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August 15, 2016
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flows that are not able to meet debt obligations. The
income … The law of rights between debtors and their creditors and taxation of transactions between them is highly complex and complicated. The tax laws and other legal matters by this pr … of facts and circumstances that makes it impossible to give solutions other than in a general guidel …
Summary Book - All Counties
…............................................................................. 43-59
Can My Farm Meet the Test? …...................................................................................................................................60
Analysis … Income output.
Income for other livestock and crop items …
March 20, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. March 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees for
Wheat, Feedgrains, Rice and Oilseeds released their GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR 2014 at the 2014
Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday, February 21st. This is the first formal USDA projection of U.S. wheat
supply‐demand factors and prices for the 2014/15 marketing year based on current 2014 market information.
The USDA had released 10 year Agricultural Baseline projections on February 13th that included a projection
for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with future U.S. grain supply‐demand and price projections
through MY 2023/24. However, those initial baseline estimates were based on grain market information
available in November 2013, and were adjusted by the USDA in its February 21st Agricultural Outlook
Conference projections.
On March 10, 2014 the USDA released its monthly March 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) report – containing information of importance to U.S. wheat market price prospects. The
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its monthly March Crop Production report
which contained no changes in projected production of U.S. wheat for 2013 or previous years. If it follows past
methods, the USDA will not make further adjustments in its projection for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and
prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 until it releases the September 30th NASS Small Grains Summary report.
However, grain market information concerning a) “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. wheat usage, ending stocks,
and prices, and b) foreign grain supply‐demand prospects, has an impact on prospects for U.S. wheat supply‐
demand and prices during the “next year” 2014/15 marketing year. That said, in this article the USDA’s U.S.
wheat supply‐demand and price prospects for the coming “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year were not
adjusted because of the lack of changes the supply‐demand balance sheet in “current” MY 2013/14 in the
March 10th WASDE report.
I‐B. Kansas City Wheat Futures Trends Since the March 10th USDA Reports
Wheat futures contract prices have been trending sharply higher since late January due to a) geopolitical
conflicts in the Black Sea Region between Ukraine and Russia that could hinder or diminish that region’s wheat
and coarse grains exports ‐ and ultimately boost U.S. wheat export prospects, and b) declining U.S. hard and
soft red winter wheat production prospects. Although the information in the March WASDE report on U.S. and
foreign wheat supply‐demand prospects was largely neutral to the market, these other factors have influenced
wheat market prices in recent weeks.
“Current” or “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) MAY 2014 Kansas Hard
Red Winter Wheat efutures prices have been trending up since a low of $6.05 per bushel on Thursday,
January 30th. On Monday, March 10th – the day of the March USDA WASDE report – MAY 2014 KC wheat
futures opened trade at $7.21 per bushel, and traded in a low‐high range of $7.09 to $7.25 during the session
before closing down $0.10 per bushel over the previous day’s close at $7.11 ¼ /bu (Figure 1). Since then MAY
2014 KC Wheat futures prices have traded in the range of a low of $7.07 on March 11th, up to a high of $7.91 ¾
on Wednesday, March 19th – closing near the high end of this range at $7.88 ¼ that same day.
“Next crop” or “new crop” JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices also initially responded negatively
to the information in the March 10th USDA reports. JULY 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices
opened at $7.14 ½ on March 10th, and traded in a low‐high range of $7.02 ¼ to $7.18 ¼ during the session
Page | 3
before closing $0.10 ½ lower at $7.04 ½ /bu (Figure 1). Since then JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat efutures
prices have traded in the range of a low of $7.01 ¼ on February 11th up to a high of $7.86 ½ on March 19th,
before closing at $7.83 on that same trading day. Electronic July 2014 Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat
futures prices have been trending sharply higher since a low of $5.99 on January 29th.
Figure 1. MAY 2014 & JULY 2014 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)
…
April 30, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
lihood of corn futures prices rallying above say $5.00 before spring planting appear
limited – unless unexpected, substantial crop production or export availability problems occur in other major
coarse grain produ … Reports & “Current Crop” MY 2014/15 Projections
On April 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2012/13, 2013/14, as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing years. The
2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015. In its upcoming 12th WASDE report the
USDA will release projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for corn, grain sorghum, wheat,
soybeans and other major crops.
I‐B. C …
July 21, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… The development of volatile weather patterns in 2015 such as “El Nino” may cause production problems for
corn and other coarse grains in parts o … out a change in the current World‐wide “large crop – low price” market scenario faced in coarse grain and
other agricultural markets. …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… ontinuing threat exists of U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that
could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events could
provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets which could in turn impact grain prices in either
direction depending on the circumstances and the countries involved and their role in global corn export trade.
4. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
With the USDA’s continuing projection of 2017 U.S. corn plantings at 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down
3.118 ma from 2016), harvested acres of 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), and projected yields of 169.9 bu/ac (vs
the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.184 bb – down from the
record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.585 bb – down 355 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.250 bb – down 340 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.235 bb (16.38% S/U) – down from 2.350 bb (16.11% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu (range of $2.80‐$3.60). This is down $0.15 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.35 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 60% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
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5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the September 12, 2017 WASDE report for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330 bb total
supplies, 14.215 bb total use, 2.115 bb ending stocks, 14.88% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “164.0 bu/ac – 13.655 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 13.655 bb production, 16.055 bb total
supplies, 14.095 bb total use, 1.960 bb ending stocks, 13.91% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard” Scenario #3) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.930 bb” Scenario (???% prob.)
assumes: 90.753 ma planted, 83.261 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.930 bb production, 16.330
bb total supplies, 13.935 bb total use, 2.395 bb ending stocks, 17.19% S/U, & $3.00 /bu U.S. corn average;
Note: even with moderate reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in the KSU Scenarios A, B
and C above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.350 bb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness”
of corn supply‐demand balances, and hinders any upward price responses.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,032.6 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.6% from the record high of 1,071.2 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 6.5% from 969.6 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,259.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,285.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,179.2 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 150.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 8.9% from the record
high of 165.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 25.8% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 202.5 mmt (19.2% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 213.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.2 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.1 mmt (13.4% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 23% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 19.2% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.1%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
…
November 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
… during the MY 2011/12 through MY 2014/15 period.
CommentaryKSU: These results show that while aggregate World wheat ending stocks have declined
moderately, “under the surface” of those numbers, wheat stocks are projected to be “extremely tight” among
World exporters – much tighter than for the rest of the World wheat market. Tightening wheat stocks and %
S/U among the top 7 wheat exporters is likely to eventually be a positive factor for U.S. wheat market price
prospects ‐ since it could lead to larger U.S. wheat exports in the last quarter of “new crop” MY 2018/19 (i.e.,
during March‐May 2019).
In other words, a significant incr …
December 1, 2016
Financial Management
complicated. The tax laws and other legal matters discussed in … impossible to give solutions other than in a general guideline … accounting
assistance or other expert assistance is required …
August 29, 2011
Research Papers and Presentations
Publications and public meetings by the Department
of Agricultural … age, sexual orientation, or other non-merit
reasons … applicability to farms in other regions (Theil
1954; Lee …
August 29, 2011
Energy
Publications and public meetings by the Department
of Agricultural … age, sexual orientation, or other non-merit
reasons … applicability to farms in other regions (Theil
1954; Lee …