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July 25, 1997
Hedging & Options
the optimal
alternative. Other pricing methods such as cash … quanti-
ties are being traded to meet cross hedged futures
contract … soybeans, wheat, or some other
futures contract be used …
October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
In Ourselves, and Helping Others
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MICHIGAN … effective communication with others.• Organize and promote … you going?• Who are you meeting?• What might you encounter?• …
October 1, 2025
2025 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
In Ourselves, and Helping Others
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MICHIGAN … effective communication with others.• Organize and promote … you going?• Who are you meeting?• What might you encounter?• …
General Sessions
markets is widely-cited by other academic researchers and … allow obligated parties to meet their individual
mandates … diesel, biogas, etc.), to meet the volumes
of total renewable …
Summary Book - All Counties
2,183 FARM UNITS plus 581 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,764 … 33-49
Can My Farm Meet the Test … 1,118
Poultry and Eggs5 0
Other Livestock/Hedging6 2,625
Custom …
Summary Book - All Counties
ECONOMISTS
1,815 FARM UNITS plus 463 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2 … makes it difficult to cover other expense
obligations. The … 19
Swine4
Poultry and Eggs5
Other Livestock/Hedging6 -102
Lvstk …
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
December 8, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
015/16 U.S. average cash prices are forecast in the range of $3.30‐
$3.90 /bu ($3.60 /bu midpoint) – down from the October WASDE forecast of $3.65‐$4.35 /bu ($4.00 midpoint),
versus $4.03 /bu in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and the record high $6.33 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Sorghum Market Forecasts: KSU forecasts of supply‐demand and price scenarios for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “Higher Exports” Scenario (60% prob.): All crop assumptions equal to the USDA’s,
but with higher sorghum exports of 375 mb and other adjustments, 6.64% stock/u …
June 7, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 10th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On May 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “current” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.
“Current” MY 2015/16 for U.S. soybeans began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016, with “new crop”
MY 2016/17 beginning 9/1/2016 and lasting through 8/31/2017.
Prior to the April 12th and May 10th USDA WASDE reports, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used by the USDA as the base estimate for
the USDA’s 2016 U.S. soybean planted acreage forecast in the May 10th WASDE – with the USDA projection of
2016 U.S. soybean harvested acres estimated from the most recent 5‐year average U.S. soybean harvested‐to‐
planted acreage ratio. The USDA’s forecast of 2016 U.S. soybean yield is based on “a weather adjusted trend
yield model and assumes normal summer weather” (quoting USDA).
I‐B. Comments on Major World Soybean Market Trends
Soybean Market Trend Outlook for 2016‐2017
The current market consensus represented in USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 are that a)
Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, b) the 2016 South American soybean production
harvested in early‐mid 2016 is not as large as in 2015 but still the 2nd largest on record, c) U.S. soybean
production prospects in 2016 under normal crop conditions are expected to only moderately less (3.800 billion
bushels or ‘bb’) than the record U.S. crop highs in 2014 (3.927 bb) and 2015 (3.929 bb), and d) export demand
for soybeans and soybean products has remained strong – helped in part by relatively low soybean prices and
low ocean freight rates.
At this time there is no indication any change is expected in these projected trends in production, exports,
imports or ending stocks in the broader World soybean market, although some weather‐related late season
soybean production problems have occurred in South America, and production problems are possible in the
United States during summer‐fall 2016 period. Until and/or unless such potential 2016 U.S. soybean
production problems actually do occur, the World soybean market will likely assume that these dominating
“adequate supply trends” will continue into the foreseeable future – with soybean prices remaining relatively
moderate‐to‐low levels compared to market highs since MY 2007/08.
The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by
recognizing several of these “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import
trade among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade. The primary countries
involved in or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, and South
American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others) and the United States in regards to supply‐
oriented factors.
Page | 4
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Imports
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. The USDA
has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “current” MY 2015/16
and in “new crop” MY 2016/17. If recent strength in Chinese soybean import demand were to falter or
“moderate”, it would have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
China Soybean Supply‐Demand
Growing Chinese domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver” in
World soybean markets in recent years. Figure 1 illustrates trends since the 2006/07 marketing year in
Chinese soybean production, domestic use, imports, and ending stocks.
China Soybean Domestic Production: Chinese domestic production of soybeans was 13.05 mmt in MY
2012/13 (17.1% of total domestic use), 11.95 mmt in MY 2013/14 (14.8% domestic usage), 12.15 mmt in MY
2014/15 (13.9% domestic use), an estimate of 11.8 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16 (12.4% domestic use), and a
projection of 12.2 mmt (12.1% domestic use) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (Figure 1). Chinese soybean domestic
production is forecast to be down an average of 0.213 mmt annually or minus 1.6% per year since MY
2012/13. With China’s domestic soybean production declining marginally as a proportion of total domestic use
since MY 2008/09, China has been forced over this time period to rely even more heavily on sizable amounts
of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.
Figure …