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April 9, 2018
Grain Marketing Presentations
June-July)?
Spring-Summer Price occurred 28/28 Years … 100%)
o Which direction did prices move by Fall (Nov-Dec)??
Price moving sideways / higher … higher = 9/28 Years (32%)
Price moving lower = 19/28 Years …
March 1, 2024
Crop Insurance Papers
Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) were … protection against a decline in
prices. While most analyses compare … revenue = Olympic average MYA price x Olympic average county …
April 3, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
… ” MY 2017/18 than has been anticipated.
Following these USDA’s March 29th reports, “old crop” MAY 2018 CME corn futures prices have traded
sharply hig … …
December 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
record high of 736.03 mmt. But large carryover stocks from “old crop” MY 2017/18
have upheld total World supplies and supply‐demand balances. Due to both stronger U.S. currency values and
adequate World wheat non‐exporter supplies, rises in U.S. wheat prices have been limited (Figures 4 & 13).
B. World Wheat Supply‐Demand – “Near‐Record World Supplies & Ending Stocks”
The USDA projects that the recent “large supply – large use” situation that has persisted for the World
wheat market since the last “supply‐demand” period in MY 2012/13 will continue (Figure 13). Viewed in
aggregate these World supply and use numbers do NOT bring light to periodic shortages of high protein wheat
that are problematic in World markets. Declining stocks of food quality wheat in major wheat exporting
countries in the last 1‐2 years may also be somewhat hidden. For example, there are regular, annual concerns
from the Black Sea Region about the amount of food versus feed quality wheat available for export on World
markets this year. They also do not account for the sizable wheat stocks held by China that are isolated from
the World wheat market and which tend to distort the supply‐demand picture presented by aggregate World
market measures (Figures 15a‐b).
World wheat production in “current” MY 2018/19 is projected to be 733.41 million metric tons (mmt)
which would be the fourth highest amount on record. This amount would be down 3.9% from the record high
763.06 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down 3.1% from 756.51 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13). Total
production of World wheat has increased annually on average from 612.23 mmt in MY 2007/08 to present
levels at a rate of +11.0 mmt (+2.1% annually). The “current” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) which began on
June 1, 2018 and will last through May 31, 2019.
World wheat total supplies in “current” MY 2018/19 are projected to be a near record 1,013.35 mmt –
down 1.05% from 1,024.10 mmt in “old crop” 2017/18, but up from 1,000.90 mmt in MY 2016/17.
World wheat exports are forecast to be 177.36 mmt in the “current” 2018/19 marketing year – down from
a 181.23 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and the record high of 183.35 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13).
World wheat exporting countries and regions are presented in order of size (i.e., largest to smallest):
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1 …
June 14, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. grain sorghum market prices have been greatly affected … USDA raised the projected price of U.S. grain sorghum in … notable
that this projected price increase occurred with no …
September 1, 2005
LRP Insurance
downward movement in cattle prices are topics of
much research … the volatility in cattle prices
it is apparent why risk … City 700 to 800 pound steer prices from 2000
to 2004. Weekly …
February 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… thereafter (i.e., Tuesday, February 18th). A longer term upward trend in CBOT
soybean futures prices since January 30th has b … …
December 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
foreign coarse grain crops in the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year, it will be difficult for corn futures prices to rise to $4.50‐$5.00 … sage occurs in response to low
U.S. and World corn prices. If low corn prices persist through spring 20 … uptions, c) U.S. farmer
resistance to selling at low winter 2016 cash corn prices, and d) “El Nino” or …
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
e risen above $4.00 in May‐June 2016 due to a) significant corn production problems in
Brazil (too dry in spots) resulting in higher domestic Brazilian prices and reduced export prospe … e in response to low U.S. and World corn prices during January‐early
Ju … in 2016 include: 1) declining U.S.
farmer resistance to selling 2015 crop corn at lower than hoped for 2016 cash corn prices to‐date as both
winter …
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… llover impacts from volatile World economic, financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over
supply” situation currently existing in World & U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong negative
influence on World wheat prices. For wheat prices are to recover significan …