Search
Displaying 361 - 370 of 655
April 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Asia/India, China, South America, and
Australia, and the central and southern plains of the United States (possible wheat disease problems from
seasonal rains), b) ongoing geopolitical conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that
could impact commodity markets, and c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other commodities from
volatile World economies, and financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation
that exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World
wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – alos is a serious negative
factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and
causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made minor changes in its supply‐
demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion
bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million bushels (mb) of exports, 140 mb wheat feed use
(down 10 mb), 1.948 bb of total use (down 10 mb), 976 mb ending stocks (up 10 mb), and 50.09% ending‐
stocks‐to‐use (up from 49.34% in March to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10). A price range of
$4.90‐$5.00 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $4.95 /bu – the lowest U.S. wheat marketing
year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings
Report forecasts and information from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA on February 25‐
26, 2016, a KSU‐adjusted USDA forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand is available for “next crop” 2016/17
marketing year beginning June 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres
(ma) – down 5.085 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.174 ma would be down 4.920 ma vs
Page | 2
2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.935 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “next crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.036 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16). With projected “next crop” MY 2016/17 ending
stocks of 943 mb and percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.05% S/U, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to
be $4.20 /bu – down from $4.95 /bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16. It is assumed by KSU that these adjusted
USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is assumed to have a 40% probability of occurring.
KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand
and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as
USDA, but 437,000 less acres harvested than the adjusted USDA estimates based on historical percent
harvested‐to‐planted acres relationships. A) KSU‐Scenario A (Trend Yield) (30% probability) assumes for “next
crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.021 bb
total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 978 mb ending stocks, 47.87% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. wheat
average price; B) KSU‐Scenario B (Foreign Crop Problems – Higher U.S. Exports) (15% prob.) assumes for
“next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production,
3.021 bb total supplies, 1.050 bb exports, 2.243 bb total use, 778 mb ending stocks, 34.7% S/U, & $5.10 /bu
U.S. wheat average price; and C) KSU‐Scenario C (Widespread U.S. Crop Problems) (15% prob.) assumes for
“next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac yield, 1.669 bb production,
2.770 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 727 mb ending stocks, 35.6% S/U, & $5.00 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
…
March 17, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
e
Middle East, the Former Soviet Union/Black Sea region, south Asia/India, and Australia, and the central and
southern plains of the United States, b) ongoing geopolitical conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the
Black Sea region that could impact commodity markets, and c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other
commodities from volatile World economies, and financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐
over supply” situation currently existing in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing
negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate also is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports,
raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA left unchanged its supply‐demand and
price projections for U.S. wheat in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb)
production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million bushels (mb) of exports, 1.958 bb of total use, 966 mb ending
stocks, and 49.34% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 47.45% in January to the highest level since 48.6% in MY
2009/10). A price range of $4.90‐$5.10 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $5.00 /bu – the
lowest U.S. wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: At the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA
on February 25‐26, 2016, the USDA provided a forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand for “next crop” 2016/17
marketing year beginning June 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 51.0 million acres
(ma) – down 3.644 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 43.4 ma would be down 3.694 ma vs
2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.991 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “next crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.082 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16). With projected “next crop” MY 2016/17 ending
Page | 2
stocks of 989 mb and percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 47.25% S/U, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to
be $4.20 /bu – down from $5.00 /bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Compared to the USDA forecast, Kansas State
University (KSU) forecasts for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are a combination of lower 2016 wheat planted and
harvested acres, marginally higher harvested acres, trendline yields, higher production and total supplies,
uncertain exports, lower feed use, higher ending stocks, higher percent ending stocks‐to‐use, along with
marginally higher prices. The KSU forecast is based on 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 50.695 ma – down 3.949
ma from 2015 and less than 51.000 ma forecast by the USDA. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 43.690 ma
would be down 3.404 ma vs 2015, and up from the 43.400 ma USDA forecast. With projected trendline yields
of 46.0 bu/ac (nearly equal to the USDA), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.010 bb (down from
2.052 bb in 2015 and up from 1.991 bb projected by the USDA), with MY 2016/17 total supplies equaling 3.101
bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 and up 81 mb from USDA’s projection for MY 2016/17).
With forecasts of exports at 850 mb (equal to USDA but still up from 775 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16)
and feed and residual use of 175 mb (down 25 mb from USDA’s forecast, but up from 150 mb in “current crop”
MY 2015/16), “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.068 bb is forecast, along with projected ending stocks of
1.033 bb, with ending stocks‐to‐use of 49.95%. Based on historic price relationships and the downward price
adjustment that has occurred in recent months, U.S. wheat prices are projected to be $4.25 /bu – up $0.05
from the USDA’s projection of $4.20 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17, and down from $5.00 /bu in “current
crop” MY 2015/16, $5.99 in MY 2014/15, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, and the record $7.77 in MY 2012/13.
…
January 9, 2023
Ag Law Issues
science or horticulture or
other similar disciplines are important … business,
where “the rubber meets the road” is in the law … framework
within which all other disciplines must operate …
September 25, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
implied by the author or any other party. Each farmer must consider … for your comments. We hope others will give the OSU-KSU
Farm … We will announce
soon how other agribusinesses that would …
February 12, 2024
Ag Law Issues
Congress--restricts state power. In
other words, the grant of federal … governments that are
hostile to other states. Generally, the dormant … change their operations to meet California’s standards …
col. A• Enter spouse and other changes in col. B• Enter … or original due date and meet:
o Timely file original … late filing penalty if you meet Rev. Proc. 84-35
Unless …
January 1, 2013
Land Leasing
Forms
information about this and other leases, visit http://AgLease101.org
Managing … trust and confidence in each other.
• The operator must … bulls. While the leasing
of other items such as pasture, hay …
July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
n MY 2007/08 compares to the most recent USDA projections of 260.6 mmt ending stocks and 35.4%
ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18. The present “large crop‐over supply” situation in
World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a prevailing limiting influence on U.S. and World wheat prices
– even with recent drought‐fueled moves higher in the market.
Wheat Protein Supply Concerns & the “World Less China” Market Situation
Page | 2
The broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be “obscuring” at
least a couple of other important market issues.
First, while the quantity of wheat available in the World is plentiful, the available supply of high protein milling
wheat is typically less so. This factor helps exports of U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat (higher protein – good
quality) relative to World wheat export competitors. The drought conditions now occurring in the U.S. and
Canadian hard red spring wheat producing regions has raised the demand and price premiums offered for high
protein wheat supplies – whether they are from hard red winter wheat supplies or elsewhere.
Second, while the aggregate supply of wheat in World markets has grown, the supply of wheat from a “World
Less China” perspective is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” further in “new crop” MY
2017/18. “World Less China” wheat percent stocks‐to‐use have declined to the tightest level since at least MY
2008/09 when U.S. wheat cash prices averaged $5.70 /bu. If this “China supply isolation factor” eventually
leads to noticeably tighter global supplies of available‐exportable wheat in coming months, then it will likely
have a significant positive impact U.S. wheat market prices in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
However, unless there is this change in the broader, overriding focus of the World wheat market away from
aggregate global supplies to available “World Less China” supplies – it is likely that significant World wheat
production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices
recover significantly in later 2017. Such disruptions elsewhere would likely cause the market to then focus on
the limited availability of food quality wheat outside of China in the World market. Also, ongoing strength in
the U.S. dollar exchange rate continues to be a negative factor limiting the competitive affordability of U.S.
wheat exports in World markets.
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand and price projections for “new crop” MY 2017/18
in the July 12th Crop Production & World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
United States’ wheat plantings are projected to be 46.567 million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in “old
crop” MY 2016/17 to the lowest level since the early 1900s. Harvested acres are forecast to be 38.115 ma
(83.72% harvested‐to‐planted) – down from 43.890 ma a year ago. The 2017 U.S. average wheat yield is
projected at 46.2 bu/ac, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/acre.
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2017 is forecast to be 1.760 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015.
Projected “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.084 bb (down from 3.403 bb in “old crop” MY 2016/17),
with total use of 2.146 bb (down from 2.219 bb in “old crop” MY 2016/17).
The USDA projected “new crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks to be 938 million bushels (mb) (vs 1.184 bb a year
ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 43.7% S/U (vs 53.4% last year and 50.0% the previous year). United
States’ wheat prices are projected to average $4.80 /bu – up from $3.89 in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but down
from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is estimated by Kansas State University that
these USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s July 12th projection, three potential KSU‐
Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
Page | 3
KSU Scenario 1) “5 Year Avg Yield” Scenario (20% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. This scenario assumes that there will be 46.657 ma planted, 83.72% harvested‐to‐planted,
38.115 ma harvested, 45.8 bu/ac 5‐year average yield, 1.746 bb production, 3.030 bb total supplies, 975 mb
exports, 150 mb feed & residual use, 2.146 bb total use, 884 mb ending stocks, 41.19% S/U, & $5.05 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (20% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18. Planted acres of 46.657 ma are associated with 38.115 ma harvested, 45.8 bu/ac 5‐year
average yield, 1.746 bb production, 3.030 bb total supplies, 1.200 bb exports (due to foreign crop problems),
125 mb feed & residual use, 2.346 bb total use, 684 mb ending stocks, 29.16% S/U, & $6.00 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “new crop” MY
2017/18. Planted acres of 46.657 ma, 83.72% harvested‐to‐planted, 38.115 ma harvested, 40.2 bu/ac low
“crop stress” yield, 1.633 bb production, 2.917 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports, 125 mb feed & residual use,
2.121 bb total use, 796 mb ending stocks, 37.53% S/U, & $5.35 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
October 22, 2020
Precision Ag and Technology Articles
plateau as land, fuel, and other
farming inputs become more … producing corn also
produce other crops such as soybeans, grain … mobile electronic devices or other connected technologies with …
Breakout Sessions
E Charges for Expenses
Other
IndemnificationIndemnification
f … Grass Restoration Requirements
Other ‐ Continued
Drilling … instrument.
2. Notwithstanding any other provisions in this lease …