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September 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
levels $0.65 to $0.40 per bushel under DEC 2017 Corn, but still above local FSA loan rates
of $1.85‐$1.93 /bu.. At Topeka in East Central Kansas, a bid was reported of $3.14 /bu (basis = $0.40 under).
Kansas ethanol plant price bids for grain sorghum ranged from $3.14 ¼ to $3.37 ¼ , with basis at $0.35 to
$0.15 under DEC 2017 Corn futures. This higher ethanol bid relative to other Kansas cash grain sorghum …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… …
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. November 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On November 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY).
The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its November 2017
Crop Production report. In this report the USDA used a combination of in‐field objective yield measurements
and farmer surveys conducted between October 25th and November 6th to estimate expected U.S. corn yields
as of November 1st. The objective yield surveys for corn were conducted in the major producing states for
approximately 75% of U.S. corn production. Counts were made within sample plots in person by USDA
enumerators, recording number of corn plants and ears, and ear weights in order to calculate the projected
2017 biological yields for each plot. Average percent harvest loss was then subtracted from these biological
yield estimates to obtain a net yield for each plot sampled.
The same corn plots which were sampled for the August, September and October USDA NASS Crop
Production reports were revisited for the November report. The November 9th USDA NASS Crop Production
report was based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and harvested yield reports, and
actual in‐the‐field yield measurements and conditions for fields remaining to be harvested. A final USDA NASS
Crop Production Summary report with an estimate of 2017 U.S. corn production will be reported on January
12, 2018.
I‐b. CME DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 Corn Futures Trends
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016, DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.04 on February 28, 2017, $4.09 on June 8th, and $4.17
¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of $3.44 ¼ on
August 31st, $3.42 ½ on October 12th, and $3.36 ¼ on Nov. 16th ‐ before closing at $3.45 on November 21st.
JULY 2018 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to DEC 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.79 on August 31, 2016, JULY
2018 CME corn futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.18 ¾ on February 28, 2017, $4.26 ½ on
June 8th, and $4.34 ¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2018 corn futures prices declined to
lows of $3.71 on August 31, 2017, $3.72 ½ on September 12th, $3.71 ½ on November 9th, and $3.65 on
November 16‐17 ‐ before closing at $3.72 ¼ on November 21st.
CME Corn Futures DEC 2017 – JULY 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 corn futures on
Tuesday, December 21st was $0.27 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $3.72 ½ for JULY 2018 Corn less $3.45 for DEC 2017
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Corn), or $0.0389 per bushel per month over a 7‐month period. This compares to commercial grain storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – and some as high as
$0.06 per bushel per month in adjoining states – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or
other discounts.
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of November 21, 2017) …
April 3, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. March 8th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On February 23rd the USDA Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) released its projections of U.S. Grain and
Oilseeds Outlook for “new crop” MY 2018/19 at the 94th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington,
Virginia. The “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year for U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2018 and will last
through August 31, 2019. The next USDA U.S. soybean production and supply‐demand estimates for the “new
crop” 2018/19 marketing year will be released in the May 10th USDA WASDE report, and will be based on
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) projections from the March 29th USDA Prospective Plantings Report
acreage report, using historic harvested‐to‐planted acreage relationships, and a selected 2018 trend yield.
On March 8th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March 2018 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2015/16, 2016/17, and “old crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY). “Old
crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On March 29th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Prospective Plantings
and Grain Stocks reports. Both the Prospective Plantings report and on‐farm portion of the Grain Stocks
report are defined by NASS as “probability surveys” that were conducted during the first two weeks in March.
This combined survey included approximately 82,900 farm operators as a representative sample of U.S. farm
producers. Data from farm operators was collected by “mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview.”
The off‐farm portion of the March 29th Grain Stocks survey was an effort to have a complete enumeration
or “counting” of all 8,500 known commercial grain storage facilities – totaling approximately 11.2 billion
bushels in commercial grain storage capacity. Reports were received from about 90% of these facilities by the
USDA, with estimates made for the remaining 10% who had not responded to the survey.
The first USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimate of 2018 U.S. soybean production
based on actual farmer surveys and in‐field corn plot measurements will be presented in the August 10, 2018
USDA NASS Crop Production report. This will be followed by similar reports in the September, October, and
November, and the final summary report for 2018 to be released in January 2019.
I‐b. CME MAY & DECEMBER 2018 Corn Futures Trends
MAY 2018 CME Corn Futures
Following a high of $4.30 on July 11, 2017, MAY 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures
prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and mid‐winter to a low of $3.53 ¾ on January 12, 2018
(Figure 1). After that MAY 2018 corn futures prices first trended higher then lower again, first being up to a
high or $3.95 ¼ on March 13, 2017, before declining to a low of $3.77 ¼ on March 23rd and closing at $3.73 ½
on March 28th. Then following the USDA Reports released the morning of March 29th, MAY 2018 CME corn
futures traded as high as $3.89 ¼ that same day, and up to $3.92 ½ on April 2nd before closing at $3.87 ¼ that
same day.
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DECEMBER 2018 CME Corn Futures
DECEMBER 2018 corn futures have followed a similar trading pattern to MAY 2018 corn futures. Following
highs of $4.29 ½ on July 11, 2017 and $4.28 on July 20th, DEC 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and into winter to lows of $3.79 ¼ on December
17‐18, 2017, $3.79 ¾ on January 12, 2018 (Figure 1). After that DEC 2018 corn futures prices first trended
higher then lower again, first being up to a high of $4.12 on March 14, 2018, before declining to a low of $3.91
½ on March 23rd and closing at $3.97 on March 28th. Then following the USDA Reports released the morning
of March 29th, DEC 2018 CME corn futures traded as high as $4.11 ¾ that same day, and up to $4.16 on April
2nd before closing at $4.11 ¼ that same day.
CME Corn Futures MAY 2018 – SEPT 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MAY 2018 and SEPT 2018 corn futures on
Monday, April 2nd was $0.15 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.02 ¾ for SEPT 2018 Corn less $3.87 ¼ for MAY 2018 Corn),
or $0.03875 per bu. per month over 4 months. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas in
the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – and some as high as $0.06 per bushel per month in
adjoining states – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Figure 1. MAY & DECEMBER 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of April 2, 2018) …
January 1, 1998
Hedging & Options
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Price Risk Publications
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April 29, 2019
Land Buying and Valuing
Valuation
Department) and others for their assistance with … court-ordered sales, or other transactions that may keep … market is insufficient to meet the supply available. Where …
December 16, 2020
Non‐business capital losses for that year
Other NOLs
Find ways to increase income if facing NOLs`
Kansas … Cash Basis Farmers Have Many Tools to Manage Income and Tax Liability
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Meet ahead of time
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May 16, 2022
Ag Law Issues
unreasonable interferences by others; and (2) landowners must … farmers and ranchers who meet the legal requirements a … about this publication and others, visit AgManager.info.
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December 22, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
h early spring.
The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for soybeans and other major crops
will be the … most recent marketing years.
Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports
The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this
same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt
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in MY 2013/14 (32.0% of World total), and a projected amount of 107.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15
(34.4% of the World total).
United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), and a projected amount of 47.9 mmt in “current crop” MY
2014/15 (40.2% of the World total).
United States’ soybean production and exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 30.1%
over last year, and up 33.6% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high
World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Economists have speculated that
Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine industry production problems or
other broad, systematic economic …
August 21, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
from
100% to 67% (same as other 50% contracts)
34B Ag … Reserved8/21/2012
100% to 67% (same as other 50% contracts),
however … limit?
8. Did the ARPA Law meet its objectives?
9. Is there …