Search
Displaying 61 - 70 of 96
April 1, 2005
Industry Economics & Trade
of Feed-Ban and Specified Risk Material Policy Options .........................43
5.1 … Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Events … months of age) as specified
risk materials (SRM) not allowed …
January 14, 2016
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 … 2001
Feeder Cattle Price Risk
Considerations:
Quantitative … IF COG $80/cwt THEN Exp. Profit = +/- $19/hd
Economic …
March 4, 2025
Precision Ag and Technology Articles
solar storm, solar
particle events, agricultural technology … bushel per planted acre was at risk. Although
unprecedented during … precision agricultural era, the events of 10 May 2024 were not likely …
August 15, 2022
Ag Law Issues
Coverage (PLC) Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC), marketing … Coverage Option
(SCO). It is a risk management tool that is designed … subsidized).
ARC is a risk management tool that addresses …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
The first set of scenarios compare doing nothing (status quo) to adopting
full animal tracing for just the bovine sector. The bovine sector is the
focus here because it is it the sector among bovine, porcine, ovine, and
poultry that would incur the largest adoption cost of NAIS practices.
Under the status quo scenarios, we further explore what the impacts are
if by doing nothing we also lose export market access. We are likely to
lose export market access over time if we do not adopt NAIS practices,
even without any major market or major animal disease event, because
the international marketplace is making animal identification and tracing
systems the norm and any country that does not conform will have less
market access.
Table 2 summarizes the total loss per head to producers in the beef
sector, after all markets adjust as a result of not adopting NAIS practices
(i.e., status quo) under 0%, 10%, 25%, and 50% permanent export
market losses for beef. If we do nothing to adopt NAIS, and nothing
happens to export markets, the result is no cost, no market loss. If we do
nothing and we lose market access, which we believe is likely, the beef
industry will suffer losses. The losses would amount to $18.25 per head if
we do not adopt NAIS and we lose 25% of export market share. To put
this into perspective, this would be about like losing access to the South
Korean export market at 2003 export market shares.
Table 2. Net Annual Loss in Beef Producer Surplus from Status Quo
with Varying Export Market Losses
Export Market Loss Incurred
0% …
August 19, 2016
General Session Presentations
2016 Risk andProfit Conference
General Session … Copyright © 2016 AgResource Company. All Rights Reserved.
A Long‐Term View of Crop Prices:The Landscape Has Changed for US Crop Ag (Risk & Profit Conference. Manhattan, KS. Aug 19, 2016)
Daniel W BassePresident AgResource Company
Daniel W BassePresident AgResourceChicago, IL January 2016
Daniel BassePresident March 2016Bill Tierney, Ph.DChief Economist AgResourceChicago, IL 60606
Copyright © 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Reserved.v …
December 4, 2013
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
$ Per … Expansion Discussion
• Expected Profit
– 2014 LMIC Forecast 2X 04’ & 13’
• … 1,121; 2012 ‐ $1,317
• Profit Risk
– Context on environment of price variability…
• …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… 250 bb??) in “next crop”
MY 2018/19. And that risk again is likely to provi … midst of the 2017 Kansas corn harvest.
3. Major Corn Market Considerations for Fall 2017 through Spring 2018
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “new crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating”
factor limiting the response of the corn market to 2017 summer‐early fall production risks that occurred. The
cor …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
ough winter 2017‐
2018 on into early Spring 2018 are likely to be limited by ending stocks of U.S. corn in the 2.250‐2.500 bb
range, coupled with ending stocks‐to‐use of 16.0%‐17.5% for the 2017/18 marketing year. However, in
Spring‐early Summer 2018 the U.S. corn market is likely again to have to weigh the annual risk of weather‐
limiting 201 …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
rd high 252.1 mmt up from
240.65 mmt last year, and 217.2 mmt two years ago, and 4) World wheat percent ending stocks‐to‐use (S/U) of
34.1% ‐ up from 33.8% last year, and from 30.8% two years ago – up to the highest level since MY 2005/06.
For a perspective on how historically large World total wheat stocks and World wheat percent stocks‐to‐use
now are, in MY 2007/08 the 34‐year low in World wheat ending stocks of 128.1 mmt and at least a 57‐year low
in percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 20.75% stocks/use both occurred – the last major World wheat “short crop”
marketing year. The situation in MY 2007/08 compares to projections of 252.1 mmt ending stocks and 34.1%
ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “current” MY 2016/17. The “large crop‐over supply” situation that now
exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on U.S. and
World wheat prices.
However, the broader large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be “hiding”
at least a couple of other important market issues. First, while the quantity of wheat available in the World is
plentiful, the available supply of high protein milling wheat is less so. This factor may eventually help exports
of both U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat (higher protein – good quality) and U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat (moderate protein – good quality) relative to World wheat export competitors. As evidence of this,
exports of U.S. HRW wheat have been occurring at the pace needed to meet USDA projections – helped by
both low purchase prices and acceptable protein and quality. This raises the outside possibility of improved
U.S. HRW prices in coming months. Second, while the supply of wheat in World markets overall has grown,
the supply of wheat in the “World Less China” is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” in
“current crop” MY 2016/17 compared to a year ago – down to the tightest supply‐balances situation since MY
2013/14. If this “China factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available global supplies of exportable
wheat to occur in coming months, it could have a positive impact U.S. wheat market prices in Spring 2017.
Even so, given the broader World wheat market’s current focus – it is likely that significant World wheat
production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices
recover significantly by spring‐summer 2017. Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate is a serious
negative factor that is limiting the competitive affordability of U.S. wheat exports. These factors have resulted
in higher U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and have caused U.S. and Kansas wheat cash
prices to fall sharply – down to and below the marketing loan rate in most of Kansas in fall / early winter 2016.
Page | 2
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: On December 1, 2016 the USDA
released their preliminary Long Term Agricultural Projections to 2026, in which they projected 2017 U.S.
wheat plantings of 48.500 million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in 2015. The USDA also forecast 2016
harvested acres of 41.100 ma which would be down from 43.890 ma a year ago. Trendline 2017 wheat yields
for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac, while 2017 U.S. wheat
production is forecast to be 1.936 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015. Projected “next crop” MY
2017/18 total supplies are 3.199 bb (down from 3.410 bb in “current” MY 2016/17), with total use of 2.206 bb
(down from 2.267 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks of 933 million bushels (mb)
(vs 1.143 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.0% S/U (vs 50.4% last year and 50.0% the
previous year). United States wheat average prices are projected to average $4.00 /bu – up from $3.70 in
“current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed
by Kansas State University that these USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of
occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume lower 2017 U.S. planted (47.624 ma) and harvested (38.385 ma)
wheat acres than the USDA – due to larger than normal amounts of “graze out” and “crop switching” in 2017.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield” Scenario (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18:
47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb total supplies,
960 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total use, 876 mb ending stocks, 39.98% S/U, & $4.00‐
$4.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield, +20% Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop”
MY 2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb
total supplies, 1.152 bb exports***, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.383 bb total use, 684 mb ending stocks,
24.10% S/U, & $5.25‐$5.75 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Lower Acres, Short Crop Yield” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac low yield***, 1.674 bb production, 2.937 bb
total supplies, 925 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.156 bb total use, 781 mb ending stocks, 36.22%
S/U, & $4.40‐$4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…