Search
Displaying 611 - 620 of 5631
2021 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
64,687$ Dairy‐livestock 113 … 212 Other livestock 1,427 1,820 … 5,971 Ad hoc pmt ‐ Livestock ‐ …
August 1, 2021
Breakout Sessions
64,687$ Dairy‐livestock 113 … 212 Other livestock 1,427 1,820 … 5,971 Ad hoc pmt ‐ Livestock ‐ …
January 1, 2014
Livestock 16 — Revised April 2014
Cost–Return … per unit and net returns to livestock production
are highly dependent … number of reasons including
livestock quality or genetics, weather …
January 1, 2014
�
Livestock 22 — Revised October 2008
Interest … eastern Kansas. As with other
livestock industries, the meat goat … Jones
Agricultural Economist
Livestock Production
Dale Lanham
Research …
August 1, 2024
Breakout Sessions
growing different
crops and/or livestock
Research Objective
6/
1
Objective … crop vs mix farm (crop + livestock) diversification
effect on … 3%), Northwest (6, 3%)
► Livestock only farms (1%), crop only …
May 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… down to USDA loan rate levels.
Other factors that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2017 include the following: First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early‐spring and some into summer 2017. Second,
anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock
feeding through spring‐ …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ue to spring corn planting and summer
corn production uncertainties, and strong U.S. corn use in terms of ethanol production, wet corn milling,
exports and – to a moderate degree – livestock feeding. Although the USDA forecast in the June 30th Acreage
report of 90.886 million acres (ma) of U.S. corn plantings in 2017 was above trade expectations, this projection
is still down from 94.004 ma planted in 2016. The USDA used a crop modeling approach to forecast 2017 U.S.
corn yields to be 170.7 bu/acre in the July WASDE report.
However, in the upcoming survey‐based August 10th Crop Production report, it is possible that various
production problems resulting from dry conditions in the U.S. northern plains and late plantings elsewhere in
the U.S. Corn Belt may result in U.S. corn yield projections closer to long term trend estimates of 165‐168
bu/acre. If this occurs, then 2017 U.S. corn production estimates could be in the range of 13.6 to 13.8 billion
bushels (bb) in the August 10th USDA reports instead of the USDA projection of 14.255 bb in the July WASDE.
So far, any significant corn futures or cash market price rallies in Spring 2017 have been limited by
expectations that ending stocks of U.S. corn will stay above 2.0 bb in “next crop” MY 2017/18, coupled with
ending stocks‐to‐use above 15.0%‐16.0% in both “current” MY 2016/17 and “next crop” MY 2017/18.
Drought conditions in the northern plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana as well as parts
of Nebraska and Iowa may have a negative impact on 2017 U.S. corn production. Also, corn production in
2017 may be negatively affected by carryover impacts from delayed plantings in the central Corn Belt earlier in
Spring 2017, and periods of high temperatures that may have affected corn pollination in the first half of July.
Kansas Cash Corn Prices & Basis Bids
Cash corn bids at major grain elevators ranged from $3.36 ($0.40 under SEPT futures) to $3.76 ($0.00 under or
par with futures) in Western Kansas and $3.21 ¼ ($0.55 under) to $3.41 ¼ ($0.35 under) in Central Kansas on
Friday, July 14th. This represents a marked increase since October‐December 2016 when corn price bids
statewide had fallen below $3.00 per bushel – down to $2.66‐$2.96 on December 23rd – although not as low as
marketing loan rates near $2.05 (central KS) to $2.19 (western KS) per bushel. Cash corn price bids in east
central and northeast Kansas – near river terminal locations – were near $3.44 ‐ $3.46 on July 14th, up from the
range of $3.26‐$3.28 per bushel on 12/23/2016. Cash corn bids at Kansas ethanol plants on July 17th ranged
from $3.52 ¼ ($0.24 under) to $4.18 ¼ ($0.42 over) – indicating continuing strength in ethanol demand for
corn in Kansas and nationwide. While the “large supply and tight storage availability” situation still
…
March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Corn Market Considerations for Winter‐Spring 2018
First, although the corn market is likely to be responsive to any early season 2018 U.S. corn production
threats, the anticipation of large beginning stocks of 2.000‐2.100 bb for “new crop” MY 2018/19 will likely
“mitigate” of “soften” the immediate price response of the market – more‐so than if beginning stocks were
down to 1.250‐1.500 bb. If no significant production risk emerges in summer 2018, then these large “old crop”
MY 2017/18 carryover ending stocks will limit 2018 corn crop forward pricing prospects.
Second, low prices for U.S. corn will help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling
production, as well as livestock feeding through at least spring 2018 if not into the summer months.
Third, the USDA has so far projecting at least “moderate” continued strength in U.S. corn exports of 1.900
bb for “new crop” MY 2017/18 – with this number likely increasing IF South American corn production
prospects continue to suffer. United States’ corn export shipments had been “slow” to date in the current
marketing year, but have increased markedly in recent weeks. The USDA maintains its optimism for “new
crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. corn exports because of a) low U.S. corn prices to date, b) expectations of significantly
tighter foreign stocks and percent (%) stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing
South American corn exports in spring 2018.
Current forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 94.5 million metric tons (mmt) in this
marketing year – versus 98.5 mmt last year ‐ with harvests lasting from February through May. However,
forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production to be 36.0 mmt in this marketing year – versus 41.0 mmt a
year ago ‐ with harvests lasting from March through May. The Argentina production figure is at risk to falling
further. To the degree that 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil is limited by crop weather
issues, there will likely be subsequent support U.S. corn export prospects.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecasts
In the March 8th WASDE report, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) 2017 U.S. corn production of
14.604 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016, and b) “old crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of
16.947 bb – up marginally from a year earlier. Total use is forecast at 14.820 bb – raised 225 mb from the
February WASDE on prospects for a) higher ethanol use of 5.575 bb (raised 50 mb), and b) higher exports of
2.225 bb (raised 175 mb). Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.127 bb (14.35% Stocks/Use) – down 225 mb
from February, and down from 2.293 bb (15.65% S/U) in MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected
to average $3.35 /bu (range of $3.15‐$3.55). This is down $0.01 /bu from $3.36 /bu from MY 2016/17.
At the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23, 2018, the USDA forecast that a)
2018 U.S. corn production would be 14.390 bb – based on 90.0 million acres (ma) planted, 82.7 ma harvested,
and a yield of 174.0 bu. Total use is forecast at 14.520 bb – with projections of ethanol use at 5.650 bb (a
record high), non‐ethanol food seed and industrial use at 1.495 bb (also a record high), exports of 1.900 bb
(down 325 mb from the current marketing year), and feed and residual use of 5.475 mb (down 75 mb from this
year). After a KSU‐adjustment for lower beginning stocks based on the March 8th WASDE report, ending stocks
are projected to be a 2.047 bb (14.10% Stocks/Use) – with both being down moderately from “old crop” MY
2017/18 levels. United States’ corn prices are projected to average a KSU‐adjusted $3.45 /bu (up $0.05‐$0.10
Page | 3
from this year). It is probable that the export projection for “new crop” MY 2018/19 may be raised in coming
months due to South American production problems – causing these ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use
estimates to tighten further. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension
Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2018/19. These projections are to show how varying 2018 U.S. corn production outcomes could affect U.S.
corn supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
A ‐ KSU “Higher 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 176.6 bu/ac record yield (equal to
2017 record high), 14.605 bb production, 16.782 bb total supplies, 14.600 bb total use, 2.182 bb ending
stocks, 14.95% S/U, & $3.30 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Corn Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (25% probability):
Assumptions are as follows: 90.000 ma planted, 82.700 ma harvested, 164.4 bu/ac yield (equal to 2009
yield), 13.596 bb production, 15.773 bb total supplies, 14.315 bb total use, 1.458 bb ending stocks, 10.19%
S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn average price;
6. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,041.7 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.1% from the record of 1,075.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but still up 7.0% from 973.45 mmt in MY 2015/16. World
corn total supplies of 1,273.6 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are forecast to be down moderately from the
record high 1,290.2 mmt in MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 155.9 mmt are projected for “old crop” MY 2017/18, down 2.4% from the record
high of 159.8 mmt in MY 2016/17, and up 30.2% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World corn ending
stocks of 199.2 mmt (18.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 231.9 mmt (21.9%
S/U) in MY 2016/17, and from 215.0 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn
ending stocks of 145.1 mmt (17.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are down from 173.6 mmt (21.9% S/U) in
MY 2016/17, and from 170.9 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.6 mmt
(14.35% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, down from 131.1 mmt (15.9% S/U) in MY 2016/17, but up from 104.2
mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct
influence are projected to be approximately 22% lower (i.e., 14.35% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China” versus
18.5% S/U for the “World” overall in “old crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 43.4% in MY 2016/17, and down to 39.9% in “old
crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to reduce
feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These actions
may eventual increase Chinese import demand for U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
May 1, 2014
Forecasts (4/11/14)
Sources: Livestock Slaughter - USDA/NASS; Steer … USDA/NASS; Steer Prices - USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections … Forecasts (4/11/14)
Sources: Livestock Slaughter - USDA/NASS; Steer …
April 25, 2018
Q4.2016
http://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand
How … 2018
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
BeefBasis.com … Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
LMIC …