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December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
owever, the USDA maintains its optimism for “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. corn exports
because of a) low U.S. corn prices, b) expectations of significantly tighter foreign stocks and percent (%)
stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing South American corn exports in early 2018.
Early forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 95 million metric tons (mmt) in this marketing
year with harvests lasting from February through May. Early forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production
to be 42 mmt in this marketing year with harvests lasting from March through May. However, dry conditions
may limit 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil – and subsequently support U.S. corn exports.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In the December 12th Crop Production reports, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) projected
yields up to a record high of 175.4 bu/ac (vs the previous record of 174.6 in 2016), and b) 2017 U.S. corn
production up to 14.578 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016. The also USDA left unchanged
its forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 16.922 bb – down marginally (20 mb) from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.485 bb – raised 50 mb from November on higher ethanol use, but still
down 162 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.437 bb (16.8% S/U) – up from
2.295 bb (15.7% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu
(range of $2.85‐$3.55). This is down $0.16 /bu from $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is
given an 80% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. These projections are to show how varying corn export outcomes could affect the USDA’s projection
in the December 9, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “Higher Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “2.250 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 2.250 bb exports, 14.785 bb total use, 2.099 bb ending stocks, 14.20% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
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B ‐ KSU “Lower Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “1.800 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 1.800 bb exports, 14.360 bb total use, 2.524 bb ending stocks, 17.58% S/U, & $3.20 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
6. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2018/19
In the November 28th Long Term Baseline projections, the USDA forecast for “next crop” MY 2018/19 that
2018 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres would equal 91.0 million acres (ma) and 83.7 ma, respectively,
both up from 90.429 ma planted and 83.119 ma harvested in 2017. Corn yields in 2018 are forecast at 173.5
bu/ac, down from the record high of 175.4 bu/ac in 2017. U.S. corn production is 2018 is projected to be
14.520 bb – down from 14.578 bb now projected for 2017.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 17.007 bb – adjusted for changes in the
December WASDE report in MY 2017/18 ending stocks. Total use is forecast at 14.450 bb – down 35 mb from
this current marketing year. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.557 bb (17.7% S/U) – up from 2.437 bb
(16.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu – up
from $3.20 /bu in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,044.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
2.9% from the record of 1,074.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.3% from 973.5 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,272.1 mmt are down marginally from the record high 1,290.5 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 151.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 7.6% from the record
high of 164.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 26.7% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 204.1 mmt (19.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.3
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected
Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn ending stocks of 142.2 mmt (16.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from
169.0 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 170.8 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 124.5 mmt
(15.0% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.6 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 104.1 mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s
direct influence are projected to be approximately 21% lower (i.e., 15.0% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China”
versus 19.1% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 44.3% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.0%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These
actions may increase Chinese import demand for both U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
lender, and insurance industry meetings. Art's wife, Nancy, holds … Potash (K)• Interest• Other costs: includes seed, lubrication, herbicides, machinery
• … Expected County Yield (ECY) is used to calculate expected revenue, some input quantities, and other elements of coverage prior to sign‐up
• …
June 19, 2023
Ag Law Issues
and wetlands adjacent to other jurisdictional waters. In … impoundments or tributaries that meet either
the relatively permanent … “all rivers, lakes, and other waters that flow across …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,815 FARM UNITS plus 463 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,278 … …............................................................................. 43-59
Can My Farm Meet the Test? …...................................................................................................................................60
Analysis …
October 1, 2024
2024 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
Special Provision Statement Change: Silage Sorghum
Insured Crop: In addition to section 5 of the Silage Sorghum Endorsement, for the non‐irrigated practice only, you must submit acceptable records of acreage and harvested silage tonnage by the production reporting date that are used in setting your Actual Production History approved yield. The records must show that you planted and harvested silage sorghum in at least two of the last four crop years and that such silage tonnage was either sold or fed. Insured producers who have at least two years of acceptable records of producing corn silage that was sold or fed may use such records or a combination of corn silage and silage sorghum records to meet this qualification requirement. You must provide supporting evidence/verifiable records of the fed or sold silage production in accordance with the Crop Insurance Handbook procedures.
Why …
August 2, 2016
Breakout session presentations
Pilon Group Ethanol Plant
16,000 hectares50% owned, 50% contracted from other farmers
Ethanol Plant
1.6 mill ton of cane produces 90,000 ton sugar and 70,000 ton ethanol
Also produces this
And this
Bagasse
Fibrous bi‐product used to fuel the plantExcess energy is sold to utility companiesPlant is entirely self‐sufficient
Planting
Plant Jan‐MayGrowing season is 18 monthsPerennial – …
June 7, 2017
KFMA Research
in some years, but not in other years.
In years when they … in some years, but not in other years. Those
KFMA farmers … Required to Hit $40,000 Limit in Other States. Figure 1 shows instructions …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
2014 CME eSoybeans
12/20/2013 – 5/19/2014
Close: $12.36 ¾ on May 19th
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May 13th to a high of $12.44 ½ on May 19th, before closing at $12.38 ¾ on that same day. Prior to the May 9th
report, NOV 2014 soybean futures had trend sharply higher from a low of $10.88 ¼ on January 31st to a high of
$12.49 ¼ on April 28th prior to moving generally lower to the May 16th close of $12.21 ¼.
I‐C. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand
U.S. Soybean Acreage, Yield & Production
Following from the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected
that 2014 U.S. soybean total planted acreage would be a record high 81.493 million acres (ma), up from 76.533
ma in 2013, 77.198 ma in 2012, and 75.046 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 2). In addition, the USDA projected
2014 U.S. soybean harvested acreage to be 80.5 ma, up from 75.869 ma in 2013, and 76.164 ma in 2012, but
up from 73.776 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. soybeans is projected to be
98.7%, down from 99.1% in 2013, but comparable to 98.7% in 2012 and 98.3% in 2011. The U.S. average and
median (i.e., the 50th percentile or “middle”) soybean percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage over the years of
2004‐2013 have both been 98.7% , with a high of 99.1% in 2007 and 2013, and a low of 98.3% in 2011. Using
the 2004‐2013 average percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage proportion of 98.7% would lead to a projection
of U.S. 2014 harvested acres of 80.469 ma – marginally less (down 31,000 acres) than the USDA’s projection of
80.5 ma, and within the rounding error of 100,000 acres for the forecast.
The projected 2014 U.S. average soybean yield of 45.2 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, up
from 43.3 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 yield of 39.8 bu/ac., and the historic high of 44.0 bu/ac in
2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014 U.S.
soybean production to be a record high 3.635 billion bushels (bb) – which is up from 3.289 bb in 2013, 3.034
bb in 2012, 3.094 bb in 2011, 3.329 in 2010, and 3.359 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Soybean Total Supplies
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. soybeans for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 3.780 bb –
resulting from beginning stocks of 130 mb, projected 2014 production of 3.635 bb, and projected imports of 15
mb (Table 1). Total supplies of 3.780 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, comparable to
3.655 bb in MY 2006/07 (2nd highest), 3.261 bb in MY 2007/08, 3.185 bb in MY 2008/09, 3.512 bb in MY
2009/10 (4th highest), 3.495 bb in MY 2010/11 (5th highest), 3.325 bb in MY 2011/12, 3.239 bb in MY 2012/13,
and 3.519 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14 (3rd highest). Beginning stocks of 130 mb in “new crop” MY
2014/15 are down from 141 mb in “current year” MY 2013/14, 169 mb in MY 2012/13, and 215 in MY
2011/12, and is comparable to the low of 112 mb occurring in MY 2004/05, and to what is at least a 40 year
low of 103 mb in MY 1977/78.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
Domestic Crush: Projected U.S. soybean domestic crushings of 1.715 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up
from 1.695 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 (which as lowered 10 mb from April), 1.689 bb in MY 2012/13, and
from 1.703 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). The record high amount 1.808 bb of U.S. soybean
domestic crushings occurred in MY 2006/07, followed closely time and quantity‐wise with 1.803 bb in MY
2007/08.
Page | 4
U.S. Soybean Exports: Projected U.S. soybean exports of 1.625 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a
record high, up from the current forecast high of 1.600 in “current” MY 2013/14 (which was raised 20 mb from
April) (Table 1 and Figure 4). Beginning in MY 2006/07, U.S. soybean exports were 1.116 bb, followed by 1.159
bb in MY 2007/08, 1.279 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.499 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd highest on record), 1.501 bb in MY
2010/11 (2nd highest on record), 1.365 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.320 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, 1.600 bb in
“current” MY 2013/14 (the historic record high if actually attained), and now the projected record high of
1.625 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15.
Regarding the current pace of U.S. soybean export shipments and sales, as of May 8th, with 40 of 52 weeks
(76.9%) of “current” MY 2013/14 complete, 1.558 bb of U.S. soybeans had been shipped for export – equal to
97.4% of the USDA’s updated projection of 1.600 bb for “current” MY 2013/14. United States’ export
shipments will need to average only 3.5 mb per week through the remainder of the “current” 2013/14
marketing year to attain the USDA’s May WASDE projection of 1.600 bb. This compares to U.S. soybean export
shipments of 10.0 mb and 9.9 mb which occurred during the weeks ending May 1st and 8th, respectively. As a
result, these recent U.S. soybean export shipments were “ahead of pace” to meet the USDA marketing year …
March 21, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… If this amount of additional U.S. soybean shipments were to actually occur in the MY 2013/14
then there would be an additional 102 mb in U.S. soybean usage (i.e., 1.632 – 1.530 bb = 102 mb).
As a consequence – with all other U.S. soybean supply‐dema … …