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August 30, 2024
Production Publications
Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and … Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and …
October 10, 2024
Kansas Landowners Conference
by the landlord. Commodity prices,
crop yields and pasture … a decrease in crop market prices and high input
costs
– …
May 9, 2025
Production Publications
Conference on
Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and … Conference on
Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and …
June 17, 2025
Recent Videos
2026
Milli
on D
ollar
s
The bottom line
2024, 2025, and 2026 farm income outlooks are comparable after an “accrual adjustment” to ARA‐authorized payments
Livestock receipts in 2025 are well above historic levels due to high prices
• Feed expenses are at the 20‐year average
Crop receipts are below the 20‐year average
• …
August 1, 2025
Breakout Sessions
Economics
Kuang & Xiang, 2021; Adjemian et al., 2023; Thayer et al., 2021; Liu et al., 2021; Bown (2021)
Soybean Trade With China
July 2018: China imposes 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans
U.S. soybean exports to China fell 74% in 2018
Price fell $0.74/bu at Gulf, Br … fell $0.74/bu at Gulf, Brazil price rose $0.97/bu
U.S. issued $8.5B in MFP aid (estimated damage $3.1B)
Market adjusted after 5 months, but exports didn’t recover until late 2019
Agricultural …
March 1, 2024
Crop Insurance Papers
Average Payouts- per acre Prices and Yields - guarantees and … actual
ARC PLC SCO
Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Actual Actual Actual/MYA Reference Actual/MYA Estimated Projected Actual Actual
ARC ARC PLC Net PLC + Yield Yield Price Yield YieldPrice Yield …
August 26, 2009
Energy
newable fuels
standard requirements, protective ethanol import tariffs, and favorable relationships between
the prices of blended fuels (including ethanol products) and ethanol feedstock (i.e., feedgrains)
during the 2005 through mid 2008 period. The trend in ethanol plant expansion leveled off in
early 2009 because of declining ethanol profitability and due to expansion of U.S. ethanol
production to levels approaching the U.S. government’s renewable fuels standard mandate in
year 2015 of 15 billion gallons.
This article examines the growth of the U.S. fuel ethanol industry from January 2005 through
July 2009 using data collected on a monthly basis from the Renewable Fuels Association by the
state of Nebraska (www.neo.ne.gov/statshtml). This article’s focus is on growth in plant
numbers, of nameplate plant capacity in production and planned, and growth in estimated
feedgrain use needed to supply these ethanol plants.
Trends in Plant Capacity and Number of Plants
Total nameplate production capacity for United States ethanol plants grew from 3.64 to 12.7
billion gallons from January 2005 through July 2009, an increase of nearly 250% (averaging of
4.6% growth per month) (Figure 1).
After increasing to 12.25 billion gallons in January 2009, the rate of expansion in ethanol
production capacity slowed considerably, averaging less than 1% (0.6%) per month.
The expansion in the number of U.S. ethanol plants had been steady throughout the 2005‐2009
period until December 2008. Challenging economic conditions in the U.S. ethanol industry both
leading into and during the December 2008 through March 2009 period lead to a number of
either temporary or permanent ethanol plant closures. A return to earlier trends in plant
number resumed beginning in April 2009 (Figure 1). The average nameplate capacity of on‐line
U.S. ethanol plants has steadily increased from approximately 45 million gallons per plant in
year 2005 to 65 to 70 million gallons per plant during January – July 2009. A short term spike in
average nameplate ethanol plant capacity occurred during January – March 2009, likely due to
the dynamics of ethanol plant closures, the opening of new plants, etc. (Figure 2).
Trends in Planned Ethanol Plant Construction
The total amount of existing and planned U.S. ethanol industry production capacity never
exceeded the 2015 renewable fuels standard goal of 15 billion gallons (Figure 3). In fact, the
amount of the renewable fuels standard is calculated by the U.S. government on a linearly
trending basis from the current time to year 2015. It is likely that that the sum of total ethanol
production capacity both in place (i.e., already built) and the amount planned (i.e., intended to
be built) was somewhat close to the linear trending U.S. renewable fuels standard at that time.
The lower level of total existing and planned ethanol production capacity that occurred in late
2008 – early 2009 was likely due to changing expectations and prospects for profitability in the
ethanol industry during that time. Since February 2009, total built and planned U.S. ethanol
production capacity has stayed in the range of 14.4 to 14.6 billion gallons, below the renewable
fuels standard of 15.0 billion gallons by 2015.
Total U.S. Feedgrain Use for Fuel Ethanol
U.S. usage of corn or grain sorghum (i.e., feedgrains) as feedstock for fuel ethanol has increased
in a manner mirroring the development of U.S. ethanol production (Figure 4).
Assuming that 1 bushel of corn or grain sorghum produces 2.8 gallons of ethanol, the amount
of feedgrains needed to keep U.S. ethanol plants running at 100% capacity increased from 1.3
billion bushels in January 2005 to 4.535 billion bushels in July 2009. If expansion of U.S.
ethanol production remains at or slightly below the 15 billion gallon fuel standard and is the
efficiency of converting feedgrains to ethanol remains the same, then U.S. feedgrain use (both
corn and grain sorghum together) would be approximately 4.5+ billion bushels.
Trends in Plant Capacity and Plant Numbers by State
Trends by state in ethanol plant capacity (Figure 5) and plant numbers (Figure 6) mirror those
for the overall United States. As of July 2009, the top 9 rated states in terms of ethanol plant
capacity, with number of plants and average plant capacity listed are as follows (Table 1):
Table 1. State Level Ethanol Production Capacity, # of Plants, and Average Capacity per Plant
1 …
August 14, 2016
Breakout session presentations
periods of low
commodity prices, as well as financial and … 28
Lease or Purchase Example: Case IH 9230 Combine
Purchase Price $317,500 Down Payment 20%Interest Rate … periods of low
commodity prices, as well as financial and …
Breakout Sessions
fluctuations in commodity prices, weather as
well as other …
December 1, 2016
Animal Health
chain impacts
– Consumer price changes
– Trade changes
– …