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October 29, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is especially significant to the U.S. wheat
market. A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more
expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they
would then in turn use to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars).
Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports, it is a very important one which
currently works against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive export seller in World wheat trade. …
May 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
or above in coming months
appear limited – unless unexpected, substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in either
the U.S. or in other major coarse grain produc … … orn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through late June 2015, when the CME SEPTEMBER 2015 corn contract will assume
market leadership. Local basis adjustments are currently being made off JULY 2015 corn futures for spot cash
corn and grain sorghum price bids in North America as well as other World grain markets. Th …
March 18, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
est level since MY 2009/10. Wheat prices in the U.S. are projected at a four
year low due to reduced U.S. exports and domestic livestock wheat feeding, and growing ending stocks.
No other major production problems in competing World wheat exporting countries have yet emerged to the
degree that the prevailing “large crop‐over‐supply” situation in World wheat markets has changed. However,
there are continued concerns about potential wheat export supply availability from the Black Sea region, and
the ongoing possibility of crop problems developing in 2015 among major World wheat producers / exporters.
United States’ wheat exports have been limited by a recent strong positive trend in the U.S. dollar.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2014/15: The USDA maintained its projection of lower 2014
U.S. wheat production, reduced total use, increased ending stocks and % stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 vs a year ago. The USDA’s projected “current crop” MY 2014/15 scenario is for a
2.026 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop, 2.776 bb total supplies, 900 million bushel (mb) exports, 2.085
bb total use, 691 mb ending stocks, 33.1% ending stocks‐to‐use, and a forecast U.S. price of $6.00 /bu ($5.90
to $6.10) – compared to $6.87 in MY 2013/14, $7.77 (record) in MY 2012/13, and $7.24 in MY 2011/12.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: At the 2015 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, the
USDA projected that supply‐demand balances and prices in “next crop” MY 2015/16 would be as follows: 55.5
million acres (ma) planted, 47.0 ma harvested, 45.2 bu/ac yield, 2.125 bb production, 2.966 bb total supplies,
975 mb exports, 2.204 bb total use, 762 mb end stocks, 34.6% S/U, and a $5.10 /bu U.S. average price.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2015/16: KSU projections of “next crop” MY 2015/16 supply‐
demand balances and prices are represented in two alternative “Trend Yield” and “Short Yield” scenarios as
follows. A) “Trend Yield” Scenario: 60% prob. of 55.500 ma planted, 46.668 ma harvested, 45.9 bu/ac trend
yield, 2.142 bb production, 2.983 bb total supplies, 1.050 bb exports, 2.254 bb total use, 729 mb end stocks,
32.3% S/U, and $5.75 /bu U.S. average price. B) “Short Yield” Scenario: 40% prob. of 55.500 ma planted,
46.668 ma harvested, 43.5 bu/ac low yield, 2.030 bb production, 2.876 bb total supplies, 1.025 bb exports,
2.224 bb total use, 652 mb end stocks, 29.3% S/U, and $6.25 /bu U.S. avg. price. Key factors in these KSU
forecasts are the levels of U.S. wheat yields and production, and a moderate recovery in U.S. wheat exports.
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 912.3 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from
891.7 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 855.4 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat ending stocks in “current
crop” MY 2014/15 of 197.7 mmt (27.7% S/U) are up from 187.5 mmt (26.6% S/U) in MY 2013/14, and from
175.6 mmt (25.8% S/U) in MY 2012/13. For perspective, these figures can be compared to the historic World
wheat ending stocks and ending stocks‐to‐use minimums of 129.7 mmt and 21.1% S/U in MY 2007/08.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. March USDA Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On March 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The
U.S. wheat “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year began on June 1, 2014 and will last through May 31, 2015,
with the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year beginning on June 1, 2015.
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.07 ¼ per bushel on December 18, 2014, the CME MAY 2015 Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures contract has trended sharply lower – falling first to a low of $5.35 on February 2, 2015.
Then after rising to a high of $5.83 ¼ on February 17, 2015, MAY 2015 futures fell again to $5.16 ¼ on March
5th. CME MAY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices responded to the release of the March 10th USDA
reports by trading higher for the day. MAY 2015 HRW wheat efutures prices opened at $5.30 ¾ on Tuesday,
March 10th. The USDA reports were released at midday (i.e., 11 a.m., central time). That day prices traded as
low as $5.22 ½ and as high as $5.39 ¼ per bushel during the session before closing $0.05 ½ higher for the day
at $5.36 /bu (Figure 1).
Since the March 10th USDA report, CME MAY 2015 Kansas HRW wheat futures have traded in a generally
higher but increasingly volatile pattern due to a) weather and winter wheat development concerns in the U.S.
central and southern plains region, b) volatility in the U.S. dollar – impacting U.S. wheat export prospects, and
c) repositioning of futures traders. Although concerns about Black Sea geopolitical conflicts and future
availability of wheat exports from that region of the World are legitimate, they have at least not yet tangibly
affected the World wheat export trade to the degree that U.S. wheat exports and prices have been positively
affected. Recently, CME MAY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat has risen to a high of $5.57 ½ on Monday, March 16th,
before closing at $5.42 ¾ on Tuesday, March 17th.
Figure 1. MAY 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
April 1, 2010
Pork Quality Grading System and Wholesale Pork Price Reporting
Conversely, the propor-
tions of other primal cuts (loins, butts … mandatory reporting, several
other considerations are worth … reporting system in place is meeting
its intended goals. This …
April 1, 2010
Conversely, the propor-
tions of other primal cuts (loins, butts … mandatory reporting, several
other considerations are worth … reporting system in place is meeting
its intended goals. This …
April 13, 2020
Ag Law Issues
estates, corporations, and other noncorporate tax filers … are not prescribed do
not meet the definition. Likewise … respect to menstruation or other genital-tract secretions …
April 13, 2020
Ag Law Issues
distinction between hemp and other cannabis plants. They were … manner available to farmers of other commodities. Indeed, the … than is
the production of other crops due to the effect of …
May 23, 2024
Ag Law Issues
veterinary inspection or other documentation.
Note: The … official identification and that meet this
requirement with eartags … and accompanying ICVIs and other paper
documentation work …
October 16, 2020
Animal ID & Traceability
14.2%
Seedstock 17 5.4%
Other 10 3.2%
Total 317 100.0 … Carcass basis 12 3.8%
Other 16 5.1%
Total 316 100.0 … buyer orally 100 47.8%
Other 11 5.3%
Total 209 100.0 …
May 28, 2010
Energy
and E-15 is projected to meet 61% and 75%,
respectively … adopted with no changes in other selected U.S. corn
supply-use … corn, oilseeds, and many other crops remain at historically …