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October 6, 2017
2017 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Crop
• Large Supplies & Stocks are limiting Feedgrain Price$’s
• … ‘15/16)
U.S. Corn & Grain Sorghum Stocks…..
• Corn: “Large”Stocks & % S/U
o EndStocks 2017/18 2.335 bln bu …
February 12, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
changes in ethanol and export usage in the U.S. corn supply-
demand … estimated U.S. feedgrain usage for ethanol.
The USDA … upcoming March 31st Grain Stocks report – as the corn market …
February 20, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
bushels (bb). Projected ending stocks were lowered by 50 mb to … reduction in percent (%) ending stocks-to-use down to 10.47% (from … production & MY 2019/20 ending stocks: If 55 mb in 2019
U.S …
April 3, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
… production has
been reduced. At the same time, higher than expected U.S. March 1st corn stocks in the Grain Stocks report
have signaled low … e signaled lower than expected usage of corn for livestock fe …
December 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ces to rise to $4.50‐$5.00+ by spring 2016 unless crop
production problems occur South America or larger than expected U.S. corn usage occurs in response to lo … … ts of 1.750 bb (down 25 mb from November and 75 mb from October projections)
and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.785 bb …
June 25, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
th of these contracts had traded approximately $0.50 /bu
higher than their lows on January 12th of $3.62 /bu for JULY 2018 and $3.79 ¾ for DEC 2018 corn futures
following the January 2018 USDA Annual Crop Production Summary, WASDE, and Grain Stocks reports. But
since the … … cord (Table 1, Figure 6).
Third, recent historic strength in U.S. total corn usage is expected to continue …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
this occurs, then 2017 U.S. corn production estimates could be in the range of 13.6 to 13.8 billion
bushels (bb) in the August 10th USDA reports instead of the USDA projection of 14.255 bb in the July WASDE.
So far, any significant corn futures or cash market price rallies in Spring 2017 have been limited by
expectations that ending stocks of U.S. corn will stay …
September 21, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
“moderated” by ending
stocks being “tighter”, but … projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 460
million bushels … projected percent (%) ending stocks-to-use of 10.36% in
“new …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Positive Corn Market Factors
However, a number of factors are providing positive support for U.S. corn supply‐demand and price
prospects – including strong exports, developing harvest delays from wet fall weather, ongoing strong ethanol
usage, and uncertain South Amer … d 1.032 million
barrels per day (range of 1.02 to 1.051 mb/d). Assuming 42 gallons of ethanol per barrel, and 2.8 gallons
of ethanol per bushel of either corn or grain sorghum used in the production process, this rate of U.S.
ethanol production would result in 5.592 bb of U.S. feedgrain use for ethanol. Assuming approximately
75‐100 mb of U.S. grain sorghum to be used for ethanol production in “new crop” MY 2018/19, at the
current pace of usage there would be 5.000‐5.250 bb of U.S. corn used for ethanol production over the
same period. This amount of ethanol use would be down 450‐650 mb from the USDA’s projection of
record high 5.650 bb use for ethanol (Table 1, Figures 9abc‐10).
However, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) recent action to approve the use of E15 on a season‐
round basis in U.S. motor fuels may lead to increased feedgrain use for ethanol during the remainder of
“new crop” MY 2018/19 through August 31, 2019.
Taken together, these results indicated continued strong use of U.S. feedgrains in general and U.S. corn
in particular in domestic ethanol production.
Uncertain Prospects for South American Corn Production in 2019: As a result of what can be formally termed
to be a “trade war” between China and the United States, China’s soybean export purchases have shifted
completely away from the U.S. to Argentina, Brazil and other non‐U.S. World soybean producing countries.
The export price difference between locations in Brazil and the U.S. are estimated to be more than $2.00
per bushel when converted to U.S. dollars. Given this price differential favoring South American soybeans,
it makes sense that South American farmers will have an incentive to increase their soybean acreage and
production in 2019 (Figures 14 & 15abc).
Early planting progress for soybeans in Brazil is ahead of historical pace, with indications that soybean acreage
will be increased – likely drawing acres away from first crop Brazilian corn (which typically accounts for 1/3
of the Brazil corn crop). The second Brazilian corn crop – much of which typically enters World export
markets – will be planted on harvested soybean acres in early 2019.
Consequently, IF there is a sizable acreage shift toward soybean acres in South America in 2019, and if
those acres come from corn, THEN lower World corn production will help support prices in late Winter –
Spring 2019.
…
January 9, 2019
Grain Marketing Presentations
may change that
4) U.S. Usage in “Current” MY 2018/19
• … high)
5) “Tighter” U.S. Corn Stocks & % EndingStocks-to-Use
• 1.781 bb @ 11.85Stocks/Use in “Current” MY 2018/19
• …