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June 8, 2016
KFMA Research
profitability of technology in other studies. Besides Olson and … few farms
have abandoned other technologies such as GPS … Precision
Agriculture. Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural …
June 28, 2018
Hedging & Options
…
In our interviews for this study, we visited with some 40 individuals representing about 30
different organizations or firms. Information collected included documenting the specific nature
of strengths, weaknesses, and concerns with current delivery methods; exploring how various
modifications or alternatives to executing delivery might occur; and assessing the strengths and
weaknesses of new alternative delivery methods. Furthermore, because the topic of discussion
naturally led to other relevant issues, we leveraged this project to provide information gleaned
on related issues. Each group of stakeholders we visited with had a unique perspective because
of their role in the industry, the location of their operations, structural character of their
business, and how they utilize live cattle futures. Every individual we visited with had
considerable experience in some aspect of live cattle contract design, hedging, speculating,
making or taking delivery, marketing services, market surveillance and regulation, market
consulting, or contract management. The amount of thought and consideration these
individuals had given this topic were a testament to its importance to the industry.
Data from USDA AMS, CME Group, and CFTC were collected and utilized to assess issues
relative to deliverable supplies, deliverable capacity, pricing systems, deliveries, microstructure
of contract trade volume, and basis. Published literature was reviewed and utilized to
document the existing body of published works relative to issues associated with the live cattle
contract.
…
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
es to the most recent USDA projections of 264.7 mmt ending
stocks and 35.9% ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18. The present “large crop‐over
supply” situation in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a prevailing limiting influence on U.S. and
World wheat prices – even with recent drought‐fueled moves higher in the market.
Large Black Sea Crops, Drought in HRS Wheat, & the “World‐Less‐China” Market Situation
There are at least three (3) key factors affecting World wheat markets at this time.
First, Increased production among major Black Sea Region exporters in “new crop” MY 2017/18 is at least
temporarily “crowding out” export trade for other major exporters – including the United States. Combined
wheat production in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan of 118.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18 is up 3.2% from
114.3 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 15.6% from 102.1 mmt in MY 2015/16.
Wheat production from these three countries amounts to 15.9% of World production in “new crop” MY
2017/18, and 15.1% one year and 13.9% two years ago. In comparison, combined exports from these same
three countries is projected to be 55.0 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18 (30.6% of World exports), up from 52.6
mmt a year ago (28.9% of World exports), and 50.3 mmt two years ago (29.3% of World exports).
Second, while there are plentiful aggregate supplies of wheat available in the World market, the available
supply of high protein milling wheat is typically less so. This situation had been exacerbated earlier this year by
drought conditions occurring in U.S. and Canadian Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat production areas. These
drought conditions had raised the demand and price premiums offered for high protein wheat supplies –
whether they are from hard red winter wheat supplies or elsewhere. However, with recent reports show less
impact of dry conditions on 2017 North American Hard Red Spring Wheat production than expected, wheat
protein premiums declining sharply in recent weeks.
Third, while the aggregate supply of wheat in World markets has grown, the supply of wheat from a
“World‐Less‐China” perspective is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” further in “new
crop” MY 2017/18. “World‐Less‐China” wheat percent stocks‐to‐use have declined to the tightest level since
at least MY 2008/09 when U.S. wheat cash prices averaged $5.70 /bu. It seems likely that this “China supply
isolation factor” eventually will lead to noticeably tighter global supplies of available‐exportable wheat
sometime in the next 1‐2 marketing years – brought on by the inability of buyers to secure needed supplies
without having to bid prices at least moderately higher in export markets.
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand and price projections for “new crop” MY
2017/18 in the August 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE reports.
United States’ wheat plantings continue to be projected to be 46.657 million acres (ma) – down from
50.154 ma in “old crop” MY 2016/17 to the lowest level since the early 1900s. Harvested acres are forecast to
be 38.115 ma (83.72% harvested‐to‐planted) – down from 43.890 ma a year ago. The 2017 U.S. average wheat
yield is projected at 45.6 bu/ac (down from 0.6 bu/ac from July), down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/acre.
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2017 is forecast to be 1.739 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in
2016. Projected “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.074 bb (down from 3.403 bb in “old crop” MY
2016/17), with total use of 2.141 bb (down 5 mb from July, and from 2.219 bb in “old crop” MY 2016/17).
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The USDA projected “new crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks to be 933 million bushels (mb) (vs 1.184 bb a
year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 43.6% S/U (vs 53.4% last year and 50.0% the previous year).
United States’ wheat prices are projected to average $4.80 /bu ($4.40‐$5.20 /bu) – up from $3.89 in “old crop”
MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is estimated by
Kansas State University that these USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 have a 55% probability of
occurring.
Four Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s August 10th projection, four potential KSU‐
Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower U.S. Production” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2017/18
that the following occurs. This scenario assumes that there will be 46.657 ma planted, 83.72% harvested‐to‐
planted, 37.500 ma harvested, 44.0 bu/ac yield, 1.650 bb production, 2.984 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports,
150 mb feed & residual use, 2.141 bb total use, 843 mb ending stocks, 39.37% stocks/use, & $5.20 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 800 mb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 1.966 bb total use, 1.108 bb ending stocks, 56.36% stocks/use, & $3.75 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 1.200 bb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 2.366 bb total use, 708 mb ending stocks, 29.92% stocks/use, & $6.00 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 4) “Wildcard Foreign Events” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, less than 700 mb
exports, 150 mb feed & residual use, less than 1.800 bb total use, more than 1.300 bb ending stocks, greater
than 65% stocks/use, & less than $3.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
…
December 31, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
situations contrast with other marketing years of more “average” … pace of 5.7 mb per week to meet
USDA’s projection of … outcomes for grain sorghum and other grains as well, this corn …
August 1, 2012
Certification of Meat Attributes
Regional Project: W-2177 meeting in Denver, CO on July 24-25 … tenderness claims and perhaps other product claims besides
tenderness … dorsi (ribeye or loin eye) meets the MTTV
requirement eight …
November 24, 2023
Management
but poses challenges for others.
Businesses and governments … these impacts can affect other businesses. For example … indirect business taxes + other property type income
• …
September 26, 2022
Industry Economics & Trade
trade of cattle, hides, and other aspects of
the broader … the broader industry to other projects. This project outlines … consider spillover impacts on other sectors such as allied industries …
July 1, 2010
Animal ID & Traceability
educational purposes. All other rights reserved. In
each … animal health,
marketing, and other purposes, the need is evident … attractive to producers,
while meeting the goals for which they …
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Moderate Strength in U.S. Corn Exports: In recent weeks, U.S. corn export shipments have been
neutral – marginally behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s November 8th … … Uncertain Prospects for South American Corn Production in 2019: As a result of what can be
formally termed to be a “trade war” between China and the United States, China’s soybean export
purchases have shifted completely away from the U.S. to Argentina, Brazil and other non‐U.S. World
soybean producing countries. The export price difference between locations in Brazil and the U.S. are
estimated to be more than $2.00 per bushel when converted to U.S. dollars. Given this price
differential favoring South American soybeans, it makes sense that South American farmers will have
an incentive to increase their soybean acreage and production in 2019 (Figures 14 & 15abc).
Early planting progress for soybeans in Brazil is ahead of historical pace, with indications that soybean
acreage will be increased – likely drawing acres away from first crop Brazilian corn (which typically
accounts for 1/3 of the Brazil corn crop). The second Brazilian corn crop – much of which typically
enters World export markets – will be planted on harvested soybean acres in early 2019.
Consequently, IF there is a sizable acreage shift toward soybean acres in South America in 2019, and if
those acres come from corn, THEN lower World corn production will help support prices in late Winter –
Spring 2019.
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…
December 13, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
In recent weeks, U.S. corn export shipments have been “neutral‐to‐negative” – marginally behind
the pace needed to meet the USDA’s December 11t … mb, respectively.
These were moderately behind the pace of 48.2 mb needed to meet the USDA forecast of 2.450
bb. At the most recent 5‐week pace, U.S. corn exports would reach 2.151 bb by the end of the
marketing year – down 299 mb from the USDA December 11th projection.
o …