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September 23, 2016
Risk Management Strategies
the contract if the farmer meets all of the
qualifications … benefits from YE and the other 9 units don’t benefit from …
December 3, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
This trend in the value of the U.S. trade weighted dollar index is especially significant to the U.S. wheat
market. A higher U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to other major currencies generally makes it more
expensive for foreign buyers of U.S. wheat to exchange their country’s currencies for U.S. dollars – which they
would then in turn use to purchase U.S. wheat exports (i.e., which are denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars).
Although this is not the only factor negatively impacting U.S. wheat exports, it is a very important one which
currently works against U.S. wheat being an affordable, competitive export seller in World wheat trade. …
April 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Asia/India, China, South America, and
Australia, and the central and southern plains of the United States (possible wheat disease problems from
seasonal rains), b) ongoing geopolitical conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that
could impact commodity markets, and c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other commodities from
volatile World economies, and financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation
that exists in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World
wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – alos is a serious negative
factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and
causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made minor changes in its supply‐
demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion
bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million bushels (mb) of exports, 140 mb wheat feed use
(down 10 mb), 1.948 bb of total use (down 10 mb), 976 mb ending stocks (up 10 mb), and 50.09% ending‐
stocks‐to‐use (up from 49.34% in March to the highest level since 48.6% in MY 2009/10). A price range of
$4.90‐$5.00 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $4.95 /bu – the lowest U.S. wheat marketing
year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings
Report forecasts and information from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA on February 25‐
26, 2016, a KSU‐adjusted USDA forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand is available for “next crop” 2016/17
marketing year beginning June 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres
(ma) – down 5.085 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.174 ma would be down 4.920 ma vs
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2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.935 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “next crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.036 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16). With projected “next crop” MY 2016/17 ending
stocks of 943 mb and percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.05% S/U, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to
be $4.20 /bu – down from $4.95 /bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16. It is assumed by KSU that these adjusted
USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is assumed to have a 40% probability of occurring.
KSU Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand
and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as
USDA, but 437,000 less acres harvested than the adjusted USDA estimates based on historical percent
harvested‐to‐planted acres relationships. A) KSU‐Scenario A (Trend Yield) (30% probability) assumes for “next
crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.021 bb
total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 978 mb ending stocks, 47.87% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. wheat
average price; B) KSU‐Scenario B (Foreign Crop Problems – Higher U.S. Exports) (15% prob.) assumes for
“next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production,
3.021 bb total supplies, 1.050 bb exports, 2.243 bb total use, 778 mb ending stocks, 34.7% S/U, & $5.10 /bu
U.S. wheat average price; and C) KSU‐Scenario C (Widespread U.S. Crop Problems) (15% prob.) assumes for
“next crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac yield, 1.669 bb production,
2.770 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.043 bb total use, 727 mb ending stocks, 35.6% S/U, & $5.00 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
…
March 17, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
e
Middle East, the Former Soviet Union/Black Sea region, south Asia/India, and Australia, and the central and
southern plains of the United States, b) ongoing geopolitical conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the
Black Sea region that could impact commodity markets, and c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other
commodities from volatile World economies, and financial and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐
over supply” situation currently existing in World and U.S. wheat markets continues to have a strong prevailing
negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly before summer‐2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate also is a serious negative factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports,
raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Current Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA left unchanged its supply‐demand and
price projections for U.S. wheat in the “current crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion bushels (bb)
production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 775 million bushels (mb) of exports, 1.958 bb of total use, 966 mb ending
stocks, and 49.34% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 47.45% in January to the highest level since 48.6% in MY
2009/10). A price range of $4.90‐$5.10 /bu was forecast by the USDA with a midpoint of $5.00 /bu – the
lowest U.S. wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: At the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, VA
on February 25‐26, 2016, the USDA provided a forecast of U.S. wheat supply‐demand for “next crop” 2016/17
marketing year beginning June 1, 2016. The USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 51.0 million acres
(ma) – down 3.644 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 43.4 ma would be down 3.694 ma vs
2015. Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 45.9 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.991 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “next crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.082 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16). With projected “next crop” MY 2016/17 ending
Page | 2
stocks of 989 mb and percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 47.25% S/U, U.S. wheat average prices are projected to
be $4.20 /bu – down from $5.00 /bu in “current crop” MY 2015/16.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: Compared to the USDA forecast, Kansas State
University (KSU) forecasts for “next crop” MY 2016/17 are a combination of lower 2016 wheat planted and
harvested acres, marginally higher harvested acres, trendline yields, higher production and total supplies,
uncertain exports, lower feed use, higher ending stocks, higher percent ending stocks‐to‐use, along with
marginally higher prices. The KSU forecast is based on 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 50.695 ma – down 3.949
ma from 2015 and less than 51.000 ma forecast by the USDA. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 43.690 ma
would be down 3.404 ma vs 2015, and up from the 43.400 ma USDA forecast. With projected trendline yields
of 46.0 bu/ac (nearly equal to the USDA), 2016 U.S. wheat production is projected to be 2.010 bb (down from
2.052 bb in 2015 and up from 1.991 bb projected by the USDA), with MY 2016/17 total supplies equaling 3.101
bb (up from 2.924 bb in “current crop” MY 2015/16 and up 81 mb from USDA’s projection for MY 2016/17).
With forecasts of exports at 850 mb (equal to USDA but still up from 775 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16)
and feed and residual use of 175 mb (down 25 mb from USDA’s forecast, but up from 150 mb in “current crop”
MY 2015/16), “next crop” MY 2016/17 total use of 2.068 bb is forecast, along with projected ending stocks of
1.033 bb, with ending stocks‐to‐use of 49.95%. Based on historic price relationships and the downward price
adjustment that has occurred in recent months, U.S. wheat prices are projected to be $4.25 /bu – up $0.05
from the USDA’s projection of $4.20 /bu in “next crop” MY 2016/17, and down from $5.00 /bu in “current
crop” MY 2015/16, $5.99 in MY 2014/15, $6.87 in MY 2013/14, and the record $7.77 in MY 2012/13.
…
June 19, 2023
Ag Law Issues
how
can one state override other states’ rules? Involved … dictate ag practices
in other states – it’s the topic … Congress--restricts state power. In other words, the grant of federal …
October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
area for erosion control or other purposes related to conservation … full indemnity if both crops meet certain requirements outlined … producers will still need to meet the …
November 1, 2008
Agribusiness Papers
the value they add to each other’s solutions when addressing … effectively collaborate with each other in our attempts to become … created any biases
in the other variables. The results showed …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
Supply Chain Relationships in other Industries … trade. Furthermore, several other agricultural
industries … emanated, in part, to better meet evolving
customer demands …
September 4, 2017
Section 5: Long-Range Planning (FINLRB)
Jan. 1 - Dec. 31, 2016, or other tax year beginning , 2016 … Gget a W-2,
14 14Other gains or (losses). Attach … 21 21Other income. List type and amount
22 …
September 2, 2022
Ag Law Issues
financial statement income. In other words,
it is a 15% tax on … exchange for cash or property other than the corporation’s … stock rights, as well as any other “economically similar” …