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March 21, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… If this amount of additional U.S. soybean shipments were to actually occur in the MY 2013/14
then there would be an additional 102 mb in U.S. soybean usage (i.e., 1.632 – 1.530 bb = 102 mb).
As a consequence – with all other U.S. soybean supply‐dema … …
February 13, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
In the February 8, 2019 USDA Annual 2018 Crop Production Summary report the USDA lowered its’
projection of 2018 U.S. corn production by 206 million bushels (mb) down to 14.420 bb due to late
harvest and other production limiting influe … S. corn crop size occurred by itself with no other supply‐demand adjustments, it would be at least a
moderately positive factor for U.S. corn market prices.
o …
February 4, 2016
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
pasture lease for activities other than livestock. Moving
from … percentage of leases for purposes other than
livestock increased … had leased for activities other …
March 13, 2020
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
Bluestem Pasture Survey. All
other results are based solely … pasture leases for activities
other than livestock (Table 3 … percentage of leases for purposes other than livestock increased …
July 27, 2023
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
Bluestem Pasture Survey. All
other results are based solely … Kansas pasture.
2
the other hand, was in relatively better … pasture leases for activities other than livestock (Table 2 …
October 4, 2024
Methods and Supporting Information
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals.
“Pork” … roast,
ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
March 7, 2025
Methods and Supporting Information
roast, beef
sandwiches and other beef-based meals. “Pork” … pork roast, ground pork, and other pork-based meals.
“Chicken” … chicken, chicken sandwiches and other chicken-based meals.
“Fish/Seafood” …
December 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Kazakhstan wheat exports are forecast to be 8.50 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19, down from 9.00 mmt
in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but up from 7.40 mmt in MY 2016/17.
World total usage of wheat is projected to be a record high of 745.25 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19 – up
marginally from 744.16 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from 739.86 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13).
World wheat ending stocks are projected to be 268.10 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19 – the 2nd highest in
history following the record high of 279.94 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and 261.04 mmt in MY 2016/17
(Figure 13). Since MY 2007/08, World wheat ending stocks have been growing an average of 12.7 mmt per
marketing year (by 9.9% annually) from the 10‐year low of 179.02 mmt in MY 2012/13 – out‐pacing the annual
growth in total use of 11.9 mmt per year (+1.9% annually) (Figures 14a‐b).
The distorting effect perpetually large Chinese wheat ending stocks on World wheat ending stocks figures
of will be examined in the following section.
World wheat percent ending stocks‐to‐use (% S/U) are forecast to be 35.97% in “current” MY 2018/19 ‐
the 2nd highest on record (Figures 14a‐b). The record high is 37.62% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, up from
35.28% on MY 2016/17 (3rd highest on record). World wheat % stocks‐to‐use have consistently increased each
year from the recent low of 26.02% in MY 2012/13 to the present – increasing to 28.5% in MY 2013/14; 31.7%
in MY 2014/15; 34.2% in MY 2015/16, 35.3% in MY 2016/17; and to the record high of 37.6% S/U in “old crop”
MY 2017/18; before a projected moderate decline to 36.0% in “current” MY 2018/19.
C. “World‐Less‐China” Wheat Supply‐Demand – “11‐Year LOW Ending Stocks”
The broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market continues to
“obscure” or “mask” the effect of large but somewhat isolated Chinese wheat stocks on actually available
World wheat supplies and stocks.
From a “World‐Less‐China” perspective, forecast ending stocks‐to‐use of 20.01% for “current” MY 2018/19
would be the lowest level in 11 years – since 17.54% S/U in MY 2007/08 (Figures 15a‐b). “World‐Less‐China”
wheat ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to be down sharply from 23.86% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from
the range of 22.05% to 27.48% during the MY 2008/09 – MY 2017/18 period.
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This “World‐Less‐China” perspective compares to the aggregated “World” perspective, in which forecast
World wheat ending stocks‐to‐use of 35.97% for “current” MY 2018/19 would be the 2nd highest level in 12
years – down only from the high of 37.62% S/U in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figures 14a‐b).
IF in coming months this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available
global supplies of purchasable wheat for buyers to gain possession of to meet their domestic needs, it could
yet have a significant positive impact on U.S. and World wheat market prices during the January‐May period of
“current” MY 2018/19. However, unless there is such a noticeable “tightening” in accessible, available wheat
supplies for buyers in the broader, with a predominant move AWAY FROM a large aggregate global supplies
perspective over TO tight available “World‐Less‐China” supplies situation, the market’s attention on this factor
may not positively affect the pro‐active purchasing of World wheat market participants. The information in
the following section may be an impetus for that change.
D. Wheat Futures & Kansas Cash Markets Since the December 11th
CME Kansas HRW Wheat Futures
Since the USDA’s December 11th Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report, CME MARCH 2019 Kansas Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat futures have traded first higher,
and then lower. On the day of the reports, MAR 2019 Kansas HRW wheat futures opened at $5.10 ¼ /bu, and
traded in the range of $5.01 ½ to $5.14 ½ before closing $0.05 ½ lower to $5.02 ½ . Since then, MAR 2019
HRW wheat futures first trended higher, trading as high as $5.24 ½ on December 14th, but then trended down
to a low of $4.97 ½ on December 24th , before closing at $5.02 ½ /bu on that same day (Figure 1).
Kansas Cash Wheat Prices & Basis
On December 21st – the 8th trading day after the USDA reports – Kansas cash wheat price terminal quotes
for ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW in central Kansas ranged from $4.68 ¾ to $4.87 ¾ per bushel – with basis ranging
from $0.34 under to $0.15 under MARCH 2019 KS HRW Wheat futures. Cash wheat prices in eastern Kansas
grain terminals ranged from $4.52 ¾ to $4.87 ¾ /bu with basis ranging from $0.50 under to $0.15 under MAR
2019 futures. These prices are still up 27%‐32% from the range of $3.42 ¼ to $3.83 ¼ /bu in late December
2017 in eastern and central Kansas – with basis at that time being from $0.80 under to $0.39 under nearby
MARCH 2018 futures.
In western Kansas on December 21st bids for ordinary U.S. no. 1 HRW wheat at selected grain elevators
ranged from $4.48 to $4.61 /bu, with basis being $0.55 under to $0.42 under MAR 2019 futures. Recent wheat
cash price bids in western Kansas are up 27% to 29% from $3.47 to $3.64 /bu in late December 2017 in this
same area – when local basis varied from $0.85 under to $0.58 under MARCH 2018 futures.
A Hard White Wheat (HWW) grain terminal bid was available in Wichita, Kansas on 12/21/2018 for $4.82
¾ /bu, with a basis of $0.20 /bu under MAR 2019 Kansas HRW wheat futures.
E. U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand – …
July 23, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Futures
November 21, 2014 – July 22, 2015
Close = $5.62 ¾ on 7/22/2015
SEPT 2015 CME KS Wheat Futures
November 21, 2014 – July 22, 2015
Close = $5.12 ¼ on 7/22/2015
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Similarly, CME JULY 2016 Hard Red Winter wheat futures prices opened at $6.23 ½ on Wednesday, July
10th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time) – and traded in a high‐
low range of $6.33 down to $6.15 during the session, before closing $0.05 ½ lower for the day at $6.19 ¼ /bu
(Figure 1). Since the July 10th USDA WASDE report, CME JULY 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded
sharply lower – from a high of $6.17 ¼ on Monday, July 13th to a low of $5.60 ¾ on Wednesday, July 22nd,
before closing at $5.62 ¾ that same day.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index trended higher from mid‐July 2011 through early July 2014 (Figure
2). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014, the calculated U.S. trade weighted dollar index trended up to
a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. The latest recorded value of the Trade
Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 90.78 on July 10, 2015 – moving sideways‐to‐lower from the July 2014 highs.
Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is significant to the U.S. wheat market,
because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more
expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars. After they
would have purchased or exchanged their currencies for “high priced” U.S. dollars, they would then in turn use
these U.S. dollars to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars).
Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports, it is a very important one –
working against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World wheat trade.
Since early March the U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index has decline moderately – lending support longer term
prospects for U.S. wheat trade should this down trend continue. …
May 4, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), and a projected amount of 48.7 mmt (1.790 bb) in “current crop”
MY 2014/15 (41.45% of the World total). Projected United States’ soybean exports of 48.7 mmt in “current
crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 8.7% over last year, and up 35.9% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Market
analysts have speculated that Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine
industry production issues or other broad, systematic economic and/or financial factors within the country.
However, the USDA has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16, and beyond. If this recent upward trend in Chinese
soybean imports and import demand were to falter, it would unquestionably have a substantial negative
impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices at
Farmers Grain Coop in Hutchinson, Kansas (Hutchinson being a major grain market hub in the south central
part of the state) had fallen to as low as $8.44 per bushel on October 26, 2015, before moving above $9.00 on
October 24, 2015. Cash soybean prices at this location have traded in the range of $9.00 (on March 17, 2015)
to $9.95 (on January 6, 2015) since then, with a cash spot price of $9.30 ($0.36 under basis) offered on
midmorning on Friday, May 1st. “Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures were trading at $9.66 per bushel
that day at the time of the $9.30 per bushel bid.
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Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the Hutchinson, Kansas area were in
the range of $8.63 / bu. ($0.78 under basis) to $8.91 ($0.50 under basis). “Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean
futures were trading at $9.41 per bushel that day at the time of these new crop forward contract bids.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “next crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that
a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be
harvested in early‐mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in
these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The
possibility of weather‐related soybean production problems in the United States during the summer‐fall of
2015 could impact these trends. However, until such potential production problems actually do occur the
World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable
future.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends
“Current crop” MAY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the April 9th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME MARCH 2015 futures
prices opened at $9.71 ¼ /bu, and traded as high as $9.72 and as low as $9.50 ¼ during the session, before
settling at $9.53 ½ – down $0.18 for the day. Since then MAY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within
the range from a low of $9.44 ½ on April 10th, to a low of $9.97 ¼ on April 30th, before closing at $9.68 ½ on
Friday, May 1st.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …