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June 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… … 2015 CME eSoybean Futures
October 20, 2014 – June 19, 2015
Close = $9.39 ¾ on 6/19/2015
Page | 5
“New crop” NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures contract prices also responded in a negative manner to the
information in the June 10th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME NOVEMBER 2015 futures
prices opened at $9.25 /bu, and traded as high as $9.31 ¾ and as low as $9.18 during the session, before
settling at $9.21 ¾ – down $0.03 ¾ for the day. Since then NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures prices have
traded within the range from a low of $8.95 ¾ on June 15th, a high of $9.46 ½ on June 18th, before closing at
$9.39 ¾ on Friday, June 19th.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher since mid‐July 2011, but has
trended all that much more sharply higher since early July 2014 (Figure 2). After an index value of 75.69 on July
1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, March 13,
2015 – an increase of 23.4%. Since then the index has moved sideways to lower in a volatile manner, with a
High‐Low range of 93.10 (March 16th) to 87.57 (May 13th), with the latest recorded value of 89.33 on June 12,
2015.
Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. soybean and other
grain markets, because a …
September 27, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. 2016/17 ($9.40 Avg$)
Page | 6
United States). Over the January 1980 through August 2016 period the global soybean price has sloped
marginally upward at a rate of +$0.005 per bushel per month.
Since 1980 there has been a negative correlation of ‐0.582 between the U.S. Trade Weighted dollar index
and the global price of soybeans. This indicates that the global price of soybeans – typically denominated in
U.S. dollars – has a negative or inverse relationship over‐time with the value of the U.S. dollar.
The upward trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid‐2014 has been a
significant negative factor for U.S. wheat and other U.S. crops in grain expo …
December 11, 2018
and
1990s have not offset other problems.
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