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November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
finance (Baker and Richards 2002), leadership (Shaked and … term create negative sales risk, which Srinivasan and Mason … the reformulation.
The risk of density function misspecification …
March 26, 2013
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 … and $697/cow
Cow-calf profitability drivers…
• Analysis … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
January 13’: -$138.44/steer …
September 30, 2016
Wind Energy Leases
by a grant from the USDA Risk Management Agency through … Agency through the
Southern Risk Management Education Center … Councils. These are
non-profit organizations that operate …
July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
The elevated value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid‐2014 has been a significant negative
factor in export markets for U.S. wheat in particular as well as other U.S. grains. A higher U.S. dollar exchange
rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. grains to
exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. grain
exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars in U.S. grain markets).
U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the June 30, 2017 Acreage report, the USDA projected that 2017 U.S. total wheat planted acres would
46.567 million acres (ma). This amount of U.S. wheat planted acres would be down 4.497 ma (‐9.0%) from
50.154 million acres (ma) in 2016, down 9.342 ma (‐17.0%) from 54.999 ma in 2015, down 19.7% from 56.841
ma in 2014, and down 18.8% from 56.236 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 5). Kansas State University
projections for All U.S. Wheat Planted Acres in 2017 equal those of the USDA.
U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Acres in 2017: In its June 30, 2017 Acreage report the USDA NASS
estimated U.S. winter wheat planted acres for harvest in 2017 to be 32.839 ma (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 5).
Winter wheat seedings of 32.839 ma in 2017 (seeded in fall 2016 for harvest in 2017) were down 3.390 ma (‐
9.4%) to 36.137 ma in 2016, down 6.934 ma (‐17.5%) from 39.681 ma in 2015, down 9.662 ma (‐22.8%) from
42.409 ma in 2014, and down 10.483 ma (‐24.25%) from 43.230 ma in 2013.
With low winter wheat prices (i.e., below USDA marketing loan rates throughout the state of Kansas during
the fall seeding period in September‐October 2016), associated low profitability prospects, and intensive
localized infestations of debilitating diseases such as wheat streak mosaic, it was thought that the proportion
of harvested‐to‐planted acres for winter wheat in 2017 would be lower than normal historically. In particular,
it seemed likely that in the U.S. central and southern Great Plains regions a larger than normal proportion of
hard red winter wheat acres would be “grazed out” by cattle or planted to other crops in spring 2017.
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October 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2016 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Wednesday, October 19th was $0.39 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.64 ¾ for JULY 2017 less $4.25 ¼
for DEC 2016 Corn), or $0.06643 per bushel per month. This compares to storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, for storage of wheat from December 2016 to July 2017 to at least
break even, local wheat basis levels would need to at least stay level or unchanged from current levels to fully
cover commercial storage charges over the same period. Also, it would be prudent to actually place a storage
hedge on the CME Kansas July 2017 futures contract if a person were actually holding wheat for sale that long.
Otherwise the possibility of seasonal harvest price weakness in June of 2017 could put these projected storage
profits at risk.
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trend in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, then trended sideways from November through January, with moderate
seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibits a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
steadily from October through January 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during February, followed by
a trend higher in April‐May (Figure 2). “Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and
will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this projected price pattern were to become reality, it would signal the
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
August 20, 2015 – October 19, 2016
Close = $4.64 ¾ on 10/19/2016
DEC 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
August 20, 2015 – October 19, 2016
Close = $4.25 ¼ on 10/19/2016
Page | 5
likelihood of returns to storage for Kansas wheat over the October 2016 harvest through January 2017 period.
These projections are taken from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast
model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “current crop” MY 2016/17 USDA projection (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA)
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index & Global Wheat Prices
Since 1973 the monthly average trade‐weighted index value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies
of U.S. trading partner countries has averaged 94.3680 with a median value of 93.1623 – indicating some
positive skewness in U.S. dollar index values (i.e., a few very high values pulling up the average) (Figure 3).
The historic low in the U.S. dollar trade weighted index since 1973 was 69.0247 – occurring in August 2011.
The historic high of 143.9059 occurred in March 1985. Over the January 1973 through September 2016 period
the U.S. dollar index has declined at a rate of ‐0.0609 per month …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… … ergy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Page | 3
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
October 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
1)
where S is the nominal exchange rate, P is the U.S. price level and P* is the price level in the country of
interest, say Ghana. When the real exchange rate is appreciating, it means the U.S. price of the bundle
3
of goods in the basket is increasing relative to the Ghanaian price. Now, when the real exchange rates
appreciates, then the real value of the dollar has depreciated, suggesting a decline in its purchasing
power, relatively speaking.
To get to know how Q affects the poverty level, it is necessary to try to understand the factors that
influence changes in Q. The real exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries may
change when there is a change in the relative demand for U.S. goods as a result of preference shift,
leading to total expenditure on U.S. goods increasing. The shift may arise from two principal sources.
An increase in global private and public demand for U.S. goods is one source of such shifts. This shift is
exacerbated when the relative increase in demand for U.S. goods is much higher than the increase in
demand for Ghana goods. In an increasingly interconnected world, imports tend to account increasing
share of development countries’ consumption. Another source of the shift is an increase in U.S.
Government expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during rec …
that is contingent on future events• A formal claim follows … corporation?
Material participation?
At-risk limitations?
AMT adjustments?
Shareholder … Limitations
Stock and debt basis
At risk
Passive activity loss
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August 28, 2025
Mandatory Price Reporting
also directs the K-
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solutions … innovative, resilient
and profitable. He is a
dedicated leader …
September 1, 2011
Animal ID & Traceability
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United States risks becoming less competitive … becoming less competitive and risks losing market access. This … becoming less competitive and risks losing market access. The …