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December 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
prospects for a corn futures price rally above say $5.00 appear limited – unless
unexpected and substantial crop production problems occur in other major coarse grain produc … … dgrains, wheat, soybeans
and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday,
January 12, 2015. On that same day USDA NASS will also release the January 2015 Crop Production,
December Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐
demand and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years.
The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing
year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends for the October‐December 2014 Period
Since the beginning of October 2014 corn futures prices have been generally trending higher – indicating at
the low trading price of $3.18 ¼ for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract were indeed the fall harvest
low (i.e., unless March 2015 CME corn futures prices drop sharply before the end of this month). The
DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract “went off the board” at $3.96 ¼ on December 12, 2014, closing up
$0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.
A time of seasonal market weakness typically has occurred during the months of January‐February in large
crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again sometime before spring,
2015. However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract on October 1st could be a
key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal price decline occur in
coming months.
The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative
manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher. On the day
of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures
prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.98 ¼ during the session, before
settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at
approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAR 2015
has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.12 ½ on Monday, December 15th
before closing at $4.08 ½ on that same day.
Page | 3
The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through mid‐March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments
are made off of for current cash corn and grain sorghum price bids are made off of in North American grain
markets.
The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.16 ¾ ‐ $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of
$4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.36 ½ on Monday, December 15th, before closing at $4.32 ¾
on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through mid‐December 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” corn and grain sorghum forward
contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
February 6, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… changed its projection of 2013 U.S. other spring wheat planted acre … …
June 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… … 2015 CME eSoybean Futures
October 20, 2014 – June 19, 2015
Close = $9.39 ¾ on 6/19/2015
Page | 5
“New crop” NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures contract prices also responded in a negative manner to the
information in the June 10th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME NOVEMBER 2015 futures
prices opened at $9.25 /bu, and traded as high as $9.31 ¾ and as low as $9.18 during the session, before
settling at $9.21 ¾ – down $0.03 ¾ for the day. Since then NOVEMBER 2015 soybean futures prices have
traded within the range from a low of $8.95 ¾ on June 15th, a high of $9.46 ½ on June 18th, before closing at
$9.39 ¾ on Friday, June 19th.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher since mid‐July 2011, but has
trended all that much more sharply higher since early July 2014 (Figure 2). After an index value of 75.69 on July
1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, March 13,
2015 – an increase of 23.4%. Since then the index has moved sideways to lower in a volatile manner, with a
High‐Low range of 93.10 (March 16th) to 87.57 (May 13th), with the latest recorded value of 89.33 on June 12,
2015.
Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. soybean and other
grain markets, because a …
September 27, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. 2016/17 ($9.40 Avg$)
Page | 6
United States). Over the January 1980 through August 2016 period the global soybean price has sloped
marginally upward at a rate of +$0.005 per bushel per month.
Since 1980 there has been a negative correlation of ‐0.582 between the U.S. Trade Weighted dollar index
and the global price of soybeans. This indicates that the global price of soybeans – typically denominated in
U.S. dollars – has a negative or inverse relationship over‐time with the value of the U.S. dollar.
The upward trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index since mid‐2014 has been a
significant negative factor for U.S. wheat and other U.S. crops in grain expo …
March 1, 2006
Dairy
decisions. One parlor will not meet the
needs of all dairy … prefer some
materials over others. Occupancy percent
ranged … cows
more than heifers. Other studies have
reported similar …
April 3, 2024
Methods and Supporting Information
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
April 3, 2024
Methods and Supporting Information
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
December 1, 2015
Beef Cattle
current knowledge gap. In meeting this objective we seek to … Manager 0.061 0.240 0 1
Other 0.014 0.117 0 1 … 39.319 0 100
Other forage source …
April 1, 2005
Industry Economics & Trade
new investments,
whereas others invested up to $84,000 in … South
Korea, Mexico, and other major markets come
to a … infectious agent of
BSE (and other TSEs).
2 Center for Disease …
December 24, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… … edgrains, wheat, soybeans and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop
Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same day USDA NASS will
also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. grain sorghum and World
coarse grain supply‐demand projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing
years. The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. grain
sorghum marketing year began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. CME Corn Futures Trends for the October‐December 2014 Period
Local cash grain sorghum prices are determined by local basis adjustments relative to corn futures
contracts. In this section, recent trends in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices are
examined – given their relevance to cash grain sorghum prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.
Since the beginning of October 2014 corn futures prices have been generally trending higher – indicating at
the low trading price of $3.18 ¼ for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract were indeed the fall harvest
low (i.e., unless March 2015 CME corn futures prices drop sharply before the end of this month). The
DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract “went off the board” at $3.96 ¼ on December 12, 2014, closing up
$0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.
A time of seasonal market weakness for U.S. feedgrain prices has typically occurred during the months of
January‐February in large crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again
sometime before spring, 2015. However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract
on October 1st could be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal
price decline occur in coming months.
The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative
manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher. On the day
of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures
prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.98 ¼ during the session, before
Page | 3
settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at
approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAR 2015
has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.14 ¼ on Monday, December 22nd
before closing at $4.11 ¾ on that same day.
The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through mid‐March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments
are made off of for current cash grain sorghum and corn price bids are made off of in North American grain
markets.
The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.16 ¾ ‐ $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of
$4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.37 ¾ on Monday, December 22nd before closing at $4.34
¾ on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through mid‐December 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” grain sorghum and corn forward
contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …