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December 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
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Wheat Market Outlook in Late‐December 2018
Daniel O’Brien – Extension Agricultural Economist, K‐State Research and Extension
December 26, 2018
A. Overview of World Wheat Markets
The United States’ wheat market has continued to “struggle” to find much strength since mid‐October
2018 due to strong competition from foreign exports. Although available supplies from major foreign
exporters are historically “tight”, wheat supplies held by non‐exporting countries in the rest of the World
continue to be large – limiting foreign buying of U.S. wheat.
Lower production has occurred in the “current” 2018/19 marketing year (which began June 1, 2018) in
major exporting countries such as Australia (down 20.2% to 17.0 million metric tons or ‘mmt’ from a year ago).
Production has been lower in parts of the European Union (down 9.0% in total to 137.60 mmt). In the Black
Sea Region, wheat production is down in Russia (down 17.6% to 70.00 mmt) and Ukraine (down 7.3% to 25.00
mmt) (Figures 14a‐b & 15a‐b). Globally, World wheat production in “current” MY 2018/19 of 733.41 mmt is
down 3.9% from last year’s record high of 736.03 mmt. But large carryover stocks from “old crop” MY 2017/18
have upheld total World supplies and supply‐demand balances. Due to both stronger U.S. currency values and
adequate World wheat non‐exporter supplies, rises in U.S. wheat prices have been limited (Figures 4 & 13).
B. World Wheat Supply‐Demand – “Near‐Record World Supplies & Ending Stocks”
The USDA projects that the recent “large supply – large use” situation that has persisted for the World
wheat market since the last “supply‐demand” period in MY 2012/13 will continue (Figure 13). Viewed in
aggregate these World supply and use numbers do NOT bring light to periodic shortages of high protein wheat
that are problematic in World markets. Declining stocks of food quality wheat in major wheat exporting
countries in the last 1‐2 years may also be somewhat hidden. For example, there are regular, annual concerns
from the Black Sea Region about the amount of food versus feed quality wheat available for export on World
markets this year. They also do not account for the sizable wheat stocks held by China that are isolated from
the World wheat market and which tend to distort the supply‐demand picture presented by aggregate World
market measures (Figures 15a‐b).
World wheat production in “current” MY 2018/19 is projected to be 733.41 million metric tons (mmt)
which would be the fourth highest amount on record. This amount would be down 3.9% from the record high
763.06 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and down 3.1% from 756.51 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13). Total
production of World wheat has increased annually on average from 612.23 mmt in MY 2007/08 to present
levels at a rate of +11.0 mmt (+2.1% annually). The “current” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) which began on
June 1, 2018 and will last through May 31, 2019.
World wheat total supplies in “current” MY 2018/19 are projected to be a near record 1,013.35 mmt –
down 1.05% from 1,024.10 mmt in “old crop” 2017/18, but up from 1,000.90 mmt in MY 2016/17.
World wheat exports are forecast to be 177.36 mmt in the “current” 2018/19 marketing year – down from
a 181.23 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and the record high of 183.35 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13).
World wheat exporting countries and regions are presented in order of size (i.e., largest to smallest):
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December 21, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
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Soybean Market Outlook in Late‐December 2018 … ors – Winter through Summer 2019
The U.S. soybean market outlook from now through Summer … from China had made their first purchases of
U.S. soybeans since they imposed 25% tariffs on U.S. soybean imports into their country in July 2018, with
more purchases made by Chinese interests since then.
As a result of these ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China, the USDA lowered its projection
of U.S. soybean exports in “Current” MY 2018/19 from 2.060 bb in the October 2018 WASDE report down to
1.900 bb in th …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… ction and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) reports, DEC 2017 CME corn futur … …
November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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Corn Market Outlook in Mid‐November 2017 … ction and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) reports, DEC 2017 CME corn futur … er their initial decline. During the summer months of 2017 DEC 2017 corn f …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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Corn Market Outlook in Late‐October 2017 … ction and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) reports, DEC 2017 CME corn futur … before closing at $3.50
½ on October 25th.
Looking back, until the August 10th USDA reports U.S. corn prices had fou …
December 29, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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Soybean Market Outlook in Late‐December 2017 … … …
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… ction and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) reports, DEC 2017 CME corn futur … …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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Corn Market Outlook in Mid‐July 2017
Dan … ly 12th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, SEPT 2017 CME
corn fut … ned at $4.00 on July 12th – the day of the
report – then traded as low …
May 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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Corn Market Outlook in Mid‐May 2017
Dani … y 10th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, JULY 2017 CME
corn fut … …
May 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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Corn Market Outlook in Early‐May 2017
Da … l 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, MAY 2017 CME
corn futu … …