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November 21, 2011
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
KFSA Directors & Management Meeting
Hutchinson, KS
November … that could build on each other:
1. Interest Rates – … KFSA Directors & Management Meeting
Hutchinson, KS
November …
Price Risk Publications
selling hedge
that will likely meet your pricing objectives.
1 … and
basis risk could mean not meeting your selling
hedge pricing … educational purposes. All other rights reserved. In each …
July 15, 2021
Kansas agriculture. These meetings
will be a place where agriculture … 1,500/hd/day
• Many other announcements
Agricultural … Kansas agriculture. These meetings
will be a place where agriculture …
September 1, 2022
2022 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Who has the interest, willingness, and ability to own and operate the farm/ranch? • What role will other family members play in the transition?
Begin family collaboration
• … Option 1: In person family meeting– Option 2: Individual re … Option 2: Individual reflection with questionnaires, followed by a family meeting
Focus on informing before deciding continued• …
August 1, 2009
KFMA Newsletters
your funeral, burial, and
other final plans. This information … document that allows for someone other than
yourself to make decisions … in order to give
someone other than a court of law the authority …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Positive Corn Market Factors
However, a number of factors are providing positive support for U.S. corn supply‐demand and price
prospects – including strong exports, developing harvest delays from wet fall weather, ongoing strong ethanol
usage, and uncertain South American corn production prospects in in 2019.
Strong U.S. Corn Exports: In recent weeks, U.S. corn export shipments have been strong – above the pace
needed to meet the USDA’s October 11th …
June 19, 2023
Ag Law Issues
how
can one state override other states’ rules? Involved … dictate ag practices
in other states – it’s the topic … Congress--restricts state power. In other words, the grant of federal …
October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
area for erosion control or other purposes related to conservation … full indemnity if both crops meet certain requirements outlined … producers will still need to meet the …
May 22, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
situation in MY 2007/08 compares to projections of 258.3
mmt ending stocks and 35.1% ending stocks‐to‐use projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18. The present “large
crop‐over supply” situation in World and U.S. wheat markets have a prevailing negative influence on U.S. and
World wheat prices.
However, the broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be
“obscuring” at least a couple of other important market issues. First, while the quantity of wheat available in
the World is plentiful, the available supply of high protein milling wheat is less so. This factor helps exports of
U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat (higher protein – good quality) relative to World wheat export competitors.
Second, while the aggregate supply of wheat in World markets has grown, the supply of wheat in the “World
Less China” is projected to have actually “contracted” or “diminished” in “next crop” MY 2017/18. “World Less
China” wheat percent stocks‐to‐use have declined to the tightest level since at least MY 2008/09 when
average U.S. wheat cash prices averaged $5.70 /bu. If this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to
noticeably tighter global supplies of available exportable wheat occurring in coming months, it would likely
have a positive impact U.S. wheat market prices in “next crop” MY 2017/18.
However, unless there is a change in the broader, overriding focus of the World wheat market away from
aggregate global supplies to available “World Less China” supplies – it is likely that significant World wheat
production problems and/or trade disruptions would need to occur in year 2017 in order to have wheat prices
recover significantly in later 2017. Also, ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar exchange rate continues to be a
negative factor limiting the competitive affordability of U.S. wheat exports in World markets. These factors
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together have resulted in higher U.S. wheat ending stocks and % ending stocks‐to‐use, and have caused U.S.
and Kansas wheat cash prices to still be only $0.30 /bu above the marketing loan rate in many Kansas locations
in mid‐May 2017 (after earlier having to fallen below loan rates in Fall 2016).
USDA U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: The USDA released their grain
market supply‐demand and price projections for “next crop” MY 2017/18 in the May 10th World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. United States’ wheat plantings are projected to be 46.059
million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in “current” MY 2016/17. Harvested acres are forecast to be 38.500
ma (83.59% harvested‐to‐planted) – down from 43.890 ma a year ago. The 2017 U.S. average wheat yield is
projected at 47.2 bu/ac, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/acre.
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2017 is forecast to be 1.820 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015.
Projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies are 3.105 bb (down from 3.400 bb in “current” MY 2016/17),
with total use of 2.191 bb (down from 2.241 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
The USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks to be 914 million bushels (mb) (vs 1.159 bb a year
ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 41.7% S/U (vs 51.7% last year and 50.0% the previous year). United
States’ wheat prices are projected to average $4.25 /bu – up from $3.90 in “current” MY 2016/17, but down
from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16, and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed by Kansas State University that
these adjusted USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Trend Yield” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18 that the
following occurs. It is assumed that there will be 46.059 ma planted, 82.50% harvested‐to‐planted, 37.999 ma
harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.786 bb production, 3.070 bb total supplies, 1.000 bb exports, 180 mb feed
& residual use, 2.200 bb total use, 870 mb ending stocks, 39.6% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (15% probability) assumes the following for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. Planted acres of 46.059 ma are associated with 39.334 ma harvested (82.50% harvested‐
to‐planted), 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.786 bb production, 3.070 bb total supplies, 1.150 bb exports, 180 mb
feed & residual use, 2.350 bb total use, 720 mb ending stocks, 30.6% S/U, & $5.10 /bu U.S. wheat average
price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Short U.S. Wheat Crop” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Planted acres of 46.059 ma, 80.60% harvested‐to‐planted, 37.124 ma harvested, 40.0 bu/ac low
yield, 1.485 bb production, 2.769 bb total supplies, 950 mb exports, 125 mb feed & residual use, 2.095 bb total
use, 674 mb ending stocks, 32.17% S/U, & $5.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
June 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
I‐A. June 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On June 10th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its June 2016 Crop
Production report – containing U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage, yield and production forecasts for 2016 –
with information specific to the 2016 U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat, soft red winter (SRW) wheat, and
white winter (WW) wheat crops.
The NASS 2016 U.S. winter wheat production forecast was derived by USDA using a combination of a) an
objective yield survey, and b) a farmer operator survey – both conducted during the May 25 – June 7 period.
The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 states that accounted for 68% of 2015 U.S. winter wheat
production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data, and to seek
permission to randomly locate sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. Projected biological yields were
calculated from these farmer plots – assessing number of wheat stalks, heads in late boot stage, and the
number of emerged heads to develop a count of the number of heads that would be harvested. These same
plots had been originally surveyed in late April – early May to monitor wheat development and update the
USDA’s yield projections on a plot‐by‐plot basis, and will be revisited again on a monthly basis through and
after harvest – to eventually obtain estimates of 2016 wheat harvest losses.
The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 4,500 wheat producers representing all
major U.S. wheat producing areas. Producers were contacted by a combination of mail correspondence,
internet and personal interviews, and were asked about likely wheat yields on their farms in 2016.
On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) also released its June 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, “old crop” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years.
The “old crop” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2015 and lasted through 5/31/2016, with
“new crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 6/1/2016 and continuing through 5/31/2017.
However, more current farmer survey‐based information on 2016 planted and harvested acreage for U.S.
wheat and other major and minor crops will be made available by USDA NASS in its’ June 30th 2016 Acreage
report. The findings of the USDA 2016 Acreage report will provide information from surveys of nearly 70,000
U.S. farm operators that were conducted the first two weeks in June 2016, supplemented with historical
planted‐to‐harvested acreage relationships and the historic accuracy of past USDA Acreage report projections.
I‐B. CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat JULY & DECEMBER 2016 Futures
Since a low of $4.52 ¾ on April 11, 2016, JULY 2016 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Kansas
hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.09 ¼ on April 21st. Then after falling to
lows of $4.41 ¼ on May 11th and 12th, JULY 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures traded higher again to
$4.95 ½ on June 8th before moving lower again to a low of $4.77 ½ on June 21st before closing at
$4.78 on that same day (Figure 1).
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Similarly, since a low of $4.88 on April 11, 2016, DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas hard red winter
wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.45 on April 21st. Then after falling to a low of $4.83 ½
on May 11th, DECEMBER 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures traded sideways then higher again to
$5.35 ½ on June 8th before moving lower again to to a high of $4.34 ½ on June 21st before closing at
$4.35 on that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. JULY 2016 & DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …