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February 13, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
In the February 8, 2019 USDA Annual 2018 Crop Production Summary report the USDA lowered its’
projection of 2018 U.S. corn production by 206 million bushels (mb) down to 14.420 bb due to late
harvest and other production limiting influe … S. corn crop size occurred by itself with no other supply‐demand adjustments, it would be at least a
moderately positive factor for U.S. corn market prices.
o …
September 1, 2009
Assessing Business Opportunities
Abstract
Business development is crucial for sustained economic progress and individual well‐being.
This paper describes how to provide support for business development efforts in communities
in conflict environments or only recently emerged from conflict environments. It uses the
Cascade Approach® to provide a clear and practical framework for developing businesses that
are carefully and deliberately discovered by people who are passionate about them and are
capable of marshaling the requisite resources to transform ideas into exploitable value.
The author is an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State
University. He may be reached by telephone at (785) 532‐3520 and by email at
vincent@ksu.edu.
There are worksheets accompanying this paper and they are available at www.Agmanager.info.
Contents
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1
Research Problem and Paper Outline ......................................................................................... 1
PART I: PHILOSOPHICAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................... 3
The Geography of Economic Thought ........................................................................................ 3
Our Assumptions Are Not Necessarily Universal ........................................................................ 4
Establishing the Purpose for Action ............................................................................................ 6
PART II: OPPORTUNITY DISCOVERY AND ASSESSMENT.................................................................. 8
Defining the Person Searching for Opportunities ....................................................................... 8
The Conscious Search for Opportunities .................................................................................... 9
Assessment of Identified Opportunities ................................................................................... 11
Transforming Opportunities into Exploitable Value ................................................................. 12
Marshaling of Strategic Resources ........................................................................................... 16
Assigning Responsibilities ......................................................................................................... 18
PART III: FROM STRATEGIC THINKING TO STRATEGIC ACTION .................................................... 19
There Are No Islands ................................................................................................................. 19
Executing the Ideas ................................................................................................................... 20
There Are No Linearities, Expect Breakdowns .......................................................................... 22
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................. 23
REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 24
1
Practical Strategies for Business Development in
Conflict and Post‐Conflict Environments
Vincent Amanor‐Boadu
August 2009
INTRODUCTION
Conflicts can have adverse effects on people’s decision‐making capacity
and influence their relationships. This is because conflicts affect the
sensemaking that people bring to events and situations. Entrepreneurial
actions are based on creativity. They are driven by a way of thinking and
seeing that presents valuable opportunities which may be exploited for
the value they present. Given that entrepreneurs in conflict and post‐
conflict environments can be affected immeasurably by the subtle and
not‐so‐subtle events that define and characterize their experiences, their
ability to see opportunities and assess them is frequently affected by
these events. Thus, working in conflict or post‐conflict environments can
arduous because one has to negotiate one’s own sensemaking processes
as well navigate those of the people with whom one is working.
Despite these challenges, the work can be very rewarding if those
working on business development in these environments can develop the
right appreciation of the fundamentals of entrepreneurial business
development and understanding resource availability and constraints.
Their efforts can yield some positive effects if they can understand their
entrepreneurs’ capabilities and their capacities to overcome these
constraints as well as their audacity to drive towards their defined
objectives. These fruitful outcomes were observed in Japan and Europe
after the Second World War, when U.S. economic support under the
Marshall Plan helped leverage the inherent capabilities of Europeans and
Japanese to overcome the scourge of that conflict.
Research Problem and Paper Outline
This paper is framed to guide people working with nascent entrepreneurs
in conflict or post‐conflict environments embark on business
development initiatives. It focuses on the strategic aspects of business
development—opportunity discovery and assessment, resource
marshaling and execution of strategic plans. The tactical issues related to
business formation and marketing of products and services are treated
under a different title. Besides, the strategic issues discussed here are
less culture and location‐dependent than the tactical issues, allowing us
to discuss them in more generic terms. The paper’s overall objective,
2
then, is to provide the strategic processes that may be used to help with
business start‐ups and entrepreneurial renewal in conflict and post‐
conflict environments.
The people in conflict and post‐conflict environments are generally
different from the people who offer help and support that go beyond
culture. As Richard Nesbitt observed in his book The Geography of
Thought, these differences are embedded in the way people are
conditioned to “see” and interpret what they see. The tools for
seeing and interpreting are thought and language. Therefore,
the paper is divided into two principal parts. The first part
provides the philosophical framework for enhancing our
geography of thought capacity to facilitate business
development. It encompasses the development of a shared
seeing and a common language to communicate the thoughts
emanating from what is seen. Following that, I make the case
for clarity and completeness in the definition of the objectives
or the things that the business initiative seeks to achieve.
Stephen Covey defines this as “first things first” in his highly popular
bestseller, 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.
The second part of the paper uses the foregoing philosophical framework
to lay out a process for embarking on entrepreneurship‐driven business
development. The process presented here is based on the Cascade
Approach® I have developed and have been using with various
organizations for the past 15 years. The process involves the crafting of a
strategic direction for the business initiative—encompassing a vision,
mission and core value—and the development of an operations plan to
achieve the vision. We define the business’ objectives within the context
of specific business initiatives, developing a process for scoping for
opportunities and crafting strategies for translating the selected
objectives into exploitable value. The execution of the resulting plan
depends on resources and this is presented and discussed in the final
section of the paper.
The foundational philosophy of the strategic processes presented in this
paper is the metaphor of the river’s ultimate purpose: the desire to
empty itself into a larger body of water. The river’s commitment to this
purpose is such that it cannot be stopped regardless the size and might of
the obstacles in its path. It may be slowed down, but in the end, it
always achieves its purpose. This thought is reflected by Margaret
Wheatley in her book Leadership and the New Science. This metaphor is
appealing because the river exhibits the primary characteristics of
successful entrepreneurial business developers: tenacity, commitment
and passion.
3
PART I: PHILOSOPHICAL FRAMEWORK
The Geography of Economic Thought
Many years ago, I was a graduate student in Nigeria, working on the
economics of small farmer agriculture. My major professor, a respected
Nigerian production economist, invited me to accompany him to a
seminar at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) one
afternoon. The seminar was on the price response of Senegalese rice
farmers and was being presented by a visiting World Bank economist.
The essence of the presenter’s story was that an increase in rice price led
to a decrease in rice supply. He concluded from this that the African
small farmer is irrational because supply should increase with price
increases.
The room, filled with many of my professors, was very quiet after the
visiting economist completed his presentation. I could not understand
their silence because there was, obviously, something drastically wrong
with the irrationality conclusion. I knew this because I have lived with
some of these small farmers. But beyond my individual anecdotal
evidence, my master’s thesis was showing similar results—a negative
supply response—but I could not believe irrationality was a reasonable
explanation.1 I think my old professor invited me because he thought the
seminar will help me.
I asked the presenter what was measured as the farmers’ response to
price. “Did you measure production, acreage, marketed surplus or did all
of these return the same sign on price?” I asked.
After a little discussion, it became obvious that the measured response
variable was marketed surplus. That is, they measured how much the
farmers offered for sale, and not how much they produced.
“African small farmers will sell less of their total production when price
goes up and vice versa,” I heard my professor say something to that
effect. This is because African small farmers have a constant demand for
money—just enough to meet their purchase needs (school uniforms and
fees, books, salt, fish, etc. The negative sign on price was not due to
irrationality of the African small farmer at all, but to the capturing of the
wrong response metric to price.
Martin Brownbridge and his colleagues provide empirical support for the
constant demand for money theory as well as the low rate of savings
1 …
July 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Futures
November 21, 2014 – July 22, 2015
Close = $5.62 ¾ on 7/22/2015
SEPT 2015 CME KS Wheat Futures
November 21, 2014 – July 22, 2015
Close = $5.12 ¼ on 7/22/2015
Page | 3
Similarly, CME JULY 2016 Hard Red Winter wheat futures prices opened at $6.23 ½ on Wednesday, July
10th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time) – and traded in a high‐
low range of $6.33 down to $6.15 during the session, before closing $0.05 ½ lower for the day at $6.19 ¼ /bu
(Figure 1). Since the July 10th USDA WASDE report, CME JULY 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded
sharply lower – from a high of $6.17 ¼ on Monday, July 13th to a low of $5.60 ¾ on Wednesday, July 22nd,
before closing at $5.62 ¾ that same day.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index trended higher from mid‐July 2011 through early July 2014 (Figure
2). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014, the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to
a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. The latest recorded value of the Trade
Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 90.78 on July 10, 2015 – moving sideways‐to‐lower from the July 2014 highs.
Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. wheat market,
because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more
expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars. After they
would have purchased or exchanged their currencies for “high priced” U.S. dollars, they would then in turn use
these U.S. dollars to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars).
Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports, it is a very important one –
working against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World wheat trade.
Since early March the U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index has decline moderately – lending support longer term
prospects for U.S. wheat trade should this down trend continue. …
May 4, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), and a projected amount of 48.7 mmt (1.790 bb) in “current crop”
MY 2014/15 (41.45% of the World total). Projected United States’ soybean exports of 48.7 mmt in “current
crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 8.7% over last year, and up 35.9% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Market
analysts have speculated that Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine
industry production issues or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors within the country.
However, the USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16, and beyond. If this recent upward trend in Chinese
soybean imports and import demand were to falter, it would unquestionably have a substantial negative
impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices at
Farmers Grain Coop in Hutchinson, Kansas (Hutchinson being a major grain market hub in the south central
part of the state) had fallen to as low as $8.44 per bushel on October 26, 2015, before moving above $9.00 on
October 24, 2015. Cash soybean prices at this location have traded in the range of $9.00 (on March 17, 2015)
to $9.95 (on January 6, 2015) since then, with a cash spot price of $9.30 ($0.36 under basis) offered on
midmorning on Friday, May 1st. “Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures were trading at $9.66 per bushel
that day at the time of the $9.30 per bushel bid.
Page | 4
Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the Hutchinson, Kansas area were in
the range of $8.63 / bu. ($0.78 under basis) to $8.91 ($0.50 under basis). “Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean
futures were trading at $9.41 per bushel that day at the time of these new crop forward contract bids.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that
a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be
harvested in early‐mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in
these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The
possibility of weather‐related soybean production problems in the United States during the summer‐fall of
2015 could impact these trends. However, until such potential production problems actually do occur the
World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable
future.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends
“Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the April 9th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME MARCH 2015 futures
prices opened at $9.71 ¼ /bu, and traded as high as $9.72 and as low as $9.50 ¼ during the session, before
settling at $9.53 ½ – down $0.18 for the day. Since then MAY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within
the range from a low of $9.44 ½ on April 10th, to a low of $9.97 ¼ on April 30th, before closing at $9.68 ½ on
Friday, May 1st.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
June 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
eat producing and exporting areas in year 2015 and beyond.
The June 30th USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports may provide direction to the wheat market – both
in regards 2015 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage and production prospects, as well as the amount of
U.S. wheat feeding and other uses that have occurred during the March‐May 2015 time frame.
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast: For U.S. wheat in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing
year, the USDA projected that there would be 55.367 million acres (ma) planted, 47.977 ma harvested, 44.2
bu/ac yields, 2.121 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.973 bb total supplies, 925 million bushel (mb) exports,
195 mb feed & residual use, 2.159 bb total use, 814 mb end stocks, with 37.7% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (the
highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/08). The USDA projected U.S. average wheat prices for “new crop” MY
2015/16 in the range of $4.40‐$5.40 /bu. (midpoint =$4.90) – the lowest since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
KSU U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast: Key market factors for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are the
level of 2015 U.S. wheat production, and the degree of recovery in U.S. wheat exports. Kansas State University
projections of “new crop” MY 2015/16 supply‐demand balances and prices are represented in two scenarios:
A) “Medium Yield‐Higher Exports” Scenario: 65% prob. of 55.367 ma planted, 46.557 ma harvested, 43.9
bu/ac yield, 2.044 bb production, 2.895 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 2.194 bb total use, 702 mb ending
stocks, 32.0% S/U, and $5.50 /bu U.S. avg. price. B) “Lower Yield‐Higher Exports” Scenario: 35% prob. of
55.367 ma planted, 46.557 ma harvested, 42.5 bu/ac lower yield, 1.979 bb production, 2.841 bb total supplies,
1.000 bb exports, 2.196 bb total use, 645 mb ending stocks, 29.4% S/U, and $6.10 /bu U.S. avg. price.
USDA World Wheat: Prospects for large World wheat supplies and stocks are causing lower World wheat
market prices. World wheat total supplies of 922.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 916.3 mmt in
MY 2014/15, and from 893.7 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY
2015/16 of 202.4 mmt (28.1% S/U) are up from 200.4 mmt (28.0% S/U) in MY 2014/15, and from 190.0 mmt
(27.0% S/U) in MY 2013/14. For perspective, these recent supply‐demand figures can be compared to the
historic World wheat ending stocks and stocks‐to‐use minimums of 128.75 mmt and 20.9% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. June 10th USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On June 10th the USDA released two reports, the June 2015 Crop Production report from the National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), and the June 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report from the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).
In the June 10th Crop Production report the USDA released projections of the 2015 U.S. wheat crop.
Projections of 2015 crop size for wheat are based on actual farmer surveys and field trials conducted from May
25th to June 5th by USDA NASS – representing crop conditions and production prospects as of June 1, 2015. The
June 10th WASDE report contained U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price projections for the
2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The “current” 2014/15
marketing year for U.S. wheat ended on May 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. wheat marketing
year began on June 1, 2015, and will last through May 31, 2016.
I‐B. CME KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.03 ¾ per bushel for the CME JULY 2015 Kansas hard red winter wheat efutures
contract occurring on December 18, 2014, July futures have trended sharply lower – down to a low of $5.37 on
February 2, 2015. Then after rising to a high of $5.86 on February 17, 2015, JULY 2015 futures fell again to
$5.22 ¾ on March 6th. Another round of an upward price trend to above $5.90 in early April was followed by a
decline to below $4.90 in early May, and then a rise to $5.63 ¾ on May 18th, and $5.64 ½ on May 21st. Then
after a decline to as low as $4.95 ¾ on May 29th, prices rose as high as $5.53 ¾ on June 5th and $5.54 on June
9th – the day prior to the June 10th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) JULY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat efutures prices responded to the
release of the June 10th USDA reports by trading sharply lower for the day. JULY 2015 HRW wheat efutures
prices opened at $5.48 on Wednesday, June 10th ‐ trading as high as $5.53 ½ and as low as $5.29 ¼ per bushel
during the session before closing $0.17 ¾ lower for the day at $5.30 ½ /bu (Figure 1). The USDA reports were
released at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time).
Since the June 10th USDA report, CME JULY 2015 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded sharply lower –
from a high of $5.34 on Thursday, June 11th to a low of $5.05 ¼ on Tuesday, June 16th, before closing at $5.05 ½
on Wednesday, June 17th.
Similarly, CME DEC 2015 Hard Red Winter wheat efutures prices opened at $5.76 ½ on Wednesday, June
10th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time) – and traded in a high‐
low range of $5.82 ¼ down to $5.56 ¼ during the session before closing $0.20 lower for the day at $5.32 ¾ /bu
(Figure 1). Since the June 10th USDA report, CME DEC 2015 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded sharply
lower – from a high of $5.60 ¼ on Thursday, June 11th to a low of $5.32 on Tuesday, June 16th, before closing at
$5.33 ¾ on Wednesday, June 17th.
Page | 3
Figure 1. JULY 2015 & DECEMBER 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
December 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
oduct supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. soybeans began on September 1,
2015 and will last through August 31, 2016. For soybean meal and soybean oil, the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year began on October 1, 2015 and will last through September 30, 2016.
I‐B. Commentary on World Soybean Market Trends
The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by
recognizing several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade
among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade. The primary countries involved in
or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, and South American
countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others) and the United States i …
February 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
March 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $6.74 ½
on Friday, Feb. 14
July 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $6.57
on Friday, Feb. 14
Page | 3
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Production
Total U.S. Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production in “Current” MY 2013/14
The USDA left unchanged its projection of U.S. 2013 planted acreage of 56.156 million acres (ma) – up
from both 55.666 ma in 2012, and 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). Projected 2013 harvested
acreage was also unchanged at 45.157 ma – down from both 48.921 ma in 2012 and 45.705 ma in 2011. The
2013 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 80.4%, down from 87.9%
in 2012, 84.0% in 2011 – falling to the lowest level since 76.0% in 2002.
Projected 2013 U.S. average wheat yield of 47.2 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high (Table 1 and
Figure 3), being above to the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, and above 43.7 bu/ac in 2011.
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. wheat production to be 2.130 billion bushels (bb) –down
from a 2.266 bb in 2012, while being up from 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Production in 2013 & Planted Acreage for the 2014 Crop
In its January 10th Winter Wheat Seedings report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage
seeded in the fall of 2013 for harvest in 2014 to be 41.892 million acres (ma) – down from 43.090 ma in 2013,
but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). No projections of 2014 winter wheat
harvested acreage, yields or production have yet been made by the USDA.
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. winter wheat planted acreage at 43.090 million acres
(ma), with projected 2013 winter wheat harvested acreage was also unchanged at 32.402 ma – down from
34.734 ma in 2012, but greater than 32.314 ma in 2011. The 2013 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage
for all U.S. winter wheat is projected to be 79.5% (just below the recent average), down from 84.3% in 2012,
but up from 75.2% in 2011. During the 2000‐2013 time period, U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐
planted acreage averaged 79.8%, with a median (i.e., 50th percentile) of 79.7%, and a a low‐high range of
71.2%‐85.5%.
Projected 2013 U.S. average winter wheat yields of 47.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) are marginally above 47.3
bu/ac in 2012, and above 46.2 bu/ac in 2011. The USDA projected 2013 U.S. winter wheat production to be
1.534 bb – down from a 1.641 bb in 2012, but up from 1.494 bb in 2011.
U.S. Other Spring Wheat
The USDA …
December 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
…
Page | 4
I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
I‐a. December 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World grain sorghum
supply‐demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing
years (MY). The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through
August 31, 2018. Monthly USDA WASDE estimates of U.S. crop and livestock supply‐demand and prices can
be found at the following web address: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its December 2017
Crop Production report. This report can be found at the following web address:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd‐12‐12‐2017.pdf
The next survey‐based report of U.S. corn production results for 2017 will be released in the USDA Annual
Crop Production Summary and Crop Production reports on January 12, 2018. The same U.S. on‐farm grain
sorghum plots which were sampled for the August, September, October, and November USDA NASS Crop
Production reports will revisited for the January 2018 report – with final 2017 post‐harvest production results
reported.
On November 28, 2017 the USDA released its Long Term Agricultural Projections through year 2027.
United States’ grain sorghum supply‐demand and price projections were included, along with corn, wheat,
soybeans, cotton and other major crops. These Long Term Agricultural Projections can be found at the
following website: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/
I‐b. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Average Price Trends
During the eighteen (18) year period from the 1999/2000 through 2016/17 marketing years the typical
season price pattern for grain sorghum in Kansas exhibited pronounced pre‐harvest through harvest lows
during September‐October (Figure 2). Then prices have trended higher from November through April,
becoming level at seasonal highs during the April through June period. Kansas grain sorghum prices then
tended to decline from June into July, and then to decline further into August. The widest variability around
these average seasonal price trends occurred during the June through September period.
So far during the “new crop” 2017/18 marketing year which began on September 1, 2017, U.S. grain
sorghum prices declined from September‐October into November, but have recovered from November lows
into December 2017 in a stronger manner than normal (Figure 2). Contra‐seasonal strength in U.S. grain
sorghum prices in December 2017 is attributed to strong demand for U.S. grain sorghum exports – primary
from China and Japan.
These long‐term average price trends for Kansas are compared to projections of “new crop” MY 2017/18
U.S. grain sorghum average prices. These projections are based on U.S. cash grain sorghum and corn prices for
Page | 5
September and October 2017 from USDA NASS, CME corn futures prices on December 26, 2017, and 2016/17
marketing years monthly average U.S. corn basis levels.
This updated version of Kansas State University projections for the complete “new crop” MY 2017/18
projects U.S. grain sorghum season average prices to average $3.25 per bushel. This is up $0.15 per bushel
from the December 12th USDA WASDE midpoint projection of $3.10, but within the upper end of the USDA
forecast range of $2.75‐$3.45 per bushel (Figure 2). These findings indicated that it is likely SEPT 2018 and DEC
2018 CME corn futures prices are higher than they would be if grain markets were more confident at this time
of “average‐to‐large” 2018 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops. These corn futures contract prices are likely to
decline in Spring‐early Summer 2018 IF significant combined U.S. corn and grain sorghum production problems
ultimately do NOT emerge in the growing season next year.
Figure 2. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Price Index (MY 1999/00 – MY 2016/17) plus “New Crop”
MY 2017/18 Estimates as of December 26, 2017 (Sources: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐
products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
II. U.S. Grain Sorghum Acreage, Yield, Production & Total Supplies
Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand balance sheet for the MY 2008/09 through
“new crop” MY 2017/18 period. Table 1a focuses on “new crop” MY 2017/18 with the December 12th USDA
projection plus alternative possible market scenarios from Kansas State University. An adjusted version of the
USDA’s Long Term Agricultural Projection for U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and prices with forecasts for
“next crop” MY 2018/19 is also included in Table 1a. Grain sorghum planted and harvested planted acreage in
the U.S. for the 2006 – projected 2018 period are shown in Figure 2, with U.S. grain sorghum yields for 2006
through projected 2018 shown in Figure 3. United States’ grain sorghum production and total supplies for the
2005/06 through projected “next crop” 2018/19 marketing years are shown in Figure 4.
95 …
March 30, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
gularly occurring in South America and the United States. Strong demand for
soybean imports from China, Japan, and other Asian countries have supported World soybean prices.
Longer term, from MY 2007/08 to “old crop” MY 2017/18, this strong upward trend in World soybean
production (up 5.6% annually) has “out‐paced” increases in World soybean use (up 5.0% per year). As long as
growth in World soybean production continues to outpace World soybean usage, then World soybean stocks
will remain at high levels with prices continuing at their current “moderate” levels – being affected positively
be ongoing strength in demand, but held “in check” by more than adequate world supplies.
The potential for soybean market disruptions from trade policy‐related confrontations between the U.S. and
China has emerged as an issue in early 2018. These economic – geopolitical tensions so far have not resulted
in official direct tariffs or import limitations by China on U.S. soybeans. However, it is reported that Chinese
buyers of soybeans have responded by aggressively pursuing Brazilian soybean imports, and to a degree have
at least moderated their purchases of U.S. soybeans in recent months. So, although no official action has been
taken by China against U.S. soybean imports, such tensions have to a degree already affected U.S. soybean
trade by “pressuring” Chinese buyers to redirect their buying focus toward Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and
wherever else globally they can secure soybean and oilseed products.
B. Soybean Market Response to the March 8th & 29th USDA Reports
Since the USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on March 8th
soybean futures prices had moved primarily lower. From the March 8th close of $10.64, CME MAY 2018
Soybean futures prices have traded from a high of $10.63 on 3/9/2018 down to a low of $10.09 ¼ on March
23rd, before closing at $10.18 on Wednesday, March 28th – the day prior to the USDA Quarterly Stocks &
Prospective Plantings reports on March 29th. Then on the day of the March 29th USDA reports, CME MAY
2018 Soybean futures responded positively, trading from a low of $10.12 ½ to a high of $10.50 ¾ before
closing at $10.44 ¾ – up $0.26 ¾ per bushel for the day.
Kansas cash soybean prices at terminals in central and eastern Kansas ranged from $9.42 ¾ to $9.89 ¾ /bu on
March 29th – with basis ranging from $1.02 under to $0.60 under MAY 2018 Soybean futures. That same day
in western Kansas, major grain elevator bids ranged from $9.10 to $9.45 per bushel – with basis ranging from
$1.35 under to $1.00 under.
C. World Soybean Supply‐Demand Findings in the March 8th WASDE USDA Report
On March 8th for the “old crop” 2017/18 marketing year (MY) to end on August 31, 2018, the USDA projected
the following.
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First, that World soybean total supplies would be 437.5 million metric tons (mmt) (down 3.0%) with total use
of 34.8 mmt (up 4.2%) for “old crop” MY 2017/18. With supplies moving lower and demand increasing, there
has been a moderate “tightening” of projected World ending stocks of soybeans.
Second, that World soybean exports will continue trending higher – up to a record high to 150.6 mmt in the
“old crop” 2017/18 marketing year. This amount of World soybean exports of 150.6 mmt in “old crop” MY
2017/18 would be up from previous records of 147.5 mmt last year, and 132.6 mmt two years ago. World
soybean exports have been growing annually at a 9.1% rate since the 2007/08 marketing year.
Third, that World soybean ending stocks would be a 94.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 ‐ down from the
record high of 96.65 mmt in MY 2016/17, but still up from 78.3 mmt in MY 2015/16. Overall, World soybean
ending stocks have grown at an 8.0% rate annually since the 2007/08 marketing year.
Fourth, that World soybean percent ending stocks‐to‐use (% S/U) would be 27.5% ‐ the 2nd highest on record
but down from the record high of 29.3% last year, while being up from 24.9% and 25.7% the two years prior.
D. USDA U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand for “Old Crop” MY 2017/18 & “New Crop” MY 2018/19
The USDA released their soybean production, supply‐demand and price projections for the U.S. for “old crop”
MY 2017/18 in the March 8th WASDE report, for “new crop” MY 2018/19 in its February 23rd USDA Ag Outlook
Forum projections, for 2018 planted acres in the March 29th Prospective Plantings report, and for November‐
February 2018 usage of U.S. soybeans and March 29th Grain Stocks report.
U.S. soybean plantings are forecast to be 88.982 million acres (ma) in 2018, down from 90.142 ma in 2017, and
83.433 ma in 2016. Harvested acres are forecast by Kansas State University to be 88.222 ma in 2018 (99.15%
harvested‐to‐planted – latest 5 year average), down 1.45% from 89.522 ma in year 2017, but up 6.7% from
82.696 ma in 2016.
The 2018 U.S. average soybean yield is forecast at 48.5 bu/ac, down from a KSU‐adjusted estimate of 49.79
bu/ac in 2017, and from the 2016 record of 52.0 bu/acre. This KSU adjustment to the most recent official
USDA estimate on March 8th was made following the March 29th grain stocks report. The USDA estimate of
March 1, 2018 U.S. soybean stocks came in approximately 65 mb larger than trade estimates. Given that
estimates of U.S. soybean domestic crush, exports, and seed use for the November‐February 2018 quarter are
known with some accuracy, it seems that the unexplained increase in U.S. soybean stocks on March 1st may be
due to the USDA underestimating the size of the 2017 U.S. soybean crop. As a result, if 2017 soybean planted
and harvested acreage are left unchanged, and 65 mb is added to the size of the 2017 U.S. soybean crop, then
this KSU‐adjusted estimate of 2017 U.S. soybean yields is raised to 49.79 bu/ac – up from the latest USDA’s
official 2017 U.S. soybean yield estimate of 49.1 bu/ac.
Soybean production in the U.S. in 2018 is forecast to be 4.279 billion bushels (bb), down from the KSU‐
adjusted record high of 4.457 bb in 2017 (vs the latest USDA estimate of 4.392 bb – see discussion above), but
up from 4.296 bb in 2016. After these adjustments, projected “new crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. soybean total
supplies are forecast at 4.924 bb, up from a KSU‐adjusted 4.783 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from 4.515
bb in MY 2016/17. Record high U.S. soybean total use of 4.415 bb is forecast for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up
from 4.163 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from 4.213 bb in MY 2016/17.
With previously mentioned changes in 2017 U.S. soybean production resulting from the outcome of the March
29th Grain Stocks report, the KSU‐adjusted USDA projection for “new crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. soybean ending
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stocks equals 509 million bushels (mb) (11.52% stocks/use), down from a KSU‐adjusted estimate of 620 mb in
“new crop” MY 2017/18 (14.89% stocks/use), but up from 302 mb in MY 2016/17 (7.17% stocks/use).
United States’ soybean prices are projected to average $9.40 /bu in “new crop” MY 2018/19, up from $9.30
/bu in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but down from $9.47 in MY 2016/17, and comparable to $8.95 /bu in MY
2015/16, and $10.10 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is estimated by Kansas State University that these KSU‐adjusted
USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19 have a 55% probability of occurring.
D. Two Alternative KSU U.S. Soybean S/D Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the KSU‐adjusted USDA February 23rd projection for “new
crop” MY 2018/19, two potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices are presented.
KSU Scenario 1) “HIGHER 2018 U.S. Soybean Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (25%
probability): 88.982 ma planted, 99.15% harvested‐to‐planted, 88.222 ma harvested, 52.0 bu/ac average
yield, 4.588 bb production, 5.233 bb total supplies, 2.350 bb exports, 2.000 bb domestic crush, 135 mb seed &
residual use, 4.485 bb total use, 748 mb ending stocks, 16.68% Stocks/Use, & $8.50 /bu U.S. soybean average
price.
KSU Scenario 1) “LOWER 2018 U.S. Soybean Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (20%
probability): 88.982 ma planted, 99.15% harvested‐to‐planted, 88.222 ma harvested, 42.0 bu/ac average
yield, 3.705 bb production, 4.350 bb total supplies, 2.000 bb exports, 1.960 bb domestic crush, 135 mb seed &
residual use, 4.095 bb total use, 255 mb ending stocks, 6.23% Stocks/Use, & $11.00 /bu U.S. soybean average
price.
…
March 7, 2025
Methods and Supporting Information
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals. “Pork” … pork roast, ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …