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March 25, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Wheat Market Overview
Hard red winter wheat market prices in the U.S. have weakened considerably since late January
2019. Ongoing weakness in export shipments of U.S. wheat on the one hand, and declining prospects
for future U.S. wheat export sales on the other, have been the main causes along with general
bearishness across grain futures prices.
In Fall‐Winter 2018 prospects for short wheat crops among some major World wheat exporters
improved prospects for U.S. export sales in the later part of the “current” 2018/19 marketing year
(MY). “Current” MY 2018/19 began on 6/1/2018 and will finish on 5/31/2019. In particular, short
crops in the Black Sea Region countries of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, parts of the European
Union (France and other countries), and Australia were of concern.
However, a combination of #1) large carryover stocks in World markets from “old crop” MY
2017/18, #2) successful wheat crops in many other exporting and importing countries in the World,
and #3) the willingness of the Black Sea Region countries to sell down their domestic reserve stocks
to maintain their export market shares, worked together to limit any improvement in U.S. wheat
exports, and consequently limit any price gains from such an event.
The selling off of domestic inventories may have allowed Russia and other countries to have
maintained their export market shares in “current” MY 2018/19, but it makes them more vulnerable
to any repeated crop shortfalls that could occur in “new crop” MY 2019/20 – which will begin on June
1, 2019. The risk of tightening stocks is that these countries place themselves at risk to the effect of
market shortfalls in the future – because they have reduced their “buffer” stocks.
Going forward, it seems that wheat production risk in the major exporting countries – including
the United States, Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the European Union – will be the key driving factor
in U.S. grain markets in year 2019. The possibility of rumored sizable increases in Chinese purchases
of U.S. wheat and other agricultural products IF a trade agreement between the U.S. and China is
completed could provide a surprise boost to U.S. wheat exports in coming months. But it seems
judicious to not count on that occurring until such a trade agreement is finalized.
B. Trends in CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Prices for the MAY 2019 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Kansas Hard Red Winter (HRW)
Wheat futures contract declined from a high of $5.23 per bushel (/bu) on January 25, 2019 to a low of
$4.18 ¼ /bu on March 12th, a drop of $1.04 ¼ or 20%. Since then, MAY 2019 CME HRW wheat has
moved higher to a close of $4.45 on March 22nd – down 15% from late‐Jan. 2019 highs (Figures 1‐2‐
3abc).
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Currently CME MAY 2019 Kansas HRW Wheat futures are trading near historic lows since the
beginning of year 2007. Prices for MAY 2019 futures in the $4.40‐$4.50 range compare to longter
term lows of: a) $4.33 /bu for the MAY 2007 contract on 4/2/2007; b) $3.98 ¾ /bu for MAY 2017 on
4/21/2019; and $4.04 /bu for DEC 2017 on 11/28/2018. IF crop conditions and crop progress for the
2019 U.S. HRW Wheat crop are “good” in April 2019 it is possible that prices could AGAIN decline to
$4.00 /bu or less (Figures 1‐2).
It is notable that a record large net short (or sell) position is held by Management Money
(Speculator) trade …
December 30, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
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August 1, 2010
Production Publications
of 2007-2009 Kansas
Farm Management Association Crop Enterprises
August … of 2007-2009 Kansas Farm Management Association Crop Enterprises … profitability, producers’ management
abilities impact their relative …
June 24, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
The U.S. Corn Market Situation on June 24, 2019
The serious and prolonged excess moisture problems during the 2019 spring planting season for
U.S. corn have led to a sharp reduction in 2019 U.S. corn production prospects. In some areas of the
U.S. Corn Belt the historic extremely moist field condition situation that began during April‐May has
persisted through June 2019 – beyond crop insurance full coverage deadlines and the physiological
limits of a normal annual planting / growing season.
The strong likelihood of a major U.S. corn production shortfall in year 2019 has brought about the
strong likelihood of a classic “short crop” scenario occurring for U.S. corn in the “new crop” 2019/20
marketing year. The last major “short crop” marketing year for U.S. corn occurred seven (7) years ago
in year 2012 due to extreme summer heat and accompanying crop stress – rather than the over‐
abundance of rainfall with accompanying flooding and soggy fields that has occurred in Spring 2019.
In so many words, calendar year 2019 has already become a unique, “analog” year in terms of
how spring moisture has delayed or prevented U.S. corn plantings. What remains to be seen are that
actual, physical “numbers” for planted and harvested U.S. corn acres, the rate of crop development
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and eventual degree of physiological maturity in the fall of 2019, and the final size and quality of the
2019 U.S. corn crop going into “new crop” MY 2019/20.
These U.S. corn supply concerns have driven corn futures sharply higher in recent weeks as the
corn market anticipates how sharply reduced 2019 U.S. corn production would lead to much tighter
U. S. corn supply‐demand balances and the need for price rationing of usage in “new crop” MY
2019/20 (beginning on September 1, 2019).
For example, “old crop” JULY 2019 Corn futures prices have increased from a low of $3.43 per
bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.38 on May 29th, and then up to a high of $4.64 ¼ on June 17th,
before closing lower at $4.47 on June 24th. Similarly, “new crop” DEC 2019 Corn futures prices have
increased from a low $3.63 ¾ per bushel on May 13th to a high of $4.54 on May 29th, and then
likewise up to a high of $4.73 on June 17th, before closing lower at $4.57 ¼ on June 24th . (Figures 1 &
2a‐b). With this rally in corn futures, managed money (specs) traders who …
December 17, 2015
KFMA Research
of 2010-2014 Kansas Farm Management Association
Cow-Calf Enterprise … enrolled in the Kansas Farm
Management Association (KFMA) between … of 2008-2012 Kansas Farm Management Association Cow-Calf Enterprise.” …
December 1, 2015
Beef Cattle
of 2010-2014 Kansas Farm Management Association
Cow-Calf Enterprise … enrolled in the Kansas Farm
Management Association (KFMA) between … of 2008-2012 Kansas Farm Management Association Cow-Calf Enterprise.” …
July 21, 2025
Crop Insurance Papers
production. The USDA Risk Management Agency
(RMA) administers …
December 17, 2015
KFMA Research
of 2010-2014 Kansas Farm Management Association
Cow Calf Enterprise … producers.2 Based on Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) data for … producers such that they can manage this
important cost for …
December 1, 2015
Beef Cattle
of 2010-2014 Kansas Farm Management Association
Cow Calf Enterprise … producers.2 Based on Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) data for … producers such that they can manage this
important cost for …
Breakout Sessions
of crop marketing and farm management. She grew up
on a cattle … majoring in Agribusiness Management. Her PhD in Economics is … 9%
2014 Non‐Irrigated Land Values
$2,296
$2,060
$1,472
$3,239
$2,825
$2,852
$5,133
$3,888
$3,140
2014 Pasture Land Values
$1,385
$1,242
$887
$1,953
$1,703
$1,720
$3,095
$2,344
$1,893
2014 Irrigated Land Values
$5,970
$5,413
$3,389
‐‐‐
‐‐‐
$6,008
‐‐‐
‐‐‐
‐‐‐
RENTS AND NET FARM INCOME
Returns to Farming
Source: KS Farm Management Association
Updated …