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September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
as ethanol plants on September 1st ranged from $3.22 ¾ ($0.35 under
Page | 2
DEC) to $3.72 ¾ ($0.15 over DEC) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for corn in Kansas and
nationwide. While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still predominates in local Kansas
grain markets, it is a positive that Kansas cash corn prices have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer production risk. The corn market has b …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… 250 bb??) in “next crop”
MY 2018/19. And that risk again is likely to provi … midst of the 2017 Kansas corn harvest.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risks that occurred. The
cor …
March 26, 2013
Sep
Percent
Avg.
2006-
10
2011
2012
G-NP-30
10/31/12
Livestock … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2006-
10
2011
2012
G-NP-34
10/31/12
Livestock … Sep
Percent
Avg.
2006-
10
2011
2012
G-NP-32
10/31/12
Livestock …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ough winter 2017‐
2018 on into early Spring 2018 are likely to be limited by ending stocks of U.S. corn in the 2.250‐2.500 bb
range, coupled with ending stocks‐to‐use of 16.0%‐17.5% for the 2017/18 marketing year. However, in
Spring‐early Summer 2018 the U.S. corn market is likely again to have to weigh the annual risk of weather‐
limiting 201 …
May 29, 2024
Recent Videos
Price Targets, (the price/profit you’ll sell at);c) Date … A) $8.46 $7.92 Expected Profit $0.07
DO NOT consider this … gain.• Once implemented, a profit goal ($0.20) and date to …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas
Wheat futures contracts on Wednesday, December 28th was $0.22 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.32 for JULY 2017 less
$4.09 ½ for MARCH 2017 Wheat), or $0.05625 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or
additional handling costs or other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from MARCH 2017 to JULY 2017 would
at least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.05625 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo
storage cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the
March‐July 2017 period. Along these same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
August 12, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
with their marketing
and risk management decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … 6.87, 2012/13 was
$7.77, 2011/12 was $7.24, and 2010/11 … setting 2014
Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) on wheat …
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
State University that these USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 have a 55% probability of
occurring.
Four Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s August 10th projection, four potential KSU‐
Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower U.S. Production” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2017/18
that the following occurs. This scenario assumes that there will be 46.657 ma planted, 83.72% harvested‐to‐
planted, 37.500 ma harvested, 44.0 bu/ac yield, 1.650 bb production, 2.984 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports,
150 mb feed & residual use, 2.141 bb total use, 843 mb ending stocks, 39.37% stocks/use, & $5.20 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 800 mb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 1.966 bb total use, 1.108 bb ending stocks, 56.36% stocks/use, & $3.75 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 1.200 bb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 2.366 bb total use, 708 mb ending stocks, 29.92% stocks/use, & $6.00 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 4) “Wildcard Foreign Events” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, less than 700 mb
exports, 150 mb feed & residual use, less than 1.800 bb total use, more than 1.300 bb ending stocks, greater
than 65% stocks/use, & less than $3.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
…
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
DISCOVERY, DIVERGENT INCENTIVES, RISK MANAGEMENT,
AND FUTURE … well-informed trade; better manage
risk; and inform policy and regulatory … Marketing Cost, Flexibility, & Risk Management; 3)
Market Information …
January 11, 2021
Feeder Cattle Pricing
managing feeder cattle price risk is to hedge the transaction … vice versa, subject to basis risk. This practice reduces uncertainty … it can lead to lower net profits at times relative to
an …