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October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Corn Futures Positions of Traders (CFTC Data)
Position of traders data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is available from
the CFTC at the following web address: https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm The CFTC
position of traders data on October 9th shows are more stable picture of corn futures trader sentiments that
may have been otherwise expected. This is especially true in regards to the quantity of long futures positions
held by Management Money (Speculator or “Spec”) traders than otherwise expected given harvest time
futures prices.
Net Positions of Commercial & Spec Traders: The net “short” or “sell” positions of CME Corn futures
speculative or “management money” traders declined to 197 million bushels (mb) on October 9, 201– down
to the smallest net “bearish” or sell position since June 12, 2018 (Figure 3a). This may be due to a perception
that a “harvest low” may have been reached in DEC 2018 corn futures. The net short position of commercial
hedgers on October 9th was 1.205 bb, up from a net short position of 824 mb on September 18th, but less than
net short positions ranging from 2.101 bb‐2.143 bb for the 7/27/2018 ‐ 6/12/2018 period, and 1.313 bb‐1.339
bb during the 7/31/2018‐8/21/2018 time frame. The net position of index traders were consistently long
during the 6/12/2018‐10/9/2018 period, in the 822 mb‐988 mb range (972 mb long on 10/9/2018).
Commercial Hedgers Long & Short Positions: Both the “short / sell” and “long / buy” positions of CME
Corn futures commercial hedgers has remained relatively consistent since early July 2018 (Figure 3b). Total
commercial hedger “short / sell” positions have ranged from 2.328 bb to 2.617 bb during the 7/3/2018‐
10/9/2018 period, with 2.328 bb in “short / sell” positions on 10/9/2018. The typical grain futures transactions
and positions of commercial grain elevators and/or farmer hedgers would fall in this category. Commercial
hedger “long / buy” positions have ranged from 3.392 bb to 3.859 bb during the same period, with 3.532 bb in
“long / buy” positions on 10/9/2018. The typical grain futures transactions and positions of commercial grain
processors, ethanol plants, and livestock feeders would fall in this category.
Managed Money (Specs) Long & Short Positions: Both the “short / sell” and “long / buy” positions of CME
Corn futures management money (speculative) traders has remained relatively consistent since early August
2018 (Figure 3c). Total speculator’s “short / sell” positions have ranged from 1.204 bb to 1.334 bb during the
8/7/2018‐10/9/2018 period, with 1.261 bb in “short / sell” positions on 10/9/2018. Speculator’s “long / buy”
positions have ranged from 1.458 bb to 1.996 bb during the same period, with 1.458 bb in “long / buy”
positions on 10/9/2018.
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November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Commercial Hedgers Long & Short Positions: Both the “short / sell” and “long / buy” positions of CME
Corn futures commercial hedgers has remained relatively consistent since early July 2018 (Figure 3b).
Total commercial hedger “short / sell” positions have ranged from 3.532 bb to 3.890 bb during the
10/2/2018‐11/13/2018 period, with 3.890 bb in “short / sell” positions on 11/13/2018. The typical
grain futures transactions and positions of commercial grain elevators and/or farmer hedgers would
fall in this “short position” category. Commercial hedger “long / buy” positions have ranged from
2.237 bb to 2.514 bb during the same period, with 2.514 bb in “long / buy” positions on 11/13/2018.
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The typical grain futures transactions and positions of commercial grain processors, ethanol plants,
and livestock feeders would fall in this “long position” category.
…
December 13, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Commercial Hedgers Long & Short Positions: Both the “short / sell” and “long / buy” positions of CME
Corn futures commercial hedgers has remained relatively consistent since early July 2018 (Figure 3b).
Total commercial hedger “short / sell” positions have ranged from 3.532 bb to 3.916 bb during the
10/2/2018‐12/4/2018 period, with 3.727 bb in “short / sell” positions on 12/4/2018. Typical risk
management‐related grain futures transactions and positions of commercial grain elevators and/or
farmer hedgers would fall in this “short position” category. Commercial hedger “long / buy” positions
have ranged from 2.237 bb to 2.514 bb during the same period, with 2.674 bb in “long / buy” positions
on 12/4/2018. Typical risk management grain futures transactions and positions of commercial grain
processors, ethanol plants, and livestock feeders would fall in this “long position” category.
…
September 5, 2018
Beef Cattle, KFMA Research
at:
http://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/production-economics/differences-between-high-medium-and-low-profit-cow-calf … percentage variable is for
all livestock, not just beef cows. The … their farm labor allocated to livestock
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