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August 28, 2023
Fed Cattle Pricing
Grade
With the gradual transition to heavier carcasses, relaxed … Angus Beef (CAB) in April 2007. Since
2008, the weighted …
May 3, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
of South America, concerns about
wet soil conditions and delayed plantings in parts of the U.S. western Corn Belt, and an increase in U.S.
feedgrain exports have recently provided support for U.S. grain sorghum and corn prices. That said, there are
several key crop production and market factors that will impact U.S. feedgrain market price direction and
volatility during the remainder of year 2016. First, increasing prospects for a transition from the recently
prevalent El Nino weather system to a La Nina weather pattern with an increased likelihood of hot, dry crop
production conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt in the summer of 2016 could bring about swift, dramatic change in
U.S. grain market supply‐demand and price prospects, and improve prospects for grain sorghum prices and
profitability (in areas of the U.S. not impacted by drought!). Second, total use of U.S. grain sorghum has been
relatively high in “current crop” MY 2015/16 as low sorghum prices have helped domestic U.S. feedgrain‐using
industries to lower their input costs and to improve their profitability (if not limit their financial losses).
Over time the combination of both a) lower production in response to low profits and/or crop production
problems, and b) increased grain sorghum use supported by low grain prices for livestock feed, exports and
grain processing use, are likely to work together to bring about a change in the current prevailing “large crop –
low price” market scenario in U.S./World coarse grain markets.
Given current market information, it seems fair to judge that absent any change in this projected “large supply
/ low price” scenario, U.S. grain sorghum cash prices are unlikely to rise very far from current levels (which are
in the $3.00‐$3.40 per bushel in much of Kansas). Major concerns about U.S. and/or foreign feedgrain crop
production prospects will be required for U.S. grain sorghum prices to move up to $4.00‐$4.50+ during late
spring‐summer 2016.
Page | 2
USDA Estimate for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes in its projected U.S. grain
sorghum supply‐demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16. While 2015 U.S. sorghum production
of 597 mb, total supplies of 620 mb, and total use of 555 mb are unchanged, adjustments were made in
several usage categories. Food, alcohol and industrial use is projected at 124 mb – up 25 mb from March, and
offsetting decreases in exports (315 mb – down 10 mb), and feed and residual use (115 mb – down 15 mb).
Ending stocks are forecast at 65 mb (11.71% S/U) – up from 18 mb (4.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and
34 mb (9.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14. The forecast of U.S. grain sorghum average cash prices is lowered to the
range of $3.10‐$3.30 /bu. ($3.20 midpoint – down $0.10) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, versus $4.03 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and $6.33 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: On December 14, 2015 the USDA released preliminary estimates
of its USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projections on February 25‐26, 2016. The March 31st Prospective
Plantings report provided an updated forecast of 2016 U.S. sorghum planted acreage. These KSU‐adjusted
USDA forecasts for “next crop” MY 2016/17 account for updated grain sorghum planted acreage estimates
and associated production and stocks adjustments.
The USDA projected 2016 U.S. grain sorghum plantings of 7.216 million acres (ma) – down 1.243 ma or 14.7%
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 6.046 ma would be down 1.805 ma or 23.0% vs 2015. With
projected yields of 65.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 394 mb – down sharply
from 597 mb in 2015, but comparable to 433 mb in 2013, and 392 mb in 2012. With forecast “next crop” MY
2016/17 total use of 415 mb (down from 555 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16), and projected ending stocks
of 44 mb (10.6% S/U), U.S. sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.40 /bu – down $0.05 from the
USDA corn price projection of $3.45 /bu for “next crop” MY 2016/17, but up from the $3.20 /bu midpoint
estimate for U.S. grain sorghum “current” MY 2015/16. By KSU estimates, this scenario has a 50% likelihood
of occurring in “next crop” MY 2016/17.
KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. grain sorghum supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with both assuming a 216,000 acre downward
adjustment in 2016 U.S. grain sorghum planted area from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report:
A) “Normal Crop” KSU‐Scenario A (Lower Acres & Trend Yield) (40% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2016/17: 7.000 ma planted, 5.865 ma harvested, 67.3 bu/ac yield, 395 mb production, 460 mb total supplies,
385 mb total use, 75 mb ending stocks, 19.5% S/U, & $3.15 /bu U.S. grain sorghum average price; and B)
“Short Crop” KSU‐Scenario B (Lower Acres & Low Yield) (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2016/17: 7.000 ma planted, 5.865 ma harvested, 55.0 bu/ac yield, 323 mb production, 388 mb total supplies,
341 mb total use, 47 mb ending stocks, 13.8% S/U, & $4.70 /bu U.S. grain sorghum average price.
Potential KSU 2016 U.S. Sorghum and Corn “Short Crop” Scenario – 12.600 Billion Bu U.S. Corn Crop: If
significant corn production problems were to occur in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in
approximately a 12.607 bb corn (150.0 bu/ac yield on 84.044 ma harvested), then all else being equal, ending
stocks of U.S. corn for “next crop” MY 2016/17 could decline to 1.137 bb (8.5% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely
to increase to $4.50‐$5.50 per bushel. Grain sorghum prices in the U.S. would likely in the $4.25 to $5.25 per
bushel range for “next crop” MY 2016/17. At this time by KSU estimates there is a 10% likelihood of this
occurring – similar to “short crop” KSU Scenario B above.
World Coarse Grains Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,505.0 million metric tons (mmt) are projected
for “current” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,514.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,443.9
mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World coarse grain ending stocks of 245.1 mmt (19.5% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 are up marginally from 243.7 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 211.4 mmt
(17.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
Page | 3
I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. April 12th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On April 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. grain sorghum and World coarse
grain supply‐demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current”
2015/16 marketing years. The “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. grain sorghum began on 9/1/2015
and will last through 8/31/2016. The March 9th and April 12th USDA WASDE reports followed earlier U.S. corn
and grain sorghum supply‐demand and price projections for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year (i.e., MY
2016/17) provided by the USDA on December 14, 2015 in preparation for the 2016 Agricultural Outlook
Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 25‐26, 2016.
Prior to the April 12th USDA WASDE report, on March 31st the USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. The
USDA used information from the Quarterly Grain Stocks report to make adjustments in the U.S. grain sorghum
supply‐demand balance sheet. Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used in this
report to update the USDA’s grain sorghum production and supply‐demand projections for to provide KSU‐
adjusted USDA projections “next crop” MY 2016/17. These adjustments anticipate what the USDA is likely to
do if it follows it’s usual practice in the upcoming May 10th USDA WASDE report in releasing its own updated
U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and price projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
I‐B. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Average Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas grain sorghum over the last 15 years indicate definite
seasonal price patterns (Figure 2). In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. grain sorghum, price
movements from month‐to‐month have been inconsistent with historic seasonal price patterns that have
occurred over the previous fifteen grain sorghum marketing years in Kansas. Sorghum prices in the U.S. have
declined on a month‐to‐month basis from the beginning of “current crop” MY 2015/16 in September 2015
through February 2016. After a marginal recovery higher in March 2016, prices in April fell to new marketing
year lows, but are projected to trend higher from May through August.
Since MY 1999/2000 Kansas grain sorghum prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of
October, with an average seasonal price index of 93.3% of the unweighted average Kansas sorghum price for
the September‐August marketing year. Kansas cash grain sorghum prices have then on average trended
consistently higher from November harvest lows through the spring months of March‐April‐May – up to highs
in the range of 104.0%‐104.4% of the marketing year average price. Kansas grain sorghum prices have then
tended to decline moderately in the month of June, and then to trend lower during July‐August. The most
variability has occurred at the beginning of harvest (September) and ending quarter (June‐July‐August) of the
last fifteen (15) September‐August U.S. sorghum marketing years.
Page | 4
Figure 2. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Price Index: MY 1999/00 – “Old Crop” MY 2014/15 plus
USDA Estimates for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16 (Sources: www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS)
I‐C. U.S. Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand
U.S. Grain Sorghum Acreage, Yield & Production
Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand balance sheet for the MY 2009/10 through
“current crop” MY 2015/16 period, with KSU‐adjusted USDA projections and KSU forecasts for “next crop” MY
2016/17. Grain sorghum planted and harvested planted acreage in the U.S. for the 2000 – 2016 period are
shown in Figure 2, with U.S. grain sorghum yields for 1973 through 2016 are shown in Figure 3. United States’
grain sorghum total supplies for the 2000/01 through projected 2016/17 marketing years are shown in Figure
4. Table 1 and Figures 2‐4 show the growth in U.S. grain sorghum production and total supplies since the
drought‐impacted year of MY 2012/13 through “current crop” MY 2015/16, and the USDA forecast of smaller
U.S. grain sorghum acreage, production and total supplies in “next crop” MY 2016/17.
U.S. Grain Sorghum Acres
In its March 31st Prospective Plantings report, the USDA projected that in 2016 U.S. grain sorghum planted
area will equal 7.216 million acres or ‘ma’, compared to 8.459 ma in 2015, 7.138 ma in 2014, 8.076 ma in 2013,
and 6.401 ma in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 2). Using a historic average (2000‐2015) U.S. harvested‐to‐planted
acreage of 83.79%, 2016 U.S. grain sorghum harvested acreage is projected at 6.046 ma, compared to 7.851
ma in 2015, 6.401 ma in 2014, and 6.401 ma in 2013 (Table 1 and Figure 2). This KSU‐adjusted USDA crop
acreage scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU estimates.
For both the “normal crop” A and “short crop” B KSU Scenario projections, 2016 U.S. grain sorghum
planted acres are projected to be 7.000 ma, down 216,000 acres from the March 31st USDA projection, while
2016 U.S. sorghum harvested acres are forecast to be 5.865 ma – down 181,000 acres versus the KSU‐adjusted
94.1 …
March 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ge in this projected “large
supply / low price” scenario, U.S. grain sorghum cash prices are unlikely to rise from current levels (which are
at or below $3.00 per bushel in Kansas) up to $4.00‐$4.50+ by late spring and mid‐summer 2016. Also, if low
Page | 2
“old crop” MY 2015/16 grain sorghum prices and enterprise profits persist through April‐May 2016, then it is
very possible that U.S. farmers’ 2016 grain sorghum planted acreage and 2016 production prospects may be
negatively affected.
Production & Market Uncertainties: There are a variety of crop production and market factors could impact
U.S. feedgrain market price direction and volatility during year 2016. First, increasing prospects for a transition
from the El Nino weather system that has prevailed in recent years / months to a La Nina weather pattern with
an increased likelihood of hot, dry crop production conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt in the summer of 2016
could bring about swift, dramatic change in U.S. grain market supply‐demand and price prospects, and
improve prospects for grain sorghum profitability (in areas of the U.S. not impacted by drought!). Second,
total use of U.S. grain sorghum has been relatively high in “current crop” MY 2015/16 as low sorghum prices
have helped feedgrain‐using industries to lower their input costs and helped them to improve their
profitability if not limit their financial losses.
Over time the combination of both a) lower production in response to low profits and/or crop production
problems, and b) increased grain sorghum use supported by low grain prices for livestock feed, exports and
grain processing use, are likely work together to bring about a change in the prevailing “large crop – low price”
market scenario in U.S./World coarse grain markets.
USDA Estimate for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made no changes in its estimate of the U.S. grain
sorghum supply‐demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. sorghum production of
597 mb, and total supplies of 620 mb. Total use is projected to be 555 mb – including food, alcohol and
industrial use of 99 mb, seed use of 1 mb, exports of 325 mb, and feed and residual use of 130 mb. Ending
stocks are forecast at 65 mb (11.71% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – up from 18 mb (4.0% S/U) in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, and 34 mb (9.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. grain sorghum average cash prices are forecast
to be in the range of $3.15‐$3.45 /bu. ($3.30 midpoint) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 versus $4.03 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and $6.33 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: On December 14, 2015 the USDA released preliminary estimates
of its USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projections on February 25‐26, 2016. In its December 14th forecasts
the USDA forecast U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year
beginning September 1, 2016, but provided no further specifics in the February 25‐26 meeting.
The USDA projected 2016 U.S. grain sorghum plantings of 7.300 million acres (ma) – down 1.159 ma or 13.7%
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 6.300 ma would be down 1.551 ma vs 2015. With projected
yields of 65.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 410 mb – down sharply from 597 mb
in 2015, and comparable to 433 mb in 2013, and 392 mb in 2012. With forecast “next crop” MY 2016/17 total
use of 415 mb (down from 555 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16), and projected ending stocks of 60 mb
(14.46% S/U), U.S. sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.40 /bu – down $0.05 from the USDA
corn price projection of $3.45 /bu for “next crop” MY 2016/17, but up from $3.30 /bu midpoint estimate for
U.S. grain sorghum “current” MY 2015/16.
Potential KSU 2016 U.S. Sorghum and Corn “Short Crop” Scenario – 13.000 Billion Bu U.S. Corn Crop: If
moderately significant corn production problems were to occur in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in a
13.000 bb corn (157.95 bu/ac yield on 82.300 ma harvested), then all else being equal, ending stocks of U.S.
corn for “next crop” MY 2016/17 could decline to 1.172 bb (8.5% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely to increase
to $4.50‐$5.50 per bushel. Grain sorghum prices in the U.S. would likely in the $4.25 to $5.25 per bushel range
for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
World Coarse Grains Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,504.7 million metric tons (mmt) are projected
for “current” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,509.65 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,444.5
Page | 3
mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World coarse grain ending stocks of 243.1 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 are up marginally from 241.15 mmt (19.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 211.2 mmt
(17.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
…
June 22, 2022
Recent Videos, Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
liberationof Ukraine (for a transitional period of 3‐5years)»
25th … and veterinary control of transit cargoes of grain from Ukraine
… 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Date
Tho
usa
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Annual Book
increase of nearly 15% from 2007. The top graph on page 11 … income increased 31.9%
from 2007 to 2008. Wheat and soybeans … income is $8,085
higher than 2007, representing an increase …
Annual Book
www.agmanager.info/kfma). The KFMA web site was transitioned last year to a sub web of … 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
$/Fa
rm
KFMA … 121,891 $133,820 $124,617
2007 237,620 $114,450 $85,280 …
January 15, 2013
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Mil. Tons
G-NP-22
01/11/13Livestock … Business planning skills (transition, structure, alliances, etc … 5-600
Lbs. ($/cwt)
1996-2007 2.37 99.88 75.18 89.37 100.33
2008 …
June 9, 2012
Christopher Wolf (MSU)
• Nov. 2007; 1,000 surveys in MI
– … mandated, but market encouraged transition
• Implication: “Fighting …
September 14, 2016
Mandatory Price Reporting
Jones, 2004; Key and
McBride, 2007; McGrann2007; O’Donoghue et al., 2011 … and Schroeder 2014; Taylor, 2007) and the data (e.g., Ball … enough, a niche
attribute will transition to a commodity attribute …
August 19, 2016
Breakout session presentations
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Perc
ent … montev@ksu.edu
9.)
Farm and non‐farm income
$0$20,000
$40,000$60,000
$80,000$100,000
$120,000$140,000
$160,000$180,000
$200,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 130,984
Spending: family living expenses & taxes
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$40,000$60,000
$80,000$100,000
$120,000$140,000
$160,000$180,000
$200,000
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