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May 4, 2020
Risk Management Strategies
protection against the vagaries of production risk, the development
of … ii) the producer’s Actual Production History (APH) yield, an average … as dryland and irrigated production. Regarding insurance guarantee …
February 13, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Introduction – An Overview of the U.S. Corn Market & USDA Reports
Corn Market Overview
While the U.S. and World corn market has adequate supplies at this time, ending stocks have been
trending lower since the 2016/17 marketing year (MY). Market projections from the USDA are for this
“tightening up” to continue through “next crop” MY 2019/20 which begins on September 1, 2019 and will last
through August 31, 2020. By its’ behavior, it is evident that the U.S. corn market continues to have a group
“narrative view” that supplies of U.S. corn will remain plentiful through at least mid‐summer 2019.
Unless a short crop develops in South America in coming months, or there are serious corn planting delays
in April‐May 2019 in the United States – this predominant market narrative that there are“more than
adequate U.S. corn supplies” will continue to limit any major upward movement in U.S. corn prices throughout
Spring, Summer and Fall 2019.
Corn market price expectations in year 2019 are heavily influenced by seasonal grain futures price patterns
over the most recent years and decades. Over the last 20 years the frequency of economically important price
increases in DEC Corn futures from February to November is 25%. This occurred in years 2002 (up $0.20 /bu),
2006 (up $0.44 /bu), 2010 (up $1.47 /bu), 2011 (up $0.31 /bu), and 2012 (up $1.82 /bu). No such increase in
DEC Corn futures from the preceding February to the following November has occurred in the last six (6) years
– since the major U.S. drought and resulting short crop of year 2012. Since year 2012, February averages of
DEC Corn futures have been greater than average prices for the following month of November by $1.26 /bu in
2013, $1.13 in 2014, $0.32 in 2015, $0.37 in 2016, $0.47 in 2017, and $0.28 in 2018.
Consequently (and conversely), 75% of the time over the last two decades the monthly average of DEC
Corn futures during the previous February have been greater than during the following November just ahead
of the DEC Corn futures closing month. Taking all these things together, the “consensus narrative opinion” of
the corn market at this time seems to be that there will NOT be significant corn production problems in either
South …
October 1, 2010
KFMA Newsletters
result by the value of
farm production. Unpaid operator and family … quartiles included
value of farm production, net farm income,
interest … farms
in four value of farm production categories (i.e.,
less than …
July 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
year (MY); 2) higher
2018 production and total use estimates for … the pace of U.S. ethanol production that has been occurring … per bushel.
2) Higher Production & Usage with Tighter Stocks …
December 18, 2017
Section 6: Cash Flow Planning (FINFLO), Financial Statements and Ratios
Inventory
7 Corn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Soybeans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 Current Year Crop Production
11 Wheat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 Corn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 Sorghum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 Soybeans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 Hay …
August 8, 2018
KFMA Research
Inventory
7 Corn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 Soybeans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 Current Year Crop Production
11 Wheat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 Corn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 Sorghum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 Soybeans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 Hay …
September 16, 2020
Limit-Feeding Stockers
Sheet for Selling Live
Production Efficiency Information
Death … Sheet for Selling Live
Production Efficiency Information
Death …
December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… losing at $3.49 ¼ on December 20th. In
its’ December 12th USDA Crop Production report, the USDA maintain … …
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Negative U.S. Corn Market Factors
U.S. Corn Production in 2018: The most important negative market factor continues to be the
projected size of the 2018 U.S. corn crop at 14.626 billion bushels (bb) – forecast to be the second
highest on record behind 15.148 bb in 2016, but up from 14.601 bb in 2017 (Table 1 & Figures 5‐7).
…
February 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… … o be $11.95‐$13.45 /bu, up
$0.20, but still down from the record high of $14.40 in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.
KSU U.S. Soybean Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of 2014 U.S. soybean production
and “next crop” MY …