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February 18, 2021
would be less restrictive in
meeting specific cattle procurement … …
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45777.pdf
https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/FinalReportNegotiated5AreaCattleStudy.pdf
Agricultural Economics
Other Important Items – Insufficient … quarter)
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-
meat/marketing-extension-bulletins/trade-and-
demand/overview-us-beef-production-export
Agricultural Economics
Other Important Items – Insufficient …
May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
situation in MY 2007/08 compares to projections of 258.3
mmt ending stocks and 35.1% ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18. The present “large
crop‐over supply” situation in World and U.S. wheat markets have a prevailing negative influence on U.S. and
World wheat prices.
However, the broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be
“obscuring” at least a couple of other important market issues. First, while the quantity of wheat available in
the World is plentiful, the available supply of high protein milling wheat is less so. This factor helps exports of
U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat (higher protein – good quality) relative to World wheat export competitors.
Second, while the aggregate supply of wheat in World markets has grown, the supply of wheat in the “World
Less China” is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” in “next crop” MY 2017/18. “World Less
China” wheat percent stocks‐to‐use have declined to the tightest level since at least MY 2008/09 when
average U.S. wheat cash prices averaged $5.70 /bu. If this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to
noticeably tighter global supplies of available exportable wheat occurring in coming months, it would likely
have a positive impact U.S. wheat market prices in “next crop” MY 2017/18.
However, unless there is a change in the broader, overriding focus of the World wheat market away from
aggregate global supplies to available “World Less China” supplies – it is likely that significant World wheat
production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices
recover significantly in later 2017. Also, ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate continues to be a
negative factor limiting the competitive affordability of U.S. wheat exports in World markets. These factors
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together have resulted in higher U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and have caused U.S.
and Kansas wheat cash prices to still be only $0.30 /bu above the marketing loan rate in many Kansas locations
in mid‐May 2017 (after earlier having to fallen below loan rates in Fall 2016).
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: The USDA released their grain
market supply‐demand and price projections for “next crop” MY 2017/18 in the May 10th World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. United States’ wheat plantings are projected to be 46.059
million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in “current” MY 2016/17. Harvested acres are forecast to be 38.500
ma (83.59% harvested‐to‐planted) – down from 43.890 ma a year ago. The 2017 U.S. average wheat yield is
projected at 47.2 bu/ac, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/acre.
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2017 is forecast to be 1.820 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015.
Projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.105 bb (down from 3.400 bb in “current” MY 2016/17),
with total use of 2.191 bb (down from 2.241 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
The USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks to be 914 million bushels (mb) (vs 1.159 bb a year
ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 41.7% S/U (vs 51.7% last year and 50.0% the previous year). United
States’ wheat prices are projected to average $4.25 /bu – up from $3.90 in “current” MY 2016/17, but down
from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that
these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Trend Yield” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. It is assumed that there will be 46.059 ma planted, 82.50% harvested‐to‐planted, 37.999 ma
harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.786 bb production, 3.070 bb total supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 180 mb feed
& residual use, 2.200 bb total use, 870 mb ending stocks, 39.6% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (15% probability) assumes the following for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. Planted acres of 46.059 ma are associated with 39.334 ma harvested (82.50% harvested‐
to‐planted), 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.786 bb production, 3.070 bb total supplies, 1.150 bb exports, 180 mb
feed & residual use, 2.350 bb total use, 720 mb ending stocks, 30.6% S/U, & $5.10 /bu U.S. wheat average
price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Planted acres of 46.059 ma, 80.60% harvested‐to‐planted, 37.124 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac low
yield, 1.485 bb production, 2.769 bb total supplies, 950 mb exports, 125 mb feed & residual use, 2.095 bb total
use, 674 mb ending stocks, 32.17% S/U, & $5.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
June 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. June 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On June 10th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its June 2016 Crop
Production report – containing U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage, yield and production forecasts for 2016 –
with information specific to the 2016 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat, soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and
white winter (WW) wheat crops.
The NASS 2016 U.S. winter wheat production forecast was derived by USDA using a combination of a) an
objective yield survey, and b) a farmer operator survey – both conducted during the May 25 – June 7 period.
The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 states that accounted for 68% of 2015 U.S. winter wheat
production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data, and to seek
permission to randomly locate sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. Projected biological yields were
calculated from these farmer plots – assessing number of wheat stalks, heads in late boot stage, and the
number of emerged heads to develop a count of the number of heads that would be harvested. These same
plots had been originally surveyed in late April – early May to monitor wheat development and update the
USDA’s yield projections on a plot‐by‐plot basis, and will be revisited again on a monthly basis through and
after harvest – to eventually obtain estimates of 2016 wheat harvest losses.
The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 4,500 wheat producers representing all
major U.S. wheat producing areas. Producers were contacted by a combination of mail correspondence,
internet and personal interviews, and were asked about likely wheat yields on their farms in 2016.
On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) also released its June 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “old crop” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.
The “old crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2015 and lasted through 5/31/2016, with
“new crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 6/1/2016 and continuing through 5/31/2017.
However, more current farmer survey‐based information on 2016 planted and harvested acreage for U.S.
wheat and other major and minor crops will be made available by USDA NASS in its’ June 30th 2016 Acreage
report. The findings of the USDA 2016 Acreage report will provide information from surveys of nearly 70,000
U.S. farm operators that were conducted the first two weeks in June 2016, supplemented with historical
planted‐to‐harvested acreage relationships and the historic accuracy of past USDA Acreage report projections.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat JULY & DECEMBER 2016 Futures
Since a low of $4.52 ¾ on April 11, 2016, JULY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Kansas
hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.09 ¼ on April 21st. Then after falling to
lows of $4.41 ¼ on May 11th and 12th, JULY 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures traded higher again to
$4.95 ½ on June 8th before moving lower again to a low of $4.77 ½ on June 21st before closing at
$4.78 on that same day (Figure 1).
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Similarly, since a low of $4.88 on April 11, 2016, DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas hard red winter
wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.45 on April 21st. Then after falling to a low of $4.83 ½
on May 11th, DECEMBER 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures traded sideways then higher again to
$5.35 ½ on June 8th before moving lower again to to a high of $4.34 ½ on June 21st before closing at
$4.35 on that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. JULY 2016 & DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
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June 2, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
tion problems in major world wheat
production areas such the Black Sea Region, China, parts of Europe, and elsewhere, b) ongoing geopolitical
conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that could impact commodity markets, and
c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other commodities from volatile World economies, and financial
and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation that exists in World and U.S. wheat
markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly in spring‐summer 2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – also is a serious negative
factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and
causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made minor changes in its supply‐
demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “old crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion
bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 960 mb million bushels (mb) of food use (down 7 mb), 780
mb of exports (up 5 mb), 140 mb wheat feed use, 1.946 bb of total use (down 2 mb), 978 mb ending stocks (up
2 mb), and 50.24% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 50.09% in April to the highest level since 48.6% in MY
2009/10). The USDA forecast of “old crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. average wheat prices to be $4.90 /bu – the lowest
U.S. wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on the May 10th WASDE and the March
31st Prospective Plantings report, the USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres (ma) –
down 5.085 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.783 ma would be down 4.310 ma vs 2015.
Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 46.7 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.998 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.106 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16), and projected “new crop” MY 2016/17 total use of
2.077 bb (up from 1.946 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16). Given these numbers, the USDA projected “new crop”
MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 1.029 bb (vs 978 mb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 49.52%
S/U (vs 50.24% last year). U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $3.70 to $4.50
Page | 2
(midpoint = $4.10 /bu) – down from $4.90 /bu in “old crop” MY 2015/16. It is assumed by KSU that these
adjusted USDA projections for “New crop” MY 2016/17 is assumed to have a 45% probability of occurring.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand
and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as
USDA, but 1.027 million less acres harvested than the adjusted USDA estimates based on historical percent
harvested‐to‐planted acres relationships. These KSU projections also assume at least a moderation in the high
value of the U.S. dollar, and some improvement in U.S. wheat exports as a result. A) KSU‐Scenario A (Trend
Yield) (35% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0
bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.028 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.031 bb total use, 997 mb ending
stocks, 49.09% S/U, & $4.40 /bu U.S. wheat average price; B) KSU‐Scenario B (Foreign Crop Problems –
Higher U.S. Exports) (10% prob.) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma
harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.028 bb total supplies, 1.100 bb exports, 2.272 bb total use,
756 mb ending stocks, 33.27% S/U, & $5.55 /bu U.S. wheat average price; and C) KSU‐Scenario C (Widespread
2016‐2017 U.S. Crop Problems) (10% prob.) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737
ma harvested, 43.0 bu/ac yield, 1.753 bb production, 2.861 bb total supplies, 900 mb exports, 2.081 bb total
use, 780 mb ending stocks, 37.48% S/U, & $5.30 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. 2015/16
Page | 4
in August, 94.4% ($4.72) on September, 97.4% ($4.87) in October, 87.4% ($4.37 estimate) in November, and a
preliminary estimated low of 87.2% ($4.36) in December 2015.
United States’ wheat prices are moving in an unusual price pattern in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – declining
during the November‐December post‐harvest period rather than following a more normal seasonal sideways‐
to‐upward trend. Weakness in U.S. wheat exports caused by a combination of a) large World wheat supply‐
demand balances, and b) the high value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies, is the primary
cause of this downward price trend in fall‐early winter 2016.
I‐D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid‐July 2011 through
early December 2015 (Figure 3). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade
weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. After
moving lower for a period of time, the index rose again to an even higher high of 95.21 on December 17, 2015.
The latest recorded value of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 94.62 on Friday, December 18, 2015.
Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM) …
December 21, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
0a‐b).
During the September 1st through December 13th period China bought and physically imported only 12.5
mb of U.S. soybeans, down 98.1% from 660.7 mb in China purchases from the U.S. for the same period a year
earlier. Massive switching of soybean import sources has occurred among the World’s soybean purchasing
countries, with China purchasing almost exclusively from Argentina and Brazil at higher prices in order to avoid
buying soybeans from the U.S.. This action on the part of the Chinese drove up South American prices, and
Page | 2
caused other countries to then purchas …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
the
daily work routine, other issues could and will change … pertain to land ownership, but other issues would involve the … These materials are designed solely to raise issues and serve as a guideline for the reader’s research. These materials are presented for the purpose of education. Every taxpayer has a distinct set of facts and circumstances that makes it impossible to give solutions other than a general guideline approach.
• …