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June 1, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ach
still impact corn market prices through summer‐fall 2016. However, farmer resistance to “old crop” cash sales
will be forced to give way in coming months as the 2016 U.S. corn crop develops and approaches harvest in
coming months. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock
feeding and bioenergy users – leading to strong domestic and foreign feedgrain usage and providing
underlying support for U.S. corn exports. In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S.
dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop have been significant limiting factors for U.S.
corn exports – although the U.S. dollar has been trending lower since early February 2016 – coinciding with
moderately improved U.S. corn exports.
USDA Estimate for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn supply‐demand
balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and total supplies
of 15.387 bb for MY 2015/16 (up 5 million bushels or ‘mb’ due to increased imports). Total use is projected to
be 13.585 bb (up 64 mb). Ethanol use was projected to be 5.250 bb, with non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and
Industrial (FSI) use of 1.360 bb (down 11 mb), exports of 1.725 bb (up 75 mb), and feed and residual use of
5.250 bb. Ending stocks are forecast to be down 59 mb to 1.803 bb (13.27% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 –
up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn
average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.50‐$3.70 /bu. ($3.60 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA provided it’s first WASDE report forecast “new crop”
MY 2016/17 forecast for U.S. corn – relying on the USDA March 31st Prospective Planting report planted
acreage forecast and a number of other harvested acreage and yield assumptions. Projected 2016 U.S. corn
plantings equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately 85.893
ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is
projected to be a record 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 14.120 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of
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2.153 bb (15.24% S/U) – up from 1.803 bb (13.27% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – U.S. corn prices are
projected by the USDA to be in the range of $3.05‐$3.65 (midpoint = $3.35 /bu) – with the midpoint of $3.35
being down from the $3.60 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 40%
likelihood of occurring by Kansas State University.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 ma downward adjustment in 2016
U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report. A) KSU “trend yield”
scenario (30% probability) assumes the following for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma
harvested, 164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.908 bb production, 15.751 bb total supplies, 13.637 bb total use, 2.114
bb ending stocks, 15.50% S/U, & $3.30 /bu U.S. corn average price; B) KSU “moderate drought” scenario (20%
prob.) assumes 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac yield, 13.358 bb production, 15.206 bb
total supplies, 13.497 bb total use, 1.709 bb ending stocks, 12.66% S/U, & $3.75 /bu U.S. corn price; and C)
KSU “serious drought” scenario (10% prob.) assumes 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac
yield, 12.682 bb production, 14.535 bb total supplies, 13.257 bb total use, 1.278 bb ending stocks, 9.6% S/U, &
$4.40 /bu U.S. corn price.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,011.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,176.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.7 mmt in MY
2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 207.0 mmt (20.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up
from 207.87 mmt (21.5% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from 207.88 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY
2014/15.
…
February 11, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
sition”‐ related weather
patterns in spring‐summer 2016 with negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each still impact corn market
prices through summer‐fall 2016. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign
livestock feeding and bioenergy users – leading to increased feedgrain usage. The high value of the U.S. dollar and
prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop have been significant limiting factors for U.S. corn exports.
USDA Estimate for “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA estimated 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 that there would be total supplies of 15.382 bb. Total use of 13.545 bb (down 25 million bushels or
‘mb”) – which includes ethanol use of 5.225 bb (up 25 mb over 1 month ago), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.370 bb, exports of
1.650 bb (down 50 mb from January, and 100 mb from December projections), and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb.
Ending stocks are forecast at 1.837 bb (13.56% S/U) in MY 2015/16 – up 35 mb from last month, and up from 1.731 bb
(12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn average cash prices are forecast
the range of $3.35‐$3.85 /bu. ($3.60 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89
(record) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their early release Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA provided an
initial forecast of U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning September 1,
2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.500 million acres (ma) – up 2.501 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016
harvested acres of 82.700 ma would be up 1.951 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn
production is projected to be 13.900 billion bushels (bb) – 2nd highest on record behind 14.216 bb in 2014. With forecast
MY 2016/17 total use of 13.935 bb (record high), and an adjusted projection of ending stocks of 1.832 bb (13.15% S/U),
U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.60 /bu – unchanged from the $3.60 /bu midpoint estimate for “new
crop” MY 2015/16.
KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on adjustments to the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025, KSU
projections are for 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.500 (unchanged from the USDA), but with 2016 harvested acres of
83.079 ma (91.8% harvested‐to‐planted, equal to MY 2015/16), with trend yields of 164.5 bu/ac, and 2016 U.S. corn
production of 13.666 bb. With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.760 bb, and an adjusted projection of ending stocks of
1.773 bb (12.89% S/U), U.S. corn prices are projected by KSU to be $3.70 /bu – up $0.10 /bu from the USDA’s early
projection for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
KSU 2016 U.S. Corn “Short Crop Scenario – 13.000 Billion Bushels: If significant corn production problems were to occur
in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in a 13.000 bb corn (156.5 bu/ac yield on 83.079 ma harvested), then all else
being equal, ending stocks in “next crop” MY 2016/17 could decline to 1.107 bb (8.0% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely to
increase to $5.00‐$5.50 per bushel.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,176.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new crop” MY
2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.1 mmt in MY 2013/14.
Projected World corn ending stocks of 208.8 mmt (21.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 206.2 mmt (21.1%
S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.8 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. February 9th USDA WASDE Report
On February 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 9th World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
Since a low of $3.48 ½ on January 7, 2016, MARCH 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices traded up to a high of $3.73 ¾ on February 2nd, but have since declined to a close of
$3.60 ¼ on Wednesday, February 10th (Figure 1). Similarly, since a low of $3.74 ½ on January 7,
2016, MARCH 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices traded up to a high of
$3.95 on February 4th, but have since declined to a close of $3.83 ½ on Wednesday, February 10th.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Weekly Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
June 15, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
CME eCorn Futures
Oct. 15, 2014 – June 12, 2015
Close = $3.69 ½ on 6/12/2015
JULY 2015 CME eCorn Futures
Oct. 15, 2014 – June 12, 2015
Close = $3.53 on 6/12/2015
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I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – Focus on “New Crop” 2015/16 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
In the March 31, 2015 USDA Prospective Plantings report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn total
planted acreage would be 89.199 million acres (ma), down 2.398 ma (‐1.5%) from 90.597 ma in 2014, down
6.166 ma (‐6.5%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.092 ma (‐8.3%) from 97.291 ma in 2012, and down from
91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3). The USDA has maintained the same assumption about U.S. corn
planted acreage in the May and June WASDE reports. However, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) will release the annual Acreage report on June 30th in which changes in the USDA’s projection
of 2015 U.S. corn acreage may occur.
Given the USDA’s implicit assumption of an average harvested‐to‐planted acreage of 91.6%, 2015 U.S. corn
harvested acreage would be approximately 81.715 ma, down 1.421 ma (‐1.7%) from 83.136 ma in 2014, down
5.736 ma (‐6.6%) from 87.451 ma in 2013, down 5.650 ma (‐6.5%) from 87.365 ma in 2012, and down from
83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from
the January‐May USDA reports, and is higher than the 166.8 bu/ac estimate for 2015 in the June WASDE report
(Table 1 and Figure 4). Although this early 2015 USDA projection of 166.8 bu/ac is down from 171.0 bu/ac in
2014, it would be the second highest U.S. corn yield on record, being up from 158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought
affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010, and up from the previous
historic record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (89.199 ma – from the USDA),
harvested acreage (81.715 ma – a KSU assumption calculated by dividing the USDA’s 2015 production forecast
by the 2015 yield projection), and yield (166.8 ma – USDA), 2015 U.S. corn production would be 13.630 billion
bushels (bb) – down from the record high of 14.216 bb 2014, and the previous record high of 13.829 bb in
2013 – but up from 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.314 bb in 2011, 12.425 bb in 2010, and 13.067 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are a record high 15.531 bb
– up 25 million bushels (mb) from the May WASDE report. This projection of 15.531 bb for “new crop” MY
2015/16 results from beginning stocks of 1.876 bb, projected 2015 production of 13.630 bb, and projected
imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 5). Total supplies of near 15.531 bb in “new crop” MY
2015/16 would be a record high, being comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09,
14.749 bb in MY 2009/10, 14.161 bb in MY 2010/11, 13.471 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in “short crop” MY
2012/13, 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14, and the previous record high of 15.472 bb in “current” MY 2014/15.
The USDA forecast of beginning stocks of 1.876 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up 25 mb from the May
WASDE report, and is also substantially from 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 821
mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, and at least moderately larger than
1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This amount of beginning
stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 1.851 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY
1996/97, and is the highest since 1.967 bb in MY 2006/07 and 2.114 bb in MY 2005/07 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
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Projected imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are equal to “current” MY 2014/15, but down
from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest on record), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160
mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13 marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to
29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.200 bb in
“new crop” MY 2015/16 is up from 5.175 bb in “current” MY 2014/15 (down 25 mb from May), and up from
5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figures 6‐7).
Figure 7 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion
of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate
of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.830‐5.438 bb on a
weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over
the period of September 1, 2014 through June 5, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to
reach 5.175 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This estimate of 5.175 bb is equal to the USDA’s June 10, 2015
WASDE report estimate of 5.175 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current crop” MY
2014/15, with 40 of 52 weeks (76.9%) of the marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
December 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
n spring‐summer 2016 with negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each
still impact corn market prices through summer‐fall 2016. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower
input costs – supporting the profitability for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and bioenergy users and leading
to increased feedgrain usage. The high value of the U.S. dollar has been a limiting factor for U.S. corn exports.
USDA Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.654 billion
bushels (bb), and for “new crop” MY 2015/16 that there would be total supplies of 15.415 bb, and total use of
13.630 bb (down 25 mb) – which includes ethanol use of 5.200 bb (up 25 mb over 1 month ago), non‐ethanol
FSI use of 1.380 bb, exports of 1.750 bb (down 25 mb from November and 75 mb from October projections)
and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.785 bb (13.54% S/U) in MY 2015/16 – up
25 mb from last month, and up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15. U.S. corn average cash
prices are forecast the range of $3.35‐$3.95 /bu. ($3.65 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15,
$4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record) in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “USDA S/D Estimates” Scenario (80% prob.): All supply‐demand assumptions equal
to the USDA’s, but with $3.60 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Smaller Crop” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S.
corn yield of 167.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.470 bb, total supplies of 15.232 bb, total use of
13.630 bb, ending stocks of 1.602 bb, 11.75% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Economic
Problems” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S. corn production and supplies equal to the USDA estimates, but lower
total use of 13.435 bb, ending stocks of 1.980 bb, 14.7% S/U, & $3.40 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA provided an
initial forecast of U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning
September 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.5 million acres (ma) – up 2.119 ma
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 82.7 ma would be 2.036 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of
168.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is projected to be 13.900 billion bushels (bb) – 2nd highest on record.
With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.935 bb (record high), and ending stocks of 1.780 bb (12.77% S/U),
U.S. corn prices are projected to be $3.60 /bu – down marginally from $3.65 /bu in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,182.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.3 mmt in
MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 211.9 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up
from 208.2 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.9 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. December 2015 USDA WASDE Report
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME MARCH 2016 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2016 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off MARCH corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” MARCH 2016 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “neutral” manner to the information
in the December 9th USDA reports, and in the days afterward has trended sideways‐to‐higher before declining
sharply on Wednesday, Ed. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session,
i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Wednesday, December 9th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
corn futures prices opened at $3.73 ½ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.70 ¼ ‐ $3.79 ¼ during the
session, before settling at $3.73 ¾ – up $0.00 ¼ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2016 Corn has
traded from a low of $3.62 ½ on December 17th high of $3.80 ¼ on December 11th to a before closing at $3.74
½ on Friday, December 18th.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Weekly Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
October 27, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
…
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. corn and other U.S.
grain markets, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it
more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which
they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S.
dollars in U.S. grain markets). Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. grain exports, it is a
very important one – working against U.S. corn being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in
World grain trade.
I‐E. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA’s projections of 2015 U.S. corn planted acres from the March 31st Prospective Plantings report
were adjusted downward in the USDA June 30th Acreage report, and had been used without adjustment by
the USDA through the July 10th, August 12th, and September 11th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports,
but were adjusted downward in the October 9th USDA reports. The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn
planted acreage equaled 88,381,000 acres, down 516,000 acres from a month earlier. This projection of
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Page | 5
88.381 million acres (ma) of 2015 U.S. corn planted is down 2.216 ma (‐2.45%) from 90.597 ma in 2014, down
6.984 ma (‐7.3%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.910 ma (‐9.16%) from the record high of 97.291 ma in 2012,
and also down from 91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
The USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn harvested acreage would be 80,664,000 acres – down 437,000
acres from a month earlier. This projection of 80.664 ma is down 2.472 ma (‐3.0%) from 83.136 ma in 2014,
down 6.787 ma (‐7.8%) from the record high of 87.451 ma in 2013, down 6.701 ma (‐7.7%) from 87.365 ma in
2012, and down from 83.981 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The USDA implicitly projected that the
proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage in 2015 is 91.3%, down from 91.8% in 2014, and from 91.7% in
2013, but up from 89.9% in drought‐stricken 2012.
The USDA forecast 2015 U.S. average corn yields to be 168.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – up 0.5 bu/ac from
the USDA’s September projection, but still less than the record high of 171.0 bu/ac in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure
5). Although this October 2015 USDA projection of 2015 U.S. corn yields of 168.0 bu/ac is down from the
record 171.0 bu/ac in 2014, it would still be the second highest U.S. corn yield to date, being up from 158.1
bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010,
and still up from the previous historic record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
Based on this combination of USDA projections for 2015 planted acreage (88.381 ma), harvested acreage
(80.664 ma), and yield (168.0 ma – USDA), projected 2015 U.S. corn production would be 13.555 billion
bushels (bb) – down 30 million bushels (mb) from the USDA’s September projections, and down 131 mb from
August. This projection of 13.555 bb U.S. corn production in 2015 is the 3rd highest on record, being down
from the record high of 14.216 bb in 2014, and the 2nd highest amount of 13.829 bb in 2013. However, this
projection of 13.555 bb in 2015 would still be up from 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.314 bb in 2011, 12.425 bb in
2010, and 13.067 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are 15.316 bb – down 31
mb from September, and down 141 million bushels (mb) from the August WASDE report. This projection of
15.316 bb for “new crop” MY 2015/16 results from beginning stocks of 1.731 bb, projected 2015 production of
13.5585 bb, and projected imports of 30 mb (Table 1 and Figure 6). Since the beginning of the expansion in
U.S. ethanol production in 2006‐2007, total supplies of U.S. corn have been 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729
bb in MY 2008/09, 14.749 bb in MY 2009/10, 14.161 bb in MY 2010/11, 13.471 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in
“short crop” MY 2012/13, 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14, the estimated highest amount on record of 15.479 bb in
“old crop” MY 2014/15, and the forecast 2nd highest amount on record of 15.316 bb in “new crop” MY
2015/16.
The USDA forecast of beginning stocks of 1.731 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down 1 mb from
September and down 41 mb from the August 12th WASDE report, but up substantially from 1.232 bb in
beginning stocks in “old crop” MY 2014/15, 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in
MY 2011/12 – while being up at least marginally from 1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and
1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This amount of beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 1.731 bb is up
considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY 1996/97, and is the highest amount since 1.967 bb in
MY 2006/07 and 2.114 bb in MY 2005/06 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Projected imports of 30 mb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down 2 mb from 32 mb in “old crop” MY
2014/15, down from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest on record), and are down sharply from the record
Page | 6
high of 160 mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13 marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are
comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11, but up from 8 mb in MY 2009/10.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.250 bb in
“new crop” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from August‐September, but up 50 mb from July, and is up from 5.207
bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (up 2 mb), and up from 5.124 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and
5.000 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figures 7‐8).
Figure 7 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion
of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate
of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “new crop” MY 2015/16 has ranged from 5.142‐5.268 bb on a
weekly basis since early September 2015 ‐ the beginning of the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year. To datd
in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, corn usage for ethanol production has been on pace to reach 5.202
bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – less than the USDA’s October 9, 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.250 bb of
corn to be used for ethanol production. However, the USDA is likely accounting for larger available U.S. corn
supplies being available to ethanol plants / producers through the 2015 fall harvest and 2016 early spring
periods.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
March 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – USDA “Current Crop” 2014/15 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
In its March 2015 USDA WASDE report the USDA made no change from the January‐February WASDE
reports in its projection that 2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage was 90.597 million acres (ma), which had
been adjusted down from 90.885 ma in the December WASDE report (Table 1 and Figure 2). Planted acreage
of 90.597 million acres in 2014 is down from 95.365 ma in 2013, 97.291 ma in 2012, and 91.921 ma in 2011.
In addition, the USDA made no change in its January‐February projections of 2014 U.S. corn harvested
acreage of 83.136 ma, which had been adjusted upwards from 83.097 ma in December. Harvested acreage of
83.136 ma in 2014 is down from 87.451 ma in 2013, 87.365 ma in 2012, and 83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.8% ‐ which had
been adjusted up from 91.4% in December. This proportion of harvested acreage in 2014 of 91.8% is up
marginally from 91.7% in to 2013, and up from 89.9% in 2012, and 91.4% in 2011.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and
unchanged from the January‐February USDA reports, but is down from earlier USDA projections of 173.4 bu/ac
in December and 174.2 bu/ac in October 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 3). This projection of 171.0 bu/ac is up from
158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., and up from the previous record high
of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
Based on these 2014 acreage and yield projections, the USDA maintained is earlier January‐February
projection that 2014 U.S. corn production to be a record high 14.216 billion bushels (bb) – down from 14.407
bb in the December USDA reports. The projection of a record high 14.216 bb is up from the previous record
high of 13.829 bb in 2013, 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009
(Table 1 and Figure 4).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.472
bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.232 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.216 bb, and projected
DEC 2015 CME eCorn Futures
Sept. 11, 2014 – March 13, 2015
Close = $4.04 ¾ on 3/13/2015
MAY 2015 CME eCorn Futures
Sept. 11, 2014 – March 13, 2015
Close = $3.80 ½ on 3/13/2015
Page | 4
imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Total supplies of 15.472 bb in “current crop” MY
2014/15 are comparable to recent year’s amounts of 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09,
14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904
bb in “short crop” MY 2012/13, and 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14 (2nd highest).
Beginning stocks of 1.232 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally (down 4 mb) from the
October‐December USDA WASDE reports. The total of 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY
2014/15 is up from 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, but less than
1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This amount of beginning
stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.232 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in
MY 1996/97 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the
2nd highest on record), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought‐stressed
2012/13 marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28
mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.200 bb in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is down 50 mb from February, but still up from 5.175 bb in January and from 5.150
bb in the December WASDE report. These adjustments in the USDA projections are due to a) low corn input
prices, b) at least moderate strength in distillers grains co‐product prices, and c) increased projections of 2015
U.S. gasoline consumption released in the past month (Table 1 and Figures 5‐6). This projection of 5.200 bb in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY
2011/12.
Figure 6 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion
of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate
of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.772‐5.374 bb on a
weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over
the period of from September 1, 2014 through March 6, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on
pace to reach 5.127 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This estimate of 5.127 bb is 73 mb less than the USDA’s
March 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.200 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current
crop” MY 2014/15, with 27 of 52 weeks (51.9%) of the marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
S.
farmer resistance to selling 2015 crop corn at lower than hoped for 2016 cash corn prices to‐date as both
winter wheat or fall crop harvests approach requiring both commercial and on‐farm storage space, 2)
continued stronger‐than‐anticipated use of 2015 crop U.S. corn in ethanol production, livestock feeding or
exports resulting from low U.S. feedgrain prices and moderating U.S. dollar values (exports), and 3) the
possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and
other commodity markets – such as unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal
Reserve affecting U.S. interest rates, or crucial foreign economic occurrences such as the European Union vote
on British membership. For the early part of “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S.
dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop were significant limiting factors for U.S. corn
exports – although developing crop problems in Brazil and declines in the value of U.S. dollar since early
February 2016 have coincided with improved U.S. corn exports in May‐June 2016.
USDA Supply‐Demand & Prices for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn
supply‐demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16. While the estimate of 2015 U.S. corn
production of 13.601 billion bushels (bb) was unchanged, and total supplies of 15.392 bb for MY 2015/16 were
up 5 million bushels or ‘mb’ due to increased imports. Total use is projected to be 13.685 bb – up 100 million
bushels (mb) due to a 100 mb increase in projected exports – up to 1.825 bb. Ethanol use (5.250 bb), non‐
ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use (1.360 bb), and feed and residual use (5.250 bb) were all
unchanged. Ending stocks are forecast to be down 95 mb to 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 –
down from 1.731 bb (12.59% S/U) in MY 2014/15, but up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn
average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.60‐$3.80 /bu. ($3.70 midpoint) versus $3.70 in MY
2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA projected that 2016 U.S. corn
plantings would equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately
85.893 ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is
forecast to be a record high 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
Page | 2
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.178 bb (record high), total use of 14.170 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.008 bb (14.17% S/U) – up from 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 and the highest since 2.114 bb (19.83% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the
USDA to be in the range of $3.20‐$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50 /bu) – being down from the $3.70 /bu midpoint
estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 20% likelihood of occurring by KSU.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 million acre (ma) downward
adjustment in 2016 U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report. A) KSU
“Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested,
164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.902 bb production, 15.745 bb total supplies, 13.762 bb total use, 1.983 bb ending
stocks, 14.41% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17; B) KSU “Lower Acres –
Moderate Drought” Scenario (25% prob.) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac
yield, 13.352 bb production, 15.200 bb total supplies, 13.622 bb total use, 1.578 bb ending stocks, 11.58% S/U,
& $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price; and C) KSU “Lower Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario (20% prob.) assumes:
92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.676 bb production, 14.529 bb total supplies,
13.257 bb total use, 1.270 bb ending stocks, 9.58% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. corn price “new crop” MY 2016/17.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,011.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 966.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down marginally from 1,013.5 mmt
in MY 2014/15. World corn total supplies of 1,218.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from
1,174.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,189.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. World corn exports of
133.1 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 120.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but
down from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 205.1 mmt (20.25% S/U) in “new
crop” MY 2016/17 are down from 206.45 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from the record
high of 208.4 mmt (21.25% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
…
December 2, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
p production, could
each still impact corn market price direction and volatility in the later part of “new crop” 2015/16 marketing
year. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs and improved profitability for U.S. and
Foreign livestock feeding and bioenergy users, leading to increased feedgrain usage. Over time these factors
are likely to cause a change in the prevailing “large crop – low price” market scenario in U.S. and World coarse
grain markets that currently exists.
USDA U.S. Corn Market Forecast: In the 11/10/2015 WASDE report, the USDA raised its forecast of 2015 U.S.
corn production and ending stocks estimates – leading to a moderate decrease in projected U.S. corn prices for
“new crop” MY 2015/16. Projected 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.654 billion bushels (bb) is up 99 million
bushels (mb) from October, but still down from the record high 14.216 bb in 2014. Total supplies of 15.415 bb
in MY 2015/16 are also up 99 mb from October, but down from the record of 15.479 bb in “old crop” MY
2014/15. Forecast MY 2015/16 total corn usage of 13.655 bb (down 100 mb) includes ethanol use of 5.175 bb
(up 34 mb vs year ago), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.380 bb (up 21 mb vs year ago), exports of 1.800 bb (down 50
mb from Oct. and down 64 mb vs year ago) and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb (up 25 mb from Oct., but
down 15 mb vs year ago). Ending stocks are forecast at 1.760 bb (12.89% S/U) in MY 2015/16 – up 199 mb
from last month, and up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in MY 2014/15. “New crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. average cash
prices are forecast $0.15 lower from a month ago in the range of $3.35‐$3.95 /bu. ($3.65 midpoint) versus
$3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and the record high $6.89 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Market Forecasts: Projected supply‐demand and price scenarios by KSU for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “USDA S/D Estimates” Scenario (80% prob.): All supply‐demand assumptions equal
to the USDA’s, but with $3.75 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Smaller Crop” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S.
corn yield of 167.0 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.470 bb, total supplies of 15.232 bb, total use of
13.655 bb, ending stocks of 1.577 bb, 11.6% S/U, & $4.00 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices; and c) “2015 Economic
Problems” Scenario (10% prob.): U.S. corn production and supplies equal to the USDA estimates, but lower
total use of 13.460 bb, ending stocks of 1.955 bb, 14.5% S/U, & $3.25 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,183.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.3 mmt in
MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 211.9 mmt (21.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up
from 208.2 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.9 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Downward adjustments by the USDA in the November WASDE report in Chinese corn feeding for the last three
marketing years had a marked impact on World corn supply‐demand balances relative to a month earlier.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. November USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On November 10th in its Crop Production report the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
made its’ fourth monthly projection of 2015 U.S. corn production since their August report. Objective “in
field” U.S. corn yield measurements in top U.S. corn producing states were conducted by USDA NASS
representatives between October 24 and November 5, 2015 to gather information on expected U.S. corn
yields as of November 1, 2015. During the same time period approximately 9,200 farm operator surveys were
conducted by the USDA primarily by phone. Forecast accuracy (root mean square error) of this November 1,
2015 projection is 1.1 percent, indicating that there is a 67% probability of the final 2015 estimate being within
plus or minus 1.1% of the USDA’s November 1st projection of 13.654 billion bushels, i.e., in the range of 13.503
to 13.804 billion bushels.
On the same day the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
The CME MARCH 2016 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract – representing “new crop”
2016 corn market price prospects. Local basis adjustments are now being made off MARCH corn futures for
spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. The “new
crop” MARCH 2016 corn futures market contract initially responded in a “negative” manner to the
information in the November 10th USDA reports, and in the days afterward has trended sideways‐to‐marginally
higher. The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day.
On the day of the report – Tuesday, November 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2016
corn futures prices opened at $3.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.65 ‐ $3.76 ½ during the session,
before settling at $3.82 ¾ – down $0.08 ½ for the day (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2016 Corn has traded
from a low of $3.64 ¼ on November 16th to a high of $3.75 ½ on December 1st before closing at $3.73 ¾ on the
same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2016 corn contract represents price prospects during September‐November, 2016 –
including the anticipated bulk of the key U.S. corn harvest period of October through early November, 2016.
DECEMBER 2016 is the futures contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for most of the “harvest
2016” corn and grain sorghum forward contract price bids or hedges. The DECEMBER 2016 corn futures
market contract also initially responded “negatively” to the information in the November 10th USDA reports,
and since has trended sideways‐to‐lower.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2016 corn futures prices opened at $3.95 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $3.87 ‐ $3.95 ¾ during the session, before settling at $3.90 ½ – down $0.04 ½ per bushel
Page | 3
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2016 Corn has traded from lows of $3.87 ¼ on November 13th
and 18th to a high of $3.97 ¼ on December 1st before closing at $3.95 ¾ on that same day.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
May 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – Focus on “New Crop” 2015/16 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
In the March 31, 2015 USDA Prospective Plantings report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn total
planted acreage would be 89.199 million acres (ma), down 2.398 ma (‐1.5%) from 90.597 ma in 2014, down
6.166 ma (‐6.5%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.092 ma (‐8.3%) from 97.291 ma in 2012, and down from
91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).
Given the USDA’s implicit assumption of an average harvested‐to‐planted acreage of 91.6%, 2015 U.S. corn
harvested acreage would be approximately 81.715 ma, down 1.421 ma (‐1.7%) from 83.136 ma in 2014, down
5.736 ma (‐6.6%) from 87.451 ma in 2013, down 5.650 ma (‐6.5%) from 87.365 ma in 2012, and down from
83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from
the January‐May USDA reports, and is higher than the 166.8 bu/ac estimate for 2015 in the May WASDE report
(Table 1 and Figure 4). Although this early 2015 USDA projection of 166.8 bu/ac is down from 171.0 bu/ac in
2014, it would be the second highest U.S. corn yield on record, being up from 158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought
affected 2012 low yield of 123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010, and up from the previous
historic record high of 164.7 bu/ac in 2009.
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (89.199 ma – from the USDA),
harvested acreage (81.715 ma – a KSU assumption calculated by dividing the USDA’s 2015 production forecast
by the 2015 yield projection), and yield (166.8 ma – USDA), 2015 U.S. corn production would be 13.630 billion
bushels (bb) – down from the record high of 14.216 bb 2014, and the previous record high of 13.829 bb in
2013 – but up from 10.755 bb in 2012, 12.314 bb in 2011, 12.425 bb in 2010, and 13.067 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are a record high 15.506 bb
– resulting from beginning stocks of 1.851 bb, projected 2015 production of 13.630 bb, and projected imports
of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 5). Total supplies of near 15.506 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16
would be a record high, being comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.749 bb in
MY 2009/10, 14.161 bb in MY 2010/11, 13.471 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in “short crop” MY 2012/13,
14.686 bb in MY 2013/14, and the previous record high of 15.472 bb in “current” MY 2014/15.
The USDA forecast of beginning stocks of 1.851 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is up substantially from
1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current crop” MY 2014/15, 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13,
and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, and at least moderately larger than 1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY
2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This amount of beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 1.851 bb
is up considerably from the low of 426 mb that occurred in MY 1996/97, and is the highest since 1.967 bb in
MY 2006/07 and 2.114 bb in MY 2005/07 (Table 1 and Figure 5).
Page | 5
Projected imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 are equal to “current” MY 2014/15, but down
from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the 2nd highest on record), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160
mb in the drought‐stressed 2012/13 marketing year. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to
29 mb in MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.200 bb in
“new crop” MY 2015/16 is unchanged from 5.200 bb in “current” MY 2014/15, but up from 5.134 bb in MY
2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figures 6‐7).
Figure 7 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion
of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate
of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.830‐5.438 bb on a
weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over
the period of September 1, 2014 through May 8, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on pace to
reach 5.170 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This estimate of 5.170 bb is only 30 mb less than the USDA’s
May 12, 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.200 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current
crop” MY 2014/15, with 36 of 52 weeks (69.2%) of the marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
April 8, 2014
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