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May 1, 2024
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December 8, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
015/16 U.S. average cash prices are forecast in the range of $3.30‐
$3.90 /bu ($3.60 /bu midpoint) – down from the October WASDE forecast of $3.65‐$4.35 /bu ($4.00 midpoint),
versus $4.03 /bu in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and the record high $6.33 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Sorghum Market Forecasts: KSU forecasts of supply‐demand and price scenarios for “new crop” MY
2015/16 are as follows: a) “Higher Exports” Scenario (60% prob.): All crop assumptions equal to the USDA’s,
but with higher sorghum exports of 375 mb and other adjustments, 6.64% stock/u …
June 7, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 10th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On May 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “current” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.
“Current” MY 2015/16 for U.S. soybeans began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016, with “new crop”
MY 2016/17 beginning 9/1/2016 and lasting through 8/31/2017.
Prior to the April 12th and May 10th USDA WASDE reports, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used by the USDA as the base estimate for
the USDA’s 2016 U.S. soybean planted acreage forecast in the May 10th WASDE – with the USDA projection of
2016 U.S. soybean harvested acres estimated from the most recent 5‐year average U.S. soybean harvested‐to‐
planted acreage ratio. The USDA’s forecast of 2016 U.S. soybean yield is based on “a weather adjusted trend
yield model and assumes normal summer weather” (quoting USDA).
I‐B. Comments on Major World Soybean Market Trends
Soybean Market Trend Outlook for 2016‐2017
The current market consensus represented in USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 are that a)
Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, b) the 2016 South American soybean production
harvested in early‐mid 2016 is not as large as in 2015 but still the 2nd largest on record, c) U.S. soybean
production prospects in 2016 under normal crop conditions are expected to only moderately less (3.800 billion
bushels or ‘bb’) than the record U.S. crop highs in 2014 (3.927 bb) and 2015 (3.929 bb), and d) export demand
for soybeans and soybean products has remained strong – helped in part by relatively low soybean prices and
low ocean freight rates.
At this time there is no indication any change is expected in these projected trends in production, exports,
imports or ending stocks in the broader World soybean market, although some weather‐related late season
soybean production problems have occurred in South America, and production problems are possible in the
United States during summer‐fall 2016 period. Until and/or unless such potential 2016 U.S. soybean
production problems actually do occur, the World soybean market will likely assume that these dominating
“adequate supply trends” will continue into the foreseeable future – with soybean prices remaining relatively
moderate‐to‐low levels compared to market highs since MY 2007/08.
The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by
recognizing several of these “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import
trade among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade. The primary countries
involved in or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, and South
American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others) and the United States in regards to supply‐
oriented factors.
Page | 4
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Imports
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. The USDA
has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “current” MY 2015/16
and in “new crop” MY 2016/17. If recent strength in Chinese soybean import demand were to falter or
“moderate”, it would have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
China Soybean Supply‐Demand
Growing Chinese domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver” in
World soybean markets in recent years. Figure 1 illustrates trends since the 2006/07 marketing year in
Chinese soybean production, domestic use, imports, and ending stocks.
China Soybean Domestic Production: Chinese domestic production of soybeans was 13.05 mmt in MY
2012/13 (17.1% of total domestic use), 11.95 mmt in MY 2013/14 (14.8% domestic usage), 12.15 mmt in MY
2014/15 (13.9% domestic use), an estimate of 11.8 mmt in “current” MY 2015/16 (12.4% domestic use), and a
projection of 12.2 mmt (12.1% domestic use) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 (Figure 1). Chinese soybean domestic
production is forecast to be down an average of 0.213 mmt annually or minus 1.6% per year since MY
2012/13. With China’s domestic soybean production declining marginally as a proportion of total domestic use
since MY 2008/09, China has been forced over this time period to rely even more heavily on sizable amounts
of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.
Figure …
March 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
or “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. sorghum production of
597 mb, and total supplies of 620 mb. Total use is projected to be 555 mb – including food, alcohol and
industrial use of 99 mb, seed use of 1 mb, exports of 325 mb, and feed and residual use of 130 mb. Ending
stocks are forecast at 65 mb (11.71% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – up from 18 mb (4.0% S/U) in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, and 34 mb (9.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. grain sorghum average cash prices are forecast
to be in the range of $3.15‐$3.45 /bu. ($3.30 midpoint) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 versus $4.03 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and $6.33 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: On December 14, 2015 the USDA released preliminary estimates
of its USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projections on February 25‐26, 2016. In its December 14th forecasts
the USDA forecast U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year
beginning September 1, 2016, but provided no further specifics in the February 25‐26 meeting.
The USDA projected 2016 U.S. grain sorghum plantings of 7.300 million acres (ma) – down 1.159 ma or 13.7%
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 6.300 ma would be down 1.551 ma vs 2015. With projected
yields of 65.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 410 mb – down sharply from 597 mb
in 2015, and comparable to 433 mb in 2013, and 392 mb in 2012. With forecast “next crop” MY 2016/17 total
use of 415 mb (down from 555 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16), and projected ending stocks of 60 mb
(14.46% S/U), U.S. sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.40 /bu – down $0.05 from the USDA
corn price projection of $3.45 /bu for “next crop” MY 2016/17, but up from $3.30 /bu midpoint estimate for
U.S. grain sorghum “current” MY 2015/16.
Potential KSU 2016 U.S. Sorghum and Corn “Short Crop” Scenario – 13.000 Billion Bu U.S. Corn Crop: If
moderately significant corn production problems were to occur in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in a
13.000 bb corn (157.95 bu/ac yield on 82.300 ma harvested), then all else being equal, ending stocks of U.S.
corn for “next crop” MY 2016/17 could decline to 1.172 bb (8.5% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely to increase
to $4.50‐$5.50 per bushel. Grain sorghum prices in the U.S. would likely in the $4.25 to $5.25 per bushel range
for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
World Coarse Grains Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,504.7 million metric tons (mmt) are projected
for “current” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,509.65 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,444.5
Page | 3
mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World coarse grain ending stocks of 243.1 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 are up marginally from 241.15 mmt (19.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 211.2 mmt
(17.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
…
March 26, 2021
Meat Demand Research Studies
markets are inelastic and others are elastic, pointing to … in opposite directions in
other cases (where demand is elastic … adjustments in prices of other proteins.
4) Diversity …
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