27 mb more than the USDA’s February 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.250 bb of
corn to be used for ethanol production during “current crop” MY 2014/15, with 23 of 52 weeks (44.2%) of the
marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
December 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
CME eCorn Futures
July 21 – December 15, 2014
Close = $4.32 ¾ on 12/15/2014
MAR 2015 CME eCorn Futures
July 21 – December 15, 2014
Close = $4.08 ½ on 12/15/2014
Page | 4
Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production to be a
record high 14.407 billion bushels (bb) – larger than the previous record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb
in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.668
bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.236 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.407 bb, and projected
imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Total supplies of 15.668 bb in “current crop” MY
2014/15 are comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd
largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.782
bb in MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).
Beginning stocks of 1.236 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are unchanged from October‐November, but
are up sharply from 821 mb in MY 2013/14, and from 989 mb in MY 2012/13. This amount of beginning
stocks is up considerably from the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the
2nd highest), and also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13 marketing
year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.150 bb in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is unchanged from November but up 25 mb from September‐October – following
from expectations of low corn input prices and a continuation of at least marginal profitability for U.S. ethanol
production (Table 1 and Figures 5‐6). This projection of 5.150 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from
5.134 bb in MY 2013/14 (down 2 mb), and up from 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12.
Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the
equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has
ranged from 4.911‐5.508 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current
crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through December 5, 2014, corn
usage for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.185 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This
estimate of 5.185 bb is 35 mb more than the USDA’s December 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.150 bb of
corn to be used for ethanol production during “current crop” MY 2014/15, with 14 of 52 weeks (26.9%) of the
marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
September 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
CME eCorn Futures
Jan. 17, 2014 – Sept. 16, 2014
Close = $3.64 ¼ on 9/16/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Jan. 17, 2014 – Sept. 16, 2014
Close = $3.43 ¾ on 9/16/2014
Page | 3
Since then, DEC 2014 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.35 ¾ on September 15th
to a high of $3.50 ½ on September 16th, before closing at $3.43 ¾ on that same day. The low closing price of
$3.38 ½ on September 12th was a record historic low for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract.
The “new crop” MAY 2015 corn futures market contract also responded in a moderately negative manner
to the information in the September11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Thursday, September 11th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) MAY 2015 corn futures prices opened at the high for the day at $3.66 per
bushel, and traded as low as $3.56 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.62 – also down $0.04 ¾ for the
day (Figure 1). Since then, MAY 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.56 ¼ on
September 15th to a high of $3.70 on September 16th, before closing at $3.64 ¼ on that same day. The low
closing price of $3.59 ½ on September 12th was a record historic low for the MAY 2015 corn futures contract.
Question: Do these prices represent a fall harvest low?
It is possible that the sideways trend in DEC 2014 and MAY 2015 corn futures prices since the release of
the September 11th USDA reports may signal that “the market is looking for a low” in corn futures prices for fall
2015. Of course the results of the October and November 2014 and the January 2015 USDA crop production
and WASDE reports and the grain market’s reaction to them and potentially other market factors will be key
determinants as to whether these price levels represent the fall harvest “lows” this year. However, given what
the market now has in hand for information, that prices have not continued lower since the September 11th
USDA reports is an important market signal that the lows in the market may be occurring at this time.
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA projected that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 91.641 million acres (ma)
unchanged from July‐August USDA projections, but down 50,000 acres from the March 31st USDA NASS
Prospective Plantings Report (Table 1 and Figure 2). Planted acreage of 91.641 million acres in 2014 is down
from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.155 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011. In addition, the USDA projected 2014
U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 83.839 ma – unchanged from July‐August but down from its June 11 WASDE
report projection of 84.3 ma, and down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, but up from 81.446
ma in 2011. The 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.49%,
down from 91.9% in to 2013, but up from 89.9% in 2012 and 91.4% in 2011.
Prevented Planting Impacts? It is possible that these figures for 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested
acres could be adjusted low due to prevented planting that occurred this past spring. Farm Service Agency
(FSA) estimates released in August and September indicated as much as 2.5‐3.3 million acres may have been
designated as “prevented planted”. However, there are questions about how these FSA prevented planting
data are to be interpreted. Regardless, it seems likely that at least a marginal decrease in USDA projections of
2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage will occur in either the upcoming October, November or January
2015 USDA NASS Crop Production reports, which could lead to at least a marginal reduction in 2014 U.S. corn
production estimates, and which would in turn lead to adjustments in “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year U.S.
corn supply‐demand balances.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.7 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, and is
up from USDA projections of 167.4 bu/ac in August, and 165.3 in July. This projection of 171.7 bu/ac in
Page | 4
September is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.4 bu/ac., and the
previous historic high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014 acreage and yield
forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production to be 14.395 billion bushels (bb) – which would be
the highest amount on record, larger than the current record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.780 bb in 2012,
12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.607 bb
– resulting from beginning stocks of 1.181 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.395 bb, and projected imports
of 30 million bushel (mb) (Table 1). Total supplies of 15.607 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are comparable to
14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY
2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.932 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.781 bb in “old crop” MY
2013/14 (2nd highest).
Beginning stocks of 1.181 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are unchanged from August, but down from a
projection of 1.246 bb in the July WASDE report. Projected beginning stocks of 1.181 bb in “new crop” MY
2014/15 are up sharply from both 821 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14, and from 989 mb in MY 2012/13. This
amount of beginning stocks is up considerably from the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97. Imports of
30 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are the third highest on record, and are projected to be down from 35 mb in
“current year” MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest), and also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the
drought‐stressed 2012/13 marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in
MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.125 bb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 50 mb from August and up 75 mb from July – following from expectations of low
corn input prices and continued profitability on U.S. ethanol production. This projection of 5.125 bb in “new
crop” MY 2013/14 is unchanged from 5.125 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 5 mb), while being up from 4.641
bb (down 7 mb) in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12 (Figure 4). Figure 5 shows weekly U.S.
oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration
(www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University. Assuming 2.75
gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected
annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “old crop” MY 2013/14 had ranged from 4.638‐5.418
bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 ‐ the beginning of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.
Only 1 week of ethanol production for “new crop” MY 2014/15 has been reported to date by the EIA (i.e., the
week ending September 5th), with estimated corn use at a rate that would equal 5.168 bb for the marketing
year.
Over the period of from September 1, 2013 through August 29, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production
was been on pace to reach 5.073 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14. This estimate of 5.073 bb is less than the
USDA’s adjusted September 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.125 bb of corn to be used for ethanol
production during “old crop” MY 2013/14 (which had been raised 5 mb in the August WASDE report).
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
June 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
“New crop” DEC 2014 corn futures contract prices also responded in a volatile and ultimately negative
manner to the information in the June 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report CBOT DEC 2014 corn
futures prices opened at $4.45 per bushel, and traded as high as $4.48 ½ and as low as $4.39 during the
session, before settling at $4.41 ¾ – down $0.03 ¼ for the day (Figure 1). Since then DEC 2014 corn futures
JULY 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Oct. 17, 2013 – June 17, 2014
Close = $4.38 ¾ on 6/17/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Oct. 17, 2013 – June 17, 2014
Close = $4.39 ½ on 6/17/2014
Page | 3
prices have traded first higher and then lower – ranging from a high of $4.49 ¾ on Friday, June 13th to a low of
$4.36 ½ on Tuesday, June 17th before closing at $4.39 ½ on the same day.
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage, U.S. average
yield, and U.S. corn production. Updated estimates of U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage will be given in
the USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014. Any changes in projected U.S. corn
acreage will likely be included in the upcoming July 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Report.
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 91.691 million acres (ma), down from 95.365 ma in 2013,
97.155 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). No adjustments have been made in this
projection in the April‐May‐June USDA Crop Production or WASDE reports. In addition, the USDA projected
2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 84.3 ma, down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, but up
from 81.446 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.9%,
equal to 2013, but up from 89.9% in 2012 and 91.4% in 2011. The U.S. average and median (i.e., the 50th
percentile or “middle”) corn percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage over the years of 2000‐2013 has been
91.0% and 91.2% , with a high of 92.4% in 2010 and a low of 87.9% in 2002. Using the 2000‐2013 average
percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage proportion of 0.91 would lead to a projection of U.S. 2014 harvested
acres of 83.439 million acres – approximately 860,200 acres less than the USDA’s projection of 84.3 million
acres harvested.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 165.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, up
from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 yield of 123.4 bu/ac., and the historic high of 164.7 bu/ac
in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014
U.S. corn production to be a record high 13.935 billion bushels (bb) – which is up marginally from 13.925 bb in
2013, 10.780 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009and (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 15.111 bb – resulting
from beginning stocks of 1.146 bb, projected 2014 production of 13.935 bb, and projected imports of 30 mb
(Table 1). Total supplies of 15.111 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, comparable to
14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY
2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.932 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.781 bb in “current year” MY
2013/14. Beginning stocks of 1.146 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up sharply from 821 mb in “current
year” MY 2013/14, and are comparable to the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.050 bb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 is equal to 5.050 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14, while being up from 4.648 bb in
MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. Figure 5 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel
Page | 4
ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of
corn use developed by Kansas State University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn,
these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production
for “current” MY 2013/14 has ranged from 4.638‐5.262 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 ‐ the
beginning of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.
Over the period of from September 1, 2013 through May 2, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production has
been on pace to reach 5.027 bb in “current” MY 2013/14, with the period of June 7th through August 31st yet to
occur. This estimate of 5.027 bb is less than the USDA’s June 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.050 bb of corn
to be used for ethanol production during “current” MY 2013/14.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
December 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
s than during
the 2009/2010 through 2011/2012 period. Wheat prices in the U.S. are projected to be down to the lowest
levels in four years due to limited U.S. wheat exports and domestic livestock wheat feeding.
The USDA projects that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S.
hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states. Also, no other major production
problems in competing World wheat exporting countries have yet emerged to the degree that the “large crop‐
over‐supply” situation in World wheat markets has been affected. However, there are developing concerns
about dry wheat production conditions in Australia, crop quality problems in parts of Europe, and wheat
export supply availability from Russia and the Black Sea region. United States’ wheat exports have been
reduced by a recent strong positive trend in the U.S. dollar. The wheat market will now likely focus on weekly
export sales and shipments, the condition of U.S. and foreign crops in the field, Russian export supply news,
and the upcoming January 12, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production Annual Summary report.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA maintained its projection of lower 2014
U.S. wheat production, reduced total use, increased ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 vs a year ago. The USDA’s projected MY 2014/15 scenario is for a 2.026 billion
bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 2.795 bb total supplies (up 10 mb), 925 mb exports, 2.141 bb total use, 654
mb ending stocks (up 10 mb), 30.6% ending stocks‐to‐use (vs 30.1% last month), and a forecast U.S. price of
$6.00 /bu (range of $5.80 to $6.20) – compared to $5.65‐$6.15 ($5.90 midpoint) from November. If recent
wheat futures prices hold through May, the USDA “current crop” MY 2014/15 price may rise to near $6.38 /bu.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “current crop” MY 2014/15
supply‐demand balances and prices are essentially equal to the USDA’s except for the possibility of either
“Lower Export” or “Higher Export” scenarios, which are as follows. A) “Lower Export” Scenario: 10% prob. of
acreage, yields, production and total supplies being the same as those of the USDA, but with 125 mb less U.S.
wheat exports. This would result in 800 mb exports, 2.016 bb total use, 779 mb ending stocks, 38.64% S/U,
and a forecast price of $5.65‐6.15 /bu (midpoint of $5.90 – down from $6.00 for the USDA). Cash wheat prices
in the U.S. will need to decline to $5.20‐$5.25 for January‐May 2015 for this price forecast to occur. B) “Higher
Export” Scenario: 20% prob. of acreage, yields, production and total supplies being the same as those of the
USDA, but with 125 mb more U.S. wheat exports. This would result in 1.050 bb exports, 2.266 bb total use,
529 mb ending stocks, 23.35% S/U, and a forecast price of $6.60 /bu (up from the USDA midpoint of $6.00).
Cash wheat prices in the U.S. will need to rise to $7.75 for January‐May 2015 for this to occur.
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 907.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from
889.2 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 854.1 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “current
crop” MY 2014/15 of 194.9 mmt (27.4% S/U) are up from 185.3 mmt (26.3% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from
174.5 mmt (25.7% S/U) in MY 2012/13. For perspective, these figures can be compared to the historic World
wheat ending stocks and ending stocks‐to‐use minimums of 129.0 mmt and 21.0% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. December 2014 and Upcoming January 2015 USDA Reports
On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. wheat production estimates for 2014.
The December Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive
changes made from the November 10th Crop Production report. The next major survey based USDA report
addressing U.S. crop production for wheat, corn, other feedgrains, soybeans, and other major crops will be the
USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same
day USDA NASS will also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter
Wheat Seedings reports.
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. The “current crop” 2014/15 U.S.
wheat marketing year began June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015.
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $8.62 per bushel on May 6, 2014 for the MARCH 2015 contract, Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures trended sharply lower through the later part of September‐early October – with the
MARCH 2015 contract trading as low as $5.54 ¾ per bushel on October 1, 2014. This four month decline in
wheat market prices was attributed largely to a) unthreatened prospects for record large world wheat
production in the 2014/15 marketing year during this same time period, b) a second consecutive year of near
record large world coarse grain production which lessened the demand for wheat feed use, and c) an uptrend
in the value of the U.S. dollar against other major World currencies – making the effective price of U.S. wheat
higher for World import buyers.
However, since those wheat futures market lows in the last half of September‐early October ($5.54 on
10/1/2014), and again in early November ($5.70 ¼ on 11/10/2014), wheat futures markets have trended
higher. Reasons for this price uptrend include a) the onset and intensification of the most recent El Nino
weather pattern – which has caused dry growing conditions and reduced wheat production prospects in
Australia – a major World wheat exporter, and 2) emerging geopolitical, logistical and financial problems in the
Black Sea Region countries – posing a threat to their ability to supply wheat exports to World wheat markets.
On Wednesday, December 17th CME Hard Red Winter Wheat futures traded as high as $6.85 per bushel – up to
the highest level since July 8th of this year.
MARCH 2015 Hard Red Winter Wheat futures prices responded to the release of the December 10th USDA
reports by trading lower for the day. MARCH 2015 HRW wheat efutures prices opened at $6.22 ¾ on
Wednesday, December 10th the high for the day. The USDA reports were released at midday (i.e., 11 a.m.,
central time). Prices declined as low as $6.13 per bushel during the session before closing $0.04 ½ lower for
the day at $6.17 ½ /bu (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2015 HRW wheat efutures prices have trended higher,
rising from a low of $6.10 ½ on December 11th up to a high of $6.82 ¾ on December 17th before closing at
$6.81 ½ on that same day.
Page | 3
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
July 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
SEPT 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Nov. 13, 2013 – July 14, 2014
Close = $3.81 ½ on 7/14/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Oct. 17, 2013 – June 17, 2014
Close = $3.88 ¼ on 7/14/2014
Page | 3
“New crop” DEC 2014 corn futures contract prices also responded in a negative manner to the
information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report, CBOT DEC 2014 corn futures prices
opened at $3.92 ½ per bushel, and traded as high as $3.94 ¾ and as low as $3.82 ½ during the session, before
settling at $3.84 ¾ – also down $0.08 for the day (Figure 1). On Monday, July 14th DEC 2014 corn futures
prices first opened trade lower at $3.83 ½, trading in a range from a low of $3.80 ¼ to a high of $3.89 ¼, before
closing at $3.88 ¼ ‐ up $0.03 ½ for the day. The low price of $3.80 ¼ was also a record historic low for the
DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract.
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of June 30th USDA NASS Acreage report, the USDA projected that 2014 U.S. corn
total planted acreage would be 91.641 million acres (ma), down 50,000 acres from the March 31st USDA NASS
Prospective Plantings Report, and down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.155 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011
(Table 1 and Figure 2). In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 83.839 ma,
down from its June 11 WASDE report projection of 84.3 ma, and down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365
ma in 2012, but up from 81.446 ma in 2011. The 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S.
corn is projected to be 91.49%, down from 91.9% in to 2013, but up from 89.9% in 2012 and 91.4% in 2011.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 165.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is unchanged from the May‐
June WASDE reports, and would be a record high, up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low
yield of 123.4 bu/ac., and the historic high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014
acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production to be 13.860 billion bushels (bb) –
which would be the second highest amount on record, following the record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.780
bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 15.136 bb – resulting
from beginning stocks of 1.246 bb, projected 2014 production of 13.860 bb, and projected imports of 30
million bushel (mb) (Table 1). Total supplies of 15.136 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high,
comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest),
14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.932 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.781 bb in
“current year” MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).
Beginning stocks of 1.246 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up 100 mb from the June WASDE report, and
up sharply from both 821 mb in “current year” MY 2013/14, and from 989 mb in MY 2012/13. This amount of
beginning stocks is up considerably from the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97. Imports of 30 mb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 are the third highest on record, and are projected to be down from 35 mb in “current
year” MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest), and also down sharply from the record high of 162 mb in MY 2012/13.
These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.050 bb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 is down from to 5.075 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14 (up 25 mb from the June
Page | 4
WASDE report), while being up from 4.648 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12 (Figure 4). Figure 5
shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State University.
Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the equivalent
projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2013/14 has ranged from
4.638‐5.418 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 ‐ the beginning of the “current” 2013/14
marketing year.
Over the period of from September 1, 2013 through July 4, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production has
been on pace to reach 5.050 bb in “current” MY 2013/14, with the period of July 6th through August 31st
through the end of the current marketing year yet to occur. This estimate of 5.050 bb is less than the USDA’s
July 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.075 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current” MY
2013/14 (which had been raised 25 mb in the July WASDE report).
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
February 5, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
ginally raised its projection of U.S. 2013 planted and harvested acreage
to 95.4 and 87.7 million acres (ma), respectively, but lowered its estimate of 2013 U.S. corn yields of 158.8
bu/ac – down 1.6 bu/ac. The USDA lowered its forecast of “new crop” MY 2013/14 total supplies (14.781 bb –
down 61 mb) while raising total use (13.150 bb – up 100 mb) due to expectations of higher livestock feeding
and ethanol use, and lower non‐ethanol food, seed and industrial use. Taken together, these changes led to
projected MY 2013/14 ending stocks of 1.631 bb – down 161 mb from a month earlier, but still up from 821
mb in “old crop” MY 2012/13. Projected ending stocks‐to‐use of 12.4% for “new crop” MY 2013/14 has
trended lower since a projection of 14.7% in the November WASDE, but is still up sharply from 7.4% for “old
crop” MY 2012/13 and 7.9% in MY 2011/12. U.S. average corn prices for “new crop” MY 2013/14 are forecast
to be $4.10‐$4.70 / bu, down from a record high $6.89 /bu the previous year.
KSU Corn Early Forecasts for “Next Crop MY 2014/15”: KSU projections of 2014 U.S. corn production and
“next crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐demand and price scenarios are: a) “Low Yield, Acres & Production” Scenario:
20% prob. of 90.0 ma planted, 81.9 ma harvested, 154.4 bu/ac yields, a 12.645 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 12.1%
S/U, & $4.25‐$5.25 /bu; b) “Likely Trend Yield, Acres & Production” Scenario: 60% prob. of 92.5 ma planted,
84.2 ma harvested, 159.4 bu/ac yields, a 13.421 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 14.7% S/U, & $3.40‐$4.40 /bu; and c)
“High Yield, Acres & Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 95.0 ma planted, 86.5 ma harvested, record high 164.4
bu/ac yields, a 14.221 bb 2014 U.S. corn crop, 17.4% S/U, & $2.80‐$3.80 /bu.
World Corn: World corn total supplies of 1,100 mmt in “new crop” MY 2013/14 are up from 996 mmt in “old
crop” MY 2012/13, and from 1,015 mmt in MY 2011/12. Projected World corn ending stocks of 160.2 mmt
(17.0% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2013/14 are up from 133.0 mmt (15.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2012/13, and
from 132.8 mmt (15.0% S/U) in MY 2011/12. Corn production in South American is projected to be lower in the
coming year in favor of increased soybean production. Conversely, corn production in China and Ukraine are
projected to be sharply higher in the coming year – dampening to some degree U.S. corn export prospects.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. January 2014 USDA Reports
On January 10, 2014 the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released several pieces of
important grain market information. The USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released the
monthly Crop Production report for January, the annual January 2013 Crop Production Summary report, and
the Quarterly Grain Stocks report. In addition, the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released
its monthly January 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since January 10th Reports
“Old crop” corn futures markets responded quite positively to the information in these reports – at least
initially viewing them as supportive of corn market price prospects. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
March 2014 corn futures prices opened at $4.11 ½ per bushel on January 10th, and traded as low as $4.06 ¼
during the session (Figure 1). After these USDA report findings were publicly released at 12:00 noon eastern
time (11:00 a.m. central), March 2014 corn futures traded higher – up to a session high of $4.33, before closing
at $4.32 ¾. Since then March 2014 corn futures prices have traded in the range of a high of $4.35 ½ the next
trading day (January 13th), then trended down to a low of $4.21 on January 21st, before trending higher again ‐
closing near the high end of this range at $4.35 ¾ on Monday, February 2nd.
“New crop” corn futures markets also responded quite positively to the information in these. CME DEC
2014 corn futures prices opened at $4.38 ½ on January 10th, and traded as low as $4.37 during the session
(Figure 1). After these USDA report findings were publicly released at 12:00 noon eastern time, December
2014 corn futures traded higher – up to a session high and close of $4.57 ¾. The official close was listed even
higher, up to $4.58 ¼. Since then December 2014 corn futures prices have traded in the range of a high of
$4.58 ½ the next trading day (January 13th), then trended down to a low of $4.21 on January 21st, before
trending higher again ‐ closing near the high end of this range at $4.53 on Monday, February 2nd.
Figure 1. March 2014 and December 2014 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)
…
November 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
CME eCorn Futures
Mar. 19 – Nov. 14, 2014
Close = $4.06 ½ on 11/17/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Mar. 20 – Nov. 17, 2014
Close = $3.77 ½ on 11/17/2014
Page | 3
The “new crop” JULY 2015 corn futures market contract also responded in a moderately positive manner
to the information in the November 10th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Monday, November 10th –
CME JULY 2015 corn futures prices opened at $3.94 per bushel, trading within the range of $3.93 ¾ ‐ $4.07
during the session, before settling at $3.98 ½ – up $0.02 per bushel for the day (Figure 1). Since then, JULY
2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of $3.94 ½ on Tuesday, November 11th to a high of
$4.17 on Thursday, November 13th, before closing at $4.06 ½ on Monday, November 17th.
Question: Do the prices in early October represent a fall harvest low?
In hindsight now it seems that the upward trend in DEC 2014 and JULY 2015 corn futures prices since the
$3.46 ¾ low trading price on October 1, 2014 may signal that the fall harvest market low in corn futures prices
has occurred. Of course the results of the December 2014 and the January 2015 USDA crop production and
WASDE reports and the grain market’s reaction to them as well as other possible market influencing factors
will be key determinants as to whether these price levels ultimately represent the fall harvest “lows” for this
grain marketing year.
A time of seasonal market weakness typically has occurred during the months of January‐February in large
crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again sometime before spring,
2015. However, the $3.46 ¾ low on October 1st will be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 or CME
MAY 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal price decline occur in coming months.
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – USDA Projections for “New Crop” 2014/15
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA projected that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 90.885 million acres (ma) –
unchanged from October (Table 1 and Figure 2). Planted acreage of 90.885 million acres in 2014 is down from
95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012 (adjusted 116,000 acres higher by the USDA), and 91.936 ma in 2011.
In addition, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 83.097 ma – unchanged from October
but down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, while still being up from 81.446 ma in 2011. The
2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.4%, down from 91.9%
in to 2013, but up from 89.8% in 2012, and equal to 91.4% in 2011.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, but is
down from the earlier USDA projection of 174.2 bu/ac in October (Table 1 and Figure 3). This projection of
173.4 bu/ac in November is up from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac.,
and up from the previous historic high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009. Based on these 2014 acreage and yield
forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S. corn production to be 14.407 billion bushels (bb) – which would be
the highest amount on record, larger than the current record high of 13.925 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb in 2012
(adjusted lower by 25 million bushels or “mb”), 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009
(Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.668 bb
– resulting from beginning stocks of 1.236 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.407 bb, and projected imports
of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Total supplies of 15.668 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are
Page | 4
comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest),
14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.782 bb in
“old crop” MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).
Beginning stocks of 1.236 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are unchanged from October, but down from an
early season projection of 1.246 bb by the USDA in the July 2014 WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Projected beginning stocks of 1.236 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up sharply from 821 mb in “old crop”
MY 2013/14, and from 989 mb in MY 2012/13. This amount of beginning stocks is up considerably from the
low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97. Imports of 25 mb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be
down from 36 mb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest), and also down sharply from the record high of
160 mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13 marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable
to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.150 bb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 is up 25 mb from September‐October – following from expectations of low corn input
prices and a continuation of at least marginal profitability for U.S. ethanol production (Table 1 and Figures 5‐
6). This projection of 5.150 bb in “new crop” MY 2013/14 is up from 5.134 bb in “old crop” MY 2013/14 (up 4
mb), while being up from 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12.
Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the
equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “new crop” MY 2014/15 has
ranged from 4.911‐5.278 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “new crop”
2014/15 marketing year. Over the period of from September 1, 2014 through November 7, 2014, corn usage
for ethanol production was been on pace to reach 5.085 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15. This estimate of 5.085
bb is less than the USDA’s adjusted November 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.150 bb of corn to be used for
ethanol production during “new crop” MY 2014/15, with 10 of 52 weeks for the marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
Breakout Sessions
first-hand knowledge with livestock
production, Glynn has expertise …