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March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
e following. First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017. Second, anticipation of
continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding
through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly
by the availability of exportable corn supplies from South America through spring 2017. And fourth, the
always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017. World geo‐political events could provide an
unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S.
and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18. With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn
plantings of 90.000 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.004 ma), harvested acres of 82.400 ma (down 4.348 ma),
projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to
be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s record
high). Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu
from a year ago – but within the range of $3.20‐$3.60 /bu for “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a
55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
Page | 2
of alternative, lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23‐24, 2017
Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.786 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.786 bb production, 16.156 bb total
supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.971 bb ending stocks, 13.89% S/U, & $3.65 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.596 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.596 bb production, 15.966 bb total supplies,
14.080 bb total use, 1.886 bb ending stocks, 13.39% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.360 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.3605 bb production, 14.680 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.220 bb ending stocks, 8.92% S/U, & $4.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,040.2 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 8.3% from 960.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 2.4% from 1,015.6 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,250.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17,
up from 1,170.5 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.3 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 149.0 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 23.0% from 121.1 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 4.8% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
217.6 mmt (21.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 210.4 mmt (21.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 217.6 mmt,
World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.1%. Strong World
demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine). Ongoing, strong
demand could cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any threats to the 2017
U.S. crop emerge.
…
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risks that occurred. The
corn market has been less responsive to any 2017 U.S. corn production threats since beginning stocks for “new
crop” MY 2017/18 have been projected to be near 2.295 bb rather than down to 1.250‐1.500 bb. If this “large
stocks situation” persists into summer 2018, this mitigating and limiting affect will likely hamper future 2018
corn crop forward pricing prospects as well.
Second, the grain market continues to anticipate that low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong
usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring
2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, at least “moderate” continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to low U.S. corn prices
and also to a moderately weaker U.S. dollar against other World currencies compared to a year ago. Exports of
U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace of 1.925 bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 even though
South American corn production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the
end of 2017. Also, preliminary forecasts for 2018 are that Brazilian corn acreage and production will be lower
due to low prices and poor profitability in 2017, as well as a delayed 2nd crop of corn in parts of the country.
Combined with the potential for crop‐weather concerns in Brazil in coming months – these factors “could”
have a positive impact on U.S. corn exports and price prospects in spring‐summer 2018.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In the November 12th Crop Production report, the USDA raised its projections of a) projected yields up to a
record high of 175.4 bu/ac (vs the previous record of 174.6 in 2016), and b) 2017 U.S. corn production up to
14.578 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA raised its forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 16.922 bb – down marginally (20
mb) from last year’s record high. Total use is forecast at 14.435 bb – down 212 mb from last year’s record
high. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.487 bb (17.2% S/U) – up from 2.295 bb (15.7% S/U) in “old crop”
MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is
down $0.16 /bu from $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given an 80% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
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5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. These forecast scenarios vary from the USDA’s projection in the November 9, 2017 WASDE report
for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “Higher Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario) “2.250 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.548 bb production, 16.893 bb total
supplies, 2.250 bb exports, 14.735 bb total use, 2.158 bb ending stocks, 14.65% S/U, & $3.50 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario) “1.800 bb Exports” Scenario (5% probability) assumes: 90.404
ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.548 bb production, 16.893 bb total supplies,
1.800 bb exports, 14.310 bb total use, 2.583 bb ending stocks, 18.05% S/U, & $3.15 /bu U.S. corn average
price;
C ‐ KSU “Lower Yield” MY 2017/18 Scenario) “172.5 bu/ac – 14.307 bb crop” Scenario (5% probability)
assumes: 90.404 ma planted, 82.941 ma harvested, 172.5 bu/ac trend yield, 14.307 bb production, 16.652
bb total supplies, 14.435 bb total use, 2.217 bb ending stocks, 15.36% S/U, & $3.40 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: The presence of large beginning stocks of 2.295 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
corn supply‐demand balances in scenarios “A” and “C”, and hinder potential upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,043.9 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.9% from the record of 1,074.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.3% from 972.9 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,270.5 mmt are down 1.45% from the record high 1,289.2 mmt in “old
crop” MY 2016/17, and still up 7.4% from 1,182.4 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 151.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 7.3% from the record
high of 163.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 26.7% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 203.9 mmt (19.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 226.6
mmt (21.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.4 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 125.2 mmt
(15.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.9 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.7 mmt (13.8% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s
direct influence are projected to be approximately 21% lower (i.e., 15.1% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China”
versus 19.1% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.7% in MY 2015/16, to 44.5% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 38.6%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These
actions may also eventually increase Chinese import demand for both U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
July 1, 2019
KFMA Newsletters
decreased in the spring of 2019. Livestock income was down due to a … http://agtodayksu.libsyn.com/livestock-market-update-the-age-demographics-of-kansas-farms …
September 1, 2011
Beef Cattle
inventories (1,000 head).
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
Table … production (1,000 lbs).
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
Table … slaughter weights.
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center
Table …
August 1, 2011
Mandatory Price Reporting
April 2001, fol-
lowing the Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting … available at: www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/
PorkPrice/default.asp
2 … Agricultural Economist
Livestock Marketing
Kansas State University
Jason …
July 17, 2013
engages
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http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/Beef%20Demand/default.asp
If … 18
19
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/Beef%20Demand/default.asp
Yr-over-Yr … Per Pound
C-P-65A
02/08/13Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data …
January 19, 2013
2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
09/20/12Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data … 2012
(1000 Head), US Total 29,883
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data … JANUARY 2012
(1000 Head)
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data …
January 14, 2008
334.1 315.6 342.3
Corn Use
Livestock Feed 78.0 78.0 73.0 71.0 … 334.1 315.6 342.3
Corn Use
Livestock Feed 78.0 78.0 73.0 71.0 … 334.1 315.6 342.3
Corn Use
Livestock Feed 78.0 78.0 73.0 71.0 …
January 9, 2017
Summary
4
5
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/cattle-finishing-historical-and-projected-returns
“Interesting … Food Values Applied to Livestock
Products (Lister et al … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/WorkingPapers/WP1_FoodValues-LivestockProducts.pdf
Lister …
January 13, 2017
amp; LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data … amp; LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
12/29/16
7
http://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/DifferencesBetweenHighMediu
mLowProfitCow-CalfProducers_2011-2015.pdf
8
9
Variability …