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February 13, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
In the February 8, 2019 USDA Annual 2018 Crop Production Summary report the USDA lowered its’
projection of 2018 U.S. corn production by 206 million bushels (mb) down to 14.420 bb due to late
harvest and other production limiting influe … S. corn crop size occurred by itself with no other supply‐demand adjustments, it would be at least a
moderately positive factor for U.S. corn market prices.
o …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
journal
articles and numerous other
publications. He has worked … journal articles, numerous
other publications, a
multitude … packers, processors,
and others to participate in price discovery …
June 25, 2019
Feeder Cattle Pricing
time and in comparison to other agricultural
derivatives … exceptions for November
and other months … on some of CME Group’s other agricultural products—such …
December 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Kazakhstan wheat exports are forecast to be 8.50 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19, down from 9.00 mmt
in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but up from 7.40 mmt in MY 2016/17.
World total usage of wheat is projected to be a record high of 745.25 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19 – up
marginally from 744.16 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from 739.86 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13).
World wheat ending stocks are projected to be 268.10 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19 – the 2nd highest in
history following the record high of 279.94 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and 261.04 mmt in MY 2016/17
(Figure 13). Since MY 2007/08, World wheat ending stocks have been growing an average of 12.7 mmt per
marketing year (by 9.9% annually) from the 10‐year low of 179.02 mmt in MY 2012/13 – out‐pacing the annual
growth in total use of 11.9 mmt per year (+1.9% annually) (Figures 14a‐b).
The distorting effect perpetually large Chinese wheat ending stocks on World wheat ending stocks figures
of will be examined in the following section.
World wheat percent ending stocks‐to‐use (% S/U) are forecast to be 35.97% in “current” MY 2018/19 ‐
the 2nd highest on record (Figures 14a‐b). The record high is 37.62% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, up from
35.28% on MY 2016/17 (3rd highest on record). World wheat % stocks‐to‐use have consistently increased each
year from the recent low of 26.02% in MY 2012/13 to the present – increasing to 28.5% in MY 2013/14; 31.7%
in MY 2014/15; 34.2% in MY 2015/16, 35.3% in MY 2016/17; and to the record high of 37.6% S/U in “old crop”
MY 2017/18; before a projected moderate decline to 36.0% in “current” MY 2018/19.
C. “World‐Less‐China” Wheat Supply‐Demand – “11‐Year LOW Ending Stocks”
The broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market continues to
“obscure” or “mask” the effect of large but somewhat isolated Chinese wheat stocks on actually available
World wheat supplies and stocks.
From a “World‐Less‐China” perspective, forecast ending stocks‐to‐use of 20.01% for “current” MY 2018/19
would be the lowest level in 11 years – since 17.54% S/U in MY 2007/08 (Figures 15a‐b). “World‐Less‐China”
wheat ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to be down sharply from 23.86% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from
the range of 22.05% to 27.48% during the MY 2008/09 – MY 2017/18 period.
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This “World‐Less‐China” perspective compares to the aggregated “World” perspective, in which forecast
World wheat ending stocks‐to‐use of 35.97% for “current” MY 2018/19 would be the 2nd highest level in 12
years – down only from the high of 37.62% S/U in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figures 14a‐b).
IF in coming months this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available
global supplies of purchasable wheat for buyers to gain possession of to meet their domestic needs, it could
yet have a significant positive impact on U.S. and World wheat market prices during the January‐May period of
“current” MY 2018/19. However, unless there is such a noticeable “tightening” in accessible, available wheat
supplies for buyers in the broader, with a predominant move AWAY FROM a large aggregate global supplies
perspective over TO tight available “World‐Less‐China” supplies situation, the market’s attention on this factor
may not positively affect the pro‐active purchasing of World wheat market participants. The information in
the following section may be an impetus for that change.
D. Wheat Futures & Kansas Cash Markets Since the December 11th
CME Kansas HRW Wheat Futures
Since the USDA’s December 11th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report, CME MARCH 2019 Kansas Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat futures have traded first higher,
and then lower. On the day of the reports, MAR 2019 Kansas HRW wheat futures opened at $5.10 ¼ /bu, and
traded in the range of $5.01 ½ to $5.14 ½ before closing $0.05 ½ lower to $5.02 ½ . Since then, MAR 2019
HRW wheat futures first trended higher, trading as high as $5.24 ½ on December 14th, but then trended down
to a low of $4.97 ½ on December 24th , before closing at $5.02 ½ /bu on that same day (Figure 1).
Kansas Cash Wheat Prices & Basis
On December 21st – the 8th trading day after the USDA reports – Kansas cash wheat price terminal quotes
for ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW in central Kansas ranged from $4.68 ¾ to $4.87 ¾ per bushel – with basis ranging
from $0.34 under to $0.15 under MARCH 2019 KS HRW Wheat futures. Cash wheat prices in eastern Kansas
grain terminals ranged from $4.52 ¾ to $4.87 ¾ /bu with basis ranging from $0.50 under to $0.15 under MAR
2019 futures. These prices are still up 27%‐32% from the range of $3.42 ¼ to $3.83 ¼ /bu in late December
2017 in eastern and central Kansas – with basis at that time being from $0.80 under to $0.39 under nearby
MARCH 2018 futures.
In western Kansas on December 21st bids for ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW wheat at selected grain elevators
ranged from $4.48 to $4.61 /bu, with basis being $0.55 under to $0.42 under MAR 2019 futures. Recent wheat
cash price bids in western Kansas are up 27% to 29% from $3.47 to $3.64 /bu in late December 2017 in this
same area – when local basis varied from $0.85 under to $0.58 under MARCH 2018 futures.
A Hard White Wheat (HWW) grain terminal bid was available in Wichita, Kansas on 12/21/2018 for $4.82
¾ /bu, with a basis of $0.20 /bu under MAR 2019 Kansas HRW wheat futures.
E. U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand – …
July 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Futures
November 21, 2014 – July 22, 2015
Close = $5.62 ¾ on 7/22/2015
SEPT 2015 CME KS Wheat Futures
November 21, 2014 – July 22, 2015
Close = $5.12 ¼ on 7/22/2015
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Similarly, CME JULY 2016 Hard Red Winter wheat futures prices opened at $6.23 ½ on Wednesday, July
10th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time) – and traded in a high‐
low range of $6.33 down to $6.15 during the session, before closing $0.05 ½ lower for the day at $6.19 ¼ /bu
(Figure 1). Since the July 10th USDA WASDE report, CME JULY 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded
sharply lower – from a high of $6.17 ¼ on Monday, July 13th to a low of $5.60 ¾ on Wednesday, July 22nd,
before closing at $5.62 ¾ that same day.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index trended higher from mid‐July 2011 through early July 2014 (Figure
2). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014, the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to
a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. The latest recorded value of the Trade
Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 90.78 on July 10, 2015 – moving sideways‐to‐lower from the July 2014 highs.
Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. wheat market,
because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more
expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars. After they
would have purchased or exchanged their currencies for “high priced” U.S. dollars, they would then in turn use
these U.S. dollars to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars).
Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports, it is a very important one –
working against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World wheat trade.
Since early March the U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index has decline moderately – lending support longer term
prospects for U.S. wheat trade should this down trend continue. …
May 4, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), and a projected amount of 48.7 mmt (1.790 bb) in “current crop”
MY 2014/15 (41.45% of the World total). Projected United States’ soybean exports of 48.7 mmt in “current
crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 8.7% over last year, and up 35.9% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Market
analysts have speculated that Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine
industry production issues or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors within the country.
However, the USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16, and beyond. If this recent upward trend in Chinese
soybean imports and import demand were to falter, it would unquestionably have a substantial negative
impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices at
Farmers Grain Coop in Hutchinson, Kansas (Hutchinson being a major grain market hub in the south central
part of the state) had fallen to as low as $8.44 per bushel on October 26, 2015, before moving above $9.00 on
October 24, 2015. Cash soybean prices at this location have traded in the range of $9.00 (on March 17, 2015)
to $9.95 (on January 6, 2015) since then, with a cash spot price of $9.30 ($0.36 under basis) offered on
midmorning on Friday, May 1st. “Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures were trading at $9.66 per bushel
that day at the time of the $9.30 per bushel bid.
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Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the Hutchinson, Kansas area were in
the range of $8.63 / bu. ($0.78 under basis) to $8.91 ($0.50 under basis). “Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean
futures were trading at $9.41 per bushel that day at the time of these new crop forward contract bids.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that
a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be
harvested in early‐mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in
these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The
possibility of weather‐related soybean production problems in the United States during the summer‐fall of
2015 could impact these trends. However, until such potential production problems actually do occur the
World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable
future.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends
“Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the April 9th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME MARCH 2015 futures
prices opened at $9.71 ¼ /bu, and traded as high as $9.72 and as low as $9.50 ¼ during the session, before
settling at $9.53 ½ – down $0.18 for the day. Since then MAY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within
the range from a low of $9.44 ½ on April 10th, to a low of $9.97 ¼ on April 30th, before closing at $9.68 ½ on
Friday, May 1st.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
June 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
eat producing and exporting areas in year 2015 and beyond.
The June 30th USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports may provide direction to the wheat market – both
in regards 2015 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage and production prospects, as well as the amount of
U.S. wheat feeding and other uses that have occurred during the March‐May 2015 time frame.
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast: For U.S. wheat in the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing
year, the USDA projected that there would be 55.367 million acres (ma) planted, 47.977 ma harvested, 44.2
bu/ac yields, 2.121 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.973 bb total supplies, 925 million bushel (mb) exports,
195 mb feed & residual use, 2.159 bb total use, 814 mb end stocks, with 37.7% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (the
highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/08). The USDA projected U.S. average wheat prices for “new crop” MY
2015/16 in the range of $4.40‐$5.40 /bu. (midpoint =$4.90) – the lowest since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
KSU U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast: Key market factors for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are the
level of 2015 U.S. wheat production, and the degree of recovery in U.S. wheat exports. Kansas State University
projections of “new crop” MY 2015/16 supply‐demand balances and prices are represented in two scenarios:
A) “Medium Yield‐Higher Exports” Scenario: 65% prob. of 55.367 ma planted, 46.557 ma harvested, 43.9
bu/ac yield, 2.044 bb production, 2.895 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 2.194 bb total use, 702 mb ending
stocks, 32.0% S/U, and $5.50 /bu U.S. avg. price. B) “Lower Yield‐Higher Exports” Scenario: 35% prob. of
55.367 ma planted, 46.557 ma harvested, 42.5 bu/ac lower yield, 1.979 bb production, 2.841 bb total supplies,
1.000 bb exports, 2.196 bb total use, 645 mb ending stocks, 29.4% S/U, and $6.10 /bu U.S. avg. price.
USDA World Wheat: Prospects for large World wheat supplies and stocks are causing lower World wheat
market prices. World wheat total supplies of 922.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 916.3 mmt in
MY 2014/15, and from 893.7 mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY
2015/16 of 202.4 mmt (28.1% S/U) are up from 200.4 mmt (28.0% S/U) in MY 2014/15, and from 190.0 mmt
(27.0% S/U) in MY 2013/14. For perspective, these recent supply‐demand figures can be compared to the
historic World wheat ending stocks and stocks‐to‐use minimums of 128.75 mmt and 20.9% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. June 10th USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On June 10th the USDA released two reports, the June 2015 Crop Production report from the National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), and the June 2015 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report from the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).
In the June 10th Crop Production report the USDA released projections of the 2015 U.S. wheat crop.
Projections of 2015 crop size for wheat are based on actual farmer surveys and field trials conducted from May
25th to June 5th by USDA NASS – representing crop conditions and production prospects as of June 1, 2015. The
June 10th WASDE report contained U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price projections for the
2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The “current” 2014/15
marketing year for U.S. wheat ended on May 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. wheat marketing
year began on June 1, 2015, and will last through May 31, 2016.
I‐B. CME KC Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.03 ¾ per bushel for the CME JULY 2015 Kansas hard red winter wheat efutures
contract occurring on December 18, 2014, July futures have trended sharply lower – down to a low of $5.37 on
February 2, 2015. Then after rising to a high of $5.86 on February 17, 2015, JULY 2015 futures fell again to
$5.22 ¾ on March 6th. Another round of an upward price trend to above $5.90 in early April was followed by a
decline to below $4.90 in early May, and then a rise to $5.63 ¾ on May 18th, and $5.64 ½ on May 21st. Then
after a decline to as low as $4.95 ¾ on May 29th, prices rose as high as $5.53 ¾ on June 5th and $5.54 on June
9th – the day prior to the June 10th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) JULY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat efutures prices responded to the
release of the June 10th USDA reports by trading sharply lower for the day. JULY 2015 HRW wheat efutures
prices opened at $5.48 on Wednesday, June 10th ‐ trading as high as $5.53 ½ and as low as $5.29 ¼ per bushel
during the session before closing $0.17 ¾ lower for the day at $5.30 ½ /bu (Figure 1). The USDA reports were
released at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time).
Since the June 10th USDA report, CME JULY 2015 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded sharply lower –
from a high of $5.34 on Thursday, June 11th to a low of $5.05 ¼ on Tuesday, June 16th, before closing at $5.05 ½
on Wednesday, June 17th.
Similarly, CME DEC 2015 Hard Red Winter wheat efutures prices opened at $5.76 ½ on Wednesday, June
10th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time) – and traded in a high‐
low range of $5.82 ¼ down to $5.56 ¼ during the session before closing $0.20 lower for the day at $5.32 ¾ /bu
(Figure 1). Since the June 10th USDA report, CME DEC 2015 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded sharply
lower – from a high of $5.60 ¼ on Thursday, June 11th to a low of $5.32 on Tuesday, June 16th, before closing at
$5.33 ¾ on Wednesday, June 17th.
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Figure 1. JULY 2015 & DECEMBER 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
December 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
oduct supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop”
2015/16 marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. soybeans began on September 1,
2015 and will last through August 31, 2016. For soybean meal and soybean oil, the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year began on October 1, 2015 and will last through September 30, 2016.
I‐B. Commentary on World Soybean Market Trends
The activities of the World soybean market over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood by
recognizing several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import trade
among major countries and regions of the World involved in soybean trade. The primary countries involved in
or “driving” these predominant trends have been China in terms of demand factors, and South American
countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others) and the United States i …
February 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
March 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $6.74 ½
on Friday, Feb. 14
July 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $6.57
on Friday, Feb. 14
Page | 3
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Production
Total U.S. Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production in “Current” MY 2013/14
The USDA left unchanged its projection of U.S. 2013 planted acreage of 56.156 million acres (ma) – up
from both 55.666 ma in 2012, and 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). Projected 2013 harvested
acreage was also unchanged at 45.157 ma – down from both 48.921 ma in 2012 and 45.705 ma in 2011. The
2013 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 80.4%, down from 87.9%
in 2012, 84.0% in 2011 – falling to the lowest level since 76.0% in 2002.
Projected 2013 U.S. average wheat yield of 47.2 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high (Table 1 and
Figure 3), being above to the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, and above 43.7 bu/ac in 2011.
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. wheat production to be 2.130 billion bushels (bb) –down
from a 2.266 bb in 2012, while being up from 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Production in 2013 & Planted Acreage for the 2014 Crop
In its January 10th Winter Wheat Seedings report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage
seeded in the fall of 2013 for harvest in 2014 to be 41.892 million acres (ma) – down from 43.090 ma in 2013,
but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). No projections of 2014 winter wheat
harvested acreage, yields or production have yet been made by the USDA.
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. winter wheat planted acreage at 43.090 million acres
(ma), with projected 2013 winter wheat harvested acreage was also unchanged at 32.402 ma – down from
34.734 ma in 2012, but greater than 32.314 ma in 2011. The 2013 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage
for all U.S. winter wheat is projected to be 79.5% (just below the recent average), down from 84.3% in 2012,
but up from 75.2% in 2011. During the 2000‐2013 time period, U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐
planted acreage averaged 79.8%, with a median (i.e., 50th percentile) of 79.7%, and a a low‐high range of
71.2%‐85.5%.
Projected 2013 U.S. average winter wheat yields of 47.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) are marginally above 47.3
bu/ac in 2012, and above 46.2 bu/ac in 2011. The USDA projected 2013 U.S. winter wheat production to be
1.534 bb – down from a 1.641 bb in 2012, but up from 1.494 bb in 2011.
U.S. Other Spring Wheat
The USDA …
December 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
…
Page | 4
I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
I‐a. December 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World grain sorghum
supply‐demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing
years (MY). The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through
August 31, 2018. Monthly USDA WASDE estimates of U.S. crop and livestock supply‐demand and prices can
be found at the following web address: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its December 2017
Crop Production report. This report can be found at the following web address:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd‐12‐12‐2017.pdf
The next survey‐based report of U.S. corn production results for 2017 will be released in the USDA Annual
Crop Production Summary and Crop Production reports on January 12, 2018. The same U.S. on‐farm grain
sorghum plots which were sampled for the August, September, October, and November USDA NASS Crop
Production reports will revisited for the January 2018 report – with final 2017 post‐harvest production results
reported.
On November 28, 2017 the USDA released its Long Term Agricultural Projections through year 2027.
United States’ grain sorghum supply‐demand and price projections were included, along with corn, wheat,
soybeans, cotton and other major crops. These Long Term Agricultural Projections can be found at the
following website: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/
I‐b. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Average Price Trends
During the eighteen (18) year period from the 1999/2000 through 2016/17 marketing years the typical
season price pattern for grain sorghum in Kansas exhibited pronounced pre‐harvest through harvest lows
during September‐October (Figure 2). Then prices have trended higher from November through April,
becoming level at seasonal highs during the April through June period. Kansas grain sorghum prices then
tended to decline from June into July, and then to decline further into August. The widest variability around
these average seasonal price trends occurred during the June through September period.
So far during the “new crop” 2017/18 marketing year which began on September 1, 2017, U.S. grain
sorghum prices declined from September‐October into November, but have recovered from November lows
into December 2017 in a stronger manner than normal (Figure 2). Contra‐seasonal strength in U.S. grain
sorghum prices in December 2017 is attributed to strong demand for U.S. grain sorghum exports – primary
from China and Japan.
These long‐term average price trends for Kansas are compared to projections of “new crop” MY 2017/18
U.S. grain sorghum average prices. These projections are based on U.S. cash grain sorghum and corn prices for
Page | 5
September and October 2017 from USDA NASS, CME corn futures prices on December 26, 2017, and 2016/17
marketing years monthly average U.S. corn basis levels.
This updated version of Kansas State University projections for the complete “new crop” MY 2017/18
projects U.S. grain sorghum season average prices to average $3.25 per bushel. This is up $0.15 per bushel
from the December 12th USDA WASDE midpoint projection of $3.10, but within the upper end of the USDA
forecast range of $2.75‐$3.45 per bushel (Figure 2). These findings indicated that it is likely SEPT 2018 and DEC
2018 CME corn futures prices are higher than they would be if grain markets were more confident at this time
of “average‐to‐large” 2018 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops. These corn futures contract prices are likely to
decline in Spring‐early Summer 2018 IF significant combined U.S. corn and grain sorghum production problems
ultimately do NOT emerge in the growing season next year.
Figure 2. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Price Index (MY 1999/00 – MY 2016/17) plus “New Crop”
MY 2017/18 Estimates as of December 26, 2017 (Sources: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐
products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
II. U.S. Grain Sorghum Acreage, Yield, Production & Total Supplies
Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand balance sheet for the MY 2008/09 through
“new crop” MY 2017/18 period. Table 1a focuses on “new crop” MY 2017/18 with the December 12th USDA
projection plus alternative possible market scenarios from Kansas State University. An adjusted version of the
USDA’s Long Term Agricultural Projection for U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and prices with forecasts for
“next crop” MY 2018/19 is also included in Table 1a. Grain sorghum planted and harvested planted acreage in
the U.S. for the 2006 – projected 2018 period are shown in Figure 2, with U.S. grain sorghum yields for 2006
through projected 2018 shown in Figure 3. United States’ grain sorghum production and total supplies for the
2005/06 through projected “next crop” 2018/19 marketing years are shown in Figure 4.
95 …