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July 7, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
USDA June 30th Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Implications
Daniel M. O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist – Kansas State University
July 4, 2014
Summary
On June 30th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Acreage and Grain Stocks
reports. The 2014 Acreage report provided the second actual survey‐based information by the USDA on U.S.
farmer’s cropping intentions for 2014, following the March 31st Prospective Plantings report. The Quarterly
June 1st 2014 Grain Stocks report provided grain markets with improved information on the pace of usage of
U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans, and other major crops in their respective 2013/14 marketing years.
As a result of these June 30th USDA reports, adjustments are likely occur to in the upcoming July 11th USDA
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – particularly for “new crop” 2014/15
marketing year U.S. soybean and grain sorghum supply‐demand balances and prices.
The Acreage report projected 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage to be 91.641 million acres (ma), down marginally
from pre‐report trade expectations, and down from 95.365 ma in 2013, and the record high of 97.155 ma in
2012. Forecast harvested acres of corn in 2014 of 83.839 ma were down from 87.375 – 87.668 ma the
previous two years. Planted acres of soybeans in 2014 were forecast to be a record high 84.839 ma, above the
top end of the pre‐report average trade estimates, and up from 76.533 ma in 2013 and 77.198 ma in 2012.
Expected 2014 plantings of other spring wheat of 12.709 ma were also above the top end of the pre‐report
trade estimates, and up from 11.596 ma in 2013, and 12.289 ma in 2012. Projected planted acres of grain
sorghum in 2014 are 7.471 ma, up 790,000 acres from the 3/31 Prospective Plantings estimate, but down
from 8.061 ma in 2013, while up from 6.244 ma in 2012. Harvested acres of grain sorghum in 2014 of 6.399
ma are projected to be down from 6.530 ma in 2013, but up from 6.244 ma in 2012.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report estimated that U.S. corn stocks on June 1st were 3.854 billion bushels (bb),
up from 2.766 bb a year ago. Corn use during March‐May 2014 was 3.154 bb, up from 2.634 bb in Mar‐May
2013 and 2.886 bb in Mar‐May 2012. Projected U.S. soybean stocks on June 1st were 405 mb, down from 435
mb a year ago. Soybean use during March‐May 2014 was 589 mb, up from 563 mb in Mar‐May 2013, but
down from 712 mb in Mar‐May 2012. Projected U.S. wheat stocks on June 1st were 590 mb, down from 718
mb a year ago. Wheat use during March‐May 2014 was 467 mb, down from 517 mb in Mar‐May 2013, and
down from 486 mb in Mar‐May 2012. Projected U.S. grain sorghum stocks on June 1st were 92 mb, up from 42
mb a year ago. Grain sorghum use during March‐May 2014 was 83 mb, up from 50 mb in Mar‐May 2013, and
from 50 mb in Mar‐May 2012.
As a result of these reports, KSU supply‐demand balance and price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 were
adjusted from early June projections. The U.S. 2014 corn production forecast was lowered slig …
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