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June 19, 2023
Ag Law Issues
and wetlands adjacent to other jurisdictional waters. In … impoundments or tributaries that meet either
the relatively permanent … “all rivers, lakes, and other waters that flow across …
June 6, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
of “new crop”
2014/15 marketing year supply‐demand and market forecasts for U.S. and World corn, grain sorghum and
other coarse grains. The USDA … ng stocks, and lower prices versus a year earlier.
A number of key grain sorghum and other feedgrain market factors in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are still
unknown, including a) final 2014 U.S. grain sorghum and corn planted acreage, b) uncertainty regarding 2014
and 2015 U.S. and World coarse grain production prospects should an El Nino‐related weather pattern occur in
mid‐to‐late 2014 as is now forecast, and c) the potential impact of ongoing and escalating geopolitical conflicts
in the Black Sea Region between major World coarse grain and wheat exporters Russia and the Ukraine.
USDA Grain Sorghum Market Forecast: The USDA projected that 2014 U.S. grain sorghum production would
be 360 million bushels (mb) – down 29 mb from 389 mb in 2013, but up from 247 mb in 2012. This forecast
was based on lower projected U.S. planted and harvested acreage of 6.681 and 5.6 million acres (ma),
respectively, and U.S. grain sorghum yields of 64.3 bu/ac – up from 59.6 and 49.8 bu/ac the previous two
years. The USDA made its initial forecasts of “new crop” MY 2014/15 total supplies (379 mb – down 25 mb
versus a year ago), exports (160 mb – down 20 mb), FSI (105 mb – up 10 mb), feed and residual (90 mb – down
20 mb), and total use (355 mb – down 30 mb), leading to projected ending stocks of 24 mb – up from 19 mb
last year. Projected % ending stocks‐to‐use of 6.76% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 4.93% for
“current” MY 2013/14. The USDA projected U.S. average grain sorghum prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 of
$3.60‐$4.30 bu/ac (midpoint = $3.95), which is down 37.6% from the record high of $6.33 in MY 2012/13.
KSU Grain Sorghum Market Forecast: KSU projections of 2013 U.S. grain sorghum production and “new crop”
MY 2014/15 supply‐demand and price scenarios are: a) “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of a 294 mb U.S.
sorghum crop, 5.0% S/U, and prices of $5.25‐$6.25 /bu; b) “Expected Production” Scenario: 60% prob. a 364
mb U.S. grain sorghum crop (equal to USDA), 7.0% S/U, and prices of $3.65‐$4.65 /bu; and c) “High
Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of a 442 mb U.S. sorghum crop, 12.2% S/U, and prices of $3.40‐$3.90 /bu.
World Coarse Grains: Forecast global coarse grain total supplies of 1,461 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are
up from 1,439 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, and 1,307 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World coarse grain
ending stocks of 210.5 mmt (16.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 203.8 mmt (16.5% S/U) in
“current” MY 2013/14, and 169.5 mmt (14.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.
Market Perspective: Price prospects for U.S. grain sorghum are still driven largely by expectations in the U.S.
corn market for “new crop” MY 2014/15, where historically large U.S. corn production and ending stocks are
forecast, along with a sizable reduction in U.S. corn and grain sorghum prices from “current” MY 2013/14.
Prospects for U.S. grain sorghum production in 2014 may have been helped measurably by recent substantial
rainfall in the U.S. central (Kansas) and southern (Oklahoma and Texas) plains, alleviating drought conditions.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The
“new crop” 2014 U.S. grain sorghum production projections are based on 2014 U.S. grain sorghum planted
acreage projections from the survey based USDA March 31st Prospective Plantings Report, with estimates of
harvested acreage and yields based on World Agricultural Outlook Board calculations and estimates.
The first comprehensive survey‐based USDA estimate of 2014 U.S. grain sorghum production will be
provided in the August 12, 2014 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production Report.
In this The “current” 2013/14 marketing year will end on May 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S.
wheat marketing year will last from June 1, 2014 through May 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 corn futures market contract has fallen sharply since the May 9th USDA
reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 corn futures
prices opened at $5.15 ½ per bushel, and traded as high as $5.22 ¾ and as low as $5.05 ¾ during the session,
before settling at $5.07 ½ – down $0.09 for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly
released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then
JULY 2014 corn futures prices have traded lower – ranging from a high of $5.06 ¼ on Monday, May 12th to a
low of $4.56 on Tuesday, June 3rd before closing at $4.58 ¼ on the same day.
July 2014 and December 2014 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
December 29, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
exports, 2.000 bb domestic crush, 140 mb seed & residual use, 4.536 bb total use, 222
mb ending stocks, 4.89% Stocks/Use, & $11.50 /bu U.S. soybean average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower U.S. Soybean Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY
2017/18 that the following outcome occurs. This scenario assumes that there were 90.281 ma planted,
99.18% harvested‐to‐planted, 89.545 ma harvested, 49.5 bu/ac average yield, 4.432 bb production, 4.758 bb
total supplies, 2.100 bb exports, 1.900 bb domestic crush, 140 mb seed & residual use, 4.136 bb total use, 622
mb ending stocks, 15.04% Stocks/Use, & $7.50 /bu U.S. soybean average price.
E. Perspectives on World Soybean Market Trends
Since 2014, World soybean market prices have been declining in response to a developing “large crop – low
price” supply‐demand regime, caused by consecutive record World soybean production years for 2014 through
2017, with large crops regularly occurring in South America and the United States. Strong demand for soybean
imports from China, Japan, and other Asian countries have supported World soybean prices.
Longer term, from MY 2007/08 to “new crop” MY 2017/18, the USDA forecasts a strong upward trend in
World soybean production (up 5.9% annually) which will have “out‐paced” the increase in World soybean use
(up 5.0% per year) if it holds true. As long as growth in World soybean production continues to outpace World
soybean usage, then World soybean prices will continue at their current “moderate” levels.
A key World soybean market issue for the first half of 2018 will be to learn or discover if weather or disease
problems in South America end up driving southern hemisphere soybean production low enough to alter the
existing “large supply – buyer’s market” situation that now exists. Unless or until production problems in the
U.S. or South America – World soybean price prospects seem destined to remain limited.
…
August 2, 2016
Breakout session presentations
Pilon Group Ethanol Plant
16,000 hectares50% owned, 50% contracted from other farmers
Ethanol Plant
1.6 mill ton of cane produces 90,000 ton sugar and 70,000 ton ethanol
Also produces this
And this
Bagasse
Fibrous bi‐product used to fuel the plantExcess energy is sold to utility companiesPlant is entirely self‐sufficient
Planting
Plant Jan‐MayGrowing season is 18 monthsPerennial – …
June 7, 2017
KFMA Research
in some years, but not in other years.
In years when they … in some years, but not in other years. Those
KFMA farmers … Required to Hit $40,000 Limit in Other States. Figure 1 shows instructions …
May 14, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
Low
April 11th
$8.55 ½ High
May 6th
$8.24 ½ Close
May 12th
Page | 3
Futures trended generally higher since the low, moving as high as $8.55 ½ on May 6th prior to the lower closes
following the May 9th USDA reports.
I‐C. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. All Wheat Acreage, Yield & Production
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. wheat total planted acreage would be 55.815 million acres (ma), down from 56.156 ma in 2013 and
55.666 ma in 2012, but up from 54.409 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). In addition, the USDA projected
2014 U.S. wheat harvested acreage to be 47.2 ma, up from 45.157 ma in 2013, down from 48.921 ma in 2012,
and up from 45.705 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. wheat is projected to be 82.2%,
up from 80.4% in 2013, but down from 87.9% in 2012 and 84.0% in 2011. The proportion of harvested‐to‐
planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of 80.4% was the lowest since 81.6% in 2006 and 76.0% in 2002.
The projected 2014 U.S. average wheat yield of 42.7 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is down from the record high
of 47.2 bu/ac in 2013, the previous records of 46.3 bu/ac in 2012 and 2010, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2011 (Table 1
and Figure 3). The USDA projected 2014 U.S. wheat production to be 1.963 billion bushels (bb) – which is
down from 2.130 bb in 2013, 2.266 bb in 2012, and 1.999 bb in 2011 (Table 1).
U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production for 2014
In its May 9th USDA Crop Production report the USDA projected U.S. winter wheat planted acreage to be
42.007 million acres (ma). These acres of winter wheat were seeded in the fall of 2013 with the intention of
harvesting them in the summer of 2014. This projection of 42.007 ma planted in the U.S. in 2014 is down from
43.090 ma in 2013, but greater than 41.224 ma in 2012, and 40.646 ma in 2011 (Figure 1). Winter wheat
harvested acreage in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to be 32.572 ma – with an implicit 2014 U.S. winter wheat
percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 77.5%. This compares to U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage in 2013
of 32.402 ma – with an implicit 2013 U.S. winter wheat percent harvested‐to‐planted acres of 75.2%. IF
extreme drought conditions continue in the U.S. Great Plains states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and
Nebraska in coming weeks and months – the five states of which make up the primary U.S. hard red winter
wheat production area – then the proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acres in 2014 could decline even further,
possibly even below the 75.2% level of 2013.
Winter wheat yields in 2014 in the U.S. are projected to be 43.1 bu/ac, down from the record high of 47.4
bu/ac in 2013. United States’ 2014 winter wheat production is forecast to be 1.403 bb, down from 1.534 bb in
2013. Of the 2014 total of 1.963 bb, 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production is forecast to be 746 million
bushels (mb), up marginally from 744 mb in 2013. U.S. 2014 soft red winter wheat production is forecast to
be 447 million bushels (mb), down from 565 mb a year ago – primarily due to lower planted acreage in 2014.
White winter wheat production in the U.S. in 2014 is projected to be 209 mb, down 7% from 2013.
U.S. Other Spring & Durum Wheat Acr …
May 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2015 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The
“current” 2014/15 marketing year for U.S. wheat will end on May 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S.
wheat marketing year will begin on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016.
In the May 12th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for wheat are
based on actual farmer surveys and field trials conducted from April 24th to May 7th by the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.03 ¾ per bushel on December 18, 2014, the CME JULY 2015 Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures contract trended sharply lower – falling to a low of $5.37 on February 2, 2015. Then
after rising to a high of $5.86 on February 17, 2015, JULY 2015 futures fell again to $5.22 ¾ on March 6th.
Another round of an upward price trend to above $5.90 in early April was followed by a decline to below $$.90
in early May, and then a rise to $5.49 ½ on May 15, 2015.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) JULY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices responded to the
release of the May 12th USDA reports by trading sideways‐to‐lower for the day. JULY 2015 HRW wheat
efutures prices opened at $5.09 on Tuesday, May 12th. The USDA reports were released at midday (i.e., 11
a.m., central time). That day prices traded as low as $5.05 ¼ and as high as $5.18 ¾ per bushel during the
session before closing $0.01 lower for the day at $5.07 ¾ /bu (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MAY 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
September 1, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… Futures
January 5, 2015 – September 1, 2015
Close = $5.14 ½ on 9/1/2015
DEC 2015 CME KS Wheat Futures
January 5, 2015 – September 1, 2015
Close = $4.82 ¼ on 9/1/2015
Page | 3
the range of a high of $5.15 ¼ on Friday, August 14th to a low of $4.78 ¼ on Monday, August 31st, before closing
at $4.82 ¼ per bushel on Tuesday, September 1st.
Similarly, CME JULY 2016 Hard Red Winter wheat futures prices opened at $5.40 ¾ on Wednesday,
August 12th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time) – and traded in a
high‐low range of a high of $5.47 ½ down to a low of $5.29 during the session before closing $0.12 lower for
the day at $5.31 ½ /bu (Figure 1). Since the August 12th USDA report, CME JULY 2016 Kansas HRW wheat
futures have trended lower, trading in the range of a high of $5.47 ½ on Friday, August 14th to a low of $5.12 ½
on Monday, August 31st, before closing at $5.14 ½ per bushel on Tuesday, September 1st.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid‐July 2011 through
early July 2014 (Figure 2). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted
dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. After moving
lower for a period of time, the index rose again to a high of 93.09 on August 5, 2015. The latest recorded value
of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 90.93 on August 21, 2015 – moving sideways to lower from the
early August 2015 high.
Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is especially significant to the U.S. wheat
market. This is because a higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it
more expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which
they would then in turn use to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S.
dollars). Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports, it is a very important one
– working against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World wheat trade.
Since early March the U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index has decline moderately – lending support longer term
prospects for U.S. wheat trade should this down trend continue. …
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… lity exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 3.118 ma
from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.5 bu/ac (vs the record
high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.153 bb – down from the record high of
15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.573 bb – down 367 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.300 bb – down 270 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.273 bb (15.90% S/U) – down from 2.370 bb (16.27% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu (range of $2.90‐$3.70). This is down $0.05 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New crop” MY 2017/18
Four alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the August 10, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.815 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.815 bb production, 16.235 bb total
supplies, 14.245 bb total use, 1.990 bb ending stocks, 13.97% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“new crop” MY 2017/18;
Page | 3
B ‐ KSU “New crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.543 bb” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.543 bb production, 15.963 bb total
supplies, 14.120 bb total use, 1.843 bb ending stocks, 13.05% S/U, & $3.75 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“new crop” MY 2017/18;
C ‐ KSU “New crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “160.0 bu/ac – 13.212 bb” Scenario (4% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 160.0 bu/ac yield, 13.212 bb production, 15.632 bb total
supplies, 13.920 bb total use, 1.712 bb ending stocks, 12.30% S/U, & $3.85 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“new crop” MY 2017/18;
D ‐ KSU “New crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #4) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.815 bb” Scenario (1%
probability) assumes: 89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.815 bb
production, 16.235 bb total supplies, 14.085 bb total use, 2.150 bb ending stocks, 15.26% S/U, & $3.45 /bu
U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2017/18;
Note: even with significant reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B, C
and D above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.370 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the
“tightness” of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,033.5 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
1.7% from the record high of 1,070.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.1% from 969.5 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,262.1 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,284.0 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,178.7 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 152.0 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 6.4% from the record
high of 162.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 27.1% from 119.6 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 200.9 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 228.6
mmt (21.7% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.5 mmt (22.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World Less China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.6 mmt
(14.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 127.3 mmt (15.5% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 102.7 mmt (13.7% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.5% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 18.9% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
These figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World overall is declining –
down from 51.9% in MY 2015/16 to 44.3% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.5% in “new crop” MY
2017/18. The deliberate actions taken by the Chinese government in recent years to reduce feedgrain
stockpiles is impacting the relative amount of corn stocks they hold in the World corn market.
…
September 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
levels $0.65 to $0.40 per bushel under DEC 2017 Corn, but still above local FSA loan rates
of $1.85‐$1.93 /bu.. At Topeka in East Central Kansas, a bid was reported of $3.14 /bu (basis = $0.40 under).
Kansas ethanol plant price bids for grain sorghum ranged from $3.14 ¼ to $3.37 ¼ , with basis at $0.35 to
$0.15 under DEC 2017 Corn futures. This higher ethanol bid relative to other Kansas cash grain sorghum …