Search
Displaying 501 - 510 of 650
December 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
elped to mitigating this factor.
Although the existing “large supply and tight storage availability” situation predominates in local Kansas grain
sorghum and corn markets in late December 2016, it is a positive sign that usage of these crops has provided
enough market support so that Kansas cash prices have not fallen down to USDA loan rate – price support
levels during the 2016 harvest and immediate post‐harvest period.
Other market factors to conside …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 2
predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets. However, the impact on the
direction of U.S. and World corn markets of such disruptive events are difficult to anticipate – depending on
which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.
USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA has projected 2017 U.S. corn plantings to be 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 3.118 ma from
2016). Harvested acres in 2017 are forecast at 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), with projected yields of 170.7
bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016). This leads to a USDA 2017 U.S. corn production forecast of 14.255
bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.675 bb – down 265 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.350 bb – down 220 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.325 bb (16.20% S/U) – down from 2.370 bb (16.27% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu (range of $2.90‐$3.70). This is down $0.05 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.30 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
Four alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the July 12, 2017 WASDE report for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.815 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.815 bb production, 16.235 bb total
supplies, 14.245 bb total use, 1.990 bb ending stocks, 13.97% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
B ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.652 bb” Scenario (20% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.625 bb production, 16.045 bb total supplies,
14.120 bb total use, 1.925 bb ending stocks, 16.63% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
Page | 3
C ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “160.0 bu/ac – 13.212 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 160.0 bu/ac yield, 13.212 bb production, 15.632 bb total supplies,
13.920 bb total use, 1.712 bb ending stocks, 12.30% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
D ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #4) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.387 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.387 bb production, 14.807 bb total supplies,
13.400 bb total use, 1.407 bb ending stocks, 10.50% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
Note: even with significant reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in KSU Scenarios C and D
above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.370 bb in “next crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
corn supplies, and lowers price prospects.
World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,036.9 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.0% from the record high of 1,068.8 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.0% from 968.8 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,264.4 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,281.6 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,178.4 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a near record 152.5 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 4.6% from
the record high of 159.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 27.5% from 119.6 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 200.8 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “next crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.5
mmt (21.6% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17, and from 212.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks are
isolated from the World market. “World Less China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.5 mmt (14.5%
S/U and 40.5% of World corn stocks) in “next crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.2 mmt (15.4% S/U and 44.5%
of World stocks) in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 102.0 mmt (13.6% S/U and 52.1% of World Stocks).
These figures show that World stocks of corn less China’s direct influence are projected to be down
approximately 23% (i.e., 14.5% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 18.9% S/U for the “World” overall in
“next crop” MY 2017/18).
These figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World overall is declining –
down from 52.1% in MY 2015/16 to 44.5% in “current” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.5% in “next crop” MY
2017/18. The deliberate actions taken by the Chinese government in recent years to reduce feedgrain
stockpiles is impacting the relative amount of corn stocks they hold in the World corn market.
…
December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
owever, the USDA maintains its optimism for “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. corn exports
because of a) low U.S. corn prices, b) expectations of significantly tighter foreign stocks and percent (%)
stocks‐to‐use for corn, and c) the eventual “using up” of competing South American corn exports in early 2018.
Early forecasts are for 2018 Brazilian corn production to be 95 million metric tons (mmt) in this marketing
year with harvests lasting from February through May. Early forecasts are for 2018 Argentina corn production
to be 42 mmt in this marketing year with harvests lasting from March through May. However, dry conditions
may limit 2018 corn production in Argentina and southern Brazil – and subsequently support U.S. corn exports.
Fourth, a continuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2018. World geo‐political events could provide
“shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either direction
depending on the circumstances, the countries involved, and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
In the December 12th Crop Production reports, the USDA left unchanged its projections of a) projected
yields up to a record high of 175.4 bu/ac (vs the previous record of 174.6 in 2016), and b) 2017 U.S. corn
production up to 14.578 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016. The also USDA left unchanged
its forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 16.922 bb – down marginally (20 mb) from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.485 bb – raised 50 mb from November on higher ethanol use, but still
down 162 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.437 bb (16.8% S/U) – up from
2.295 bb (15.7% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu
(range of $2.85‐$3.55). This is down $0.16 /bu from $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is
given an 80% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. These projections are to show how varying corn export outcomes could affect the USDA’s projection
in the December 9, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “Higher Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “2.250 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 2.250 bb exports, 14.785 bb total use, 2.099 bb ending stocks, 14.20% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
Page | 3
B ‐ KSU “Lower Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “1.800 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 1.800 bb exports, 14.360 bb total use, 2.524 bb ending stocks, 17.58% S/U, & $3.20 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
6. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2018/19
In the November 28th Long Term Baseline projections, the USDA forecast for “next crop” MY 2018/19 that
2018 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres would equal 91.0 million acres (ma) and 83.7 ma, respectively,
both up from 90.429 ma planted and 83.119 ma harvested in 2017. Corn yields in 2018 are forecast at 173.5
bu/ac, down from the record high of 175.4 bu/ac in 2017. U.S. corn production is 2018 is projected to be
14.520 bb – down from 14.578 bb now projected for 2017.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 17.007 bb – adjusted for changes in the
December WASDE report in MY 2017/18 ending stocks. Total use is forecast at 14.450 bb – down 35 mb from
this current marketing year. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.557 bb (17.7% S/U) – up from 2.437 bb
(16.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu – up
from $3.20 /bu in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,044.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
2.9% from the record of 1,074.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.3% from 973.5 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,272.1 mmt are down marginally from the record high 1,290.5 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 151.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 7.6% from the record
high of 164.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 26.7% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 204.1 mmt (19.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.3
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected
Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn ending stocks of 142.2 mmt (16.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from
169.0 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 170.8 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 124.5 mmt
(15.0% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.6 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 104.1 mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s
direct influence are projected to be approximately 21% lower (i.e., 15.0% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China”
versus 19.1% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 44.3% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.0%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These
actions may increase Chinese import demand for both U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
August 9, 2016
Breakout session presentations
railroad transportation
Other factors…
o Periods of both … Info: BNSF, Union Pacific, & Other online sources
o Public information … KYLE* SSW SKOL CKRY NCKR* Other
# G
rain
Ele
vato
rs …
May 9, 2016
USDA METSS Project
Children
Mole-Dagbani
52%
Unspecified
21%
Gurma
14%
Akan
4%
Guan
4%
Grusi, Mande, Ga &
Ewe
5%
Other
9%
8
about 1.3 percent … Religion
6%
Traditionalist
23%
Catholic
11%
Protestant
6% Pentecostal
4%
Other Christian
5%
Christian
26%
9 … agricultural producers in other parts of the world, work …
October 1, 2010
Farm Machinery Papers
Producers
are considering other options for obtaining machinery … option has not been used by
other capital purchases, it can … Section 179 deductions have varied considerably. The
deduction was $24,000 in 2002 and then increased
steadily over the next six years until reaching $250,000
in 2008 and was increased to $500,000 for 2010 and
2011. It is scheduled to be reduced to $25,000 in 2012.
Check with a tax advisor regarding the current Section
179 limit and other available tax deductions.
Lease …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
Primary author: Jeri Stroade
12. OTHER BENEFITS OF NAIS ADOPTION … GLEANED FROM INDUSTRY MEETINGS AND LESSONS
LEARNED … Synthesizing a broad set of information on expected benefits, costs,
challenges, recommendations, and concerns associated with NAIS
adoption from personal meetings and phone conversations of our
research team with industry and government stakeholders. The
research team completed in excess of 50 interviews with more than
100 industry and government stakeholders.
3 …
November 27, 2023
Agribusiness Papers
because they did
not consider other error sources apart from … likelihood
function, and all others are as previously defined … iThink®, Stella®, Vensim®, and others, SD models have increasingly …
August 2, 2022
Recent Videos, Precision Ag and Technology Podcasts and Videos
disruptions.
However, many other application areas may be … Operations and/or Planning
• Other Anomaly
Reporting/Identification … Weather Forecast Uses
• Other Types of Systems
What type …
Summary Book - All Counties
1,815 FARM UNITS plus 463 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,278 … …............................................................................. 43-59
Can My Farm Meet the Test? …...................................................................................................................................60
Analysis …