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July 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
s exist to
more than “cover” or “mitigate” 2014 U.S. hard red winter wheat production shortfalls in the Central and
Southern plains states, and that no other major threats to World w … ent – such as substantially lower wheat
production in North America or other major wheat producing regions of the World, or geopolitically‐driven
disruptions to trade World wheat markets in such places as the Middle East or the Black Sea region. Unless or
until such disruptive events as these would occur, World wheat market prospects are pointing to steady‐to‐
lower World wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: Compared to a year earlier, the USDA projected
lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced wheat usage, an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks and %
stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15. The USDA’s projected “new crop” market scenario
is: 56.5 million acres (ma) planted, 46.2 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested‐to‐planted acres, 43.1 bu/ac yield (up
from 42.3 bu/ac a month ago), a 1.992 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop (up 50 million bushels or ‘mb’),
2.741 bb total supplies (up 46 mb), 900 mb exports (down 25 mb), 2.081 bb total use (down 40 mb), 660 mb
ending stocks (up 86 mb), 31.7% ending stocks‐to‐use (up from 27.1%), and $6.60 average price per bu. (range
of $6.00 to $7.20) – down from $7.00 /bu.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐
demand balances and prices are as follows: a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 65% prob. of 46.2 ma harvested,
43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 900 mb exports, 2.081 bb total
use, 660 mb ending stocks, 31.7% S/U, & $6.10 /bu; b) “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 45.4 ma
harvested, low yields of 41.1 bu/ac (both harvested acres and yield lower than USDA), 1.868 bb 2014 U.S.
wheat production, 2.628 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 890 mb exports, 2.061 bb total use, 567 mb ending stocks,
27.5% S/U, & $6.55 /bu; and c) “Expected Production – Higher Exports” Scenario: 15% prob. of 46.2 ma
harvested, yields of 43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 1.050 bb
exports (up 150 mb from USDA forecast), 2.231 bb total use, 510 mb ending stocks, 22.9% S/U, & $7.50 /bu.
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 889.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally
from 889.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 854.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat
ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 189.5 mmt (27.0% S/U) are up from 184.3 mmt (26.1% S/U) in MY
2013/14, and from 175.6 mmt (25.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.
For market perspective these levels of World wheat stocks need to be analyzed relative to the historic World
wheat stocks minimum of 129.4 mmt (21.0% S/U) in MY 2007/08. Year‐over‐year increases are projected for
wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 for Argentina (+4.5 mmt), Brazil (+0.4 mmt), and Russia (+1.0 mmt),
with decreases forecast for the U.S. (‐7.7 mmt), Australia (‐0.5 mmt), Canada (‐1.5 mmt), the EU (‐2.5 mmt),
India (‐2.4 mmt), Kazakhstan (‐2.4 mmt), and Ukraine (‐0.5 mmt). …
June 28, 2018
Hedging & Options
…
In our interviews for this study, we visited with some 40 individuals representing about 30
different organizations or firms. Information collected included documenting the specific nature
of strengths, weaknesses, and concerns with current delivery methods; exploring how various
modifications or alternatives to executing delivery might occur; and assessing the strengths and
weaknesses of new alternative delivery methods. Furthermore, because the topic of discussion
naturally led to other relevant issues, we leveraged this project to provide information gleaned
on related issues. Each group of stakeholders we visited with had a unique perspective because
of their role in the industry, the location of their operations, structural character of their
business, and how they utilize live cattle futures. Every individual we visited with had
considerable experience in some aspect of live cattle contract design, hedging, speculating,
making or taking delivery, marketing services, market surveillance and regulation, market
consulting, or contract management. The amount of thought and consideration these
individuals had given this topic were a testament to its importance to the industry.
Data from USDA AMS, CME Group, and CFTC were collected and utilized to assess issues
relative to deliverable supplies, deliverable capacity, pricing systems, deliveries, microstructure
of contract trade volume, and basis. Published literature was reviewed and utilized to
document the existing body of published works relative to issues associated with the live cattle
contract.
…
June 8, 2016
KFMA Research
profitability of technology in other studies. Besides Olson and … few farms
have abandoned other technologies such as GPS … Precision
Agriculture. Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural …
August 1, 2012
Certification of Meat Attributes
Regional Project: W-2177 meeting in Denver, CO on July 24-25 … tenderness claims and perhaps other product claims besides
tenderness … dorsi (ribeye or loin eye) meets the MTTV
requirement eight …
September 26, 2022
Industry Economics & Trade
trade of cattle, hides, and other aspects of
the broader … the broader industry to other projects. This project outlines … consider spillover impacts on other sectors such as allied industries …
October 24, 2025
Marketing Publications
coal, iron ore, grain, and other commodities.
Because dry … Premier He Lifeng is slated to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary … autos and exemptions
for other strategic imports, while …
November 24, 2023
Management
but poses challenges for others.
Businesses and governments … these impacts can affect other businesses. For example … indirect business taxes + other property type income
• …
July 1, 2010
Animal ID & Traceability
educational purposes. All other rights reserved. In
each … animal health,
marketing, and other purposes, the need is evident … attractive to producers,
while meeting the goals for which they …
March 20, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. March 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees for
Wheat, Feedgrains, Rice and Oilseeds released their GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR 2014 at the 2014
Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday, February 21st. This is the first formal USDA projection of U.S. wheat
supply‐demand factors and prices for the 2014/15 marketing year based on current 2014 market information.
The USDA had released 10 year Agricultural Baseline projections on February 13th that included a projection
for the “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year, along with future U.S. grain supply‐demand and price projections
through MY 2023/24. However, those initial baseline estimates were based on grain market information
available in November 2013, and were adjusted by the USDA in its February 21st Agricultural Outlook
Conference projections.
On March 10, 2014 the USDA released its monthly March 2014 World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) report – containing information of importance to U.S. wheat market price prospects. The
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its monthly March Crop Production report
which contained no changes in projected production of U.S. wheat for 2013 or previous years. If it follows past
methods, the USDA will not make further adjustments in its projection for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and
prices for “next crop” MY 2014/15 until it releases the September 30th NASS Small Grains Summary report.
However, grain market information concerning a) “current” MY 2013/14 U.S. wheat usage, ending stocks,
and prices, and b) foreign grain supply‐demand prospects, has an impact on prospects for U.S. wheat supply‐
demand and prices during the “next year” 2014/15 marketing year. That said, in this article the USDA’s U.S.
wheat supply‐demand and price prospects for the coming “next crop” 2014/15 marketing year were not
adjusted because of the lack of changes the supply‐demand balance sheet in “current” MY 2013/14 in the
March 10th WASDE report.
I‐B. Kansas City Wheat Futures Trends Since the March 10th USDA Reports
Wheat futures contract prices have been trending sharply higher since late January due to a) geopolitical
conflicts in the Black Sea Region between Ukraine and Russia that could hinder or diminish that region’s wheat
and coarse grains exports ‐ and ultimately boost U.S. wheat export prospects, and b) declining U.S. hard and
soft red winter wheat production prospects. Although the information in the March WASDE report on U.S. and
foreign wheat supply‐demand prospects was largely neutral to the market, these other factors have influenced
wheat market prices in recent weeks.
“Current” or “old crop” 2013/14 marketing year Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) MAY 2014 Kansas Hard
Red Winter Wheat efutures prices have been trending up since a low of $6.05 per bushel on Thursday,
January 30th. On Monday, March 10th – the day of the March USDA WASDE report – MAY 2014 KC wheat
futures opened trade at $7.21 per bushel, and traded in a low‐high range of $7.09 to $7.25 during the session
before closing down $0.10 per bushel over the previous day’s close at $7.11 ¼ /bu (Figure 1). Since then MAY
2014 KC Wheat futures prices have traded in the range of a low of $7.07 on March 11th, up to a high of $7.91 ¾
on Wednesday, March 19th – closing near the high end of this range at $7.88 ¼ that same day.
“Next crop” or “new crop” JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat futures prices also initially responded negatively
to the information in the March 10th USDA reports. JULY 2014 CBOT Kansas City wheat efutures prices
opened at $7.14 ½ on March 10th, and traded in a low‐high range of $7.02 ¼ to $7.18 ¼ during the session
Page | 3
before closing $0.10 ½ lower at $7.04 ½ /bu (Figure 1). Since then JULY 2014 Kansas City wheat efutures
prices have traded in the range of a low of $7.01 ¼ on February 11th up to a high of $7.86 ½ on March 19th,
before closing at $7.83 on that same trading day. Electronic July 2014 Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat
futures prices have been trending sharply higher since a low of $5.99 on January 29th.
Figure 1. MAY 2014 & JULY 2014 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade)
…
July 30, 2015
Animal Well-Being
animal sold, while the other half of respondents were … members are no longer just meeting in the grocery store
meat … meat section, they are also meeting at the voting booth. Recently …