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February 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
March 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $6.74 ½
on Friday, Feb. 14
July 2014
CBOT eKC‐Wheat
Close = $6.57
on Friday, Feb. 14
Page | 3
I‐D. U.S. Wheat Production
Total U.S. Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production in “Current” MY 2013/14
The USDA left unchanged its projection of U.S. 2013 planted acreage of 56.156 million acres (ma) – up
from both 55.666 ma in 2012, and 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). Projected 2013 harvested
acreage was also unchanged at 45.157 ma – down from both 48.921 ma in 2012 and 45.705 ma in 2011. The
2013 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 80.4%, down from 87.9%
in 2012, 84.0% in 2011 – falling to the lowest level since 76.0% in 2002.
Projected 2013 U.S. average wheat yield of 47.2 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high (Table 1 and
Figure 3), being above to the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, and above 43.7 bu/ac in 2011.
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. wheat production to be 2.130 billion bushels (bb) –down
from a 2.266 bb in 2012, while being up from 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Production in 2013 & Planted Acreage for the 2014 Crop
In its January 10th Winter Wheat Seedings report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage
seeded in the fall of 2013 for harvest in 2014 to be 41.892 million acres (ma) – down from 43.090 ma in 2013,
but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). No projections of 2014 winter wheat
harvested acreage, yields or production have yet been made by the USDA.
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. winter wheat planted acreage at 43.090 million acres
(ma), with projected 2013 winter wheat harvested acreage was also unchanged at 32.402 ma – down from
34.734 ma in 2012, but greater than 32.314 ma in 2011. The 2013 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage
for all U.S. winter wheat is projected to be 79.5% (just below the recent average), down from 84.3% in 2012,
but up from 75.2% in 2011. During the 2000‐2013 time period, U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐
planted acreage averaged 79.8%, with a median (i.e., 50th percentile) of 79.7%, and a a low‐high range of
71.2%‐85.5%.
Projected 2013 U.S. average winter wheat yields of 47.4 bushels per acre (bu/ac) are marginally above 47.3
bu/ac in 2012, and above 46.2 bu/ac in 2011. The USDA projected 2013 U.S. winter wheat production to be
1.534 bb – down from a 1.641 bb in 2012, but up from 1.494 bb in 2011.
U.S. Other Spring Wheat
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. other spring wheat planted acreage to 11.596 million
acres (ma) – down from both 12.289 ma in 2012, and 12.394 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). Projected 2013 harvested
acreage was left unchanged at 11.334 ma – down from 12.055 ma in 2012 and 12.079 ma in 2011. The 2013
proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. spring wheat is projected to be 97.7%, down from
98.1% in 2012, and up slightly from 97.5% in 2011.
Projected 2013 U.S. average spring wheat yield of 47.1 bu/ac compares to 45.0 bu/ac in 2012 and 37.7
bu/ac in 2011. The USDA projected 2013 U.S. other spring wheat production to be 533.5 million bushels (mb)
– down from a 542.0 mb in 2012, but up from 455.2 mb in 2011.
U.S. Durum Wheat
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. durum wheat planted acreage to 1.470 million acres
(ma) – down from 2.153 ma in 2012, but up from 1.369 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). Projected 2013 harvested
acreage was estimated at 1.421 ma – down from 2.132 ma in 2012, while being up from 1.312 ma in 2011. The
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2013 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. durum wheat is projected to be 96.7%, down
from 99.0% in 2012, but up from 95.8% in 2011.
Projected 2013 U.S. average durum wheat yield of 43.6 bu/ac compares to 38.8 bu/ac in 2012 and 38.5
bu/ac in 2011. The USDA projected 2013 U.S. durum wheat production to be 61.9 million bushels (mb) – down
from 82.8 mb in 2012, but up from 50.5 mb in 2011.
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Total Supplies
Total supplies of U.S. wheat for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be 3.018 bb – down from 3.131 bb
in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, but up from 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12. Total supplies of 3.018 bb resulted from
beginning stocks of 718 mb, projected 2013 production of 2.130 bb, and projected imports of 170 mb (Table
1).
Total supplies of 3.018 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 are larger than the average of the previous seven (7)
marketing years of 2.919 bb, and compares to 2.501 bb in MY 2006/07, 2.620 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.932 bb in
MY 2008/09, 2.993 bb in MY 2009/10, 3.279 bb in MY 2010/11, 2.974 bb in MY 2011/12, and 3.131 bb in MY
2012/13. Beginning stocks of 718 mb are the lowest since 657 mb in MY 2009/10, and illustrate the steadily
increasing tightness of wheat supplies that has occurred over the last three marketing years (since beginning
stocks of 976 mb in MY 2010/11).
Imports of 170 mb are a record high, with the next highest amounts since MY 1973/74 being a) 127 mb in
MY 2008/09, b) 123 mb in MY 2012/13, c) 122 mb in MY 2006/07, and 119 mb in MY 2009/10. Record large
2013 Canadian wheat production of 37.5 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1,377.5 million bushels in 60 lb/bu
units) has an impact on U.S. wheat imports. The next largest Canadian wheat crops since 1960 that were over
30.0 mmt were in 1990 (32.098 mmt), 1991 (31.946 mmt), and 1986 (31.359 mmt).
I‐F. U.S. Wheat Total Use & Use by Category
Food Use: Projected U.S. wheat food use of 960 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up 10 mb from January,
and up from both 945 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 941 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Seed Use: Forecast seed use of 74 mb in “current” MY 2013/14 is up from 73 mb in “last year’s” MY
2012/13, and down from 76 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
Exports: Projected U.S. wheat exports of 1.175 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 are up 50 mb from January,
and up 75 mb from the December 2013 WASDE. This amount of exports is also up from both 1.007 bb in “last
year’s” MY 2012/13, and 1.051 bb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4).
On February 6th cumulative U.S. wheat export shipments for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year totaled
792.6 mb, 67.5% of projected “current” MY 2013/14 exports of 1.175 bb with 76.9% (40 of 52 weeks) of the
marketing year completed. United States’ export shipments will need to average 31.9 mb per week to attain
the USDA’s February WASDE projection of 1.175 bb in the current marketing year. Wheat export shipments of
13.5 mb and 14.8 mb occurred during the weeks ending January 30th and February 6th, respectively, were
“behind pace” to meet the USDA marketing year U.S. forecast of 1.175 bb in the “current” 2013/14 marketing
year. (Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Weekly Export Sales report ‐
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐sales/esrd1.html).
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However, accounting for additional unshipped forward export sales of 210.4 mb in U.S. wheat that had not
yet been shipped on February 6th, total U.S. wheat shipped plus outstanding shipments added up to 1,002.5
mb (i.e., 792.6 mb shipped plus 210.4 mb forward sales with rounding) for “current” MY 2013/14. This
amounts to 85.3% of the USDA’s projection of 1.175 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 with 76.9% of the marketing
year having already occurred (i.e., 40 of 52 weeks).
Feed & Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 250 mb for “current” MY 2013/14 is down 60
mb from December‐January, and down from the recent high of 388 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while
being up from 162 mb in MY 2011/12 (Table 1 and Figure 4). This decline in projected U.S. wheat feeding in
“current” MY 2013/14 is consistent with the sizable negative feed and residual adjustment in September‐
November 2013 U.S. wheat disappearance (i.e., down 163 mb). Domestic U.S. wheat feeding has declined
largely due to sizable 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops – leading to more abundant U.S. feedgrain
supplies at lower market prices than during “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and subsequently to lower cross‐market
demand for U.S. wheat in livestock feed rations – in either domestic or foreign markets.
Total U.S. Wheat Use: Summing the categories together, total use of U.S. wheat for “current” MY 2013/14
is projected to be 2.399 bb – down 34 mb from December (Table 1 and Figure 4). U.S. total use of 2.399 bb in
“current” MY 2013/14 would be the 2nd largest amount of U.S. wheat usage over the last seven (7) years,
compared to 2.314 bb in MY 2007/08, 2.275 bb in MY 2008/09, 2.018 bb in MY 2009/10, 2.417 bb in MY
2010/11, 2.231 bb in MY 2011/12, and the largest amount during the 8 year period – 2.414 bb in “last year’s”
MY 2012/13.
I‐G. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks, % Stocks‐to‐Use, and Prices
United States’ wheat ending stocks for the “current” 2013/14 marketing year are projected to be 558 mb –
down 50 mb from January and down 17 mb from December 2013 (Table 1 and Figure 4). Current marketing
year ending stocks of 558 mb are larger than 306 mb in MY 2007/08 – the historic “tight stocks” marketing
year – but are less than 657 mb in MY 2008/09, 976 mb in MY 2009/10, 862 in MY 2010/11, 743 mb in MY
2011/12, and 718 mb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13. In MY 2007/08 U.S. wheat supply‐demand balances were at
their lowest levels in 66 years, i.e., since just after World War II.
Percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of 22.7% for the U.S. in “current” MY 2013/14 are down from earlier
projections of 25.3% S/U in the January 2014 WASDE and 23.6% S/U in December 2014 (Table 1 and Figures 5‐
6). If this projection holds true, it would be the smallest level of U.S. wheat % ending stocks‐to‐use since 13.2%
in MY 2007/08. Over the last seven (7) years, U.S. wheat % ending stocks‐to‐use have changed from 13.2% in
MY 2007/08, to 28.9% in MY 2008/09, 48.4% in MY 2009/10, 35.7% in MY 2010/11, 33.3% in MY 2011/12, and
29.7% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and now the February 2014 projection of 22.7% for the “current” 2013/14
marketing year.
U.S. average wheat prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be in the range of $6.65‐$6.90 /bu
(midpoint = $6.80), narrower by $0.05 /bu on each end of the forecast range than the January WASDE
projection, but down marginally from the December 2013 WASDE forecast range and midpoint of $6.65‐$7.15
/bu and $6.90, respectively. This projection of $6.65‐$6.95 /bu for “current” MY 2013/14 is down from the
record high of $7.77 / bu in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 2 and Figures 5‐6). Since and including the record
tight U.S. and World wheat ending stocks marketing year of 2007/08, U.S. wheat prices have varied in the
following manner over time: $6.48 per bushel in MY 2007/08, $6.78 in MY 2008/09, $4.87 in MY 2009/10,
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$5.70 in MY 2010/11, $7.24 in MY 2011/12, $7.77 in MY 2012/13, and now the range and midpoint projection
of $6.65‐$6.95 ($6.80) /bu in the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.
An indicator of inflation that has occurred in U.S. wheat prices is found by comparing the situation in the
historic “tight stocks” year of MY 2007/08 and “current” MY 2013/14. In MY 2007/08, U.S. wheat % ending
stocks‐to‐use were a record low 13.2% with an average U.S. wheat price of $6.48 per bushel – at that time a
record high. In comparison, in “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. wheat % ending stocks‐to‐use are projected to be
higher at 22.7%, but with U.S. wheat prices being at least moderately higher as well in the range of $6.65‐6.95
per bushel (midpoint = $6.80 /bu).
I‐H. Comments on Wheat Market Prospects for the Rest of the “Current” 2013/14 Marketing Year
Strong U.S. wheat exports on the one hand and strong demand for wheat feeding through June‐November
had provided support for U.S. wheat prices in the first half (June through November) of the “current” 2013/14
marketing year. However, with large 2013 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops and markedly lower U.S.
feedgrain prices at fall harvest, wheat prices have lost the degree of cross feedgrain market arbitrage support
that they had over the 2010/11 and 2012/13 marketing years.
In addition, exports from nearly all of the U.S.’ major World wheat trade competitors are projected to be
higher in “current” MY 2013/14 than a year ago. This list of export competitors with improved sales prospects
includes Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Since early November 2013
United States’ wheat export shipments have been occurring at a slower pace than in June‐October 2013,
reflecting increased competitive exportable Foreign wheat supplies and weakening U.S. wheat export
prospects for now through late May 2014 – the end of the “current” 2013/14 U.S. wheat marketing year.
However, sales for future U.S. wheat export shipments through the end of “current” MY 2013/14 have been
occurring at a higher pace – causing the USDA to raise its export projection by 50 mb up to 1.175 bb in this
marketing year. However, large amounts of exportable supplies by foreign wheat export competitors still
remain as a potential challenge for U.S. wheat exports in coming months.
In summary, with a) moderately lower supplies of U.S. wheat in the “current” MY 2013/14 marketing year,
b) growing quantities of competitive, exportable foreign wheat supplies likely to be available in coming
months, c) the likelihood of a “weaker‐to‐moderating” pace of U.S. wheat exports through the fall‐winter, and
d) more abundant U.S. corn and grain sorghum supplies through the fall of 2013 and a large amount unsold
feedgrain supplies “hanging over the market” in early 2014, “last year’s” U.S. wheat price prospects seem on
balance to be “moderate” – with if anything a more negative outlook than positive based on supply/demand
prospects for the current marketing year todate. However, if “new crop” 2014 U.S. winter wheat production
prospects turn poor in March‐April as the crop breaks dormancy in the spring period – possibly due to dry
conditions, damage from cold temperatures, widespread disease issues, a late killing frost, etc. – U.S. wheat
market prices would find the impetus to respond by moving sharply higher.
I‐I. KSU U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
These early 2014 projections by Kansas State University of U.S. wheat production and U.S. wheat supply‐
demand balances and prices for the “coming” or “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year reveal the importance of
planted and harvested acreage, yields, beginning stocks, export and feed use prospects will have on wheat
markets in the coming year. At this early date in 2014, some information is already available from the USDA
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about U.S. winter wheat planted acreage for the coming year, and in regards to the USDA’s long term baseline
supply‐demand and price projections. There are still an array of possible U.S. wheat production, supply‐
demand balance, and price outcomes for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year.
The initial formal USDA projection of 2014 U.S. wheat production along with supply‐demand and price
prospects will be given at the 2014 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 20‐21, 2014 in Arlington,
Virginia (www.usda.gov/oce/forum). Just as for corn and soybeans, in recent years there has been a tendency
for early season projections of U.S. wheat production by the USDA, private industry analysts, and University
Extension Grain Marketing Specialists to be for “full production”, i.e., assuming trend line U.S. wheat yields or
better and generally large‐sized crops. That said, with the annual availability of January USDA Winter Wheat
Seedings report information, the USDA has more and higher quality information about winter wheat acreage
and production prospects than it has in January‐early February for other major U.S. field crops.
On Thursday, February 13th the USDA released its Agricultural Projections to 2023 available at the
following website: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/oce‐usda‐agricultural‐projections/oce141.aspx.
Based largely on relative grain prices and USDA WASDE projections in November 2013, the forecast of U.S.
wheat supply/demand and prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 contained in the USDA Agricultural Projections
for 2023 report may face a number adjustments before they are released in the February 20‐21, 2014 USDA
Outlook Forum.
An adjusted version of the “next crop” MY 2014/15 projected from the Agricultural Baseline is provided in
Table 1, with lower beginning stocks of 558 mb to match the February 2014 WASDE projection of ending
stocks projection for “current” MY 2013/14. All other changes in total supplies, ending stocks, and percent
ending stocks‐to‐use follow from the change in beginning stocks. With the reduction in projected percent
ending stocks‐to‐use (i.e., down to 27.8% versus 28.1% in the USDA baseline projection), the USDA’s price
projection was left unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. The USDA has already stated publically since the release of
these Agricultural Projections to 2013 that changes in projected 2014 corn acreage may occur in the upcoming
February 20‐21, 2014 USDA Outlook Forum forecasts – which means that it is possible that changes could also
occur in 2014 wheat acreage projections as well. But at this time, it seems likely that the long term trendline
yield projection of a 2014 U.S. wheat yield of 45.8 bu/ac may be retained.
KSU Probability‐Based Projections U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Price Scenarios for MY 2014/15
KSU projections of 2014 U.S. wheat planted and harvested acreage for alternative production scenarios are
found in Table 1 and Figure 5. Projections of U.S. wheat planted acres are combining information from the
recent USDA Winter Wheat Seedings report along with the same U.S. planted acreage for other spring wheat
and durum wheat as in 2013. Projections of 2014 U.S. wheat yields are found in Table 1 and Figure 3.
Probability‐weighted KSU forecasts of U.S. wheat average prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 that are based on
projections of U.S. wheat % ending stocks‐to‐use are provided Table 1 and Figures 5‐6.
Three probability‐weighted KSU U.S. wheat supply‐demand and price scenarios for “next crop” MY
2014/15 are shown below.
1 …
December 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
016 harvest and immediate post‐harvest period.
Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. feedgrain markets in 2017 include: 1) the pace and
timing of U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 grain sorghum and corn crops – much of which had been placed in
storage after the 2016 fall harvest and likely will be held for sale through the winter into at least early spring
2017, 2) anticipation of continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. feedgrains for domestic U.S. ethanol
production and livestock feeding, 3) at least moderate strength in U.S. grain sorghum exports – driven partly
by a poor Brazilian feedgrain harvest and lack of exportable supplies in earlier in 2016, as well as other World
coarse grain market factors, and 4) the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or
financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.
For example, U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2017 could lead to increases
in U.S. interest rates and the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, which could in turn
have a negative impact on U.S. grain sorghum exports. Also, World geo‐political events could provide
Page | 2
unanticipated “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets. The impact on the direction of U.S. and
World grain sorghum and corn markets from these potential disruptions is difficult to anticipate or predict.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Current” MY 2016/17: The USDA has projected of 2016 U.S. sorghum
plantings of 6.761 ma, harvested acres of 6.045 ma, record high yields of 76.5 bu/ac (vs 76.0 bu/ac in 2015 and
67.6 bu/ac in 2014), resulting in a 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 462 mb – down from
597 mb in 2015, but above 433 mb in 2014, and 392 mb in 2013.
With forecast “current” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 500 mb, total use of 465 mb, and projected ending stocks
of 35 mb (7.48% S/U), U.S. grain sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.80‐$3.30
(midpoint = $3.05 /bu). Ending stocks of 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 compare to 37 mb
(6.28% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and 18 mb (4.10% S/U) in MY 2004/05. United States grain sorghum prices of
$3.05 /bu in “current” MY 2016/17 continue the downward trend from $3.31 /bu in MY 2015/16, $4.03 in MY
2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $6.33 /bu in the drought year of MY 2012/13.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S.
sorghum plantings of 6.300 ma (down 461,000 acres), harvested acres of 5.400 ma (down 645,000 acres),
projected yields of 67.1 bu/ac (vs the record high of 76.5 bu in 2016), 2017 U.S. grain sorghum production is
forecast to be 362 mb – down from 462 mb in 2016, and 597 mb in 2015.
With forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 397 mb (down from 500 mb last year and 620 mb the
year before), total use of 365 mb (down from 465 mb last year and 583 the year before), and projected ending
stocks of 32 mb (8.76% S/U) – down from 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 – U.S. sorghum prices
are projected by the USDA to average $3.10 /bu.
Note: This is a “large U.S. feedgrain crop” – “no major U.S. or Foreign crop problem” scenario. Emerging
production threats and the actual outcome of 2017 U.S. grain sorghum and corn production will drive the U.S.
grain sorghum market in “next crop” MY 2017/18.
World Coarse Grain Supply‐Demand: Record high World coarse grain production of 1,329.35 million metric
tons (mmt) is projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 6.4% from 1,249.65 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 1.8%
from 1,306.1 mmt in MY 2014/15. Record high World coarse grain total supplies of 1,574.15 mmt are
projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,495.0 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,517.2 mmt in MY
2014/15. “Coarse grains” include grain sorghum, corn, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
World coarse grain exports of 185.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 12.4% from 164.8 mmt
in MY 2015/16, and down 0.5% from 186.1 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World coarse grain
ending stocks of 254.9 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 244.8 mmt (19.6% S/U) in MY
2015/16, but down from 245.4 mmt (19.3% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at
254.9 mmt, World coarse grain percent ending stocks‐to‐use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to
actually decline marginally to 19.3% ‐ indicative that strong World demand for coarse grains at low prices is
expected to continue – especially in Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather
conditions in the last year.
…
December 29, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐a. December 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean
supply‐demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing
years (MY). The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. soybeans began on September 1, 2017 and will last through
August 31, 2018. Monthly USDA WASDE estimates of U.S. crop and livestock supply‐demand and prices can
be found at the following web address: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its December 2017
Crop Production report. This report can be found at the following web address:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd‐12‐12‐2017.pdf
The next survey‐based report of U.S. soybean production results for 2017 will be released in the USDA
Annual Crop Production Summary and Crop Production reports on January 12, 2018. The same U.S. on‐farm
soybean plots which were sampled for the August, September, October, and November USDA NASS Crop
Production reports will revisited for the January 2018 report – with final 2017 production results reported.
On November 28, 2017 the USDA released its Long Term Agricultural Projections through year 2027.
United States’ soybean supply‐demand and price projections were included, along with corn, wheat, grain
sorghum cotton and other major crops. These Long Term Agricultural Projections can be found at the
following website: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/
I‐b. CME JANUARY & NOVEMBER 2018 Soybean Futures Trends
JANUARY 2018 CME Soybean Futures
Following a low of $9.15 ¼ on June 23, 2017, JANUARY 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) soybean
futures prices trended up sharply to a high of $10.54 ¼ on July 11, 2017 (Figure 1). JAN 2018 soybean futures
then had declined to a low of $9.29 ¼ by August 16th – before trending upward again to a high of $10.13 by
October 13th. After first declining to a low of $9.67 on November 14th and then again trending upward to a
high of $10.15 on December 5th, JAN 2018 soybeans dropped to a low of $9.46 ½ on December 22nd. Since
then, prices have traded in a range of $9.53 ½ to $9.64 ¾ before closing at $9.45 ¾ /bu on December 28th. The
close of $9.45 ¾ for JAN 2018 CME Soybean futures on December 28th was down 10.3% from the July 11th
(early summer 2017) price high of $10.54 ¼ /bu.
NOVEMBER 2018 CME Soybean Futures
In a similar trading pattern to JAN 2018 soybean futures, Following a low of $9.23 ½ on June 23, 2017,
NOVEMBER 2018 soybean futures prices trended up sharply to a high of $10.28 ¾ on July 12, 2017 (Figure 1).
NOV 2018 soybean futures then had declined to a low of $9.34 ½ by August 16th – before trending upward
again to highs of $10.13 by October 13th and $10.15 on November 9th. After first declining to a low of $9.80 ½
on November 14th and then again trending upward to a high of $10.24 on December 5th, NOV 2018 soybeans
dropped to a low of $9.70 on December 21st . Since then, prices have traded in a range of $9.70 to $9.87 ¼
Page | 4
before closing at $9.72 ¾ /bu on December 28th. The close of $9.72 ¾ for NOV 2018 CME Soybean futures on
December 28th was down 5.4% from the July 12th (early summer 2017) price high of $10.28 ¾ /bu.
Figure 1. JANUARY 2018 & NOVEMBER 2018 CME Daily Soybean Futures Price Charts
ne …
August 1, 2005
Land Buying and Valuing
Figure 5. Kansas Crop and Livestock Reporting Service Districts … broken down into nine crop and livestock
reporting service districts … district. The
Northeast crop and livestock reporting service district …
April 6, 2023
Methods and Supporting Information (Prior Years)
o o
Antibiotic use
in livestock
(2) o o o o o
Growth … o
Growth
hormones in
livestock (3) o o o o o
E.coli … Greenhouse
gas
emissions
from livestock
(11)
o o o o o …
July 1, 2024
Land Leasing
Forms
installments.
Only crop-share or livestock-share leases qualify as an … contracts for receiving livestock manure.
13. Field Border … grown may only be fed to livestock, so no relevant market price …
Summary Book - All Counties
Index.......................................................................34
Livestock Profit Center Analysis … Income
The various kinds of livestock and crop income values are … output.
Income for other livestock and crop items is computed …
Beef Backgrounding
Income 658.26
-1,241.24Livestock Futures -57,091.13
$46.45 … 8,067.84 3.83 12.11Misc Livestock Expense 15.684.8415,133.34 …
Beef Backgrounding Finishing
Income 1,130.05
-1,352.67Livestock Futures -13,572.18
$4,665.01 … 16,197.33 2.29 14.72Misc Livestock Expense 10.791.6111,126.24 …