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July 27, 2023
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
Bluestem Pasture Survey. All
other results are based solely … Kansas pasture.
2
the other hand, was in relatively better … pasture leases for activities other than livestock (Table 2 …
January 4, 2024
Methods and Supporting Information
have also started buying other brands. 3 1 I expect to …
Price Risk Publications
set up a margin account and meet margin
calls if the market … associated futures contract. In other
words, a March corn option … is not as important as
the other factors, interest rates would …
December 1, 2016
KFMA Research
3
cropping mixture, fertility program, farming practices, and operation structure), rather than luck, are leading to the
difference between the financial states.
Data and Methods
Persistence was tested on nearly 1,300 KFMA farmer‐members using panel data from 1993 through 2014.
Five different categories were created to categorize farms into different levels of financial stability. Farms were then
categorized by different threshold values for the variables: Debt to Asset (D/A) ratio and Net Farm Income by Acre.
Debt to asset ratios have often been used when determining the viability of a loan applicant, therefore, it became one
of the key determining factors used to categorize farms into different financial categories. A D/A of 0.4 or lower was
deemed to be a necessary level where a farm was financially favorable. The second break point was if the farm had a
positive net farm income per acre (NFI/AC) or a negative NFI/AC. Due to the nature of farming a positive income is not
always possible, but a farm that is able to maintain breakeven production costs shows management skills and an
ability to properly control for price risk.
Break points, loosely based upon the USDA Economic Research Service financial vulnerability definition, were
used and each farm was assigned to a category for each year that their data were available in the KFMA data set.
Once farm observations not meeting the inclusion criteria were omitted, 28,294 observations remained for further
analysis. Outliers were farms that had D/A above 1 or were negative, an impossible scenario that may indicate a
corrupt entry. Category 1 farms were farms considered to be financially favorable with a positive NFI/AC and a D/A
ratio greater than the lending industry standard of 0.4. These farms were designated as favorable because of their
profitability and their solvent nature. Category 2 farms were farms with a negative NFI/AC, but were not highly
leveraged with a D/A below 0.4 and were called Marginal Income. Category 3 was similar to Category 1 except these
farms had a positive NFI/AC and were considered highly leveraged and lacking the preferred solvency, hence the term
Marginal Solvency. It should be noted that Category 3 and Category 4 were not ordinal but could be considered
equivalent when attempting to rank across categories. However, Category 4 was the poorest rating, including farms
that were highly leveraged with a D/A above 0.4 and negative NFI/AC giving them the designation of Vulnerable. The
Kansas State University Department Of Agricultural Economics Extension Publication …
Price Risk Publications
has completely eroded.
In other words, do nothing if the … imple-
menting a hedge that meets your needs. Basis does
fluctuate … positive cash flow,
or any other possible objective you may …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
lender, and
insurance industry meetings. Art's wife, Nancy, holds … or “load out”). In other words,
the intent was to … large increase in wheat and other grain inventories held at …
November 20, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
mestic livestock wheat feeding.
The USDA projects that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S.
hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states. Also, no other major production
problems … Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for “new crop” MY 2014/15. The “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing
year began June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015.
I‐B. Kansas Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs in early May 2014 through mid‐September, Kansas hard red winter wheat futures
trended sharply lower as a) domestic U.S. hard red winter wheat crop prospects improved with adequate
moisture and cooler temperatures in the Great Plains, b) adequate‐to‐favorable weather occurred in the U.S.
eastern Corn Belt for at least “decent” 2014 U.S. soft red winter wheat production, c) major crop production
problems were largely avoided for other major wheat export competitors, and d) the ongoing geopolitical
conflict between major wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea Region did not disrupt the flow of
Black Sea wheat exports into World wheat markets to a significant degree.
DECEMBER 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices responded to the release of the November USDA reports
by first trading lower on the day of the report, and then trending higher. DECEMBER 2014 CBOT Kansas City
wheat efutures prices opened at $5.70 on Monday, November 10th – the day of the release of the USDA
reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time), and traded in a low‐high range of $5.65 ¼ to $5.77 during the
session before closing $0.03 ¾ higher for the day at $5.73 /bu (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2014 Kansas
City wheat efutures prices have risen moderately, rising from a low of $5.69 on November 11th up to a high of
$6.12 ½ on Friday, November 14th before closing at $6.02 ¼ on Wednesday, November 20th.
Figure 1. DEC 2014 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
September 25, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… … er since mid‐July 2011, but
has trended sharply higher since July 1, 2014 (Figure 2). After trading at 75.91 on July 1, the calculated U.S.
trade weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 80.1 on September 19th. This trend is significant to the U.S.
wheat market, because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it
more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars which
they would use in turn to purchase U.S. wheat exports. Although this is not the only factor that is negatively
impacting U.S. wheat exports at this time, it is a very important one – working against U.S. wheat being an
affordable, competitive alternative in World wheat trade
Figure 2. JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade, 1/23/2014 to 9/23/2014) …
February 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
ospects for a corn futures price rally above say $5.00 appear
limited – unless unexpected and substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in other
major coarse grain production regions of the World (such as in South America or Ukraine). Absent these
occurrences, price prospects are limited until at least April‐May 2015 ‐ the main U.S. corn planting season.
USDA U.S. Corn Forecast for “Current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA left unchanged its forecast of 2014 U.S.
corn production to be a record 14.216 billion bushels (bb), based on projected planted and harvested acreage
of 90.597 million acres or ‘ma’, and 83.136 ma, respectively, and a record 2014 U.S. corn yield of 171.0 bushels
per acre. Projected record U.S. corn total supplies of 15.668 bb (billion bushels) are up 5.4% from 14.686 bb
last year. Projected MY 2014/15 total corn usage of 13.645 bb (up 50 mb or million bushels from a month ago)
is also a record, with ethanol use of 5.250 bb (up 116 mb from last year), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.395 bb (up
28 mb), exports of 1.750 bb (down 167 mb from a year ago), and feed and residual use of 5.250 bb (up 214 mb
vs last year). Ending stocks are forecast at 1.827 bb (13.4% S/U) – down 50 mb from a month ago, but up from
1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and 821 mb (7.4% S/U) in MY 2012/13. The USDA forecast that “current
crop” MY 2014/15 U.S. average cash corn prices to be in the range of $3.40‐$3.90 per bu. with a midpoint of
$3.65 – vs. $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 in MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Corn Increased Usage Scenario for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: An alternative KSU forecast for
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is: 20% prob. of 15.472 bb U.S. corn supplies (same as USDA), 13.741 bb total use
(up 0.7% from USDA), 1.731 bb ending stocks, 12.6% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn price (up $0.15 vs USDA)
KSU U.S. Corn S/D Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: Two KSU projections for “next crop” MY 2015/16
are as follows: a) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre‐13.4 bb Production” Scenario: 87.597 ma planted, 80.248 ma
harvested, early season USDA baseline forecast yields of 167.2 bu/ac, 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.417 bb,
total supplies of 15.269 bb, total use of 13.725 bb, ending stocks of 1.444 bb, 10.52% S/U, & $4.15 /bu U.S.
corn MYA prices; b) “2015 Less 3 Million Acre‐13.0 bb Production” Scenario: Planted and harvested acres
unchanged, but a KSU trend line yield forecast of 162.3 bu/ac, U.S. corn production of 13.024 bb, total supplies
of 14.876 bb, total use of 13.585 bb, ending stocks of 1.291 bb, 9.50% S/U, & $4.30 /bu U.S. corn MYA prices.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,165 mmt are projected for “current crop” MY 2014/15,
up from 1,127 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 1,002.5 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World corn ending stocks of
189.6 mmt (19.5% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 172 mmt (18.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and
from 138 mmt (16.0% S/U) in MY 2012/13. Combined MY 2014/15 corn production of major exporters Brazil
(75.0 mmt – down 4.5) and Argentina (23.0 mmt – down 3.0) is projected to be down 10.5 mmt (down 10%)
from MY 2013/14. Forecast Ukraine 2014 corn production of 28.5 mmt is down 2.45 mmt from a year ago.
With closing CME NOV‐2015 soybean futures of $9.86 ¼ and CME DEC‐2015 corn futures of $4.20 ½ on
2/17/2015, the soybean/corn price ratio of 2.35 is neutral for the two crops in the U.S. (i.e., being equal to the
customary 2.3 breakeven level). Lack of profitability for U.S. corn at expected 2015 harvest prices is likely to
limit 2015 U.S. corn planted acres and corn production potential, and to provide at least a moderate amount of
support for U.S. corn prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16. …
March 17, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
lihood of corn futures prices rallying above say $5.00 before spring
planting appear limited – unless unexpected, substantial crop production or export availability problems occur
in other major coarse grain produc … ember
29th (corresponding to a high of $4.25 ¼ for the CME MAY 2015 corn contract that same day) before declining
to a low of $3.65 ¾ by January 30th. Then after trading higher to $3.91 ¾ on February 9th, the CME MARCH
2015 corn contract closed on February 27th at $3.84 ½. During this same period of time the CME MAY corn
futures contract traded as high as to $4.00 on February 9th before closing at $3.93 ¼ on February 27th. After
the December 9th highs, neither the MARCH 2015 nor the MAY 2015 corn futures contracts have traded above
$4.00 per bushel – at least through Friday, March 13th.
The CME MAY 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through late April 2015. Local basis adjustments are currently being made off MAY
2015 corn futures for spot cash corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World
grain markets. T …