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October 16, 2009
Energy
energy more efficiently, and other competitive market, energy … hydroelectric
power, biomass, and other energy sources. Varying … make up the difference and meet total U.S. energy demand …
Breakout Sessions
Hypothesis, Random Walk theory and other that are
manifestly false … of speculators watching
other speculators:p
– EMH idea … on
immediate behavior of other speculators,
rather than …
October 8, 2024
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor
alongside protein
products that meet consumers’ desire for quality … relatively more frequently than other package
sizes. 40 percent … suggesting possible shifts to
other proteins. Regarding pork …
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
contractual obligations that must meet the basic
requirements of … crops, making repairs
or for other reasonable purposes.
o … party
will compensate the other for any damage caused by …
November 20, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
mestic livestock wheat feeding.
The USDA projects that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S.
hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states. Also, no other major production
problems … Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15. The “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing
year began June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015.
I‐B. Kansas Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs in early May 2014 through mid‐September, Kansas hard red winter wheat futures
trended sharply lower as a) domestic U.S. hard red winter wheat crop prospects improved with adequate
moisture and cooler temperatures in the Great Plains, b) adequate‐to‐favorable weather occurred in the U.S.
eastern Corn Belt for at least “decent” 2014 U.S. soft red winter wheat production, c) major crop production
problems were largely avoided for other major wheat export competitors, and d) the ongoing geopolitical
conflict between major wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea Region did not disrupt the flow of
Black Sea wheat exports into World wheat markets to a significant degree.
DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices responded to the release of the November USDA reports
by first trading lower on the day of the report, and then trending higher. DECEMBER 2014 CBOT Kansas City
wheat efutures prices opened at $5.70 on Monday, November 10th – the day of the release of the USDA
reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time), and traded in a low‐high range of $5.65 ¼ to $5.77 during the
session before closing $0.03 ¾ higher for the day at $5.73 /bu (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2014 Kansas
City wheat efutures prices have risen moderately, rising from a low of $5.69 on November 11th up to a high of
$6.12 ½ on Friday, November 14th before closing at $6.02 ¼ on Wednesday, November 20th.
Figure 1. DEC 2014 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
September 25, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… … er since mid‐July 2011, but
has trended sharply higher since July 1, 2014 (Figure 2). After trading at 75.91 on July 1, the calculated U.S.
trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 80.1 on September 19th. This trend is significant to the U.S.
wheat market, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it
more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars which
they would use in turn to purchase U.S. wheat exports. Although this is not the only factor that is negatively
impacting U.S. wheat exports at this time, it is a very important one – working against U.S. wheat being an
affordable, competitive alternative in World wheat trade
Figure 2. JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade, 1/23/2014 to 9/23/2014) …
February 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ospects for a corn futures price rally above say $5.00 appear
limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in other
major coarse grain production regions of the World (such as in South America or Ukraine). Absent these
occurrences, price prospects are limited until at least April‐May 2015 ‐ the main U.S. corn planting season.
USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA left unchanged its forecast of 2014 U.S.
corn production to be a record 14.216 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage
of 90.597 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.136 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 171.0 bushels
per acre. Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb
last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.645 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago)
is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up 116 mb from last year), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.395 bb (up
28 mb), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb from a year ago), and feed and residual use of 5.250 bb (up 214 mb
vs last year). Ending stocks are forecast at 1.827 bb (13.4% S/U) – down 50 mb from a month ago, but up from
1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13. The USDA forecast that “current
crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices to be in the range of $3.40‐$3.90 per bu. with a midpoint of
$3.65 – vs. $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Increased Usage Scenario for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: An alternative KSU forecast for
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is: 20% prob. of 15.472 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.741 bb total use
(up 0.7% from USDA), 1.731 bb ending stocks, 12.6% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn price (up $0.15 vs USDA)
KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: Two KSU projections for “next crop” MY 2015/16
are as follows: a) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre‐13.4 bb Production” Scenario: 87.597 ma planted, 80.248 ma
harvested, early season USDA baseline forecast yields of 167.2 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.417 bb,
total supplies of 15.269 bb, total use of 13.725 bb, ending stocks of 1.444 bb, 10.52% S/U, & $4.15 /bu U.S.
corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre‐13.0 bb Production” Scenario: Planted and harvested acres
unchanged, but a KSU trend line yield forecast of 162.3 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 13.024 bb, total supplies
of 14.876 bb, total use of 13.585 bb, ending stocks of 1.291 bb, 9.50% S/U, & $4.30 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,165 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15,
up from 1,127 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of
189.6 mmt (19.5% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 172 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
from 138 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Combined MY 2014/15 corn production of major exporters Brazil
(75.0 mmt – down 4.5) and Argentina (23.0 mmt – down 3.0) is projected to be down 10.5 mmt (down 10%)
from MY 2013/14. Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 28.5 mmt is down 2.45 mmt from a year ago.
With closing CME NOV‐2015 soybean futures of $9.86 ¼ and CME DEC‐2015 corn futures of $4.20 ½ on
2/17/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.35 is neutral for the two crops in the U.S. (i.e., being equal to the
customary 2.3 breakeven level). Lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest prices is likely to
limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and corn production potential, and to provide at least a moderate amount of
support for U.S. corn prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16. …
March 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
lihood of corn futures prices rallying above say $5.00 before spring
planting appear limited – unless unexpected, substantial crop production or export availability problems occur
in other major coarse grain produc … ember
29th (corresponding to a high of $4.25 ¼ for the CME MAY 2015 corn contract that same day) before declining
to a low of $3.65 ¾ by January 30th. Then after trading higher to $3.91 ¾ on February 9th, the CME MARCH
2015 corn contract closed on February 27th at $3.84 ½. During this same period of time the CME MAY corn
futures contract traded as high as to $4.00 on February 9th before closing at $3.93 ¼ on February 27th. After
the December 9th highs, neither the MARCH 2015 nor the MAY 2015 corn futures contracts have traded above
$4.00 per bushel – at least through Friday, March 13th.
The CME MAY 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through late April 2015. Local basis adjustments are currently being made off MAY
2015 corn futures for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World
grain markets. T …
December 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
elped to mitigating this factor.
Although the existing “large supply and tight storage availability” situation predominates in local Kansas grain
sorghum and corn markets in late December 2016, it is a positive sign that usage of these crops has provided
enough market support so that Kansas cash prices have not fallen down to USDA loan rate – price support
levels during the 2016 harvest and immediate post‐harvest period.
Other market factors to conside …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets. However, the impact on the
direction of U.S. and World corn markets of such disruptive events are difficult to anticipate – depending on
which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.
USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA has projected 2017 U.S. corn plantings to be 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 3.118 ma from
2016). Harvested acres in 2017 are forecast at 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), with projected yields of 170.7
bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016). This leads to a USDA 2017 U.S. corn production forecast of 14.255
bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.675 bb – down 265 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.350 bb – down 220 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.325 bb (16.20% S/U) – down from 2.370 bb (16.27% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu (range of $2.90‐$3.70). This is down $0.05 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.30 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
Four alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the July 12, 2017 WASDE report for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.815 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.815 bb production, 16.235 bb total
supplies, 14.245 bb total use, 1.990 bb ending stocks, 13.97% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
B ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.652 bb” Scenario (20% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.625 bb production, 16.045 bb total supplies,
14.120 bb total use, 1.925 bb ending stocks, 16.63% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
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C ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “160.0 bu/ac – 13.212 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 160.0 bu/ac yield, 13.212 bb production, 15.632 bb total supplies,
13.920 bb total use, 1.712 bb ending stocks, 12.30% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
D ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #4) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.387 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.387 bb production, 14.807 bb total supplies,
13.400 bb total use, 1.407 bb ending stocks, 10.50% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
Note: even with significant reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in KSU Scenarios C and D
above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.370 bb in “next crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
corn supplies, and lowers price prospects.
World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,036.9 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.0% from the record high of 1,068.8 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.0% from 968.8 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,264.4 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,281.6 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,178.4 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a near record 152.5 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 4.6% from
the record high of 159.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 27.5% from 119.6 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 200.8 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “next crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.5
mmt (21.6% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17, and from 212.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks are
isolated from the World market. “World Less China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.5 mmt (14.5%
S/U and 40.5% of World corn stocks) in “next crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.2 mmt (15.4% S/U and 44.5%
of World stocks) in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 102.0 mmt (13.6% S/U and 52.1% of World Stocks).
These figures show that World stocks of corn less China’s direct influence are projected to be down
approximately 23% (i.e., 14.5% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 18.9% S/U for the “World” overall in
“next crop” MY 2017/18).
These figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World overall is declining –
down from 52.1% in MY 2015/16 to 44.5% in “current” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.5% in “next crop” MY
2017/18. The deliberate actions taken by the Chinese government in recent years to reduce feedgrain
stockpiles is impacting the relative amount of corn stocks they hold in the World corn market.
…