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February 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
heir highest level in 14 years (since MY 2001/02). For perspective, the 34‐
year low in World wheat ending stocks of 128.7 mmt and at least a 57 year low in percent ending stocks‐to‐use
of 20.8% S/U both occurred in MY 2007/08, the last major World wheat “short crop” marketing year.
There are ongoing concerns in the World wheat market about a) potential wheat production problems and
supply prospects in Europe, northwestern Africa, parts of the Black Sea region, south Asia/India, and parts of
Argentina, b) geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that could impact commodity
markets, and c) spillover impacts into grains and other commodities from volatile World economies, and
financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation currently existing in World and
U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate also is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports and
overall usage, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and stocks‐to‐use, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA lowered projected U.S. wheat exports
and raised ending stocks by the same amounts in its supply‐demand forecasts for U.S. wheat in the “current
crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million
bushels (mb) of exports (down 25 mb), 1.958 bb of total use (down 25 mb), 966 mb ending stocks (up 25 mb),
and 49.34% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 47.45% in January to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10).
A price range of $4.90‐$5.10 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $5.00 /bu – the lowest U.S.
wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA
provided a forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand for “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning June 1,
2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 53.0 million acres (ma) – down 1.644 ma from 2015.
Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 44.9 ma would be down 2.194 ma vs 2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S.
wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.060
bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with KSU‐adjusted MY 2016/17 total supplies of 3.151 bb (up from 2.924 bb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16). With “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.168 bb, and KSU‐adjusted ending
stocks of 983 mb (45.34% S/U), U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be $4.40 /bu – down from $5.00
/bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16.
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KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Compared to the USDA forecast, Kansas State
University (KSU) forecasts for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are a combination of lower 2016 wheat planted and
harvested acres, trendline yields, lower production and total supplies, lower exports and feed use, higher
ending stocks and percent ending stocks‐to‐use, and even lower prices. The KSU forecast is based on 2016 U.S.
wheat plantings of 50.695 ma – down 3.949 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 43.690 ma would
be down 3.404 ma vs 2015. With projected trendline yields of 46.0 bu/ac (nearly equal to the USDA’s 2016
forecast), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.010 bb (down from 2.052 bb in 2015), with MY
2016/17 total supplies equaling 3.101 bb (down 50 mb from the USDA projection).
With forecasts of exports at 850 mb (down 50 mb from USDA but still up from 775 mb in “current crop” MY
2015/16) and feed and residual use of 150 mb (down 75 mb from USDA but equal to “current crop” MY
2015/16), “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.043 bb is forecast, and projected ending stocks of 1.058 bb
(51.79% S/U). Based on historic price relationships, U.S. wheat prices are projected to be $4.25 /bu – down
$0.25 from the USDA’s projection of $4.40 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17, and down from $5.00 /bu in
“current crop” MY 2015/16, $5.99 in MY 2014/15, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, and the record $7.77 in MY 2012/13.
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. February 9, 2016 USDA WASDE Report
On February 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – with U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and
price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat runs from 6/1/2015 through 5/31/2016.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH & JULY 2016 Futures
Since a low of $4.51 ¾ on January 4, 2016, MARCH 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $4.81 ¾ on January 13th, but have
since declined to a close of $4.42 ¼ on Tuesday, February 9th, and $4.42 ½ on Friday, February 12th
before closing at $4.44 ¼ on that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MARCH & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
June 1, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ure economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy,
and other commodity markets, b) U.S. farmer resistance to selling at low late‐May and June 2016 cash corn
prices, and c) concerns about possible “El Nino” or “El Nino‐La Nina transition”‐ related weather patterns in
spring‐summer 2016 with an eye toward their possible negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each
still impact corn market prices through summer‐fall 2016. However, farmer resistance to “old crop” cash sales
will be forced to give way in coming months as the 2016 U.S. corn crop develops and approaches harvest in
coming months. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock
feeding and bioenergy users – leading to strong domestic and foreign feedgrain usage and providing
underlying support for U.S. corn exports. In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S.
dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop have been significant limiting factors for U.S.
corn exports – although the U.S. dollar has been trending lower since early February 2016 – coinciding with
moderately improved U.S. corn exports.
USDA Estimate for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn supply‐demand
balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and total supplies
of 15.387 bb for MY 2015/16 (up 5 million bushels or ‘mb’ due to increased imports). Total use is projected to
be 13.585 bb (up 64 mb). Ethanol use was projected to be 5.250 bb, with non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and
Industrial (FSI) use of 1.360 bb (down 11 mb), exports of 1.725 bb (up 75 mb), and feed and residual use of
5.250 bb. Ending stocks are forecast to be down 59 mb to 1.803 bb (13.27% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 –
up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn
average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.50‐$3.70 /bu. ($3.60 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA provided it’s first WASDE report forecast “new crop”
MY 2016/17 forecast for U.S. corn – relying on the USDA March 31st Prospective Planting report planted
acreage forecast and a number of other harvested acreage and yield assumptions. Projected 2016 U.S. corn
plantings equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately 85.893
ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is
projected to be a record 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 14.120 bb (record high), and projected ending stocks of
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2.153 bb (15.24% S/U) – up from 1.803 bb (13.27% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – U.S. corn prices are
projected by the USDA to be in the range of $3.05‐$3.65 (midpoint = $3.35 /bu) – with the midpoint of $3.35
being down from the $3.60 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 40%
likelihood of occurring by Kansas State University.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 ma downward adjustment in 2016
U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report. A) KSU “trend yield”
scenario (30% probability) assumes the following for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma
harvested, 164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.908 bb production, 15.751 bb total supplies, 13.637 bb total use, 2.114
bb ending stocks, 15.50% S/U, & $3.30 /bu U.S. corn average price; B) KSU “moderate drought” scenario (20%
prob.) assumes 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac yield, 13.358 bb production, 15.206 bb
total supplies, 13.497 bb total use, 1.709 bb ending stocks, 12.66% S/U, & $3.75 /bu U.S. corn price; and C)
KSU “serious drought” scenario (10% prob.) assumes 92.601 ma planted, 84.545 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac
yield, 12.682 bb production, 14.535 bb total supplies, 13.257 bb total use, 1.278 bb ending stocks, 9.6% S/U, &
$4.40 /bu U.S. corn price.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,011.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,176.7 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.7 mmt in MY
2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 207.0 mmt (20.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up
from 207.87 mmt (21.5% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from 207.88 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY
2014/15.
…
November 21, 2012
USDA METSS Project
1.60
Brong‐Ahafo Forest Savanna Transition 6,573 4,020 1.64
Central … Information sources include Asare (2000), WARDA (2007) and Ghana Ministry of F … …
April 25, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
such as a) economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other
commodity markets, b) U.S. farmer resistance to selling at low late‐April and May 2016 cash corn prices, and c)
concerns about possible “El Nino” or “El Nino‐La Nina transition”‐ related weather patterns in spring‐summer
2016 with an eye toward their possible negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each still impact corn
market prices through summer‐fall 2016. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S.
and Foreign livestock feeding and bioenergy users – leading to strong domestic and foreign feedgrain usage
and providing underlying support for U.S. corn exports. In the “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high
value of the U.S. dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop have been significant limiting
factors for U.S. corn exports – although the U.S. dollar has been trending lower in recent weeks.
USDA Estimate for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn supply‐demand
balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and total supplies
of 15.382 bb for MY 2015/16. Total use is projected to be 13.521 bb (down 24 million bushels or ‘mb’) Ethanol
use was projected to be 5.250 bb (up 25 mb), with non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use of 1.371 bb
(up 1 mb), exports of 1.650 bb, and feed and residual use of 5.250 bb (down 25 mb). Ending stocks are
forecast to be up 25 mb to 1.862 bb (13.77% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 – up from 1.731 bb (12.6% S/U) in
“old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn average cash prices are forecast to
be in the range of $3.40‐$3.70 /bu. ($3.55 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY
2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
Adjusted USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: An adjusted version of the USDA’s “next crop” MY
2016/17 forecast for U.S. corn is presented here, building on the information presented by the USDA at its
Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA on February 25‐26, with 2015 U.S. corn planted acres matching
the higher March 31st Prospective Planting report planted acreage forecast. Projected 2016 U.S. corn
plantings equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 85.413 ma would be up
4.664 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is projected to be a record
14.349 billion bushels (bb) – up from 13.829 bb in 2013, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.601 bb in 2015. With
forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.725 bb (2nd highest behind 13.748 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15), and
projected ending stocks of 2.486 bb (18.11% S/U) – up from 1.862 bb (13.77% S/U) in “current crop” MY
2015/16, U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.45 /bu – down from the $3.55 /bu midpoint
estimate for “current” MY 2015/16 and subject to lowering in future USDA WASDE reports. This scenario is
given a 35% likelihood of occurring by KSU.
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KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.5 ma downward adjustment in 2016
U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report. A) KSU‐Scenario A (Lower
Acres & Trend Yield) (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2016/17: 92.101 ma planted, 84.404 ma
harvested, 164.5 bu/ac yield, 13.825 bb production, 15.727 bb total supplies, 13.640 bb total use, 2.087 bb
ending stocks, 15.30% S/U, & $3.20 /bu U.S. corn average price; B) KSU‐Scenario B (Lower Acres & Moderate
Drought) (25% prob.) assumes 92.101 ma planted, 84.404 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac yield, 13.279 bb
production, 15.186 bb total supplies, 13.575 bb total use, 1.611 bb ending stocks, 11.87% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S.
corn price; and C) KSU‐Scenario C (Lower Acres & Extreme Drought) (10% prob.) assumes 92.101 ma planted,
84.404 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.607 bb production, 14.519 bb total supplies, 13.382 bb total use,
1.137 bb ending stocks, 8.5% S/U, & $4.75 /bu U.S. corn price.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,179.7 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for
“current” MY 2015/16, down from 1,187.9 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,123.9 mmt in MY
2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 208.9 mmt (21.5% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 are up from
207.6 mmt (21.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 175.0 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
…
February 11, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
rket factors such as a) international geopolitical conflicts, b) financial market disruptions, c) U.S. farmer resistance to
selling at low February‐March 2016 cash corn prices, and d) “El Nino” or “El Nino‐La Nina transition”‐ related weather
patterns in spring‐summer 2016 with negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each still impact corn market
prices through summer‐fall 2016. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign
livestock feeding and bioenergy users – leading to increased feedgrain usage. The high value of the U.S. dollar and
prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop have been significant limiting factors for U.S. corn exports.
USDA Estimate for “New Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA estimated 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and for “new
crop” MY 2015/16 that there would be total supplies of 15.382 bb. Total use of 13.545 bb (down 25 million bushels or
‘mb”) – which includes ethanol use of 5.225 bb (up 25 mb over 1 month ago), non‐ethanol FSI use of 1.370 bb, exports of
1.650 bb (down 50 mb from January, and 100 mb from December projections), and feed and residual use of 5.300 bb.
Ending stocks are forecast at 1.837 bb (13.56% S/U) in MY 2015/16 – up 35 mb from last month, and up from 1.731 bb
(12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn average cash prices are forecast
the range of $3.35‐$3.85 /bu. ($3.60 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89
(record) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their early release Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA provided an
initial forecast of U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning September 1,
2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.500 million acres (ma) – up 2.501 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016
harvested acres of 82.700 ma would be up 1.951 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn
production is projected to be 13.900 billion bushels (bb) – 2nd highest on record behind 14.216 bb in 2014. With forecast
MY 2016/17 total use of 13.935 bb (record high), and an adjusted projection of ending stocks of 1.832 bb (13.15% S/U),
U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.60 /bu – unchanged from the $3.60 /bu midpoint estimate for “new
crop” MY 2015/16.
KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on adjustments to the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025, KSU
projections are for 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.500 (unchanged from the USDA), but with 2016 harvested acres of
83.079 ma (91.8% harvested‐to‐planted, equal to MY 2015/16), with trend yields of 164.5 bu/ac, and 2016 U.S. corn
production of 13.666 bb. With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.760 bb, and an adjusted projection of ending stocks of
1.773 bb (12.89% S/U), U.S. corn prices are projected by KSU to be $3.70 /bu – up $0.10 /bu from the USDA’s early
projection for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
KSU 2016 U.S. Corn “Short Crop Scenario – 13.000 Billion Bushels: If significant corn production problems were to occur
in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in a 13.000 bb corn (156.5 bu/ac yield on 83.079 ma harvested), then all else
being equal, ending stocks in “next crop” MY 2016/17 could decline to 1.107 bb (8.0% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely to
increase to $5.00‐$5.50 per bushel.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,176.1 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for “new crop” MY
2015/16, down marginally from 1,183.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.1 mmt in MY 2013/14.
Projected World corn ending stocks of 208.8 mmt (21.6% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 206.2 mmt (21.1%
S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.8 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. February 9th USDA WASDE Report
On February 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 9th World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
I‐B. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
Since a low of $3.48 ½ on January 7, 2016, MARCH 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices traded up to a high of $3.73 ¾ on February 2nd, but have since declined to a close of
$3.60 ¼ on Wednesday, February 10th (Figure 1). Similarly, since a low of $3.74 ½ on January 7,
2016, MARCH 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices traded up to a high of
$3.95 on February 4th, but have since declined to a close of $3.83 ½ on Wednesday, February 10th.
Figure 1. MARCH & DECEMBER 2016 CME Weekly Corn Futures Price Charts
ne …
March 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
as a) economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain and energy commodity
markets, b) U.S. farmer resistance to selling at low March‐April 2016 cash corn prices, and c) concerns about
possible “El Nino” or “El Nino‐La Nina transition”‐ related weather patterns in spring‐summer 2016 with
negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each still impact corn market prices through summer‐fall
2016. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and
bioenergy users – leading to strong domestic feedgrain usage and providing underlying support for U.S. corn
exports. To date in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S. dollar and current
prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop have been significant limiting factors for U.S. corn
exports.
USDA Estimate for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made no changes in its estimate of the U.S. corn supply‐
demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.601 bb, and total
supplies of 15.382 bb for MY 2015/16. Total use is projected to be 13.545 bb – including ethanol use of 5.225
bb, non‐ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use of 1.370 bb, exports of 1.650 bb, and feed and residual use
of 5.300 bb. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.837 bb (13.56% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 – up from 1.731 bb
(12.6% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn average cash prices
are forecast to be in the range of $3.40‐$3.80 /bu. ($3.60 midpoint) versus $3.70 in “old crop” MY 2014/15,
$4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: At the USDA Agricultural Outlook Conference in Arlington, VA
on February 25‐26, the USDA forecast of U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17
marketing year beginning September 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. corn plantings of 90.000 million
acres (ma) – up 2.001 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 82.300 ma would be up 1.551 ma vs
2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is projected to be 13.825 billion bushels
(bb) – 3rd highest on record behind 13.829 bb in 2013 and 14.216 bb in 2014, but greater than 13.601 bb in
2015. With forecast MY 2016/17 total use of 13.725 bb (2nd highest behind 13.748 bb in MY 2014/15), and
projected ending stocks of 1.977 bb (14.40% S/U), U.S. corn prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.45 /bu –
down from the $3.60 /bu midpoint estimate for “current” MY 2015/16.
KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Using recent USDA planted and harvested acres projections (see
above), KSU projections are for long term trend yields for 2016 of 164.5 bu/ac, and 2016 U.S. corn production
of 13.538 bb. Total use of 13.665 bb includes 5.265 bb corn use for ethanol (up 40 mb vs USDA), non‐ethanol
food, seed and industrial use of 1.375 bb (same as USDA), exports of 1.650 bb (down 50 mb vs USDA), and
livestock feed and residual use of 5.375 bb (down 50 mb vs USDA). Following these KSU supply and use
Page | 2
projections, ending stocks are projected to be 1.710 bb (12.51% S/U), with U.S. corn prices projected by KSU to
be $3.75 /bu – up $0.30 /bu from the USDA’s early projection of $3.45 /bu for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
Potential KSU 2016 U.S. Corn “Short Crop Scenario – 13.000 Billion Bushels: If moderately significant corn
production problems were to occur in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in a 13.000 bb corn (157.95
bu/ac yield on 82.300 ma harvested), then all else being equal, ending stocks for “next crop” MY 2016/17
could decline to 1.172 bb (8.5% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely to increase to $4.50‐$5.50 per bushel.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,174.75 million metric tons (mmt) are projected for
“current” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,184.5 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,124.1
mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World corn ending stocks of 207.0 mmt (21.4% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16
are up from 205.1 mmt (20.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 174.8 mmt (18.4% S/U) in MY
2013/14.
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. March 9th USDA WASDE Report & February 25‐26 Agricultural Outlook
Conference, Arlington, Virginia
On March 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “current” 2015/16 marketing years. The
“current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016.
The March 9th USDA WASDE report followed earlier U.S. corn supply‐demand and price projections for the
“next crop” 2016 provided by the USDA at the 2016 Agricultural Outlook Conference in Arlington, Virginia on
February 25‐26, 2016.
I‐B. CME MAY & DECEMBER 2016 Corn Futures Trends
Since lows of $3.54 ½ on January 7th and $3.54 ½ on March 3rd, MAY 2016 Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME) corn futures prices have traded higher. On March 9th when the USDA WASDE report
was released, CME MAY 2016 corn futures opened at $3.60, traded in a range of $3.57 ¼ to $3.61 ½,
and closed $0.01 lower at $3.59 ½. Since that day, CME MAY Corn traded in a range from $3.58 on
March 10th to $3.69 ¼ on March 14th before closing at $3.68 ¾ that same day (Figure 1).
…
July 18, 2012
Energy
16
Livestock and Dairy Industries in Transition Since Feed Costs
Began … consumption grew to 221 pounds in 2007
before starting to decline … firms are beginning to either transition their plants to biobutanol …
July 18, 2012
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
16
Livestock and Dairy Industries in Transition Since Feed Costs
Began … consumption grew to 221 pounds in 2007
before starting to decline … firms are beginning to either transition their plants to biobutanol …
August 19, 2010
Christopher Wolf (MSU)
• Nov. 2007; 1,000 surveys in MI
– … increasingly
encouraged transition
• Implication: “Fighting …
February 27, 2018
2018 Farm Bill Meetings Presentations
Process
Source: Schweikhardt, 2007
The Political SettingThe … replace ACRE and DCP
Cotton transitions to crop insurance
Sugar …