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November 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… …
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. November 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On November 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its November 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY).
The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its November 2017
Crop Production report. In this report the USDA used a combination of in‐field objective yield measurements
and farmer surveys conducted between October 25th and November 6th to estimate expected U.S. corn yields
as of November 1st. The objective yield surveys for corn were conducted in the major producing states for
approximately 75% of U.S. corn production. Counts were made within sample plots in person by USDA
enumerators, recording number of corn plants and ears, and ear weights in order to calculate the projected
2017 biological yields for each plot. Average percent harvest loss was then subtracted from these biological
yield estimates to obtain a net yield for each plot sampled.
The same corn plots which were sampled for the August, September and October USDA NASS Crop
Production reports were revisited for the November report. The November 9th USDA NASS Crop Production
report was based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and harvested yield reports, and
actual in‐the‐field yield measurements and conditions for fields remaining to be harvested. A final USDA NASS
Crop Production Summary report with an estimate of 2017 U.S. corn production will be reported on January
12, 2018.
I‐b. CME DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 Corn Futures Trends
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016, DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.04 on February 28, 2017, $4.09 on June 8th, and $4.17
¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of $3.44 ¼ on
August 31st, $3.42 ½ on October 12th, and $3.36 ¼ on Nov. 16th ‐ before closing at $3.45 on November 21st.
JULY 2018 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to DEC 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.79 on August 31, 2016, JULY
2018 CME corn futures prices trended upward over time to highs of $4.18 ¾ on February 28, 2017, $4.26 ½ on
June 8th, and $4.34 ¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2018 corn futures prices declined to
lows of $3.71 on August 31, 2017, $3.72 ½ on September 12th, $3.71 ½ on November 9th, and $3.65 on
November 16‐17 ‐ before closing at $3.72 ¼ on November 21st.
CME Corn Futures DEC 2017 – JULY 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 corn futures on
Tuesday, December 21st was $0.27 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $3.72 ½ for JULY 2018 Corn less $3.45 for DEC 2017
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Corn), or $0.0389 per bushel per month over a 7‐month period. This compares to commercial grain storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – and some as high as
$0.06 per bushel per month in adjoining states – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or
other discounts.
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of November 21, 2017) …
April 3, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. March 8th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On February 23rd the USDA Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) released its projections of U.S. Grain and
Oilseeds Outlook for “new crop” MY 2018/19 at the 94th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington,
Virginia. The “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year for U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2018 and will last
through August 31, 2019. The next USDA U.S. soybean production and supply‐demand estimates for the “new
crop” 2018/19 marketing year will be released in the May 10th USDA WASDE report, and will be based on
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) projections from the March 29th USDA Prospective Plantings Report
acreage report, using historic harvested‐to‐planted acreage relationships, and a selected 2018 trend yield.
On March 8th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March 2018 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2015/16, 2016/17, and “old crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY). “Old
crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On March 29th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Prospective Plantings
and Grain Stocks reports. Both the Prospective Plantings report and on‐farm portion of the Grain Stocks
report are defined by NASS as “probability surveys” that were conducted during the first two weeks in March.
This combined survey included approximately 82,900 farm operators as a representative sample of U.S. farm
producers. Data from farm operators was collected by “mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview.”
The off‐farm portion of the March 29th Grain Stocks survey was an effort to have a complete enumeration
or “counting” of all 8,500 known commercial grain storage facilities – totaling approximately 11.2 billion
bushels in commercial grain storage capacity. Reports were received from about 90% of these facilities by the
USDA, with estimates made for the remaining 10% who had not responded to the survey.
The first USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimate of 2018 U.S. soybean production
based on actual farmer surveys and in‐field corn plot measurements will be presented in the August 10, 2018
USDA NASS Crop Production report. This will be followed by similar reports in the September, October, and
November, and the final summary report for 2018 to be released in January 2019.
I‐b. CME MAY & DECEMBER 2018 Corn Futures Trends
MAY 2018 CME Corn Futures
Following a high of $4.30 on July 11, 2017, MAY 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures
prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and mid‐winter to a low of $3.53 ¾ on January 12, 2018
(Figure 1). After that MAY 2018 corn futures prices first trended higher then lower again, first being up to a
high or $3.95 ¼ on March 13, 2017, before declining to a low of $3.77 ¼ on March 23rd and closing at $3.73 ½
on March 28th. Then following the USDA Reports released the morning of March 29th, MAY 2018 CME corn
futures traded as high as $3.89 ¼ that same day, and up to $3.92 ½ on April 2nd before closing at $3.87 ¼ that
same day.
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DECEMBER 2018 CME Corn Futures
DECEMBER 2018 corn futures have followed a similar trading pattern to MAY 2018 corn futures. Following
highs of $4.29 ½ on July 11, 2017 and $4.28 on July 20th, DEC 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and into winter to lows of $3.79 ¼ on December
17‐18, 2017, $3.79 ¾ on January 12, 2018 (Figure 1). After that DEC 2018 corn futures prices first trended
higher then lower again, first being up to a high of $4.12 on March 14, 2018, before declining to a low of $3.91
½ on March 23rd and closing at $3.97 on March 28th. Then following the USDA Reports released the morning
of March 29th, DEC 2018 CME corn futures traded as high as $4.11 ¾ that same day, and up to $4.16 on April
2nd before closing at $4.11 ¼ that same day.
CME Corn Futures MAY 2018 – SEPT 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MAY 2018 and SEPT 2018 corn futures on
Monday, April 2nd was $0.15 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.02 ¾ for SEPT 2018 Corn less $3.87 ¼ for MAY 2018 Corn),
or $0.03875 per bu. per month over 4 months. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas in
the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – and some as high as $0.06 per bushel per month in
adjoining states – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Figure 1. MAY & DECEMBER 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of April 2, 2018) …
January 31, 2022
Ag Law Issues
trial court’s ruling while other aspects of
the case proceeded … application beyond Iowa. Courts in other states
facing novel issues … to look at how courts in other states have ruled on those …
December 22, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
h early spring.
The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for soybeans and other major crops
will be the … most recent marketing years.
Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports
The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this
same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt
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in MY 2013/14 (32.0% of World total), and a projected amount of 107.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15
(34.4% of the World total).
United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.9 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8
mmt in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), and a projected amount of 47.9 mmt in “current crop” MY
2014/15 (40.2% of the World total).
United States’ soybean production and exports in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be up 30.1%
over last year, and up 33.6% over two years ago.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the historically high
World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Economists have speculated that
Chinese soybean import demand growth may eventually slow due to swine industry production problems or
other broad, systematic economic …
October 16, 2020
Animal ID & Traceability
Stocker/backgrounder 50 25.8%
Other 74 38.1%
Total 194 100.0 … 1.1%
Carcass basis 2 1.1%
Other 41 22.9%
Total 179 100.0 … Tell buyer orally 39 58.2%
Other 3 4.5%
Total 67 100.0 …
September 1, 2009
Assessing Business Opportunities
Abstract
Business development is crucial for sustained economic progress and individual well‐being.
This paper describes how to provide support for business development efforts in communities
in conflict environments or only recently emerged from conflict environments. It uses the
Cascade Approach® to provide a clear and practical framework for developing businesses that
are carefully and deliberately discovered by people who are passionate about them and are
capable of marshaling the requisite resources to transform ideas into exploitable value.
The author is an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State
University. He may be reached by telephone at (785) 532‐3520 and by email at
vincent@ksu.edu.
There are worksheets accompanying this paper and they are available at www.Agmanager.info.
Contents
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1
Research Problem and Paper Outline ......................................................................................... 1
PART I: PHILOSOPHICAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................... 3
The Geography of Economic Thought ........................................................................................ 3
Our Assumptions Are Not Necessarily Universal ........................................................................ 4
Establishing the Purpose for Action ............................................................................................ 6
PART II: OPPORTUNITY DISCOVERY AND ASSESSMENT.................................................................. 8
Defining the Person Searching for Opportunities ....................................................................... 8
The Conscious Search for Opportunities .................................................................................... 9
Assessment of Identified Opportunities ................................................................................... 11
Transforming Opportunities into Exploitable Value ................................................................. 12
Marshaling of Strategic Resources ........................................................................................... 16
Assigning Responsibilities ......................................................................................................... 18
PART III: FROM STRATEGIC THINKING TO STRATEGIC ACTION .................................................... 19
There Are No Islands ................................................................................................................. 19
Executing the Ideas ................................................................................................................... 20
There Are No Linearities, Expect Breakdowns .......................................................................... 22
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................. 23
REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 24
1
Practical Strategies for Business Development in
Conflict and Post‐Conflict Environments
Vincent Amanor‐Boadu
August 2009
INTRODUCTION
Conflicts can have adverse effects on people’s decision‐making capacity
and influence their relationships. This is because conflicts affect the
sensemaking that people bring to events and situations. Entrepreneurial
actions are based on creativity. They are driven by a way of thinking and
seeing that presents valuable opportunities which may be exploited for
the value they present. Given that entrepreneurs in conflict and post‐
conflict environments can be affected immeasurably by the subtle and
not‐so‐subtle events that define and characterize their experiences, their
ability to see opportunities and assess them is frequently affected by
these events. Thus, working in conflict or post‐conflict environments can
arduous because one has to negotiate one’s own sensemaking processes
as well navigate those of the people with whom one is working.
Despite these challenges, the work can be very rewarding if those
working on business development in these environments can develop the
right appreciation of the fundamentals of entrepreneurial business
development and understanding resource availability and constraints.
Their efforts can yield some positive effects if they can understand their
entrepreneurs’ capabilities and their capacities to overcome these
constraints as well as their audacity to drive towards their defined
objectives. These fruitful outcomes were observed in Japan and Europe
after the Second World War, when U.S. economic support under the
Marshall Plan helped leverage the inherent capabilities of Europeans and
Japanese to overcome the scourge of that conflict.
Research Problem and Paper Outline
This paper is framed to guide people working with nascent entrepreneurs
in conflict or post‐conflict environments embark on business
development initiatives. It focuses on the strategic aspects of business
development—opportunity discovery and assessment, resource
marshaling and execution of strategic plans. The tactical issues related to
business formation and marketing of products and services are treated
under a different title. Besides, the strategic issues discussed here are
less culture and location‐dependent than the tactical issues, allowing us
to discuss them in more generic terms. The paper’s overall objective,
2
then, is to provide the strategic processes that may be used to help with
business start‐ups and entrepreneurial renewal in conflict and post‐
conflict environments.
The people in conflict and post‐conflict environments are generally
different from the people who offer help and support that go beyond
culture. As Richard Nesbitt observed in his book The Geography of
Thought, these differences are embedded in the way people are
conditioned to “see” and interpret what they see. The tools for
seeing and interpreting are thought and language. Therefore,
the paper is divided into two principal parts. The first part
provides the philosophical framework for enhancing our
geography of thought capacity to facilitate business
development. It encompasses the development of a shared
seeing and a common language to communicate the thoughts
emanating from what is seen. Following that, I make the case
for clarity and completeness in the definition of the objectives
or the things that the business initiative seeks to achieve.
Stephen Covey defines this as “first things first” in his highly popular
bestseller, 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.
The second part of the paper uses the foregoing philosophical framework
to lay out a process for embarking on entrepreneurship‐driven business
development. The process presented here is based on the Cascade
Approach® I have developed and have been using with various
organizations for the past 15 years. The process involves the crafting of a
strategic direction for the business initiative—encompassing a vision,
mission and core value—and the development of an operations plan to
achieve the vision. We define the business’ objectives within the context
of specific business initiatives, developing a process for scoping for
opportunities and crafting strategies for translating the selected
objectives into exploitable value. The execution of the resulting plan
depends on resources and this is presented and discussed in the final
section of the paper.
The foundational philosophy of the strategic processes presented in this
paper is the metaphor of the river’s ultimate purpose: the desire to
empty itself into a larger body of water. The river’s commitment to this
purpose is such that it cannot be stopped regardless the size and might of
the obstacles in its path. It may be slowed down, but in the end, it
always achieves its purpose. This thought is reflected by Margaret
Wheatley in her book Leadership and the New Science. This metaphor is
appealing because the river exhibits the primary characteristics of
successful entrepreneurial business developers: tenacity, commitment
and passion.
3
PART I: PHILOSOPHICAL FRAMEWORK
The Geography of Economic Thought
Many years ago, I was a graduate student in Nigeria, working on the
economics of small farmer agriculture. My major professor, a respected
Nigerian production economist, invited me to accompany him to a
seminar at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) one
afternoon. The seminar was on the price response of Senegalese rice
farmers and was being presented by a visiting World Bank economist.
The essence of the presenter’s story was that an increase in rice price led
to a decrease in rice supply. He concluded from this that the African
small farmer is irrational because supply should increase with price
increases.
The room, filled with many of my professors, was very quiet after the
visiting economist completed his presentation. I could not understand
their silence because there was, obviously, something drastically wrong
with the irrationality conclusion. I knew this because I have lived with
some of these small farmers. But beyond my individual anecdotal
evidence, my master’s thesis was showing similar results—a negative
supply response—but I could not believe irrationality was a reasonable
explanation.1 I think my old professor invited me because he thought the
seminar will help me.
I asked the presenter what was measured as the farmers’ response to
price. “Did you measure production, acreage, marketed surplus or did all
of these return the same sign on price?” I asked.
After a little discussion, it became obvious that the measured response
variable was marketed surplus. That is, they measured how much the
farmers offered for sale, and not how much they produced.
“African small farmers will sell less of their total production when price
goes up and vice versa,” I heard my professor say something to that
effect. This is because African small farmers have a constant demand for
money—just enough to meet their purchase needs (school uniforms and
fees, books, salt, fish, etc. The negative sign on price was not due to
irrationality of the African small farmer at all, but to the capturing of the
wrong response metric to price.
Martin Brownbridge and his colleagues provide empirical support for the
constant demand for money theory as well as the low rate of savings
1 …
August 1, 2018
Breakout Sessions
income-§108(f)(5). (does not affect other Fed. Programs where discharge … 500,000 (MFJ); $250,000 all others• Indexed• Applies at … and higher life assets to other entity with more income– …
August 21, 2012
Risk Management Strategies
from
100% to 67% (same as other 50% contracts)
34B Ag … Reserved8/21/2012
100% to 67% (same as other 50% contracts),
however … limit?
8. Did the ARPA Law meet its objectives?
9. Is there …
February 4, 2016
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
pasture lease for activities other than livestock. Moving
from … percentage of leases for purposes other than
livestock increased … had leased for activities other …
March 13, 2020
Land Use Value Research, Land Rental
Rates
Bluestem Pasture Survey. All
other results are based solely … pasture leases for activities
other than livestock (Table 3 … percentage of leases for purposes other than livestock increased …