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September 1, 2022
2022 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Who has the interest, willingness, and ability to own and operate the farm/ranch? • What role will other family members play in the transition?
Begin family collaboration
• … Option 1: In person family meeting– Option 2: Individual re … Option 2: Individual reflection with questionnaires, followed by a family meeting
Focus on informing before deciding continued• …
June 2, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
tion problems in major world wheat
production areas such the Black Sea Region, China, parts of Europe, and elsewhere, b) ongoing geopolitical
conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea region that could impact commodity markets, and
c) spillover impacts into grain markets and other commodities from volatile World economies, and financial
and currency markets. Even so, the “large crop‐over supply” situation that exists in World and U.S. wheat
markets continues to have a strong prevailing negative influence on World wheat prices.
It is likely that significant World wheat production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in
coming weeks and months in order to have wheat prices recover significantly in spring‐summer 2016. Ongoing
strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate – although it has been weakening recently – also is a serious negative
factor that is limiting U.S. wheat exports, raising U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and
causing sharply lower U.S. wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Old Crop” MY 2015/16: The USDA made minor changes in its supply‐
demand and price projections for U.S. wheat in the “old crop” 2015/16 marketing year – with 2.052 billion
bushels (bb) production, 2.924 bb total supplies, 960 mb million bushels (mb) of food use (down 7 mb), 780
mb of exports (up 5 mb), 140 mb wheat feed use, 1.946 bb of total use (down 2 mb), 978 mb ending stocks (up
2 mb), and 50.24% ending‐stocks‐to‐use (up from 50.09% in April to the highest level since 48.6% in MY
2009/10). The USDA forecast of “old crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. average wheat prices to be $4.90 /bu – the lowest
U.S. wheat marketing year average price since $4.87 /bu in MY 2009/10.
USDA U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Based on the May 10th WASDE and the March
31st Prospective Plantings report, the USDA projected 2016 U.S. wheat plantings of 49.559 million acres (ma) –
down 5.085 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 42.783 ma would be down 4.310 ma vs 2015.
Based on projected 2016 U.S. wheat yields of 46.7 bu/ac (up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015), 2016 U.S. wheat
production is projected to be 1.998 bb (vs 2.052 bb in 2015), with “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of
3.106 bb (up from 2.924 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16), and projected “new crop” MY 2016/17 total use of
2.077 bb (up from 1.946 bb in “old crop” MY 2015/16). Given these numbers, the USDA projected “new crop”
MY 2016/17 ending stocks of 1.029 bb (vs 978 mb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 49.52%
S/U (vs 50.24% last year). U.S. wheat average prices are projected to be in the range of $3.70 to $4.50
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(midpoint = $4.10 /bu) – down from $4.90 /bu in “old crop” MY 2015/16. It is assumed by KSU that these
adjusted USDA projections for “New crop” MY 2016/17 is assumed to have a 45% probability of occurring.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand
and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming the same 2016 planted acreage as
USDA, but 1.027 million less acres harvested than the adjusted USDA estimates based on historical percent
harvested‐to‐planted acres relationships. These KSU projections also assume at least a moderation in the high
value of the U.S. dollar, and some improvement in U.S. wheat exports as a result. A) KSU‐Scenario A (Trend
Yield) (35% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma harvested, 46.0
bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.028 bb total supplies, 850 mb exports, 2.031 bb total use, 997 mb ending
stocks, 49.09% S/U, & $4.40 /bu U.S. wheat average price; B) KSU‐Scenario B (Foreign Crop Problems –
Higher U.S. Exports) (10% prob.) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737 ma
harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield, 1.920 bb production, 3.028 bb total supplies, 1.100 bb exports, 2.272 bb total use,
756 mb ending stocks, 33.27% S/U, & $5.55 /bu U.S. wheat average price; and C) KSU‐Scenario C (Widespread
2016‐2017 U.S. Crop Problems) (10% prob.) assumes for “new crop” MY 2016/17: 49.559 ma planted, 41.737
ma harvested, 43.0 bu/ac yield, 1.753 bb production, 2.861 bb total supplies, 900 mb exports, 2.081 bb total
use, 780 mb ending stocks, 37.48% S/U, & $5.30 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
U.S. 2015/16
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in August, 94.4% ($4.72) on September, 97.4% ($4.87) in October, 87.4% ($4.37 estimate) in November, and a
preliminary estimated low of 87.2% ($4.36) in December 2015.
United States’ wheat prices are moving in an unusual price pattern in “new crop” MY 2015/16 – declining
during the November‐December post‐harvest period rather than following a more normal seasonal sideways‐
to‐upward trend. Weakness in U.S. wheat exports caused by a combination of a) large World wheat supply‐
demand balances, and b) the high value of the U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies, is the primary
cause of this downward price trend in fall‐early winter 2016.
I‐D. U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index has been generally trending higher from mid‐July 2011 through
early December 2015 (Figure 3). After an index value of 75.69 on July 1, 2014 the calculated U.S. trade
weighted dollar index trended up to a high of 93.37 on Friday, February 13, 2015 – an increase of 23.4%. After
moving lower for a period of time, the index rose again to an even higher high of 95.21 on December 17, 2015.
The latest recorded value of the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index was 94.62 on Friday, December 18, 2015.
Figure 3. Daily U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index – Major Currencies (DTWEXM) …
October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
area for erosion control or other purposes related to conservation … full indemnity if both crops meet certain requirements outlined … producers will still need to meet the …
December 21, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
0a‐b).
During the September 1st through December 13th period China bought and physically imported only 12.5
mb of U.S. soybeans, down 98.1% from 660.7 mb in China purchases from the U.S. for the same period a year
earlier. Massive switching of soybean import sources has occurred among the World’s soybean purchasing
countries, with China purchasing almost exclusively from Argentina and Brazil at higher prices in order to avoid
buying soybeans from the U.S.. This action on the part of the Chinese drove up South American prices, and
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caused other countries to then purchas …
June 19, 2023
Ag Law Issues
how
can one state override other states’ rules? Involved … dictate ag practices
in other states – it’s the topic … Congress--restricts state power. In other words, the grant of federal …
November 1, 2008
Agribusiness Papers
the value they add to each other’s solutions when addressing … effectively collaborate with each other in our attempts to become … created any biases
in the other variables. The results showed …
September 23, 2016
Risk Management Strategies
the contract if the farmer meets all of the
qualifications … benefits from YE and the other 9 units don’t benefit from …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
Supply Chain Relationships in other Industries … trade. Furthermore, several other agricultural
industries … emanated, in part, to better meet evolving
customer demands …
September 4, 2017
Section 5: Long-Range Planning (FINLRB)
Jan. 1 - Dec. 31, 2016, or other tax year beginning , 2016 … Gget a W-2,
14 14Other gains or (losses). Attach … 21 21Other income. List type and amount
22 …