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September 3, 2017
Section 5: Long-Range Planning (FINLRB)
May have some adjustments due to additional investment
to improve the asset, partial sale, other activity
– Inherited capital assets have initial basis equal to the
value at date of inheritance in most instances
(“stepped up” tax basis)
– … Generally ordinary gain if held less than 24 months (cattle
and horses – 12 months all other livestock)
• If held 24 months or more …
November 27, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Moderate Strength in U.S. Corn Exports: In recent weeks, U.S. corn export shipments have been
neutral – marginally behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s November 8th … … Uncertain Prospects for South American Corn Production in 2019: As a result of what can be
formally termed to be a “trade war” between China and the United States, China’s soybean export
purchases have shifted completely away from the U.S. to Argentina, Brazil and other non‐U.S. World
soybean producing countries. The export price difference between locations in Brazil and the U.S. are
estimated to be more than $2.00 per bushel when converted to U.S. dollars. Given this price
differential favoring South American soybeans, it makes sense that South American farmers will have
an incentive to increase their soybean acreage and production in 2019 (Figures 14 & 15abc).
Early planting progress for soybeans in Brazil is ahead of historical pace, with indications that soybean
acreage will be increased – likely drawing acres away from first crop Brazilian corn (which typically
accounts for 1/3 of the Brazil corn crop). The second Brazilian corn crop – much of which typically
enters World export markets – will be planted on harvested soybean acres in early 2019.
Consequently, IF there is a sizable acreage shift toward soybean acres in South America in 2019, and if
those acres come from corn, THEN lower World corn production will help support prices in late Winter –
Spring 2019.
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…
December 13, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
In recent weeks, U.S. corn export shipments have been “neutral‐to‐negative” – marginally behind
the pace needed to meet the USDA’s December 11t … mb, respectively.
These were moderately behind the pace of 48.2 mb needed to meet the USDA forecast of 2.450
bb. At the most recent 5‐week pace, U.S. corn exports would reach 2.151 bb by the end of the
marketing year – down 299 mb from the USDA December 11th projection.
o …
col. A• Enter spouse and other changes in col. B• Enter … or original due date and meet:
o Timely file original … late filing penalty if you meet Rev. Proc. 84-35
Unless …
January 9, 2023
Ag Law Issues
science or horticulture or
other similar disciplines are important … business,
where “the rubber meets the road” is in the law … framework
within which all other disciplines must operate …
January 1, 2011
Land Leasing
Forms
information about this and other leases, visit http://AgLease101.org
Cropland … landowner and the operator. Other income
items, such as government … Buildings, pasture, and
other cropland are often involved …
February 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
production problems and
supply prospects in Europe, northwestern Africa, parts of the Black Sea region, south Asia/India, and parts of
Argentina, b) geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that could impact commodity
markets, and c) spillover impacts into grains and other commodities from volatile World economies, and
financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation currently existing in World and
U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate also is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports and
overall usage, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and stocks‐to‐use, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA lowered projected U.S. wheat exports
and raised ending stocks by the same amounts in its supply‐demand forecasts for U.S. wheat in the “current
crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million
bushels (mb) of exports (down 25 mb), 1.958 bb of total use (down 25 mb), 966 mb ending stocks (up 25 mb),
and 49.34% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 47.45% in January to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10).
A price range of $4.90‐$5.10 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $5.00 /bu – the lowest U.S.
wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: In their Agricultural Projections to 2025 the USDA
provided a forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand for “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year beginning June 1,
2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 53.0 million acres (ma) – down 1.644 ma from 2015.
Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 44.9 ma would be down 2.194 ma vs 2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S.
wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.060
bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with KSU‐adjusted MY 2016/17 total supplies of 3.151 bb (up from 2.924 bb in
“current crop” MY 2015/16). With “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.168 bb, and KSU‐adjusted ending
stocks of 983 mb (45.34% S/U), U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be $4.40 /bu – down from $5.00
/bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16.
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KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Compared to the USDA forecast, Kansas State
University (KSU) forecasts for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are a combination of lower 2016 wheat planted and
harvested acres, trendline yields, lower production and total supplies, lower exports and feed use, higher
ending stocks and percent ending stocks‐to‐use, and even lower prices. The KSU forecast is based on 2016 U.S.
wheat plantings of 50.695 ma – down 3.949 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 43.690 ma would
be down 3.404 ma vs 2015. With projected trendline yields of 46.0 bu/ac (nearly equal to the USDA’s 2016
forecast), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.010 bb (down from 2.052 bb in 2015), with MY
2016/17 total supplies equaling 3.101 bb (down 50 mb from the USDA projection).
With forecasts of exports at 850 mb (down 50 mb from USDA but still up from 775 mb in “current crop” MY
2015/16) and feed and residual use of 150 mb (down 75 mb from USDA but equal to “current crop” MY
2015/16), “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.043 bb is forecast, and projected ending stocks of 1.058 bb
(51.79% S/U). Based on historic price relationships, U.S. wheat prices are projected to be $4.25 /bu – down
$0.25 from the USDA’s projection of $4.40 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17, and down from $5.00 /bu in
“current crop” MY 2015/16, $5.99 in MY 2014/15, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, and the record $7.77 in MY 2012/13.
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. February 9, 2016 USDA WASDE Report
On February 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its February 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – with U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and
price projections for the 2013/14, “old crop” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years.
The “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat runs from 6/1/2015 through 5/31/2016.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat MARCH & JULY 2016 Futures
Since a low of $4.51 ¾ on January 4, 2016, MARCH 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $4.81 ¾ on January 13th, but have
since declined to a close of $4.42 ¼ on Tuesday, February 9th, and $4.42 ½ on Friday, February 12th
before closing at $4.44 ¼ on that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MARCH & JULY 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
September 25, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
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soon how other agribusinesses that would …
February 12, 2024
Ag Law Issues
Congress--restricts state power. In
other words, the grant of federal … governments that are
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October 22, 2020
Precision Ag and Technology Articles
plateau as land, fuel, and other
farming inputs become more … producing corn also
produce other crops such as soybeans, grain … mobile electronic devices or other connected technologies with …