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May 28, 2010
Energy
and E-15 is projected to meet 61% and 75%,
respectively … adopted with no changes in other selected U.S. corn
supply-use … corn, oilseeds, and many other crops remain at historically …
May 28, 2010
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
and E-15 is projected to meet 61% and 75%,
respectively … adopted with no changes in other selected U.S. corn
supply-use … corn, oilseeds, and many other crops remain at historically …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… for the remainder of 2014. This year will the Brazilian export system be able to handle large supplies of
soybeans, corn and other products in a more effic … m September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
Page | 3
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release its 2014 Acreage and June Quarterly
Stocks reports on Friday, June 30. The 2014 Acreage report will provide a survey‐based update of 2014
planted and harvested acreage of U.S. soybeans and other crops. The June Quarterly Stocks report will
provide information on the pace of U.S. soybean usage during the March‐April‐May 2014 quarter, and on the
levels of U.S. soybean stocks on June 1, 2014, and allow for better accuracy in projecting U.S. soybean
“current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks on August 31, 2014.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the June 11th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Wednesday, June
11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.61 ¾ per bushel, and
traded as high as $14.66 ½ and as low as $14.44 ½ during the session, before settling at $14.45 ½ – down $0.17
for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e.,
12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have
traded generally lower – from a high of $14.52 ¾ on June 12th, to a low of $13.93 ½ on Wednesday, June 18th
before closing at $14.09 on the same day. Prior to the June 11th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had
trended sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of
$15.21 on April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th, and then to a “higher high” of $15.36 ¾ on May 22, before
trending lower through late May and early‐mid June.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
January 1, 1998
Hedging & Options
trader would be required to meet initial
futures market margin … educational purposes. All other rights reserved. In each … insurance,
option costs can be added to other production and
marketing …
Price Risk Publications
trader would be required to meet initial
futures market margin … educational purposes. All other rights reserved. In each … insurance,
option costs can be added to other production and
marketing …
April 29, 2019
Land Buying and Valuing
Valuation
Department) and others for their assistance with … court-ordered sales, or other transactions that may keep … market is insufficient to meet the supply available. Where …
December 16, 2020
Non‐business capital losses for that year
Other NOLs
Find ways to increase income if facing NOLs`
Kansas … Cash Basis Farmers Have Many Tools to Manage Income and Tax Liability
Don’t Wait
Meet ahead of time
Many tools requite pre‐planning
… Some are better than others
Does your preparer understand farm and ranch taxation
…
May 16, 2022
Ag Law Issues
unreasonable interferences by others; and (2) landowners must … farmers and ranchers who meet the legal requirements a … about this publication and others, visit AgManager.info.
K-State …
September 21, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
Futures
Jan. 21, 2015 – Sept. 18, 2015
Close = $5.16 on 9/18/2015
DEC 2015 CME KS Wheat Futures
Jan. 21, 2015 – Sept. 18, 2015
Close = $4.82 ¼ on 9/18/2015
Page | 3
(Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 Kansas HRW wheat futures first traded higher before trending lower –
but still at higher levels than prior to the September 11th USDA reports. DEC 2015 Kansas HRW wheat has
traded in a range of a high of $4.98 ¼ on Monday, September 14th to a low of $4.78 ¼ on Thursday, September
17th, before closing at $4.82 ¼ per bushel on Friday, September 18th.
Similarly, CME JULY 2016 Hard Red Winter wheat futures prices opened at $5.10 ½ on Friday, September
11th – the day of the release of the USDA reports at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time) – and traded in a low‐
high range of a high of $5.02 ¼ up to a high of $5.16 during the session before closing $0.05 higher for the day
at $5.15 ½ /bu (Figure 1). Since the September 11th USDA report, CME JULY 2016 Kansas HRW wheat futures
have trended lower, trading in a high‐low range of a high of $5.30 on Tuesday, September 12th down to a low
of $5.12 ¼ on Thursday, September 17th, before closing at $5.16 per bushel on Thursday, September 18th.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid‐July 2011 through
early July 2014 (Figure 2). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade weighted
dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. After moving
lower for a period of time, the index rose again to a high of 93.09 on August 5, 2015. The latest recorded value
of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 91.36 on Friday, September 11, 2015 – moving sideways to lower
from the early August 2015 high.
Figure 2. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index (Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, FRED)
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is especially significant to the U.S. wheat
market. A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more
expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they
would then in turn use to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars).
Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports, it is a very important one –
working against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive alternative export seller in World wheat trade. …
February 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
g.
The USDA projects that foreign wheat supplies are more than adequate to “mitigate” shortfalls in 2014 U.S.
hard red winter wheat production in the Central and Southern plains states again in MY 2014/15 as in MY
2013/14. Also, no other major production problems in competing World wheat exporting countries have yet
emerged to the degree that the “large crop‐over‐supply” situation in World wheat markets has been changed.
However, there are developing concerns about wheat export supply availability from the Black Sea region, and
the ongoing possibility of crop problems developing among major World wheat producers / exporters. United
States’ wheat exports have been reduced by a recent strong positive trend in the U.S. dollar.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “current crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA maintained its projection of lower 2014
U.S. wheat production, reduced total use, increased ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 vs a year ago. The USDA’s projected “current crop” MY 2014/15 scenario is for a
2.026 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 2.776 bb total supplies (down 20 million bushels or ‘mb’ from
January on reduced imports), 900 mb exports (down 25 mb), 2.084 bb total use (down 25 mb), 692 mb ending
stocks (up 5 mb), 33.2% ending stocks‐to‐use (vs 32.6% last month), and a forecast U.S. price of $6.00 /bu
(range of $5.85 to $6.15) – compared to $5.90‐$6.30 ($6.10 midpoint) from January.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “next crop” MY 2015/16: KSU projections of “next crop” MY 2015/16 supply‐
demand balances and prices are represented in two scenarios, either “Trend Yield” or “Short Yield” scenarios,
which are as follows. A) “Trend Yield” Scenario: 60% prob. of 54.830 million acres (ma) planted, 46.105 ma
harvested, 45.9 bu/ac trend yield, 2.116 billion bu. (bb) production, 2.958 bb total supplies, 1.050 bb exports,
2.260 bb total use, 698 mb end stocks, 30.9% S/U, $6.20 /bu U.S. average price. B) “Short Yield” Scenario: 40%
prob. of 54.830 ma planted, 46.105 ma harvested, 43.5 bu/ac trend yield, 2.006 bb production, 2.858 bb total
supplies, 1.025 bb exports, 2.224 bb total use, 634 mb end stocks, 28.5% S/U, $6.45 /bu U.S. average price.
The key assumption in these KSU projections is that there will be a moderate recovery in U.S. wheat exports.
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 912.5 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from
891.6 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 855.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “current
crop” MY 2014/15 of 197.9 mmt (27.7% S/U) are up from 187.5 mmt (26.6% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from
174.5 mmt (25.8% S/U) in MY 2012/13. For perspective, these figures can be compared to the historic World
wheat ending stocks and ending stocks‐to‐use minimums of 129.7 mmt and 21.1% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. February USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On February 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The “current
crop” 2014/15 U.S. wheat marketing year will last from June 1, 2014 through May 31, 2015, with the “new
crop” 2015/16 marketing year beginning on June 1, 2015.
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $8.62 per bushel on May 6, 2014 for the MARCH 2015 contract, Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures trended sharply lower through the later part of September‐early October – with the
MARCH 2015 contract trading as low as $5.54 per bushel on October 1, 2014. Following the early October low
the MARCH 2015 contract trended higher through October – up to the $6.16‐$6.17 range before trading lower
again in early November (down to $5.70 ¼ on 11/10/2014) – after which wheat futures markets trended
higher. On Wednesday, December 18th CME Hard Red Winter Wheat futures traded as high as $7.05 ¾ per
bushel – followed then by a downtrend in prices through late January‐early February 2015, with MARCH 2015
Kansas hard red winter wheat futures declining as low as $5.33 on February 2nd.
After a $0.24 ½ /bu move higher on February 3rd, MARCH 2015 Hard Red Winter Wheat futures prices
responded to the release of the February 10th USDA reports by trading lower for the day. MARCH 2015 HRW
wheat efutures prices opened at $5.61 ¾ on Tuesday, February 10th. The USDA reports were released at
midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time). Prices declined as high as $5.63 ½ and as low as $5.52 ¾ per bushel during
the session before closing $0.09 ½ lower for the day at $5.54 /bu (Figure 1). Since then, MARCH 2015 wheat
traded in an essentially sideways pattern until February 17‐18, when 1) weather and crop development
concerns in the U.S., and 2) concerns about Black Sea geopolitical conflicts and future availability of wheat
exports from that region of the World, caused prices to go as high as $5.82 ¼ before settling at $5.62 ¼ on
2/17, and then to trade as high as $5.70 and as low as $5.46 ¾ on 2/18, before closing at $5.48 for the day.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …