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December 1, 2016
KFMA Research
1
Likelihood of Kansas Farm Financial Persistence
Jayce Stabel (jstabel@ksu.edu), Terry Griffin (twgriffin@ksu.edu) and Greg Ibendahl (ibendahl@ksu.edu)
Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics – December 2016
Do some farms consistently (persist) outperform their peers?
Persistence: Firm or obstinate continuance in a course of action in spite of difficulty or opposition.
Executive Summary
Often times farmers and agricultural lenders alike seek the ability to identify ways to improve farm
operations’ stability and profitability. Seeking these characteris …
August 1, 2025
Breakout Sessions
ects on Caloric AvailabilityRisk and Profit Conference 2025
Jenae TilfordAugust 22, 2025
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Overview
• … Slow onset of climate impacts (rising sea levels)• Extreme weather events (hurricanes, drought, etc.)• … Import dependence doesn’t necessarily mean high risk but can be indirect risk (Bailey and Wellesley, 2017)• …
February 1, 2008
Water Policy
Net Present Value of Gross Profit … the least impact on gross profits because of the relatively … irrigation
because of the unknown risk associated with production …
General Sessions
2015 Risk andProfit Conference
General Session … includes
livestock and grain, risk management, international … of these record-high price events was short-lived --
less …
April 29, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
April 28, 2020
Recent events in the U.S. economy caused … yield (trendline yield, vs previous record of 76.6 bu/ac in
2017 … crop”
MY 2020/21.
Risk Avoiding Market Responses …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Negative U.S. Corn Market Factors
U.S. Corn Production in 2018: The most important negative market factor is the projected size of the 2018 U.S.
corn crop at 14.778 billion bushels (bb) – forecast to be the second highest on record behind 15.148 bb in
2016, but up from 14.601 bb in 2017 (Table 1 & Figures 5‐7).
Total U.S. Corn Supplies in “new crop” MY 2018/19: In addition, the USDA projects total supplies of U.S. corn
in the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) starting 9/1/2018 to be a record high 16.968 bb –
maintaining downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. Total supplies of U.S. corn in MY 2016/17 were a
previous record high of 16.942 bb, and were only marginally lower at 16.934 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18
which ended on August 31, 2018 (Table 1 & Figure 7).
…
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Y 2017/18 with
total use of 737.05 mmt (2nd highest behind 739.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17).
World wheat exports are also projected to trend marginally lower to 179.9 mmt in the “new crop” MY
2017/18 – down from a record high of 182.3 mmt last year, but up from 172.9 mmt two years ago.
World wheat ending stocks are forecast to be a record high 264.7 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18 ‐ up
from the previous record of 258.6 mmt last …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ections to 2026, in which they projected 2017 U.S.
wheat plantings of 48.500 million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in 2015. The USDA also forecast 2016
harvested acres of 41.100 ma which would be down from 43.890 ma a year ago. Trendline 2017 wheat yields
for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac, while 2017 U.S. wheat
production is forecast to be 1.936 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015. Projected “next crop” MY
2017/18 total supplies are 3.199 bb (down from 3.410 bb in “current” MY 2016/17), with total use of 2.206 bb
(down from 2.267 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks of 933 million bushels (mb)
(vs 1.143 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.0% S/U (vs 50.4% last year and 50.0% the
previous year). United States wheat average prices are projected to average $4.00 /bu – up from $3.70 in
“current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed
by Kansas State University that these USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of
occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume lower 2017 U.S. planted (47.624 ma) and harvested (38.385 ma)
wheat acres than the USDA – due to larger than normal amounts of “graze out” and “crop switching” in 2017.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield” Scenario (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18:
47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb total supplies,
960 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total use, 876 mb ending stocks, 39.98% S/U, & $4.00‐
$4.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield, +20% Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop”
MY 2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb
total supplies, 1.152 bb exports***, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.383 bb total use, 684 mb ending stocks,
24.10% S/U, & $5.25‐$5.75 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Lower Acres, Short Crop Yield” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac low yield***, 1.674 bb production, 2.937 bb
total supplies, 925 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.156 bb total use, 781 mb ending stocks, 36.22%
S/U, & $4.40‐$4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
August 1, 2023
2023 Risk and Profit Conference Recordings
Risk &Profit Manhattan, Kansas25th August … Ukrainian boarder, Significant risk of expanding conflict
Civil … India, etc…)
Geo-Political Risks
Source: Barchart - https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DXY00/interactive-chart
Current …
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
xt crop” MY 2017/18, 2017 U.S. wheat plantings are projected to be 46.059 million acres (ma) – down from
50.154 ma in 2015. Harvested acres for 2016 are forecast to be 39.050 ma – down from 43.890 ma a year ago.
Trendline 2017 wheat yields for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac,
while the adjusted 2017 U.S. wheat production forecast is 1.839 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in
2015. Projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.118 bb (down from 3.395 bb in “current” MY
2016/17), with total use of 2.191 bb (down from 2.236 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the adjusted USDA projection of “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks equals 927
million bushels (mb) (vs 1.159 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 42.3% S/U (vs 51.8% last
year and 50.0% the previous year). United States’ wheat prices are projected to average approximately $4.25
/bu – up from $3.85 in “current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY
2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY
2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Trend Yield” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. It is assumed that there will be 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend
yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 190 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total
use, 937 mb ending stocks, 42.8% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (15% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18
the following. The following is forecast for “next crop” MY 2017/18, i.e., 46.059 ma planted, 39.334 ma
harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.849 bb production, 3.128 bb total supplies, 1.150 bb exports, 190 mb feed
& residual use, 2.326 bb total use, 802 mb ending stocks, 24.10% S/U, & $4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that
the following happens. This scenario assumes 46.059 ma planted, 37.124 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac low yield,
1.485 bb production, 2.769 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 175 mb feed & residual use, 2.175 bb total use,
594 mb ending stocks, 27.31% S/U, & $5.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…