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December 22, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015 along
with the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter Wheat S … … down to 410 mb. Percent ending stocks‐to‐use are projected t …
February 24, 2022
Grain Marketing Presentations
“Strong” U.S. Corn Usage in “Current” MY 2021/22 (thru 8/31/2022)
• … “Strong” U.S. Soybean Usage in “Current” MY 2021/22 (thru 8/31/2022)
• … “Tighter” U.S. Corn Stocks & % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use
• 1.540 bb@ 10.40% …
Gifting Purposes• Sale of Stock• Worthlessness ofStock• Limitations on Loss Pas-through• … consideration giving to buy the stock
p. A50
Gifted Shareholder … benefit of built-in loss when stock is sold
pp. A50-51
Built-in …
November 12, 2015
2015 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
“short” vs “abundant” Stocks/Use
Use = f(PricesUsage affected conversely by “high” … Market”
• Record World Supplies & Usage Forecast in 2015/16
o 3 … unlessor until World supplies & stocks decline
o U.S. & World Crop …
May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Overall World Wheat Market Situation
Prospects for continued large World wheat supplies and ending stocks, ongoing weakness in U.S … … k to the historically important “short crop / tight
stocks” situation that occurred …
August 31, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. Wheat Associates indicated that according to 428 samples analyzed through August 24, 2018, that
average protein for the 2018 U.S. hard red winter wheat (HRW) crop averaged 12.5%, with average test weight
of 60.8 lb/bu, 11.1% moisture, dockage of 0.5%. a falling number rating of 372 seconds, and 1.3% defects. This
compares to the results of 488 samples for the 2017 U.S. HRW Wheat crop, which according to U.S. Wheat
Associates test data averaged 10.6% protein, 60.8 lbs/bu test weight, 10.6% moisture, 0.6% dockage, 367
seconds for the Falling Number test, and 1.1% defects.
Consequently, lower yields occurring during the 2018 HRW harvest in Kansas and Oklahoma (i.e., 38.0
bu/ac in 2018 in Kansas vs 48.0 bu/ac a year earlier, and 25.0 bu/ac in Oklahoma in 2018 vs 34.0 bu/ac a year
ago) have been partially offset income‐wise by higher protein levels – leading to higher cash market prices.
C. World Wheat Supply‐Demand – “Large supplies but tightening stocks”
For the “new crop” …
June 24, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
USDA Forecast – 13.680 billion bu. (bb) Crop, $3.80 /bu (20% probability KSU)
On June 11th the USDA projected that U.S. corn production would be 13.680 billion bushels (bb)
in year 2019, with ending stocks of 1.675 bb, percent (%) stocks‐to‐use of 11.75%, and projected U.S.
average cash corn prices of $3.80 per bushel for the “new crop” 2019/20 marketing year beginning
September 1, 2019 (Tables 1a‐b). This USDA forecast is given a 20% probability of occurring by KSU
Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
2 …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand: The USDA projected sharply higher U.S. soybean production, higher
usage, a large increase in U.S … increase in U.S. soybean ending stocks and % ending …
December 21, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
riven by several key
factors.
No. 1 Factor – Record U.S. Soybean Supplies, Ending Stocks & % Stocks/Use
One factor that is … … of
574 mb in MY 2006/07 (Table 1, Figures 10a‐b).
Percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of U.S. soybean …
December 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
…
B. World Wheat Supply‐Demand – “Near‐Record World Supplies & Ending Stocks”
The USDA projects that … riodic shortages of high protein wheat
that are problematic in World markets. Declining stocks of food quality wheat in …